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1 – 10 of over 1000Chung Van Dong and Hoan Quang Truong
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been negatively affecting international trade between countries; however, there is a lack of empirical studies on developing…
Abstract
Purpose
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been negatively affecting international trade between countries; however, there is a lack of empirical studies on developing countries such as Vietnam. This article aims to investigate how the COVID-19 cases and related deaths and policy response by Vietnam and trading partners to the pandemic affect Vietnam's export activities.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the monthly trade data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs and employ the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator to empirically investigate the effects of COVID-19 and policy response to the pandemic on Vietnam's exports at aggregate and sectoral levels over a 33-month period.
Findings
In the first year of the pandemic (January–December 2020) as well as the whole study period (January 2019–September 2021), trading partners' COVID-19 burden adversely affected Vietnam's aggregate exports, and the effect of COVID-19 deaths is significantly larger than that of COVID-19 cases. In the first year of the pandemic, estimates show a negative effect of Vietnam's COVID-19 cases on its exports, while no evidence reveals the impact of Vietnam's COVID-19 deaths. However, during the entire study period, there are remarkable adverse effects of Vietnam's COVID-19 deaths on its exports. The effect of the COVID-19 burden in Vietnam and in its trading partners differs significantly across major subsectors. In the first year, there is a positive role of government response to the pandemic by Vietnam and its trading partners in Vietnam's aggregate exports, while in the whole study period, only a positive effect of Vietnam's government response is found. Economic support and free trade agreements (FTAs) have a positive effect on Vietnam's exports. In the first year of the pandemic, Vietnam's export losses due to COVID-19 outweighed its export gains from the pandemic. However, Vietnam's exports have significantly improved over the nine months of 2021.
Research limitations/implications
Efforts should aim to reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths rather than focus on reducing the number of COVID-19 cases. The application of stringency measures by both exporters and importers should be minimized, or at least those measures need to be combined with health methods, such as testing policy and contact tracing, short-term investment in healthcare and especially investments in vaccines. In addition, economic support, particularly debt relief, needs to be widely applied to assist firms, especially those involved in international trade. The expansion of FTA networks and diversifying export destinations may be helpful in maintaining production networks and export activities.
Practical implications
In the long-term period, the application of stringency measures by both exporters and importers should be minimized, or at least those measures need to be combined with health methods such as testing policy and contact tracing, short-term investment in healthcare and especially investments in vaccines. In addition, economic assistance, particularly debt relief, needs to be widely applied to assist firms, especially those involved in international trade activities.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the paper is among the first studies empirically investigating the impacts of COVID-19 and policy response to the pandemic on aggregate and sectoral exports from Vietnam. The paper also measures the absolute value of export gain and export loss due to the pandemic between Vietnam and trading countries.
Yuchen Liu, Yinguo Dong and Weiwen Qian
The purpose of this study is to explore the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to explore the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports, this study empirically examines the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports based on China’s customs export data from 2011 to 2016.
Findings
The relevant findings are threefold. (1) The digital economy significantly improves the binary margin of agricultural exports, and its effect on the intensive margin is stronger than that on the expansive margin. After the expansive margin is subdivided, the effects on the three sub-variables of the expansive margin are in the following order: old products exported to new markets > new products exported to old markets > new products exported to new markets. (2) The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the digital economy has a stronger role in promoting the binary margin of exports for enterprises in the eastern region, high-income countries as the destination of exports and state-owned enterprises. (3) Mechanism analysis shows that the digital economy promotes the binary margin of agricultural exports by reducing trade costs and intensifying market competition.
Originality/value
First, in terms of research perspective, although there are some studies on the impact of the digital economy on export trade in existing literature, the research objects mainly focus on manufacturing enterprises. In fact, agricultural trade is susceptible to natural conditions and seasonal factors, and countries may impose more SPS measures and TBT measures on agricultural trade due to risk considerations. The relationship between the digital economy and agricultural trade also has its own characteristics, but there are few research studies in this area. At present, only Liu and Gao (2022), based on the data of total imports and exports of different agricultural products from 2004 to 2018, have established a vector auto-regressive model to empirically analyse the heterogeneous dynamic impact of the digital economy on the trade volume of agricultural products. In addition, Ma and Guo (2023) conducted an empirical test on the total effect, regional heterogeneity and threshold effect of the digital economy on agricultural export trade based on China’s provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. Therefore, under the new circumstances of continuous integration of digital technology and agriculture, this study interprets the impact effect and mechanism of the digital economy on the binary margin of agricultural exports from the perspective of the digital economy, providing new research perspectives and approaches for promoting the growth of agricultural exports. Second, in terms of theoretical analysis, the above studies have not been fully analysed in terms of the specific mechanism of the impact of the digital economy on agricultural exports. Based on the positive and negative characteristics of agricultural trade, this study introduces two kinds of roles into the theoretical analysis framework to comprehensively determine the trade impact effect of the digital economy. Third, in terms of research design, this study empirically examines the impact of the digital economy on the binary margin of agricultural products, passing a series of robustness tests and investigating the mediating roles of trade cost and market competition effects, producing an empirical basis for China to leverage the digital economy to promote the binary margin of agricultural exports.
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The concept of the “global production network” (GPN) has emerged as a framework for analyzing the intricate connections between a dominant or pivotal firm and its suppliers across…
Abstract
The concept of the “global production network” (GPN) has emerged as a framework for analyzing the intricate connections between a dominant or pivotal firm and its suppliers across various countries. 1 The expansion of GPNs signifies that trade encompasses not only the final products but also the parts and components (P&C) involved in their production. The reduction of tariff barriers and advancements in transportation and communication technology have facilitated the fragmentation of production processes across different countries. This has led to a significant transformation in the nature and structure of global trade. This chapter aims to synthesize and present this literature. By identifying the key drivers, determinants, and consequences of fragmentation trade through a literature-based approach, this study aids in assessing the opportunities and challenges those lagging countries, like India, encounter in terms of increased participation in GPNs.
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The use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target…
Abstract
Purpose
The use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target populations. The author presents the first systematic analysis of the effects of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper provides a comprehensive survey and assessment of the literature on the effects of economic sanctions on living standards in target countries. The author identifies 31 studies that apply quantitative econometric or calibration methods to cross-country and national data to assess the impact of economic sanctions on indicators of human and economic development. The author provides in-depth discussions of three sanctions episodes—Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela—that illustrate the channels through which sanctions affect living conditions in target countries.
Findings
Of the 31 studies, 30 find that sanctions have negative effects on outcomes ranging from per capita income to poverty, inequality, mortality and human rights. The author provides new results showing that 54 countries—27% of all countries and 29% of the world economy— are sanctioned today, up from only 4% of countries in the 1960s. In the three cases discussed, sanctions that restricted the access of governments to foreign exchange limited the ability of states to provide essential public goods and services and generated substantial negative spillovers on private sector and nongovernmental actors.
Originality/value
This is the first literature survey that systematically assesses the quantitative evidence on the effect of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.
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Mohamed Ismail Mohamed Riyath, Narayanage Jayantha Dewasiri, Kiran Sood, Yatiwelle Koralalage Weerakoon Banda and Kiran Nair
By examining the impact of the day of the week during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic recession, it is possible to provide insights into market behaviour during…
Abstract
Introduction
By examining the impact of the day of the week during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic recession, it is possible to provide insights into market behaviour during volatile times that can be furnished to investors and policymakers for informed decisions.
Purpose
This study investigates the day-of-the-week effect on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), with particular emphasis on the variations in this effect during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic crisis.
Design/Methodology/Approach
The study applies the Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model, allowing for the evaluation of asymmetric responses to positive and negative shocks. The data span from January 2006 to December 2022 and are segmented into different periods: the entire sample, war and post-war periods, the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis period, each reflecting distinct market conditions.
Findings
The study uncovers a significant day-of-the-week effect on the CSE. Mondays and Tuesdays typically show a negative effect, while Thursdays and Fridays display a positive impact. However, this pattern shifts notably during the COVID-19 pandemic, with all weekdays exhibiting significant positive impact, and varies further across different waves of the pandemic. The economic crisis period also shows unique weekday effects, particularly before and after an important political event.
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Egemen Sertyesilisik and Begum Sertyesilisik
The COVID-19 pandemic affected entire humanity, sustainable development and international trade. Even if international trade is in the recovery phase, COVID-19 pandemic's adverse…
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic affected entire humanity, sustainable development and international trade. Even if international trade is in the recovery phase, COVID-19 pandemic's adverse effects on sustainable development and trade continue to be experienced globally. Furthermore, break out of the war in Ukraine (WIU) further affected not only Ukraine and Russia but also other countries. Countries have started to experience adverse impacts of the WIU more deeply as this war continues. From the global sustainable development and trade perspectives, the WIU impacts' magnitude is affected by the significance of Ukraine and Russia's role in and contribution to the global economy and trade (e.g. agriculture, energy). All countries, including developed, developing and under-developed countries, have started to be affected at different levels due to the adverse impacts of this war. Based on an in-depth literature review, this chapter aims to investigate the WIU's impacts on global sustainable development and international trade. Furthermore, effects of the WIU on climate change and on the fight against climate change are investigated within the scope of this chapter. This chapter is expected to be useful to all stakeholders of sustainable development including politicians and researchers.
The purpose of this study is to examine the welfare effects of product standards (which fall under Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs)) on an exporting country when the country by its own…
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the welfare effects of product standards (which fall under Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs)) on an exporting country when the country by its own choice prefers to follow the null standard for the domestic market, which is not possible due to high set up cost at two different standards. The model has used a theoretical framework to analyze the effects and has derived some important results. If the standard is not linked with a true negative externality, the exporting country, given the assumptions of the model will always prefer to be discriminated by “tariff” and the importing country will prefer to protect its market by “tariff” rather than going for NTB. The typical assumptions taken here resemble the trade between developed and developing countries when the developed country imposes some minimum standard on a product but becomes relatively “costly” for the developing country to comply with. As the importing country is not free to set tariffs, it will use NTB as a minimum standard (as it is welfare-improving than free trade). However, the minimum standard also affects the exporting country's local producers and consumers. So NTB leads to a worse situation for both countries and definitely worst for the exporting country. Using a game theoretic framework, the study shows that the imposition of standards which does not address any real externality can be an optimum response for an importing country leading to a loss in the global welfare compared to a free trade situation.
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Increasing trade liberalization and financial integration with rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have an intense impact on the labor market of both the developed as…
Abstract
Increasing trade liberalization and financial integration with rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have an intense impact on the labor market of both the developed as well as the developing world. The restructuring of economic activity has resulted in destruction of jobs in some parts of the economy and start-ups of new firms in the other part, growing import competition with foreign firms displacing local firms, relocation of jobs from high wage to low wage nations. It is claimed that rapid globalization has also the outcome of “race to the bottom” in terms of wages and the quality of employment. As per the latest International Labor Organization (ILO) Global Employment Trends, 2022, total global number of unemployed youths is estimated to reach 73 million in 2022 but still six million above the prepandemic level of 2019. The latest press release October 2022 points out that trade growth is likely to experience a slowdown in 2023 due to multiple shocks on global economy. High energy prices due to the Russia–Ukraine war is expected to contract household expenditure and raise the cost of manufacturing. The present chapter seeks to analyze the impact of trade flows on the labor market – job creation or job loss, wage inequality, movement toward informal economy, gender inequalities, and other related issues. The data are based on various reports available from the ILO, the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and World Trade Oorganization (WTO) Trade Reports. The empirical analysis also confirms that there is a unidirectional causality from trade to employment generation.
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Khadijeh Hassanzadeh, Kiumars Shahbazi, Mohammad Movahedi and Olivier Gaussens
This paper aims to investigate the difference between the impacts of indicators of trade barriers (TBs) on bankrupt enterprises (BEs), new enterprises (NEs) and other enterprises…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the difference between the impacts of indicators of trade barriers (TBs) on bankrupt enterprises (BEs), new enterprises (NEs) and other enterprises (OEs).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper has used a multiple-step approach. At the first stage, the initial data has been collected from interviews with 164 top managers of SMEs in West Azerbaijan in Iran during two periods of 2013–2015 and 2017–2019. At the second step, multiple correspondence analysis has been used to summarize the relationships between variables and construct indices for different groups of TBs. Finally, the generalized structural equation model method was used to examine the impact of export barriers.
Findings
The results showed that the political legal index is the main TBs for BEs and NEs, but it had a more significant impact on BEs; the financial index was the second major TBs factor for BEs, while OEs did not have a problem in performance index, and the financial index was classified as a minor obstacle for them. All indicators of marketing barriers (except production index) had a negative and significant effect on all enterprises; the most important TBs for NEs was the information index.
Originality/value
The results indicated that if enterprises have a strong financial system and function, they can lessen the impact of sanctions and keep themselves in the market.
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