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The purpose of this paper is to test the overshooting effects of monetary expansion on prices of agricultural products at farm production, processing and circulation stages in China, and to investigate the heterogeneity of the overshooting mechanisms in these three links.

Empirical results are obtained through the vector error correction model and the overshooting framework proposed by Saghaian et al. (2002b). Specifically, we first apply the Dickey–Fuller generalized least squares (DF-GLS) method to test the stationarity of the key variables, and then use the Johansen’s (1991) method to conduct the cointegration test. Finally, the vector error correction model is employed to examine the overshooting hypotheses in the three stages of China’s agricultural sector.

Empirical results indicate that overshooting of prices relative to monetary expansion in China’s agricultural sector is a common phenomenon, but with significant heterogeneity. Firstly, at the stage of agricultural production, the overshooting degree and restoration rate of material price are greater than those of agricultural products price. Secondly, at the processing stage of agricultural products, both the purchase price of agricultural products and industrial producer price have an overshooting effect, but the overshooting effect of the former is more significant than the latter. Thirdly, at the circulation stage of agricultural products, the overshooting coefficient of the wholesale price index of agricultural products is the most significant, while that of the retail and purchase price of agricultural products is not significant.

The paper contributes to proposing a comprehensive framework on testing the overshooting effects for three main stages of agricultural sector in China and empirically investigating the heterogeneity of the overshooting mechanisms in different stages with time series methods.

This paper aims to explore the relationship between prudence in risk attitudes and patience of time preference of Chinese apple growers regarding off-farm cold storage of production and marketing in non-harvest seasons. The authors also consider the effect of farmer participation in cooperative-like organizations known as Farm Bases (FBs).

The authors use multiple list methods and elicitation strategies to measure Chinese apple farmers' risk attitudes and time preferences. Because these farmers can either sell their apples immediately to supermarkets or intermediaries or place them in storage, the authors assess correlations between their storage decisions and their preferences regarding risk and time. The authors also differentiate risks involving gains and losses and empirically examine individual risk attitudes in different scenarios.

Marketing decisions are moderately associated with risk attitudes but not time preference. Farmers with memberships in local farmer cooperatives are likely to speculate more in cold storage. Thus, risk aversion behavioral and psychological motives affect farmers' decision-making of cold storage and intertemporal marketing activities. However, membership in cooperatives does not always result in improved income and welfare for farmers.

The research confirms that behavioral factors may strongly drive vulnerable smallholder farmers to speculate into storage even under seasonal and uncertain marketing volatility. There is the need to think deeper about the rationale of promoting cooperatives and other agricultural forms, because imposing these without careful consideration can have negative impacts.

Do risk and time preferences affect the decision of farmers to utilize storage facilities? This question is important because it is not clear if and how risk preferences affect the tradeoff between consuming today and saving for tomorrow, especially for farmers in developing countries.

The present study provides evidence on export advantages of horticultural commodities based on competitiveness, trade balance and seasonality dimensions.

The study delineated horticultural commodities in terms of comparative advantage, examined temporal shifts in export advantages (mapping) and estimated seasonality. Product mapping was carried out using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) and Trade Balance Index (TBI). Seasonal advantages were examined through a graphical approach along with the objective tests, namely, modified QS-test (QS), Friedman-test (FT) and using a seasonal dummy.

Cucumbers/gherkins, onions, preserved vegetables, fresh grapes, shelled cashew nuts, guavas, mangoes, and spices emerged as the most favorable horticultural products. India has a strong seasonal advantage in dried onions, cucumber/gherkins, shelled cashew nut, dried capsicum, coriander, cumin, and turmeric. The untapped potential in horticulture can be addressed by handling the trade barriers effectively, particularly the sanitary and phytosanitary issues, affecting the exports. Proper policies must be enacted to facilitate the investment in advanced agricultural technologies and logistics to ensure the desired quality and cost effectiveness.

Commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.

There is no holistic and recent study illustrating the horticulture export advantages covering a large number of commodities in the Indian context. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders for drawing useful policy implications.

This study aims to investigate the role of international price volatility and inventories on domestic market price dynamics in the case of agricultural commodities.

A structural model is employed to uncover relationships among commodity price, price volatility, inventories and convenience yield. Monthly producer price data along with annual data on trade, consumption, inventories and tariffs for 71 countries and 13 commodities covering 2010–2019 are assembled to estimate the model. With a first-stage Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) estimator to identify the best instrument set, a nonlinear approach is used to estimate the model.

Results show that international market information plays a critical role in domestic market price dynamics. International price volatility has a stronger effect on domestic prices than that of international inventories.

Current upheaval in commodity markets requires an understanding of how prices move together and inventories affect that movement. A country's internal price is not independent of the effects of global market events.

Although hypotheses exist that global market information (volatility and inventories) helps countries manage domestic commodity prices, there have been limited studies on this relationship, especially with a structured model and cross-country data.

Background: Commodity-driven deforestation is a major driver of forest loss worldwide, and globalisation has increased the disconnect between producer and consumer countries. Recent due-diligence legislation aiming to improve supply chain sustainability covers major forest-risk commodities. However, the evidence base for specific commodities included within policy needs assessing to ensure effective reduction of embedded deforestation.

Methods: We conducted a rapid evidence synthesis in October 2020 using three databases; Google Scholar, Web of Science, and Scopus, to assess the literature and identify commodities with the highest deforestation risk linked to UK imports. Inclusion criteria include publication in the past 10 years and studies that didn't link commodity consumption to impacts or to the UK were excluded. The development of a review protocol was used to minimise bias and critical appraisal of underlying data and methods in studies was conducted in order to assess the uncertainties around results.

Results: From a total of 318 results, 17 studies were included in the final synthesis. These studies used various methodologies and input data, yet there is broad alignment on commodities, confirming that those included in due diligence legislation have a high deforestation risk. Soy, palm oil, and beef were identified as critical, with their production being concentrated in just a few global locations. However, there are also emerging commodities that have a high deforestation risk but are not included in legislation, such as sugar and coffee. These commodities are much less extensively studied in the literature and may warrant further research and consideration.

Conclusion: Policy recommendations in the selected studies suggests further strengthening of the UK due diligence legislation is needed. In particular, the provision of incentives for uptake of policies and wider stakeholder engagement, as well as continual review of commodities included to ensure a reduction in the UK's overseas deforestation footprint.

In a volatile agricultural postharvest market, producers require more personalized information about market dynamics for informed decisions on the marketed surplus. However, this adaptive strategy fails to benefit them if the selection of a computational price predictive model to disseminate information on the market outlook is not efficient, and the associated risk of perishability, and storage cost factor are not assumed against the seemingly favourable market behaviour. Consequently, the decision of whether to store or sell at the time of crop harvest is a perennial dilemma to solve. With the intent of addressing this challenge for agricultural producers, the study is focused on designing an agricultural decision support system (ADSS) to suggest a favourable marketing strategy to crop producers.

The present study is guided by an eclectic theoretical perspective from supply chain literature that included agency theory, transaction cost theory, organizational information processing theory and opportunity cost theory in revenue risk management. The paper models a structured iterative algorithmic framework that leverages the forecasting capacity of different time series and machine learning models, considering the effect of influencing factors on agricultural price movement for better forecasting predictability against market variability or dynamics. It also attempts to formulate an integrated risk management framework for effective sales planning decisions that factors in the associated costs of storage, rental and physical loss until the surplus is held for expected returns.

Empirical demonstration of the model was simulated on the dynamic markets of tomatoes, onions and potatoes in a north Indian region. The study results endorse that farmer-centric post-harvest information intelligence assists crop producers in the strategic sales planning of their produce, and also vigorously promotes that the effectiveness of decision making is contingent upon the selection of the best predictive model for every future market event.

As a policy implication, the proposed ADSS addresses the pressing need for a robust marketing support system for the socio-economic welfare of farming communities grappling with distress sales, and low remunerative returns.

Based on the extant literature studied, there is no such study that pays personalized attention to agricultural producers, enabling them to make a profitable sales decision against the volatile post-harvest market scenario. The present research is an attempt to fill that gap with the scope of addressing crop producer's ubiquitous dilemma of whether to sell or store at the time of harvesting. Besides, an eclectic and iterative style of predictive modelling has also a limited implication in the agricultural supply chain based on the literature; however, it is found to be a more efficient practice to function in a dynamic market outlook.

The study examined the influence of small and medium enterprise (SME) owner-managers' managerial competencies on supply chain performance, the mediation role of information quality on the SME owner-managers' managerial competencies and supply chain performance relationship, the mediating role of information quality on the information sharing and supply chain performance relationship and the mediating role of both information sharing and information quality on SME owner-managers' managerial competences and supply chain performance relationship.

Data were collected from SME agro-processing firms. The determined sample size for the agro-processing firms was 200, while an effective sample size of 177 was obtained. The Covariance Structural Equation Modelling software was used to obtain results on the influence of SME owner-managers' managerial competencies on supply chain performance, the mediation role of information quality on the SME owner-managers' managerial competencies and supply chain performance relationship, the mediating role of information quality on the information sharing and supply chain performance relationship and the mediating role of both information sharing and information quality on SME owner-managers' managerial competences and supply chain performance relationship.

Findings indicated that a positive significant influence of SME owner-managers' managerial competencies on supply chain performance and the presence of partial mediation effects when the mediating role of information quality in the SME owner-managers' managerial competencies and supply chain performance relationship and the information sharing and supply chain performance relationship is tested. Also, a partial mediating role of information sharing and information quality is obtained in the SME owner-managers' managerial competencies and supply chain performance relationship.

The study mainly focused on SME agro-processing firms eliminating other SME manufacturing firms. Also, the research employed a wholistic approach when studying the SME agro-processing firms without focusing on how SME owner-managers' managerial competencies would affect information sharing, information quality and supply chain performance based on the market type (local or foreign) and the source of raw materials (local or foreign) and the impact of information sharing on information quality hasn't been given significant attention in the existing literature.

The research focused on the mediation role of quality of information shared by SME owner-managers in the relationship between information sharing and supply chain performance, the mediating role of information quality in the SME owner-managers' managerial competencies and supply chain performance and the mediating role of both SME owner-manager's information sharing and quality of information shared in the relationship between SME owner-managers' managerial competences and supply chain performance. These mediation effects haven't been given significant attention in previous research. Further, while information sharing and information quality have been studied, they have been studied at a supply chain level, not at a managerial level.

This work aims at designing an indicator for detecting and forecasting price volatility and speculative bubbles in three markets dealing with agricultural and soft commodities, i.e. Intercontinental Exchange Futures market Europe, (IFEU), Intercontinental Exchange Futures market United States (IFUS) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). This indicator, designed as a demand/supply odds ratio, intends to overcome the subjectivity limits embedded in sentiment indexes as the Bull and Bears ratio by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Data evidence allows for the parameter estimation of a Jacobi diffusion process that models the demand share and leads the forecast of speculative bubbles and realised volatility. Validation of outcomes is obtained through the dynamic regression with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) error. Results are discussed in comparison with those from the traditional generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The database is retrieved from Thomson Reuters DataStream (nearby futures daily frequency).

The empirical analysis shows that the indicator succeeds in capturing the trend of the observed volatility in the future at medium and long-time horizons. A comparison of simulations results with those obtained with the traditional GARCH models, usually adopted in forecasting the volatility trend, confirms that the indicator is able to replicate the trend also providing turning points, i.e. additional information completely neglected by the GARCH analysis.

The authors' commodity demand as discrete-time process is capable of replicating the observed trend in a continuous-time framework, as well as turning points. This process is suited for estimating behavioural parameters of the agents, i.e. long-term mean, speed of mean reversion and herding behaviour. These parameters are used in the forecast of speculative bubbles and realised volatility.

This paper gives a model of collusion formation and a method of measuring the degree of it among the traders/bidders in the agricultural commodity markets in India. The important assumption is that the bidding is repetitive with a set of common bidders. The theory has been derived based on the behavior of the wholesale market of agricultural commodities in India. The paper is based on full information in the collusion formation. The paper first derives the theoretical structure of the bidders' behavior and thereafter derives a measure of collusion formation with the help of real-life data.

The paper used the standard theory of optimization and the theory of auction and probability statistics.

This is a complete information model of cartel formation. The bidding is repetitive and continues forever in discrete time. Hence bidders behavior is observable. Using the proposed method, if the APMC measures for each market and publishes on a periodic basis, say weekly basis, then it will be easier to break the collusion in the market where relative collision is present. For example, if a farmer has three options to sell in three different markets, then the published data would help them to select the market where the degree of collusion is relatively lower. Moreover, the undesirable loss can be avoided based on the right choice of market. As a result, transaction costs will be optima.

The paper first derives the theoretical structure of the bidders' behavior and thereafter derives a measure of collusion formation with the help of real-life data.

Given the dominant share of India in global production of fruits and vegetables, this paper intends to analyze the export competitiveness of India and other major food exporters in the world trade. The purpose of this study is to examine export structure, substitutability and complementarity of selected fresh and processed fruits and vegetables of top ten food exporters for the period 2010-20.

Balassa’s (1965) revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index was used to measure RCA indices of selected fruits and vegetables under study. Also, revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) and normalized RCA (NRCA) indices have been calculated. Further, Spearman rank correlation coefficients were computed to analyze changes over the study period for India and other competing countries. The export data have been sourced from UN Comtrade, an electronic database of United Nations, as well as World Trade Statistical Review, a database of World Trade Organization. The analysis was undertaken at Harmonized System (HS) four-digit classification for the period 2010-20.

The results disclosed an improvement in India’s comparative advantage over the period of 2010-20 in HS 07 product category, whereas the advantage ceded to other competitive nations in HS 08 product category. Further, Spearman rank correlation coefficients revealed that India faces competition from countries like China, Indonesia, Brazil, Thailand, Argentina and European Union for HS 07 product category, while countries like Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil and Thailandare the major competitors of India in HS 08 product category.

The paper expands the existing agricultural trade literature in three ways. First, it is one of the very few studies that have analyzed RCA for Indian fresh and processed fruits and vegetables using three different types of indices, namely, Balassa’s RCA, RSCA and NRCA. Second, the authors provide a number of comparisons related to RCA for Indian fruits and vegetables with other top food exporters in the world for a period of 10 years (2010-20). Third, the authors contribute to agricultural trade literature by assessing the substitutability or complementarity of India in the export of fruits and vegetables with other competing nations by using Spearman rank correlation coefficients.