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This study assesses the probability of an OECD member country exhibiting high persistence in unemployment duration, considering income inequality, productivity, accumulation of human capital and labor income share in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between the years 2013–2019.

To achieve the purpose of the study, a probabilistic analysis with panel data is employed, focusing on 20 OECD countries segmented into two groups: those with high persistence and low persistence in unemployment duration. Probit and Logit models are estimated, marginal changes are analyzed and the models are evaluated in terms of their classification accuracy. Finally, trends in probabilities over time are examined.

This paper exhibits that countries with higher human capital index, greater labor income share in GDP, and more relevant productivity for well-being reduce their probabilities of experiencing high persistence in unemployment duration. It is observed that Mexico (MEX), Greece (GRC), Italy (ITA), and Turkey (TUR) have elevated probabilities of experiencing high persistence in unemployment duration in the future, while Costa Rica (CRI), Estonia (EST), Slovakia (SVK), Czech Republic (CZE), Lithuania (LTU), Poland (POL), and Israel (ISR) show a marked downward trend in these probabilities. Lastly, countries like the United Kingdom (GBR), Denmark (DNK), Sweden (SWE), Norway (NOR), Netherlands (NLD), Germany (DEU), United States (USA), and Canada (CAN) present minimal risk of experiencing high persistence in unemployment duration in the future.

The measurement of the relationship between development outcomes and persistence in unemployment duration has been scarce. Generally, the literature has focused on the analysis of development and unemployment without delving into the duration of unemployment, let alone persistence in duration.

This paper provides a solid foundation for the formulation of policies aimed at promoting sustainable employment and inclusive economic growth.

Based on the findings of the study, two key development policies are proposed. Firstly, the implementation of investment programs in Human Capital to increase productivity is recommended. Resources should be directed towards initiatives that improve the necessary skills and competencies in the labor markets of OECD countries, especially in strategic economic sectors with higher production linkages. Additionally, incentivizing the application of active labor policies is proposed. This entails prioritizing policies aimed at increasing the labor income share in GDP through progressive fiscal reforms that strengthen social safety nets and ensure fair labor standards. Implementing employment programs targeted at vulnerable groups, such as long-term unemployed individuals, youth, female heads of households and marginalized communities, is also recommended to eliminate structural barriers to labor market participation and reduce disparities in unemployment persistence. Adopting these policies can help mitigate the risk of high unemployment duration persistence and foster sustainable and inclusive long-term economic growth.

This is the first study to analyze the probabilities of both developing and developed countries experiencing high persistence in unemployment duration. It specifically evaluates these probabilities over a period of time and also estimates potential outcomes if real investments were made to enhance their human capital, productivity and employability.

In this research, we explore the dynamics among measures of income inequality in the USA, male and female unemployment rates, and growth in government transfer using time series data.

This research adopts a macro-econometric approach to estimate a structural VAR model using time series data.

Our structural impulse responses found that growth in government transfer increases unemployment rates for both males and females. Female income inequality declines with increased government transfer. When the female income ratio rises, we observe that government transfer outlays fall over the forecast horizon. Variance decomposition finds that growth in government transfers is impacted by the male unemployment rate relatively more than the female unemployment rate. This research, therefore, suggests gender-specific government transfers to reduce income inequality. This, in effect, may reduce government transfer outlays over time.

This research, therefore, suggests gender-specific government transfers to reduce income inequality. This, in effect, may reduce government transfer outlays over time.

This research investigates the dynamics among income inequality, government transfer, and unemployment rates. There is a dearth of research articles that adopt a macro-econometric in this area.

There is strong empirical evidence that unemployment rates decrease as the educational level rises. The present article attempts to take explicit account of this when estimating educational rates of return. Three models that differ with respect to their degree of simplicity and data requirements are developed herein and applied to the empirical data. The estimates for 14 European countries suggest that standard estimates that do not account for unemployment are substantially downward biased. Differences in unemployment probabilities at different educational levels, and youth unemployment, both appear to be important for a better understanding of the incentive structure behind educational decisions.

The paper aims to study the effect of the unemployment rate and its volatility on crime in the USA. It proposes that not only the unemployment rate, but also its volatility affect the crime.

First, the volatility of the unemployment rate is calculated using ARCH models. Next, using the results from the first stage the ARDL approach to cointegration is used to examine the link between the unemployment rate and its volatility on the crime.

The cointegrated or long‐run relationships are found only for burglary and motor‐vehicle theft. The results indicate that the unemployment rate has a significant effect on burglary and motor‐vehicle theft only in the short run and the unemployment volatility has a negative effect on motor‐vehicle theft regardless of time span. However, it has a positive effect on burglary in the short run and no effect in the long run.

The effect of unemployment rate on crime is documented in the literature. However, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that emphasizes the importance of unemployment rate volatility on the crime.

This paper aims to provide an account of the unemployment performance of two Nordic countries during their recent labour market booms and slumps.

Based on the empirical models of Karanassou et al., we conduct dynamic simulation exercises and explore the determinants of unemployment.

The analysis yields two main findings. First, the capital stock was the most important determinant of the unemployment trajectory in both countries. This result appears in all periods considered: in the slump of the early 1990s and the boom of the late 1990s, as well as in the stabilisation period of the early 2000s. Second, the role of the foreign sector on the unemployment trajectory was significant in Finland, its quantitative impact being one‐third of the effect for the capital stock in the first and third periods, and half of the latter in the second period.

The results illustrate the importance of non‐standard labour market variables in examining unemployment trajectories. The findings call for a wider than usual perspective in trying to solve the unemployment problem.

Estimates a three‐equation model to test various economic hypotheses regarding the relationship between unemployment rate and defence spending in 18 OECD countries during the period 1962‐1988. Reveals that the relationship which exists between unemployment rate and defence spending is not uniform across countries. Defence spending has a favourable impact on unemployment rate in Germany and Australia, whereas in Denmark it worsens the employment situation. In Australia, Germany and Belgium, non‐defence spending and the unemployment rate are causally independent. Defence spending appears to act as a stablization tool in response to changes in the unemployment rate only in the UK. No significant causal relationship between unemployment rate and either type of spending is revealed in Japan, The Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Austria, New Zealand, Sweden, Canada and the USA. Observes a few cases of bi‐directional causality between unemployment rate and defence/non‐defence spending. Gives possible explanations for the observed cross‐country variability in causal relation.

Asian countries have had persistent unemployment levels. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of government spending on unemployment. Furthermore, this paper investigates the moderating role of institutional quality on the government spending–unemployment nexus.

Using data from 35 Asian countries from 2000 to 2022, the dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares technique is used to tackle with aforementioned issue. In addition, pooled mean group estimation is applied to verify the robustness of the findings.

The results show that an increase in government expenditure and better institutions reduce the unemployment rate. Interestingly, the negative impact of government expenditure on unemployment will enhance and intensify with better institutional quality. Furthermore, trade openness and foreign direct investment decrease unemployment in Asian countries. The results are robust to various specifications.

Findings from this study provide important implications for governments. Governments should use public expenditure efficiently and enhance and improve institutional quality to reduce unemployment.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study pioneers the investigation of the moderating role of institutional quality in the relationship between government expenditure and unemployment in Asian countries.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of governance quality on total unemployment in general and female unemployment in particular in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comparing the post-Arab Spring period to the pre-Arab Spring era.

A fixed-effects model was used to analyze data from 15 MENA countries from 2002 to 2019.

Our results generally indicate that following the Arab Spring, an enhancement in governance quality is linked with a reduction in unemployment in the MENA region, specifically in the Levant and GCC regions, with this reducing effect being stronger for female unemployment compared to total unemployment. Yet, this trend does not hold in North Africa, where government improvements do not result in better employment.

This study uniquely uncovers the different effects of governance quality on unemployment across sub-regions and sheds light on its significant implications on female unemployment. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers interested in the relationship between governance quality and economic outcomes in the region.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-12-2022-0826

The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and data science (DS) on unemployment rates across ten high-income economies from 2015 to 2023.

This study takes a unique approach by employing a dynamic panel data (DPD) model with a generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to address potential biases. The methodology includes extensive validation through Sargan, Hansen, and Arellano-Bond tests, ensuring the robustness of the results and adding a novel perspective to the field of AI and unemployment dynamics.

The study’s findings are paramount, challenging prevailing concerns in AI, ML, and DS, demonstrating an insignificant impact on unemployment and contradicting common fears of job loss due to these technologies. The analysis also reveals a positive correlation (0.298) between larger government size and higher unemployment, suggesting bureaucratic inefficiencies that may hinder job growth. Conversely, a negative correlation (−0.201) between increased labour productivity and unemployment suggests that technological advancements can promote job creation by enhancing efficiency. These results refute the notion that technology inherently leads to job losses, positioning AI and related technologies as drivers of innovation and expansion within the labour market.

The study’s findings suggest a promising outlook, positioning AI as a catalyst for the expansion and metamorphosis of employment rather than solely a catalyst for automation and job displacement. This insight presents a significant opportunity for AI and related technologies to improve labour markets and strategically mitigate unemployment. To harness the benefits of technological progress effectively, authorities and enterprises must carefully evaluate the balance between government spending and its impact on unemployment. This proposed strategy can potentially reinvent governmental initiatives and stimulate investment in AI, thereby bolstering economic and labour market reliability.

The results provide significant perspectives for policymakers and direct further investigations on the influence of AI on labour markets. The analysis results contradict the common belief of technology job loss. The study’s results are shown to be reliable by the Sargan, Hansen, and Arellano-Bond tests. It adds to the discussion on the role of AI in the future of work, proposing a detailed effect of AI on employment and promoting a strategic method for integrating AI into the labour market.

This study investigates the effect of business cycles on school enrollment in Turkey. During recessions, school enrollment might increase as opportunity cost of schooling declines, yet it might also decrease because of reduced income households have for education. Which effect dominates depends on the context. We empirically explore this in a context displaying canonical features of developing countries.

Using the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey data for a period covering the Great Recession, we estimate the effect of unemployment rate separately for enrollments in general and vocational high schools and in undergraduate programs. To understand the cyclicality, we use a probit model with the regional and time variations in unemployment rates. We also build a simple theoretical model of work-schooling choice to interpret the findings.

We find that the likelihood of enrolling in general high schools and undergraduate programs declines with higher adult unemployment rates, but the likelihood of enrollment in vocational high schools increases. Confronting these empirical findings with the theoretical model suggests that the major factor in enrollment cyclicality in Turkey is how parental resources allocated to education change during recessions by schooling type.

Our finding of pro-cyclical enrollment in academically oriented programs is in contrast with counter-cyclicality documented for similar programs in developed countries, which highlights the importance of income related factors in developing-country contexts. Our heterogeneous findings for general and vocational high schools are also novel.