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This study aims to propose a risk-induced game theoretic forecasting model to predict average daily rate (ADR) under COVID-19, using an advanced recurrent neural network.

Using three data sets from upper-midscale hotels in three locations (i.e. urban, interstate and suburb), from January 1, 2018, to August 31, 2020, three long-term, short-term memory (LSTM) models were evaluated against five traditional forecasting models.

The models proposed in this study outperform traditional methods, such that the simplest LSTM model is more accurate than most of the benchmark models in two of the three tested hotels. In particular, the results show that traditional methods are inefficient in hotels with rapid fluctuations of demand and ADR, as observed during the pandemic. In contrast, LSTM models perform more accurately for these hotels.

This study is limited by its use of American data and data from midscale hotels as well as only predicting ADR.

This study produced a reliable, accurate forecasting model considering risk and competitor behavior.

This paper extends the application of game theory principles to ADR forecasting and combines it with the concept of risk for forecasting during uncertain times.

This study is the first study, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to use actual hotel data from the COVID-19 pandemic to determine an appropriate neural network forecasting method for times of uncertainty. The application of Shapley value and operational risk obtained a game-theoretic property-level model, which fits best.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The variance between the winning bid and the owner's estimated cost (OEC) is one of the construction management risks in the pre-tendering phase. The study aims to enhance the quality of the owner's estimation for predicting precisely the contract cost at the pre-tendering phase and avoiding future issues that arise through the construction phase.

This paper integrated artificial neural networks (ANN), deep neural networks (DNN) and time series (TS) techniques to estimate the ratio of a low bid to the OEC (R) for different size contracts and three types of contracts (building, electric and mechanic) accurately based on 94 contracts from King Saud University. The ANN and DNN models were evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean sum square error (MSSE) and root mean sums square error (RMSSE).

The main finding is that the ANN provides high accuracy with MAPE, MSSE and RMSSE a 2.94%, 0.0015 and 0.039, respectively. The DNN's precision was high, with an RMSSE of 0.15 on average.

The owner and consultant are expected to use the study's findings to create more accuracy of the owner's estimate and decrease the difference between the owner's estimate and the lowest submitted offer for better decision-making.

This study fills the knowledge gap by developing an ANN model to handle missing TS data and forecasting the difference between a low bid and an OEC at the pre-tendering phase.

Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory expertise and neural network technology can bring a fresh perspective to international migration forecasting research.

This study proposes a conditional generative adversarial neural network model incorporating the migration knowledge – conditional generative adversarial network (MK-CGAN). By using the migration knowledge to design the parameters, MK-CGAN can effectively address the limited data problem, thereby enhancing the accuracy of migration forecasts.

The model was tested by forecasting migration flows between different countries and had good generalizability and validity. The results are robust as the proposed solutions can achieve lesser mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and R² values, reaching 0.9855 compared to long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit, generative adversarial network (GAN) and the traditional gravity model.

This study is significant because it demonstrates a highly effective technique for predicting international migration using conditional GANs. By incorporating migration knowledge into our models, we can achieve prediction accuracy, gaining valuable insights into the differences between various model characteristics. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to enhance our understanding of these differences and provide clear and concise explanations for our model predictions. The results demonstrated the theoretical significance and practical value of the MK-CGAN model in predicting international migration.

This study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. Furthermore, by predicting spectators for each league (American League and National League) and division in MLB, the authors will identify the specific factors that increase accuracy, discuss them and provide implications for marketing strategies for academics and practitioners in sport.

This study used six years of daily MLB game data (2014–2019). All data were collected as predictors, such as game performance, weather and unemployment rate. Also, the attendance rate was obtained as an observation variable. The Random Forest, Lasso regression models and XGBoost were used to build the prediction model, and the analysis was conducted using Python 3.7.

The RMSE value was 0.14, and the R2 was 0.62 as a consequence of fine-tuning the tuning parameters of the XGBoost model, which had the best performance in forecasting the attendance rate. The most influential variables in the model are “Rank” of 0.247 and “Day of the week”, “Home team” and “Day/Night game” were shown as influential variables in order. The result was shown that the “Unemployment rate”, as a macroeconomic factor, has a value of 0.06 and weather factors were a total value of 0.147.

This research highlights unemployment rate as a determinant affecting MLB game attendance rates. Beyond contextual elements such as climate, the findings of this study underscore the significance of economic factors, particularly unemployment rates, necessitating further investigation into these factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of game attendance.

Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

Since conducting agile strategies provides sustainable passenger satisfaction and revenue by replacing applied policies with more profitable ones rapidly, the focus of this study is to evaluate agile attributes for managing low-cost carriers (LCCs) operations by means of resources and competences based on dynamic capabilities built on resource-based view (RBV) theory and to achieve sustainable competitive advantage in a volatile and dynamic air transport environment. LCCs in Turkey are also evaluated in this study since the competition among LCCs is high to gain market share and they can adapt quickly to all kinds of circumstances.

Two well-known Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods (MCDM) named as the Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) methods by employing Picture fuzzy sets (PiFS) are employed to determine weight of agile attributes and superiority of LCCs based on agile attributes in the market, respectively. To check the consistency and robustness of the results for the proposed approach, comparative and sensitivity analysis are performed at the end of the study.

While the ranking orders of agile attributes are Strategic Responsiveness (AG1), Financial Management (AG4), Quality (AG2), Digital integration (AG3) and Reliability (AG5), respectively, LCC2 is selected as the best agile airline company in Turkey with respect to agile attributes. SWARA and MABAC method based on PiFS is appropriate and effective method to evaluate agile attributes that has important reference value for the airline companies in aviation industry.

The findings of this study will support managers in the airline industry to conduct airline operations more flexibly and effectively to take sustainable competitive advantage in unexpected and dynamic environment.

To the author' best knowledge, this study is the first developed to identify the attributes necessary to increase agility in LCCs. Thus, as a systematic tool, a framework is developed for the implementation of agile attributes to achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the airline industry and presented a roadmap for airline managers to deal with crises and challenging situations by satisfying customer and increasing competitiveness.

This study aims to minimize the cost and time of blood delivery in the whole blood supply chain network (BSCN) in disaster conditions. In other words, integrating all strategic, tactical and operational decisions of three levels of blood collection, processing and distribution leads to satisfying the demand at the right time.

This paper proposes an integrated BSCN in disaster conditions to consider four categories of facilities, including temporary blood collection centers, field hospitals, main blood processing centers and medical centers, to optimize demand response time appropriately. The proposed model applies the location of all permanent and emergency facilities in three levels: blood collection, processing and distribution. Other essential decisions, including multipurpose facilities, emergency transportation, inventory and allocation, were also used in the model. The LP metric method is applied to solve the proposed bi-objective mathematical model for the BSCN.

The findings show that this model clarifies its efficiency in the total cost and blood delivery time reduction, which results in a low carbon transmission of the blood supply chain.

The researchers proposed an integrated BSCN in disaster conditions to minimize the cost and time of blood delivery. They considered multipurpose capabilities for facilities (e.g. field hospitals are responsible for the three purposes of blood collection, processing and distribution), and so locating permanent and emergency facilities at three levels of blood collection, processing and distribution, support facilities, emergency transportation and traffic on the route with pollution were used to present a new model.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Andalusia’s tourism promotion budgets and the efficiency of its campaigns from 2010 to 2022.

A mixed-methods approach is used. Tourism promotion budgets from 2010 to 2022 were measured as a supply indicator. Demand indicators (e.g. airport’s passenger arrivals, number of tourists and hotel occupancy rate) are analysed to measure tourism promotion budget impacts on them.

Tourism promotion budgets are a priority to stimulate tourism demand for Andalusia in times of uncertainly, and promotion campaigns are pivotal to attract and convert potential customers into actual tourists. Moreover, findings reveal that tourism promotion budgets had positive impacts on tourism demand. Whereas tourism promotion campaigns such as “Andalucía wants you back”, “Intensely”, Fitur, World Travel Market, ITB Berlin events and tourism advertising through digital channels have helped to improve tourism demand in Andalusia, ignoring the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the year 2020.

This study emphasizes how tourism promotion budgets and promotion campaigns must be constantly monitored by destination marketing organizations to measure the efficiency and effectiveness of assigned economic budgets and its return on investment.

Purpose: This study analyses how investments and specific financial factors affect the financial performance of businesses in Kosovo. Exploring the relationship between investments and financial performance and their impact on performance volatility, performance is assessed using return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) investments.

Methodology: Quantitative methods using secondary data from audited financial statements of Kosova manufacturing and commercial enterprises cover a 3-year period (2019–2021), involving 40 enterprises with 120 observations. Statistical tests such as descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, linear regression, Hausman–Taylor regression, fixed effects, random effects, and generalised estimating equations (GEE) model are applied. The study also utilises ARCH–GARCH analysis to assess the relationship between investments and performance volatility.

Findings: Investments positively impact the financial performance of Kosova businesses and significantly reduce performance volatility. Long-term liabilities, retained earnings, and short-term liabilities also play a role in reducing asset return volatility, while cash flow from financial activities increases it. Investments, cash flows from financial activities, long-term liabilities, short-term liabilities, retained earnings, and solvency affect equity return volatility.

Practical Implications: The study sheds light on how investments and financial factors influence the financial performance and volatility of Kosova businesses. Policymakers can use these insights to create policies that foster the development of commercial and manufacturing enterprises, given their importance in Kosovo’s economy.

Significance: This research provides valuable insights for business managers to enhance investment strategies and improve financial performance. Policymakers can rely on this academic study to enhance the economic environment and promote the growth of businesses in Kosovo.