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1 – 10 of over 2000This paper examines the reaction of the Egyptian stock market to two substantial devaluations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) in 2022 and tests the informational efficiency of the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the reaction of the Egyptian stock market to two substantial devaluations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) in 2022 and tests the informational efficiency of the Egyptian market.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses the event study framework to analyze the significance and direction of abnormal returns of the leading index of the Egyptian stock market (EGX30) on and around the devaluation days. It employs both the constant mean model and the market model to estimate the normal returns of the EGX30. Additionally, the paper uses data on two equity indices, one global and one for emerging markets, as benchmarks for normal returns.
Findings
The paper finds that the Egyptian stock market experienced significant positive abnormal returns on the devaluation days of the EGP in March and October of 2022, indicating a positive market reaction to the devaluation. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the Egyptian market may not be informationally efficient as significant positive abnormal returns were observed two weeks before and two weeks after the devaluation day, suggesting news leaks and delayed reactions, respectively.
Originality/value
This study is the first to examine the impact of the recent two devaluations of the EGP in 2022 on the Egyptian stock market. It complements existing literature by analyzing the immediate market reaction to two consecutive devaluations in an African country. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the efficiency of the Egyptian market in processing information related to exchange rates.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine whether real exchange rate devaluation improves the current account balance of four highly indebted low-income countries of East Africa.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether real exchange rate devaluation improves the current account balance of four highly indebted low-income countries of East Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
The pooled mean group (PMG) approach is used for panel data from four countries over the period 1970–2016. The paper also applied bound testing and ARDL model for time-series data from individual sample countries.
Findings
The panel PMG/ARDL estimation result reveals that real exchange rate devaluation has no significant impact on the current account balance, both in the short and long run. However, the time-series analysis using the bound testing and restricted ARDL estimation suggests that real exchange rate devaluation improves the current account balance in the long run for only Ethiopia. The overall empirical results reveal that the current account balance would improve with the rising domestic income while it deteriorates with increasing foreign income and external indebtedness in the long run.
Originality/value
The paper is original.
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The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the…
Abstract
The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the economy is dominated by primary exports, by the importance of the domestic bond market and bank credit, by the extent of existing restriction in foreign exchange and financial markets, by the presence or absence of persistent high inflation, and by the existence or non‐existence of an active international market in the country's currency. Eighteen observations and maxims on stabilisation policy are tentatively drawn (pp. 64–8) from the material reviewed, and the maxims are partly summarised (pp. 69–71) in a schematic assignment, with variations, of targets to instruments.
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Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro, John S.L. McCombie and Gilberto Tadeu Lima
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature on demand-driven Keynesian growth in open economies by developing a formal model that combines Dixon and Thirlwall’s…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature on demand-driven Keynesian growth in open economies by developing a formal model that combines Dixon and Thirlwall’s (1975) export-led growth model and Thirlwall’s (1979) balance-of-payments constrained growth model into a more general specification. Then, based on the model developed in this paper, the authors analyse more broadly some important issues concerning the net impact of currency depreciation on the short-run growth.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors build upon Dixon and Thirlwall’s (1975) export-led growth model and Thirlwall’s (1979) balance-of-payments constrained growth model in order to develop the theoretical framework. The authors also run numerical simulations to illustrate the net impact of devaluation on the short-run growth rate in different scenarios.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the net impact of currency devaluation on growth can go either way, depending on some structural conditions such as the average share of imported intermediate inputs in prime costs of domestic firms and the institutional capacity of trade unions to set nominal wages through the bargaining process. The model also shows that the effectiveness of a competitive real exchange rate to promote growth is higher in countries where the share of labour in domestic income is also higher.
Research limitations/implications
This paper provides a coherent formal starting-point for further theoretical developments on the interrelatedness between currency devaluation, income distribution and growth. These findings provide empirically testable hypothesis for future research.
Originality/value
The present study proposes an alternative formal solution for the theoretical problem of imposing a balance-of-payments constraint on the process of cumulative causation often incorporated in Kaldorian growth models. In terms of policy, the framework sheds further light on the relevance of income distribution and the labour market institutional framework for the dynamics of the exchange rate pass-through mechanism and allows us to map out related conditions under which currency devaluation can promote growth.
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Hsin-Hsien Liu and Hsuan-Yi Chou
Inaction inertia is the phenomenon in which people are less likely to accept an opportunity after having previously missed a relatively superior one. This research explores how…
Abstract
Purpose
Inaction inertia is the phenomenon in which people are less likely to accept an opportunity after having previously missed a relatively superior one. This research explores how framing quantity promotions as either a freebie (e.g. “buy 1, get 1 free”) or a price bundle (e.g. “buy 2, get 50% off”) influences inaction inertia. Relevant mediators are also identified.
Design/methodology/approach
Three experiments, two using imaginary scenarios and one using an incentive-compatible design, test the hypotheses.
Findings
Consumers who miss a freebie quantity promotion express higher inaction inertia than consumers who miss a price bundle promotion. The cause of this difference is higher perceived regret and greater devaluation that result from missing a superior freebie (vs price bundle) promotion.
Research limitations/implications
Future research should examine how factors influencing perceived regret and devaluation moderate the quantity promotional frame effect on inaction inertia.
Practical implications
The findings provide insights into which quantity promotional frames practitioners should use to reduce inaction inertia.
Originality/value
This study's comprehensive theoretical framework predicts quantity promotional frame effects on inaction inertia and identifies relevant internal mechanisms. The findings are evidence that inaction inertia is caused by both perceived regret and devaluation in certain contexts. Furthermore, this study identifies the conditions in which a price bundle promotional frame is more beneficial than a freebie promotional frame.
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Ching‐chong Lai and Wen‐ya Chang
Analyses how the status of balance of payments follows se\ill\fulfilling expectations of currency devaluation. It is found that beforea currency devaluation, whether the economy…
Abstract
Analyses how the status of balance of payments follows se\ill\ fulfilling expectations of currency devaluation. It is found that before a currency devaluation, whether the economy w\ill\ experience a balance‐of‐payments surplus or deficit crucial depends on the degree of capital mobility.
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Some structuralists argue that devaluations are contractionary, andthat exports and imports are inelastic to exchange rate movements. Asimultaneous model of exports, imports…
Abstract
Some structuralists argue that devaluations are contractionary, and that exports and imports are inelastic to exchange rate movements. A simultaneous model of exports, imports, capital flows and output is used to show that in Peru only the first proposition is correct. Consequently, external equilibrium and fast growth are incompatible. Introducing Williamson′s FEER suggests that there are wild fluctuations of actual rates around FEER, and a long‐term tendency of the latter to increase. Prudent policies should seek short‐run stability and a lower FEER in the long term; it is not devaluations but their contractionary effect which should be avoided.
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The currency‐political landslide started, on the 18th September, 1949, by the devaluation of the pound sterling, proves for the Swiss tourist traffic to be one of the most…
Abstract
The currency‐political landslide started, on the 18th September, 1949, by the devaluation of the pound sterling, proves for the Swiss tourist traffic to be one of the most important, if not the most momentous event since the end of the last war. So far it has not been possible to estimate, to their full extent, what the consequences of all these adjustments of foreign currencies would be for the Swiss tourist traffic. A glance at the situation prevailing before the devaluation may somewhat facilitate an appreciation of the future and of the attitude to be adopted.
Notes that macro‐economic policy faces the same challenges in both developing and post‐socialist economies: to reduce inflation while achieving or maintaining stable economic…
Abstract
Notes that macro‐economic policy faces the same challenges in both developing and post‐socialist economies: to reduce inflation while achieving or maintaining stable economic growth. Moreover, there are developing countries like Argentina which succeeded in overcoming a type of institutional chaos which comes quite close to what is to be observed in post‐socialist countries. By looking at the theoretical concept and by its implementation in Argentina, examines the main advantages and flaws of an exchange rate anchor. Shows that this is a high risk strategy for post‐socialist countries which needs radical complementary reforms in order to be effective and to minimize risks. Suggests that credibility cannot be imported.
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Operating exposure to foreign exchange risk and exchange rate pass-through are investigated in the context of a Cournot model of equilibrium in a homogeneous product market, i.e…
Abstract
Purpose
Operating exposure to foreign exchange risk and exchange rate pass-through are investigated in the context of a Cournot model of equilibrium in a homogeneous product market, i.e. an industry populated by N firms, which compete exclusively on the basis of quantities produced/marketed and where each firm optimizes its decision based on expectations regarding the actions of its rivals that in fact eventuate. Whereas one firm sources its product domestically, the remaining N−1 firms source their product in a foreign country. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
By invoking two simplifying assumptions, namely, constant marginal cost functions and a linear inverted demand curve, and then deriving the Cournot equilibrium, this paper obtains clear implications regarding the effect of a currency devaluation on the competitive positions of the industry’s N constituent firms as well as the pass-through effect on the industry price.
Findings
The N−1 firms that source the homogeneous product from a foreign country, which experiences a devaluation, gain, while the single competing firm that sources domestically loses, both market share and profit. Formulas are derived which elucidate this intuitive result. The extent of exchange rate pass-through on the resulting equilibrium price is gauged to be incomplete, consistent with extant empirical evidence. As the number of firms increases, the extent of exchange rate pass-through likewise increases, approaching a limiting situation of complete pass-through.
Originality/value
This paper is the first to examine the issues of exchange rate operating exposure and pass-through in the context of a Cournot model of competition, under the indicated two simplifying assumptions.
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