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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2003

Penelope M. Mullen

The last 20 years have seen increasing interest in the use of Delphi in a wide range of health‐care applications. However, this use has been accompanied by attempts to codify and…

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Abstract

The last 20 years have seen increasing interest in the use of Delphi in a wide range of health‐care applications. However, this use has been accompanied by attempts to codify and define a “true Delphi”. Many authors take a narrow view of the purpose of Delphi and/or advocate a single prescriptive approach to the conduct of a Delphi study. However, as early as 1975, Linstone and Turoff pointed to the danger of attempting to define Delphi as one would immediately encounter a study that violated that definition. Through critical examination of some of the controversies and misunderstandings that surround Delphi, this paper aims to dispel some of the myths and demonstrates the wide scope and potential of this versatile approach.

Details

Journal of Health Organization and Management, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7266

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 October 2022

Anna-Greta Nyström and Valtteri Kaartemo

The purpose of this paper is to develop Delphi methodology toward a holistic method for forecasting market change. Delphi methodology experienced its culmination in marketing…

1369

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop Delphi methodology toward a holistic method for forecasting market change. Delphi methodology experienced its culmination in marketing research during the 1970s–1980s, but still has much to offer to both marketing scholars and practitioners in contexts where future market changes are associated with ambiguity and uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

This study revives the Delphi methodology by exemplifying how a recently developed framework on market change can be combined with the Delphi technique for data collection to support forecasting activities and research. The authors demonstrate the benefits of the improved methodology in an empirical study on the impact of the fifth generation of wireless communications technologies (5G) on the Finnish media market.

Findings

The developed methodological approach aids marketing scholars in categorizing and analyzing the data collected for capturing market change; and better guiding experts/respondents to provide holistic projections of future market change. The authors show that using a predefined theoretical framework in combination with the Delphi method for data collection and analysis is beneficial for studying future market change.

Originality/value

This paper develops Delphi methodology and contributes with a novel methodological approach to assessing market change.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 37 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Fernando Naranjo, Larry J. Menor and P. Fraser Johnson

This research proposes and illustrates a conditional view of lean supply chain management (LSCM) based upon the contextual contingent alignment between lean performance objectives…

Abstract

Purpose

This research proposes and illustrates a conditional view of lean supply chain management (LSCM) based upon the contextual contingent alignment between lean performance objectives (i.e. a contextual factor) and supply chain management challenges (i.e. a contingent condition) in the selection of lean approaches (i.e. a contingent event).

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing on the notions of contingency-based practices and strategic fit, the authors’ LSCM reconceptualization jointly considers contextual and contingency factors in specifying what lean approaches to adopt. The authors illustrate the practical relevance of LSCM reconceptualization for the Canadian agri-food industry using the Delphi method.

Findings

The authors highlight that LSCM is founded upon alignment associations between specific lean performance objectives and supply chain challenges as well as their influence on the selection of suitable lean approaches. The empirical illustration shows that those alignment associations do not occur at random, which supports the conditional view of LSCM.

Research limitations/implications

The contextual contingent view of LSCM can inform future scholarly inquiry and can reframe practically relevant middle-range theorization on LSCM.

Practical implications

The Delphi method-derived descriptive model of LSCM provides guidance to managers in the Canadian agri-food sector in identifying suitable lean approaches to adopt given the specific performance objective(s) pursued and supply chain management challenge(s) encountered.

Originality/value

The authors advance scholarly theorization and managerial understanding of LSCM by providing a conditional conceptualization that jointly considers relevant contextual and contingency factors that hitherto have not been examined. In ascribing what lean approach(es) to adopt to the alignment associations influence between lean performance objective(s) pursued and supply chain management challenge(s) encountered, the authors provide compelling conceptual and empirical support for the joint conditional view of LSCM.

Details

International Journal of Operations & Production Management, vol. 43 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2016

Tracy Flanagan, Russell Ashmore, David Banks and Doug MacInnes

– The purpose of this paper is to describe how the classic Delphi method can be adapted and structured to ensure that specific research questions are clearly addressed.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to describe how the classic Delphi method can be adapted and structured to ensure that specific research questions are clearly addressed.

Design/methodology/approach

As part of a larger mixed method project, a modified Delphi study was undertaken to explore factors influencing publication and non-publication of mental health nursing research.

Findings

This paper reports brief findings from the Delphi study. However, its main focus is the methodological issues arising from the Delphi method.

Research limitations/implications

The paper argues that the classic Delphi method can be adapted and structured to ensure that specific research questions are able to be clearly answered. The adaptations are pragmatic in approach and in keeping with the general principles underpinning the Delphi method, while successfully addressing the problems of attrition and previous criticism of homogenous panels.

Originality/value

This paper offers some practical solutions to issue arising from undertaking research using the Delphi method.

Details

Mental Health Review Journal, vol. 21 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1361-9322

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 May 2014

Bernadette Förster, Jonas Keller, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Inga-Lena Darkow

Consumer goods supply chains (SCs) are characterized by continuously changing customer trends. Early detection of these trends is crucial for deriving successful long-term SC…

2569

Abstract

Purpose

Consumer goods supply chains (SCs) are characterized by continuously changing customer trends. Early detection of these trends is crucial for deriving successful long-term SC strategies. The purpose of this paper is to present a systematic process to support decision makers in assessing future-relevant issues and developing strategies.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to contribute to the quality of long-term decision making for SC strategy, we combine strategic issue management (SIM) and corporate foresight methodology. The authors develop a procedure that integrates the Delphi technique and SIM to empirically demonstrate how “Delphi-based SIM” can support SC strategy development.

Findings

The paper demonstrates how to craft a strategy for consumer goods SCs supported by Delphi-based SIM. The authors are able to include and evaluate uncertain and ambivalent future developments. Pertinent strategic issues for the consumer goods SC include: consumer demographics, automated ordering, city supply, and concept stores. For the reference company, five different strategic paths were created and evaluated.

Practical implications

It is challenging for companies to be well prepared for dynamic business environments and to successfully establish a robust SC strategy. The authors develop a systematic Delphi-based SIM for detecting and evaluating signals and integrating them into SC strategy development.

Originality/value

To date, a structured approach to integrate uncertain and ambivalent issues into SC strategy development is missing. With SIM and corporate foresight, the authors provide novel methods for strategy development in the consumer goods SC.

Details

International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, vol. 44 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0960-0035

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 12 February 2024

Lerato Aghimien, Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa and Douglas Aghimien

The workforce management model conceptualised for the effective management of the construction workforce was subjected to expert scrutiny to determine the suitability and…

Abstract

The workforce management model conceptualised for the effective management of the construction workforce was subjected to expert scrutiny to determine the suitability and applicability of the identified practices and their attributed variables to the construction industry. In achieving this, a Delphi approach was adopted using experts from construction organisations in South Africa. These experts comprised workforce management personnel and construction professionals in senior management positions. The data were analysed using appropriate statistical tools such as interquartile deviation, Kendell’s coefficient of concordance, and chi square to determine consensus among these experts. After a two-round Delphi, the seven constructs proposed in the conceptualised workforce management model were adjudged to be important and worthy of adoption by construction organisations seeking to improve workforce management in the current fourth industrial revolution era.

Details

Construction Workforce Management in the Fourth Industrial Revolution Era
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-019-3

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2016

Jens Winkler and Roger Moser

Across country and regional borders firms are faced with the question whether to address individual markets on a stand-alone basis or cooperatively. In order to support such…

Abstract

Purpose

Across country and regional borders firms are faced with the question whether to address individual markets on a stand-alone basis or cooperatively. In order to support such strategic decisions, this paper aims to develop a decision framework accounting for the most relevant market dynamics affecting joint venture (JV) decisions, particularly in the truck industry. Moreover, the authors apply the framework to an expert Delphi and scenario approach to back a Western original equipment manufacturers (OEM’s) JV decision in the truck industry in Russia. Based on country-specific projections structured along the globally applicable decision framework, the authors serve executives’ individual information demand in an institutionally unique emerging market environment.

Design/methodology/approach

Online real-time expert Delphi study; scenario analysis; and expert workshops were used in this study.

Findings

Among other insights, the results predict hard times for Russian OEMs as they will likely face strong foreign competition, leading to decreased sales volumes and market shares. Although some experts doubt the survival of several Russian truck manufacturers, the Delphi sheds light on possible strategic responses, including consolidation, cooperation or focusing on new markets. Based on the Delphi results and an additional expert workshop, we draw multiple scenarios addressing, particularly, uncertain aspects of the industry’s development and their likely impact on the key stakeholder groups.

Originality/value

Although there are some studies following a similar methodological approach as that in this study (von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010; Gnatzy and Moser, 2012), the authors break new ground in developing a JV-dedicated decision framework and applying it to a special emerging market industry setup.

Details

Foresight, vol. 18 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 August 2023

Matthew Ikuabe, Clinton Aigbavboa, Chimay Anumba and Ayodeji Emmanuel Oke

Through its advanced computational capabilities, cyber–physical systems (CPS) proffer solutions to some of the cultural challenges plaguing the effective delivery of facilities…

Abstract

Purpose

Through its advanced computational capabilities, cyber–physical systems (CPS) proffer solutions to some of the cultural challenges plaguing the effective delivery of facilities management (FM) mandates. This study aims to explore the drivers for the uptake of CPS for FM functions using a qualitative approach – the Delphi technique.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the Delphi technique, the study selected experts through a well-defined process entailing a pre-determined set of criteria. The experts gave their opinions in two iterations which were subjected to statistical analyses such as the measure of central tendency and interquartile deviation in ascertaining consensus among the experts and the Mann–Whitney U test in establishing if there is a difference in the opinions given by the experts.

Findings

The study’s findings show that six of the identified drivers of the uptake of CPS for FM were attributed to be of very high significance, while 12 were of high significance. Furthermore, it was revealed that there is no significant statistical difference in the opinions given by experts in professional practice and academia.

Practical implications

The study’s outcome provides the requisite insight into the propelling measures for the uptake of CPS for FM by organisations and, by extension, aiding digital transformation for effective FM delivery.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, evidence from the literature suggests that no study has showcased the drivers of the incorporation of CPS for FM. Hence, this study fills this gap in knowledge by unravelling the significant propelling measures of the integration of CPS for FM functions.

Details

Construction Innovation , vol. 24 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1471-4175

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 June 2018

Ratapol Wudhikarn

The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel managerial approach for improving traditional intellectual capital (IC) management, and its other latter improved approaches, by…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel managerial approach for improving traditional intellectual capital (IC) management, and its other latter improved approaches, by integrating the comprehensive IC model with more reliable decision science methods, including the Delphi technique and the analytic network process. This proposed integration endeavors to resolve the issues of IC management related to intuitive decisions by executives and the lack of information regarding the relationships among the considered elements.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed method was applied to a real case study of a logistics organization. This application is expected to increase the IC study in this field since logistics is identified as an underdeveloped business in the field of IC management. In this study, the proposed method was used to identify the priorities of IC management of the firm.

Findings

The obtained results showed that the method provides a new managerial approach to IC management by conveying the important weights and priorities of the major and minor IC elements of a logistics business. The obtained outcome also confirmed the results of past studies.

Originality/value

This study provides a systematic and scientific decision framework that improves previous IC management approaches. This proposed method conveys a new management approach by including proper decision science methods with the comprehensive IC framework. This hybrid concept has not been explored by previous IC management approaches.

Details

Journal of Intellectual Capital, vol. 19 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1469-1930

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2013

Theresa Schmiedel, Jan vom Brocke and Jan Recker

Business process management (BPM) requires a holistic perspective that includes managing the culture of an organization to achieve objectives of efficient and effective business…

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Abstract

Purpose

Business process management (BPM) requires a holistic perspective that includes managing the culture of an organization to achieve objectives of efficient and effective business processes. Still, the specifics of a BPM‐supportive organizational culture have not been examined so far. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the characteristics of a cultural setting supportive of BPM objectives.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper examines the constituent values of a BPM‐supportive cultural setting through a global Delphi study with BPM experts from academia and practice and explore these values in a cultural value framework.

Findings

The paper empirically identifies and defines four key cultural values supporting BPM, viz., customer orientation, excellence, responsibility, and teamwork. The paper discusses the relationships between these values and identifies a particular challenge in managing these seemingly competing values.

Research limitations/implications

The identification and definition of these values represents a first step towards the operationalization (and empirical analysis) of what has been identified as the concept of BPM culture, i.e. a culture supportive of achieving BPM objectives.

Practical implications

Identifying these cultural values provides the basis for developing an instrument that can measure how far an existing cultural context is supportive of BPM. This, in turn, is fundamental for identifying measures towards achieving a BPM culture as a necessary, yet not sufficient means to obtain BPM success.

Originality/value

The paper examines which cultural values create an environment receptive for BPM and, thus, specifies the important theoretical construct BPM culture. In addition, the paper raises awareness for realizing these values in a BPM context.

Details

Business Process Management Journal, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-7154

Keywords

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