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Demand foresting significantly impacts supply chain (SC) design and recovery planning. The more accurate the demand forecast, the better the recovery plan and the more resilient the SC. Given the paucity of research about machine learning (ML) applications and the pharmaceutical industry’s need for disruptive techniques, this study aims to investigate the applicability and effect of ML algorithms on demand forecasting. More specifically, the study identifies machine learning algorithms applicable to demand forecasting and assess the forecasting accuracy of using ML in the pharmaceutical SC.

This research used a single-case explanatory methodology. The exploratory approach examined the study’s objective and the acquisition of information technology impact. In this research, three experimental designs were carried out to test training data partitioning, apply ML algorithms and test different ranges of exclusion factors. The Konstanz Information Miner platform was used in this research.

Based on the analysis, this study could show that the most accurate training data partition was 80%, with random forest and simple tree outperforming other algorithms regarding demand forecasting accuracy. The improvement in demand forecasting accuracy ranged from 10% to 41%.

This study provides practical and theoretical insights into the importance of applying disruptive techniques such as ML to improve the resilience of the pharmaceutical supply design in such a disruptive time.

The finding of this research contributes to the limited knowledge about ML applications in demand forecasting. This is manifested in the knowledge advancement about the different ML algorithms applicable in demand forecasting and their effectiveness. Besides, the study at hand offers guidance for future research in expanding and analyzing the applicability and effectiveness of ML algorithms in the different sectors of the SC.

Demand forecast methodologies have been studied extensively to improve operations in e-commerce. However, every forecast inevitably contains errors, and this may result in a disproportionate impact on operations, particularly in the dynamic nature of fulfilling orders in e-commerce. This paper aims to quantify the impact that forecast error in order demand has on order picking, the most costly and complex operations in e-order fulfilment, in order to enhance the application of the demand forecast in an e-fulfilment centre.

The paper presents a Gaussian regression based mathematical method that translates the error of forecast accuracy in order demand to the performance fluctuations in e-order fulfilment. In addition, the impact under distinct order picking methodologies, namely order batching and wave picking. As described.

A structured model is developed to evaluate the impact of demand forecast error in order picking performance. The findings in terms of global results and local distribution have important implications for organizational decision-making in both long-term strategic planning and short-term daily workforce planning.

Earlier research examined demand forecasting methodologies in warehouse operations. And order picking and examining the impact of error in demand forecasting on order picking operations has been identified as a research gap. This paper contributes to closing this research gap by presenting a mathematical model that quantifies impact of demand forecast error into fluctuations in order picking performance.

This paper aims to empirically analyze how adaptive collaboration in supply chain management impacts demand forecast accuracy in short life-cycle products, depending on collaboration intensity, product life-cycle stage, retailer type and product category.

The authors assembled a data set of forecasts and sales of 169 still-camera models, made by the same manufacturer and sold by three different retailers in France over five years. Collaboration intensity, coded by collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment level, was used to analyze the main effects and specific interaction effects of all variables using ANOVA and ordered feature evaluation analysis (OFEA).

The findings lend empirical support to the long-standing assumption that supply chain collaboration intensity increases demand forecast accuracy and that product maturation also increases forecast accuracy even in short life-cycle products. Furthermore, the findings show that it is particularly the lack of collaboration that causes negative effects on forecast accuracy, while positive interaction effects are only found for life cycle stage and product category.

Investment in adaptive supply chain collaboration is shown to increase demand forecast accuracy. However, the choice of collaboration intensity should account for life cycle stage, retailer type and product category.

This paper provides empirical support for the adaptive collaboration concept, exploring not only the actual benefits but also the way it is achieved in the context of innovative products with short life cycles. The authors used a real-world data set and pushed its statistical analysis to a new level of detail using OFEA.

The impact of demand fluctuation during crisis events is crucial to the dynamic pricing and revenue management tactics of the hospitality industry. The purpose of this paper is to improve the accuracy of hotel demand forecast during periods of crisis or volatility, taking the 2019 social unrest in Hong Kong as an example.

Crisis severity, approximated by social media data, is combined with traditional time-series models, including SARIMA, ETS and STL models. Models with and without the crisis severity intervention are evaluated to determine under which conditions a crisis severity measurement improves hotel demand forecasting accuracy.

Crisis severity is found to be an effective tool to improve the forecasting accuracy of hotel demand during crisis. When the market is volatile, the model with the severity measurement is more effective to reduce the forecasting error. When the time of the crisis lasts long enough for the time series model to capture the change, the performance of traditional time series model is much improved. The finding of this research is that the incorporating social media data does not universally improve the forecast accuracy. Hotels should select forecasting models accordingly during crises.

The originalities of the study are as follows. First, this is the first study to forecast hotel demand during a crisis which has valuable implications for the hospitality industry. Second, this is also the first attempt to introduce a crisis severity measurement, approximated by social media coverage, into the hotel demand forecasting practice thereby extending the application of big data in the hospitality literature.

Incorporating dynamic spatial effects exhibits considerable potential in improving the accuracy of forecasting tourism demands. This study aims to propose an innovative deep learning model for capturing dynamic spatial effects.

A novel deep learning model founded on the transformer architecture, called the spatiotemporal transformer network, is presented. This model has three components: the temporal transformer, spatial transformer and spatiotemporal fusion modules. The dynamic temporal dependencies of each attraction are extracted efficiently by the temporal transformer module. The dynamic spatial correlations between attractions are extracted efficiently by the spatial transformer module. The extracted dynamic temporal and spatial features are fused in a learnable manner in the spatiotemporal fusion module. Convolutional operations are implemented to generate the final forecasts.

The results indicate that the proposed model performs better in forecasting accuracy than some popular benchmark models, demonstrating its significant forecasting performance. Incorporating dynamic spatiotemporal features is an effective strategy for improving forecasting. It can provide an important reference to related studies.

The proposed model leverages high-frequency data to achieve accurate predictions at the micro level by incorporating dynamic spatial effects. Destination managers should fully consider the dynamic spatial effects of attractions when planning and marketing to promote tourism resources.

This study incorporates dynamic spatial effects into tourism demand forecasting models by using a transformer neural network. It advances the development of methodologies in related fields.

纳入动态空间效应在提高旅游需求预测的准确性方面具有相当大的潜力。本研究提出了一种捕捉动态空间效应的创新型深度学习模型。

本研究提出了一种基于变压器架构的新型深度学习模型, 称为时空变压器网络。该模型由三个部分组成：时空转换器、空间转换器和时空融合模块。时空转换器模块可有效提取每个景点的动态时间依赖关系。空间转换器模块可有效提取景点之间的动态空间相关性。提取的动态时间和空间特征在时空融合模块中以可学习的方式进行融合。通过卷积运算生成最终预测结果。

结果表明, 与一些流行的基准模型相比, 所提出的模型在预测准确性方面表现更好, 证明了其显著的预测性能。纳入动态时空特征是改进预测的有效策略。它可为相关研究提供重要参考。

所提出的模型利用高频数据, 通过纳入动态空间效应, 在微观层面上实现了准确预测。旅游目的地管理者在规划和营销推广旅游资源时, 应充分考虑景点的动态空间效应。

本研究通过使用变压器神经网络, 将动态空间效应纳入旅游需求预测模型。它推动了相关领域方法论的发展。

La incorporación de efectos espaciales dinámicos ofrece un considerable potencial para mejorar la precisión de la previsión de la demanda turística. Este estudio propone un modelo innovador de aprendizaje profundo para capturar los efectos espaciales dinámicos.

Se presenta un novedoso modelo de aprendizaje profundo basado en la arquitectura transformadora, denominado red de transformador espaciotemporal. Este modelo tiene tres componentes: el transformador temporal, el transformador espacial y los módulos de fusión espaciotemporal. El módulo transformador temporal extrae de manera eficiente las dependencias temporales dinámicas de cada atracción. El módulo transformador espacial extrae eficientemente las correlaciones espaciales dinámicas entre las atracciones. Las características dinámicas temporales y espaciales extraídas se fusionan de manera que se puede aprender en el módulo de fusión espaciotemporal. Se aplican operaciones convolucionales para generar las previsiones finales.

Los resultados indican que el modelo propuesto obtiene mejores resultados en la precisión de las previsiones que algunos modelos de referencia conocidos, lo que demuestra su importante capacidad de previsión. La incorporación de características espaciotemporales dinámicas supone una estrategia eficaz para mejorar las previsiones. Esto puede proporcionar una referencia importante para estudios afines.

El modelo propuesto aprovecha los datos de alta frecuencia para lograr predicciones precisas a nivel micro incorporando efectos espaciales dinámicos. Los gestores de destinos deberían tener plenamente en cuenta los efectos espaciales dinámicos de las atracciones en la planificación y marketing para la promoción de los recursos turísticos.

Este estudio incorpora efectos espaciales dinámicos a los modelos de previsión de la demanda turística mediante el empleo de una red neuronal transformadora. Supone un avance en el desarrollo de metodologías en campos afines.

The production planning problem with fine-grained information has hardly been considered in practice. The purpose of this study is to investigate the data-driven production planning problem when a manufacturer can observe historical demand data with high-dimensional mixed-frequency features, which provides fine-grained information.

In this study, a two-step data-driven optimization model is proposed to examine production planning with the exploitation of mixed-frequency demand data is proposed. First, an Unrestricted MIxed DAta Sampling approach is proposed, which imposes Group LASSO Penalty (GP-U-MIDAS). The use of high frequency of massive demand information is analytically justified to significantly improve the predictive ability without sacrificing goodness-of-fit. Then, integrated with the GP-U-MIDAS approach, the authors develop a multiperiod production planning model with a rolling cycle. The performance is evaluated by forecasting outcomes, production planning decisions, service levels and total cost.

Numerical results show that the key variables influencing market demand can be completely recognized through the GP-U-MIDAS approach; in particular, the selected accuracy of crucial features exceeds 92%. Furthermore, the proposed approach performs well regarding both in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting throughout most of the horizons. Taking the total cost and service level obtained under the actual demand as the benchmark, the mean values of both the service level and total cost differences are reduced. The mean deviations of the service level and total cost are reduced to less than 2.4%. This indicates that when faced with fluctuating demand, the manufacturer can adopt the proposed model to effectively manage total costs and experience an enhanced service level.

Compared with previous studies, the authors develop a two-step data-driven optimization model by directly incorporating a potentially large number of features; the model can help manufacturers effectively identify the key features of market demand, improve the accuracy of demand estimations and make informed production decisions. Moreover, demand forecasting and optimal production decisions behave robustly with shifting demand and different cost structures, which can provide manufacturers an excellent method for solving production planning problems under demand uncertainty.

The purpose of this paper is to solve the problem of low accuracy in new product demand forecasting caused by the absence of historical data and inadequate consideration of influencing factors.

A hybrid new product demand forecasting model combining clustering analysis and deep learning is proposed. Based on the product similarity measurement, the weight of product similarity attributes is realized by using the method of fuzzy clustering-rough set, which provides a basis for the acquisition and collation of historical sales data of similar products and the determination of product similarity. Then the prediction error of Bass model is adjusted based on similarity through a long short-term memory neural network model, where the influencing factors such as product differentiation, seasonality and sales time on demand forecasting are embedded. An empirical example is given to verify the validity and feasibility of the model.

The results emphasize the importance of considering short-term impacts when forecasting new product demand. The authors show that useful information can be mined from similar products in demand forecasting, where the seasonality, product selling cycles and sales dependencies have significant impacts on the new product demand. In addition, they find that even in the peak season of demand, if the selling period has nearly passed the growth cycle, the Bass model may overestimate the product demand, which may mislead the operational decisions if it is ignored.

This study is valuable for showing that with the incorporation of the evaluation method on product similarity, the forecasting model proposed in this paper achieves a higher accuracy in forecasting new product sales.

Given the importance of spatial effects in improving the accuracy of hotel demand forecasting, this study aims to introduce price and online rating, two critical factors influencing hotel demand, as external variables into the model, and capture the spatial and temporal correlation of hotel demand within the region.

For high practical implications, the authors conduct the case study in Xiamen, China, where the hotel industry is prosperous. Based on the daily demand data of 118 hotels before and during the COVID-19 period (from January to June 2019 and from January to June 2021), the authors evaluate the prediction performance of the proposed innovative model, that is, a deep learning-based model, incorporating graph convolutional networks (GCN) and gated recurrent units.

The proposed model simultaneously predicts the daily demand of multiple hotels. It effectively captures the spatial-temporal characteristics of hotel demand. In addition, the features, price and online rating of competing hotels can further improve predictive performance. Meanwhile, the robustness of the model is verified by comparing the forecasting results for different periods (during and before the COVID-19 period).

From a long-term management perspective, long-term observation of market competitors’ rankings and price changes can facilitate timely adjustment of corresponding management measures, especially attention to extremely critical factors affecting forecast demand, such as price. While from a short-term operational perspective, short-term demand forecasting can greatly improve hotel operational efficiency, such as optimizing resource allocation and dynamically adjusting prices. The proposed model not only achieves short-term demand forecasting, but also greatly improves the forecasting accuracy by considering factors related to competitors in the same region.

The originalities of the study are as follows. First, this study represents a pioneering attempt to incorporate demand, price and online rating of other hotels into the forecasting model. Second, integrated deep learning models based on GCN and gated recurrent unit complement existing predictive models using historical data in a methodological sense.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

Product success is contingent on forecasting when a product is needed and how it should be offered. Forecasting accuracy is contingent on the correct forecasting technique. Using supermarket data across two product categories, this chapter shows that using a bevy of forecasting methods improves forecasting accuracy. Accuracy is measured by the mean absolute percentage error. The optimal methods for one consumer goods product may be different than for another. The best model varied from sophisticated, most such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Holt–Winters to a random walk model. Forecasters must be proficient in multiple statistical techniques since the best technique varies within a categories, variety, and product size.