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Book part
Publication date: 19 March 2024

Graham S. Steele

Cryptocurrency arose, and grew in popularity, following the financial crisis of 2008 built upon a promise of decentralizing money and payments. An examination of the history of…

Abstract

Cryptocurrency arose, and grew in popularity, following the financial crisis of 2008 built upon a promise of decentralizing money and payments. An examination of the history of money and banking in the United States demonstrates that stable money benefits from strict controls and commitments by a centralized government through chartering restrictions and a broad safety net, rather than decentralization. In addition, financial crises happen when the government allows money creation to occur outside of official channels. The US central bank is then forced into a policy of supporting a range of money-like assets in order to maintain a grip on monetary policy and some semblance of financial stability.

In addition, this chapter argues that cryptocurrency as a form of shadow money shares many of the problematic attributes of both the privately issued bank notes that created instability during the “free banking” era and the “shadow banking” activities that contributed to the 2008 crisis. In this sense, rather than being a novel and disruptive idea, cryptocurrency replicates many of the systemically destabilizing aspects of privately issued money and money-like instruments.

This chapter proposes that, rather than allowing a new, digital “free banking” era to emerge, there are better alternatives. Specifically, it argues that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should use its tools to improve public payment systems, enact robust utility-like regulations for private digital currencies and limit the likelihood of bubbles using prudential measures.

Details

Technology vs. Government: The Irresistible Force Meets the Immovable Object
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-951-4

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Book part
Publication date: 17 May 2024

Asim K. Karmakar, Sebak K. Jana and Priyanthi Bagchi

Financial instability and economic crises are closely intertwined. There is no universally accepted definition. The term ‘stability’ or ‘instability’ refers to the behaviour of…

Abstract

Financial instability and economic crises are closely intertwined. There is no universally accepted definition. The term ‘stability’ or ‘instability’ refers to the behaviour of the system rather than to individual institutions. However, one cannot rule out that failure of a single financial institution can trigger significant financial turmoil as was happened in 2007–08 global financial crises. Like unstable equilibrium, instability implies inability to correct itself on its own. Instability, if it persists, turns into a crisis. In the above backdrop, the objective of this chapter is to investigate the financial crises and instability viewed both from economic and international political economy perspectives with a tale of four generation crisis models as it has been evolved over time to explain the phenomenon of different types of crises.

Details

International Trade, Economic Crisis and the Sustainable Development Goals
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-587-3

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Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

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Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 19 March 2024

Yousra Trichilli, Hana Kharrat and Mouna Boujelbène Abbes

This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax gold as a diversifier and hedge asset.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the volatility spillover between Pax gold and fiat currencies using the framework of wavelet analysis, BEKK-GARCH models and Range DCC-GARCH. Moreover, this paper proposes to use the covariance and variance structure obtained from the new range DCC-GARCH framework to estimate the time-varying optimal hedge ratios, the optimal weighs and the hedging effectiveness.

Findings

Wavelet coherence method reveals that, at low frequency, large zone of co-movements appears for the pairs Pax gold/EUR, Pax gold/JPY and Pax gold/RUB. Further, the BEKK results show unidirectional (bidirectional) transmission effects between Pax gold and EUR, GBP, JPY and CNY (INR, RUB) fiat currencies. Moreover, the Range DCC results show that the Pax gold and the fiat currency returns are weakly correlated with low coefficients close to zero. Thus, Pax gold seems to serve as a safe haven asset against the systematic risk of fiat currency markets. In addition, the results of optimal weights show that rational investor should invest more in Pax gold and less in fiat currencies. Concerning the hedge ratios results, the findings reveal that the INR (JPY) fiat currency appears to be the most expensive (cheapest) hedge for the Pax-gold market. However, the JPY’s fiat currency appears to be the cheapest one. As for hedging effectiveness results, the authors found that hedging strategies including fiat currencies–Pax gold pairs are most likely to sharply decrease the portfolio’s risk.

Practical implications

A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between Pax Gold and fiat currencies is crucial for refining portfolio strategies involving cryptocurrencies. This research underscores the significance of grasping volatility transmissions between these currencies, providing valuable insights to guide investors in their decision-making processes. Moreover, it encourages further exploration into the interdependencies of digital currencies. Additionally, this study sheds light on effective contagion risk management, particularly during crises such as Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It underscores the role of Pax Gold as a safe-haven asset and offers practical guidance for adjusting portfolios across various economic conditions. Ultimately, this research advances our comprehension of Pax Gold’s risk-return profile, positioning it as a potential hedge during periods of uncertainty, thereby contributing to the evolving literature on cryptocurrencies.

Originality/value

This study’s primary value lies in its pioneering empirical examination of the time-varying correlations and scale dependence between Pax Gold and fiat currencies. It goes beyond by determining optimal time-varying hedge ratios through the innovative Range-DCC-GARCH model, originally introduced by Molnár (2016) and distinguished by its incorporation of both low and high prices. Significantly, this analysis unfolds within the unique context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, marking a novel contribution to the field.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

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Article
Publication date: 27 September 2023

Susovon Jana and Tarak Nath Sahu

This study aims to investigate the possibilities of cryptocurrencies as hedges and diversifiers in the Indian stock market before and during financial crisis due to the pandemic…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the possibilities of cryptocurrencies as hedges and diversifiers in the Indian stock market before and during financial crisis due to the pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

Design/methodology/approach

Researchers have used daily data on cryptocurrencies and Indian stock prices from March 10, 2015 to August 26, 2022. The researchers have used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC)-GARCH model to determine the volatility spillover and dynamic correlation between stocks and digital currencies. Further, researchers have explored hedge ratio, portfolio weight and hedging effectiveness using the estimates of the DCC-GARCH model.

Findings

The findings indicate a negative conditional correlation between equities and cryptocurrencies before the crisis and a positive conditional correlation except for Tether during the crisis. Which implies that cryptocurrencies serve as a hedging asset in the stock market before a crisis but are not more than a diversifier during the crisis, except for Tether. Notably, Tether serves as a safe haven during times of crisis. Finally, the study suggests that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin and Ripple are the most effective diversifiers for Indian stocks during the crisis.

Originality/value

This study makes several contributions to the existing literature. First, it compares the hedge and diversification roles of cryptocurrencies in the Indian stock market before and during crisis. Second, the study findings provide insights on risk hedging and can serve as a guide for investors. Third, it may help rational investors avoid underestimating risk while constructing portfolios, particularly in times of financial turmoil.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Thomas C. Chiang

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of…

Abstract

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 30 May 2024

Wesam Hassan

By drawing on 18-month ethnographic fieldwork conducted among people who participate in state-regulated games of chance in Istanbul, during the recent Turkish economic crisis in…

Abstract

By drawing on 18-month ethnographic fieldwork conducted among people who participate in state-regulated games of chance in Istanbul, during the recent Turkish economic crisis in 2021–2022, and engaging with scholarly work on the anthropology of Turkey, economic anthropology and local media and grey resources, this article illustrates the rise of cryptocurrency trading in Turkey. This article shows how my participants situated the cryptocurrency trading within their own techniques to ameliorate financial volatility and to compensate their mistrust in governmental financial institutions during times of economic turbulence. Cryptocurrency trading was viewed as an investment technique that assists in accumulating savings for ensuring the future amid fluctuating national currency and polarized political realities. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency trading was also identified as a game of chance that swings between hinging on luck or skill, and the research participants debated if cryptocurrency trading is permissible in Islam (Halal) or forbidden. Therefore, this article suggests that cryptocurrency trading, although on the rise, is still a contested topic in which the boundaries between perceptions and practices of investing and gambling are blurred within the Turkish context. The controversy of the cryptocurrency trading emerges from the polarized public attitudes and the dissonance between traditional ideals, that condemn easy money and emphasize the value of hard work, in contrast to the neoliberal realities of capitalistic modes of accumulation that encourages speculation over production.

Details

Health, Money, Commerce, and Wealth
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83549-033-4

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Book part
Publication date: 17 May 2024

Jeeten Krishna Giri and Nachiket Thakkar

Reducing and eradicating global poverty features as a primary objective of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) for 2030. Since over half a century, the World Bank has…

Abstract

Reducing and eradicating global poverty features as a primary objective of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) for 2030. Since over half a century, the World Bank has disbursed loans amounting to billions of US dollars to assist countries to alleviate poverty. However, the path to zero poverty is often impaired with conflicts, social unrest and, most commonly, economic crisis. In this chapter, we examine the inter-linkage between various forms of economic crises, poverty and government expenditure for a set of 127 countries from 1985 to 2010. Using a simultaneous equation model, we test the direct effect of a financial crisis on the incidence of poverty and its indirect effect through the immediate decrease in government expenditure. Contrary to previous studies, our findings suggest that crises have no direct impact on poverty. We find a similar effect for currency, inflation and debt crisis. However, there is evidence that poverty increases indirectly due to a fall in government expenditure. Our results are robust for non-advanced and advanced economies and alternate estimation technique using factor analysis.

Details

International Trade, Economic Crisis and the Sustainable Development Goals
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-587-3

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Susovon Jana and Tarak Nath Sahu

This study is designed to examine the dynamic interrelationships between four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano) and the Indian equity market…

Abstract

Purpose

This study is designed to examine the dynamic interrelationships between four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano) and the Indian equity market. Additionally, the study seeks to investigate the potential safe haven, hedge and diversification uses of these digital currencies within the Indian equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs the wavelet approach to examine the time-varying volatility of the studied assets and the lead-lag relationship between stocks and cryptocurrencies. The authors execute the entire analysis using daily data from 1st October 2017 to 30th September 2023.

Findings

The result of the study shows that financial distress due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have a negative effect on the Indian equities and cryptocurrency markets, escalating their price volatility. Also, the connectedness between the returns of stock and digital currency exhibits a strong positive relationship during periods of financial distress. Additionally, cryptocurrencies serve as a tool of diversification or hedging in the Indian equities markets during normal financial circumstances, but they do not serve as a diversifier or safe haven during periods of financial turmoil.

Originality/value

This study contributes to understanding the relationship between the Indian equity market and four cryptocurrencies using wavelet techniques in the time and frequency domains, considering both normal and crisis times. This can offer valuable insights into the potential of cryptocurrencies inside the Indian equities markets, mainly with respect to varying financial conditions and investment horizons.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Siti Nurhidayah Mohd Roslen, Mei-Shan Chua and Rafiatul Adlin Hj Mohd Ruslan

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of 2010–2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study refers to the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) in determining the financial risk factors to be studied in addition to the Malaysia financial stress index (FSI) to capture changes in financial risk level. The authors use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to tackle the nonlinear relationships between identified financial risk variables and Sukuk market development.

Findings

The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign debt service stability, international liquidity stability (ILS), exchange rate stability (ERS) and financial stress level with the Sukuk market development in Malaysia. Indeed, higher ILS and ERS will boost Sukuk market size, whereas higher foreign debt services and financial stress are negatively related to Sukuk market development. Findings also indicate that the long-run positive and negative impacts of identified financial risk components on Sukuk market development are statistically different. Taking into account the role of the Sukuk market in facilitating Malaysia’s economic growth, the country should aim to keep the foreign debt-to-GDP ratio at a sustainable level.

Research limitations/implications

This study points to three possible directions for future research. The first is the differential impact of financial risk components on Sukuk issuance for different Sukuk structures. As more data becomes available in the future, this area could be further explored by conducting the above analysis for different combinations of Sukuk structures and currency denominations. In addition, future researchers could also consider exploring the variability of financial risk impacts through comparative studies of the leading Sukuk-issuing countries to account for differences in regulatory frameworks and supporting infrastructure.

Practical implications

This study provides valuable practical and policy implications for strengthening the growth of the Sukuk market. While benefiting from the diversification benefits of funding sources to finance private or government projects and developments, Malaysia should remain vigilant to global economic conditions, foreign exchange markets and financial stress levels, as all of these factors may significantly influence investor sentiment and the rate of return offered by Sukuk issuance.

Originality/value

The use of the NARDL approach, which investigates the long-run effects of financial risk factors on Sukuk market development in Malaysia, makes this study a valuable addition to the literature, as there has been little research into the asymmetric effects of those variables on Sukuk market development using samples from emerging Asian markets.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

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