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Article
Publication date: 3 December 2021

Mohammad Azeem Khan, Masudul Hasan Adil and Shah Husain

The purpose of the paper is to address money demand instability and investigate the impact of economic uncertainty, stock market uncertainty and monetary uncertainty on…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to address money demand instability and investigate the impact of economic uncertainty, stock market uncertainty and monetary uncertainty on money demand in India over the period 2003Q1–2019Q4.

Design/methodology/approach

The study checks the stationarity of the variables through standard unit root tests. Based on the mixed order of variables' integration, the authors adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to confirm the cointegration and check the stability of the money demand function (MDF).

Findings

The findings confirm the presence of cointegration and reveal a well-specified MDF, which exhibits stable parameters. Besides the conventional variables, all forms of uncertainties emerge as the essential long-term determinants of money demand. Long-run findings show that people demand more money to avoid the future financial crunch amid high economic, monetary and stock market uncertainties.

Practical implications

The paper recommends, based on the findings, incorporating the monetary aggregates in the monetary policy framework as one of the essential information variables to control the fluctuation in the price level under the current flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime.

Social implications

The findings also add to the knowledge of economic agents in terms of the overall response of individuals to changes in different forms of uncertainties, thereby helping to formulate their portfolios more diligently.

Originality/value

The current work is the first of its kind in the Indian context. The incorporation of uncertainty measures in the MDF adds to the existing knowledge on money demand.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 1 November 2021

Roba Abbas and Albert Munoz

To explore the value and the case for designing antifragile socio-technical information systems (IS) in an era of big data, moving beyond traditional notions of IS design…

Abstract

Purpose

To explore the value and the case for designing antifragile socio-technical information systems (IS) in an era of big data, moving beyond traditional notions of IS design towards systems that can leverage uncertainty for gains.

Design/methodology/approach

A design science research (DSR) approach was adopted, comprising four stages, including problem identification and solutions definition, conceptual artifact or socio-technical system design, preliminary evaluation, and communication and knowledge capture.

Findings

A conceptual socio-technical artifact that identifies antecedents to antifragile IS design. When operationalised, the antecedents may produce the desired antifragile outcome. The antecedents are categorised as value propositions, design decisions and system capabilities.

Research limitations/implications

This research is conceptual in nature, applied and evaluated in a single big data analytics case study in Facebook-Cambridge Analytica. Future research should empirically validate across a range of real-world big data contexts, beyond the presented case study.

Practical implications

Uncertainty generally results in socio-technical system failures, impacting individuals, organisations and communities. Conversely, antifragile IS can respond favourably to the shocks and stressors brought forth by periods of elevated uncertainty.

Social implications

Antifragile IS can drive socio-technical systems to respond favourably to uncertainty and stressors. Typically, these socio-technical systems are large, complex structures, with increased connectivity and the requirement to generate, process, analyse and use large datasets. When these systems fail, it affects individuals, organisations and communities.

Originality/value

Existing IS design methodologies and frameworks largely ignore antifragility as a possible designable outcome. Extant research is limited to abstract architectural design, and approaches based on the proposition of principles. This research contributes to knowledge of antifragile IS design, by deriving a conceptual artifact or socio-technical system based on antecedent-outcome relationships that leverage uncertainty towards performance gains.

Details

Information Technology & People, vol. 34 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-3845

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Article
Publication date: 10 November 2021

Xi Zhong, Weihong Chen and Ge Ren

Many studies have examined the antecedents of firms' strategic change on a micro and meso level, but few studies have explored it from the macrolevel (e.g. economic policy…

Abstract

Purpose

Many studies have examined the antecedents of firms' strategic change on a micro and meso level, but few studies have explored it from the macrolevel (e.g. economic policy uncertainty) perspective. This research draws attention to the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firms' strategic change.

Design/methodology/approach

This research empirically tests hypotheses based on a sample of listed firms in China during the period between 2010 and 2017.

Findings

Based on real options theory, the authors theorize and find that economic policy uncertainty will negatively affect firms' strategic change through the mediating effect of CEO turnover. Moreover, organizational inertia will strengthen the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on CEO turnover and will weaken the positive impact of CEO turnover on firms' strategic change.

Originality/value

First, this research contributes to the strategic change literature by demonstrating the important impact of economic policy uncertainty on firms' strategic change. Second, this research expands the literature on the economic consequences of economic policy uncertainty. Third, this research clarifies the path and boundary conditions of economic policy uncertainty affecting strategic change by introducing the mediating effects of CEO turnover and the moderating effects of organizational inertia.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 25 October 2021

Zhaoyu Ku, Qiwen Xue, Gaping Wang and Shuang Liu

Aiming at the problems of poor accuracy and limitation in strength assessment of spot welding vehicle body caused by uncertain factors, such as key component size and…

Abstract

Purpose

Aiming at the problems of poor accuracy and limitation in strength assessment of spot welding vehicle body caused by uncertain factors, such as key component size and nugget diameter, the numerical models of strength uncertainty analysis of spot-welded joints were constructed based on evidence theory and fuzzy theory.

Design/methodology/approach

Evidence theory and fuzzy theory are used to deal with the uncertainty of design parameter, and differential evolution algorithms are used to calculate the propagation process of uncertainty in this model. Furthermore, efficient relationship between the strength of welded joints and each design parameter is constructed by using response surface proxy model, which effectively avoids the problem of repeated complex finite element analysis in uncertainty analysis.

Findings

The results show that the constructed uncertainty numerical model is effective for the multiple uncertainties and give interval results under different probabilities and affiliations, which can more effectively evaluate the strength of the welded body structure to avoid overly conservative estimates for deterministic design.

Originality/value

The evidence theory is improved and combined with differential evolution algorithm and response surface method to effectively improve the computational efficiency. Based on the improved evidence theory and fuzzy algorithm, the numerical models for the uncertainty analysis of solder joint strength of welded structures are constructed and their feasibility is verified.

Details

International Journal of Structural Integrity, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-9864

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 15 November 2021

Jun Sik Kim

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the mean-variance relationship. We find that the stock market's expected excess return is positively related to the…

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the mean-variance relationship. We find that the stock market's expected excess return is positively related to the market's conditional variances and implied variance during low uncertainty periods but unrelated or negatively related to conditional variances and implied variance during high uncertainty periods. Our empirical evidence is consistent with investors' attitudes toward uncertainty and risk, firms' fundamentals and leverage effects varying with uncertainty. Additionally, we discover that the negative relationship between returns and contemporaneous innovations of conditional variance and the positive relationship between returns and contemporaneous innovations of implied variance are significant during low uncertainty periods. Furthermore, our results are robust to changing the base assets to mimic the uncertainty factor and removing the effect of investor sentiment.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 18 November 2021

David M. Herold, Sara Saberi, Mahtab Kouhizadeh and Simon Wilde

In response, the purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical frameworks about the organizational uncertainty behind what and when to adopt blockchain technology and…

Abstract

Purpose

In response, the purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical frameworks about the organizational uncertainty behind what and when to adopt blockchain technology and their implications on transaction costs. The immature nature and the absence of standards in blockchain technology lead to uncertainty in government organizations concerning the adoption (“what to adopt”) and the identification of the right time (“when to start”).

Design/methodology/approach

Using transaction cost theory and path dependency theory, this paper proposes two frameworks: to assess transaction cost risks and opportunities costs; and to depict four different types of transaction costs outcomes regarding blockchain adoption.

Findings

This paper identifies various theoretical concepts that influence blockchain adoption and combine the two critical constructs of “bounded rationality” and the “lock-in effect” to categorize the multiple transaction costs outcomes for blockchain adoption.

Research limitations/implications

Although existing research in blockchain highlights mainly the potential benefits of blockchain applications, only a little attention has been given to frameworks that categorize potential transaction costs outcomes under uncertainty, in particular from organizational theorists.

Originality/value

Both frameworks advance the understanding of the decision-making behind blockchain adoption and synthesize the current literature to offer conceptual clarity regarding the varied implications and outcomes linked to the uncertainty regarding transactions costs stemming from blockchain technology.

Details

Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-5364

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Article
Publication date: 10 June 2020

Nick French

An understanding of uncertainty has always been an integral part of property valuations. No valuation is certain, and the valuer needs to convey to the user of the…

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Abstract

Purpose

An understanding of uncertainty has always been an integral part of property valuations. No valuation is certain, and the valuer needs to convey to the user of the valuation in the degree of uncertainty pertaining to the market value.

Design/methodology/approach

This practice briefing is a short overview of the importance of understanding uncertainty in valuation in normal markets and the particular difficulties now with the material uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Findings

This paper discusses how important it is for the valuer and the client to communicate and understand the uncertainty in the market at any point of time. The COVID-19 has had a significant impact on property values and the importance of clarity within valuation reports.

Practical implications

This paper looks at the importance of placing capital and rental value changes due to material uncertainty in valuation reports.

Originality/value

This provides guidance on how professional bodies are advising their members, around the world, on how to report valuations and market value in the context of material uncertainty.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 38 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 7 October 2021

Sudeshna Ghosh

This study explores the response of consumer confidence in policy uncertainty in the Japanese context. The study also considers the dynamism of stock market behavior and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study explores the response of consumer confidence in policy uncertainty in the Japanese context. The study also considers the dynamism of stock market behavior and financial stress and its impact on consumer confidence, which has remained unaddressed in the literature. The role of these control variables has important implications for policy discussions, particularly when other countries can learn from Japanese experiences.

Design/methodology/approach

The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model postulated by Shin et al. (2014) was used for studying the asymmetric response of consumer confidence to policy uncertainty. This method has improved estimates compared to traditional linear cointegration methods.

Findings

The findings confirm the asymmetric impact of policy uncertainty on the consumer confidence index in Japan. The impact of the rise in policy uncertainty is greater than that of a fall in asymmetry on consumer confidence in Japan. Furthermore, the Wald test confirmed asymmetric behavior.

Originality/value

The contribution of this study is threefold. First, this study contributes to the extant literature by analyzing the asymmetric response of consumer confidence to policy uncertainty, controlling for both the financial stress and stock price indices. Second, to test the robustness of the exercise, the study utilized different frequencies of observations. Third, this study is the first to utilize the concept of Arbatli et al. (2017) to formulate a combined index of uncertainty based on economic policy uncertainty index, along with uncertainty indices such as fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policies to study the overall impact of policy uncertainty.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

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Article
Publication date: 13 October 2021

Muhammad Saeed Meo, Kiran Jameel, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury and Sajid Ali

The purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty on Islamic financial markets. For representing Islamic financial markets…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty on Islamic financial markets. For representing Islamic financial markets four different Islamic indices (DJ Islamic index, DJ Islamic Asia–Pacific index, DJ Islamic-Europe index and DJ Islamic-US) are taken.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs quantile-on-quantile regression approach to see the overall dependence structure of variables based on quarterly data ranging from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. This technique considers how quantiles of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty asymmetrically affect the quantiles of Islamic stocks by giving an appropriate framework to apprehend the overall dependence structure.

Findings

The findings of the study confirm a strong negative impact of world uncertainty and world pandemic uncertainty on regional Islamic stock indices but the strength of the relationship varies according to economic conditions and across the regions. However, the world pandemic effect remains the same and does not change. Conversely, pandemic uncertainty has a larger effect on Islamic indices as compared to world uncertainty.

Practical implications

Our findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers to take proper steps before any uncertainty arise. A coalition of the central bank, government officials and investment bank regulators would be needed to tackle this challenge of uncertainty.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, none of the current works has considered the asymmetric impact of world and pandemic uncertainties on Islamic stock markets at both the bottom and upper quantiles of the distribution of data.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

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Article
Publication date: 22 September 2021

Sylvia Veronica Siregar and Siti Nurwahyuningsih Harahap

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of business uncertainty on the information technology (IT) governance of listed firms in Indonesia.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of business uncertainty on the information technology (IT) governance of listed firms in Indonesia.

Design/methodology/approach

The samples are listed firms in Indonesia Stock Exchange for the years 2015–2018. Total observations are 1,215 firm years. The authors used the random effect panel regression to test the hypotheses.

Findings

The authors find that business uncertainty has a significant positive association with IT governance, consistent with the prediction. Companies with higher business uncertainty are in higher demand for implementing IT governance.

Originality/value

The authors have not found previous studies that examine business uncertainty as to the determinant of IT governance. The authors also examined the IT governance in Indonesia, one of the emerging countries. Most previous studies on IT governance were conducted in developed countries, which results may not be generalized to emerging countries.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

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