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The purpose of this chapter is to ask and answer the question of what would happen if Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) plant materials were banned. We report on two studies – one with United States only ban and one with a global ban. We used a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), for the analysis. This model has been used in hundreds of published papers on trade, energy, land use, and environmental issues. Our use of the model was to estimate the crop yield benefits for the major GMO crops, and then to convert this to a loss if the GMO traits were banned. We then shocked the GTAP model with the yield losses and estimate economic, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts. We found that losing the GM technology would cause commodity and food prices to increase and also bring about a significant increase in GHG emissions. The increase in emissions is caused by the need to convert forest and pasture to compensate for the lost production. Another interesting conclusion of the global ban study is that economic well-being for the United States, the world’s largest GMO user, actually increases with a ban. Many regions that ban or use little GMO varieties like the European Union, India, China, and Japan all see economic well-being decrease. These counterintuitive results are driven mainly by trade patterns. Therefore GMO technology helps agriculture reduce its carbon footprint. Without this technology, agricultural land-use GHG emissions increase as do food prices. Some groups would like to see GMOs banned and also see GHG emissions fall. You cannot have it both ways.

This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling. It does so not only by contrasting and assessing the different methodological approaches, and the key findings of the simulation exercises, but also by putting the various contributions in a historical perspective. This is necessary because each CGE-based study should be evaluated while keeping in mind when it was realised, since questions, priorities, expectations have been constantly changing during the spreading of the pandemic.

Economic models based on simple rules can result in complex and unpredictable deterministic dynamics with emergent features similar to those of actual economies. I present several such models ranging from cellular automaton and register machines to quantum computation. The additional benefit of such models is displayed by extending them to model political entanglement to determine the impact of allowing majority redistributive voting. In general, the insights obtained from simulating the computations of simple rules can serve as an additional way to study economics, complementing equilibrium, literary, experimental, and empirical approaches. I culminate by presenting a minimal model of economic complexity that generates complex economic growth and diminishing poverty without any parameter fitting, and which, when modified to incorporate political entanglement, generates volatile stagnation and greater poverty.

In this paper, we search to evaluate the systemic risk of the Moroccan banking sector. Indeed, we concentrate on the analysis and the evaluation on transverse dimension of the systemic. From this point of view, two approaches were used. First is based on the estimate on value at risk conditional allowing to measure the systemic importance of each banking institution. In addition, the second approach uses the heteroscedasticity models in order to consider the conditional correlations, making it possible, to measure the dependence between the Moroccan banks and with the whole of the financial system. The results obtained with through these two approaches confirm that ATW, BMCI and the BMCE are the most systemic banks in Moroccan banking system and who can initiate a systemic crisis. On another register and by using the conditional correlations of each bank we built an index of systemic risk. Moreover, a macrofinancial model was developed, connecting the index of the systemic risk and the principal macroeconomic variables. This model affirmed that the contagion dimension of systemic risk is procyclical.

The present chapter throws light on the famous and very important issue of using eco-friendly, pollution free technology, named as ‘green technology’ or ‘green capital’ by developing economies in the sphere of environmental economics by using general equilibrium framework and tries to examine its impact on different polluting and non-polluting sectors of the economy. The present chapter has done so by using the concepts of ‘regime change’ and ‘endogenised green capital’ – these are the unique features of this work. Here, the authors have come across interesting outcomes by encompassing trade liberalisation in the form of international green capital immobility and international green capital mobility and it leads to an expansion of the sector that utilises it.

Evidences show that the annual total of all incidents along with the number of bombing incidents steadily rose through the late 1970s and began a steady decline in the early 1990s. Before the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, the motivation of transnational terrorism was primarily nationalism, separatism, Marxist ideology, and nihilism. The jump in the number of incidents in the early 1980s corresponded to the rise of religious-based fundamentalism. The downward trend in the early 1990s is attributed to the demise of the Soviet Union. A surge in religious fervor and the hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan account for the prevailing high levels of transnational terrorism. Terrorism surely affects the economy as a whole both in terms of domestic and international trade-related parameters. In this chapter we have used a general equilibrium trade model with special emphasis on terrorism activities to capture the impact of international trade on the production system of the assumed stylized developing economy. In this connection, the presence of defense sector dualism to control or defend the domestic economy has been considered from the perspective of terrorism attack, thereby helping to relate defense, terrorism, and trade within a single framework. Apart from these, the terrorism augmented welfare aspect of the said developing economy has also been introduced in this chapter. Overall, we have claimed that the gains from trade in the presence of terrorism augmented externality exclusively depend on the pattern of trade.

The main motivation of the present study is to understand the severity of the effect of health shock on Iran's oil economy and analyze the role of government under these conditions.

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models can show the precise interactions between market decision-makers in the context of general equilibrium. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models.

The results of the survey of hands-on policies scenarios compared to the state of hands-off policy indicate that the effect of government expending shocks on the economy under pandemic disease conditions has much less feedback on macroeconomic variables.

As a proposed policy, it is recommended that the government play a stabilizing role under pandemic disease conditions.

1. There is no study regarding health shock and its economic effects in Iran using DSGE models. Also, in foreign studies, the health shock in an oil economy has not been modeled.

2. The general idea in the present study is how the prevalence of a pandemic infectious disease affects the dynamics of macroeconomic variables.

3. In three different scenarios, according to the persistence of health disaster risk and the deterioration rate of health capital due to this shock, the model is simulated.

4. In modeling pandemic diseases, quarantine hours are considered as part of the total time of individuals.

5. According to the research findings, it is recommended that the government, as a policy-maker, play a stabilizing role under pandemic crises conditions.

There is no study regarding health shock and its economic effects in Iran using DSGE models. Also, in foreign studies, the health shock in an oil economy has not been modeled.

The general idea in the present study is how the prevalence of a pandemic infectious disease affects the dynamics of macroeconomic variables.

In three different scenarios, according to the persistence of health disaster risk and the deterioration rate of health capital due to this shock, the model is simulated.

In modeling pandemic diseases, quarantine hours are considered as part of the total time of individuals.

According to the research findings, it is recommended that the government, as a policy-maker, play a stabilizing role under pandemic crises conditions.

In this paper, we view an individual's annuitization decision as an American style call option whose underlying asset is financial wealth, which controls the distance to annuitization. We then derive a certain threshold of wealth over which the individual is optimal to annuitize all of her wealth. We particularly focus on the effects of liquidity constraints on the individual's optimal annuitization decision, concerning their effects on the optimal investment and consumption strategies. We show that the annuitization decision can be significantly affected by the extent to which individual borrowing is constrained. More specifically, the optimal decision is for the individual to annuitize earlier with the tighter liquidity constrains she is exposed to than initially planned. This is particularly relevant to today's pandemic situation especially with the growing concern about cutting credit limits.

By modelling China’s property price changes and their effect on GDP, this study aims to develop a more general model of the costs and benefits driving price bubbles.

The authors develop a five-sector dynamic model (using data from China and seven other comparator jurisdictions), resulting in a bubble risk factor. The authors then correlate this risk factor with changes in property prices and resulting changes in GDP.

The authors find that economic structures (the way GDP, property prices and other variables change relative to each other) can change during/after a financial crisis. The authors also find that price disequilibria can help predict the risk of a property price fall – which thus reverberates into GDP change.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no dynamic models of price bubbles exist (though many exist of financial bubbles). The authors provide both theoretical novelties (such as providing a model of risk using non-linear differential equations) and practical ones (showing when we can expect Chinese GDP to fall).

The author augments an otherwise standard business-cycle model with a rich government sector and adds monopolistic competition in the product market and rigid prices, as well as rigid wages a la Calvo (1983) in the labor market.

This specification with the nominal wage rigidity, when calibrated to Bulgarian data after the introduction of the currency board (1999–2018), allows the framework to reproduce better observed variability and correlations among model variables and those characterizing the labor market in particular.

As nominal wage frictions are incorporated, the variables become more persistent, especially output, capital stock, investment and consumption, which help the model match data better, as compared to a setup without rigidities.

The findings suggest that technology shocks seem to be the dominant source of economic fluctuations, but nominal wage rigidities as well as the monopolistic competition in the product market, might be important factors of relevance to the labor market dynamics in Bulgaria, and such imperfections should be incorporated in any model that studies cyclical movements in employment and wages.

The computational experiments performed in this paper suggest that wage rigidities are a quantitatively important model ingredient, which should be taken into consideration when analyzing the effects of different policies in Bulgaria, which is a novel result.