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The learning outcomes are as follows: introduce the concept of the decision-making process, decision-making unit and hierarchy of effects and marketing strategy; identify the critical aspect of segmentation, targeting and positioning; and highlight the critical element of pricing and communication media.

In early January 2017, Mr Ashish and Mr Rahul, co-founders of Biziga, a company engaged in training through simulation for management education, was at crossroads. Keeping in view the challenges of the emerging Indian market, Biziga envisioned creating participant-centric business learning simulations. The initial responses and feedback received from several top B-schools were promising. However, the euphoria did not last long. Biziga retained only a few of its initial clients from the Tier-1 B-schools who had adopted the product. But the response received from other categories of B-schools was not very encouraging. Acquiring new clients from these institutes was the major challenge. The founders of Biziga had differences in their thought about the strategic path they should pursue to achieve future growth. There were several options to achieve the goal of a target revenue of INR 1bn in the next five years and be known as a virtual gamification company with a complete bundle of business simulation products. They had to finalize for the financial year 2017-18 the most feasible and promising option/s that would have a long-term impact on the company’s future growth and success in the upcoming meeting scheduled in the last week of February 2017.

Postgraduate students and executive students.

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CSS 8: Marketing.

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

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CSS 7: Management Science.

The learning outcomes of this paper are as follows: to understand the context of seaport logistics and supply chain design structure, to apply Monte Carlo simulation in the interface of the supply chain and to analyze the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm and statistical techniques for identifying the key seaport logistics factors.

It was 9:00 p.m. on November 10, 2020, and Nishadh Amonkar, the CEO of OCTO supply chain management (SCM) was glued to the television watching the final cricket match of the Indian Premier League, 2020. Amonkar’s mobile phone rang and it was a call from Vinod Nair, a member Logistics Panel of Ranji Industries Federation. Nair informed Amonkar that it was related to the rejection of several export consignments of agricultural products from Ranji (in the western part of India). The rejection was due to the deterioration in the quality of the exported agricultural products during transit from Ranji to various locations in Europe.

This course is suitable at the MBA level for the following courses: Operations research (Focus/Session: Applications on Monte Carlo Simulation). SCM (Focus/Session: Global SCM, Logistics Planning, Distribution Network). Logistics management (Focus/Session: Transportation Planning). Business statistics (Focus/Session: Application of Hypothesis Testing).

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CSS 9: Operations and logistics.

Spiegel Online (www.spiegel.de) is the leading news Web site in Germany. The site was first designed to accompany Der Spiegel, one of Europe's largest and Germany's most influential weekly magazine, which has a weekly circulation of around one million. The site's content is produced by a team of more than fifty journalists writing in several categories: politics, business, networld, panorama, arts and entertainment, science, university, school, sports, travel, weather, and automobiles. The original content is complemented by articles purchased from news agencies and selected articles from the print edition. Spiegel-Verlag is a major contributor to the Hamburg Media School, which offers professional master's degree programs in Media Management (MBA), film, and journalism. In their second year, MBA students typically engage in consulting projects with major media companies. In a recent assignment, Spiegel Online posed two questions to the MBA team: are there any chances for an economically successful entry into the market for interactive classifieds? And if so, what should the business model look like in detail? A student team analyzed markets for classified ads and found one market segment that appeared to be particularly promising: the market for art objects. During the development of a business plan for a new venture in this market it became apparent that there is much uncertainty about the key input parameters to the business plan. As a result, it is very difficult to assess the viability of the business idea. How can the team properly account for the uncertain input parameters? What is the impact of this uncertainty on the bottom line? Will a Web site for art objects earn or lose money? How can the team communicate this uncertainty to a group of high-level decision makers who want a simple “go or no-go” recommendation?

The objective is to make students aware of the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation to the analysis of complex business plans. Students should learn how to explicitly account for uncertain inputs in a business plan, how to assess the impact of uncertainty on the bottom line via Monte Carlo simulation, and how to communicate the results of their analysis to high-level decision makers.

Josh Williams is a Student at the NAU who has driven buses on campus and wants to improve the transportation on campus. He is convinced that purchasing a new type of bus that is more fuel efficient, has larger capacity, better designed for boarding, and has a longer life is worth the higher purchase cost. He sets out to prove it by creating a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Since many of the estimates for the DCF analysis are uncertain, he decides to perform a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) analysis. Students are asked to step into Josh’s role and perform the analysis.

Josh Williams was a Student in the authors’ MBA program. Both authors teach in this program and one author was the Advisor for Net Impact and worked with Josh to present his idea to the university administration. The authors have changed a name or two but otherwise, the case describes a real situation in a real organization without disguise.

The authors have used this case in a first semester MBA-Applied Management course, Decision Modeling and Simulation. Students already have experience with DCF analysis and have been introduced to MCS. With this case, students apply MCS at the conclusion of a three-week module on predictive analytics. Students have run at least two MCS models and have become comfortable with the software. The case would also be appropriate for a senior-level undergraduate course such as business analytics or management science. It might also be useful for other courses that include the MCS modeling technique learning objectives such as project management.

This case provides an opportunity for students to perform an MCS analysis. MCS is useful when many of the inputs to a DCF analysis (or any model) have been estimated and the modeler is concerned that the estimates are uncertain and could perhaps be a range of values. MCS can be used to understand the effect of this uncertainty on NPV which in turn may affect the decision. The case could also be used without MCS focusing just on the DCF analysis with deterministic sensitivity analysis.

Align Inc. is a start-up company with a revolutionary, patent-protected new technology for straightening teeth called Invisalign. Invisalign is a set of invisible plastic aligners made to each patient's specific needs that substitute for metal or ceramic braces in adults (it is not sold for children's orthodontic needs). The company has created tremendous consumer awareness and affect for its product, yet sales results are dismal. Requires the reader to analyze the reasons for such poor sales and what to do to remedy the problem.

To examine distribution channel issues as well as the marketing mix for a new product introduction.

Students should be able to: identify the elements of business processes; analyze efficiency measures; identify and define causes of poor efficiency in business process; analyze the results of a simulation model; propose process redesign alternatives based on the analysis; and acknowledge the challenges for improving public service processes.

The process to get a passport seems to be very simple, but Jose Hernandez, a Manufacturing Plant Director, has had bad experiences the past three times he has visited the passport office. He and his family have spent more than 3 h to get the passport for his little daughter, Maria. In this case, the authors illustrate the process analysis performed by Jose to find effective and efficient solutions to the problems that he found. The case study guides students through the analysis of a business process in public service from the perspective of the users. The students participating in the case analysis will not only learn to diagnose and describe the process but also to redesign it to achieve significant improvements. Furthermore, the students will realize that adding more resources to the process may not solve the fundamental issues, but analytical and creative skills are needed. In addition, the teaching notes provide a discussion about the existing challenges to improve public service processes.

Management and engineering undergraduate programs, operations management and business process design in Master of Business Administration programs.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS 9: Operations and Logistics.

Upon completion of the case study, the students will be able to find the challenges and underlying structures that cause the problem; the students will be able to identify the dynamic variables and develop the interconnection and interlinkages among the time-delayed variables to build the story of the business case; the students could develop the block diagram and could build the system dynamics model using the simulation software STELLA, and if they do not have the simulation software, even then they could have a mental model to understand the problem well; the system dynamics students can design the policies to make the system better behaved and recommend solutions; and the students could make mind maps and develop the mental model and could recommend solutions and way forward to overcome the challenges and solve the issues.

Tradeasia is a small-scale manufacturing firm that had started its business activities near Sundar Industrial Estate, Raiwind, in September 2007. The company’s prime focus was to buy the potato starch from chips manufacturing companies and, then, extract the potato starch from the waste potato using its own machinery and sell it as a sizing agent to textile mills. Quality characteristics in terms of better millage and enhanced gullibility made it compatible with Rafhan corn-based starch. The major challenge linked to potato starch was its degree of wetness; the potato starch either extracted from rotten potato or procured from the potato chips manufacturing companies had a high degree of wetness and moisture content. Wet potato starch sometimes had more than 60% moisture content, which was really a challenge. Owing to the high degree of wetness, the wet starch was prone to fungus growth, and within hours, the fungus created toxins if it was not dried immediately, and then after 24 h, toxins acquired a black colour, and they became hardened like pebbles. The starch then was unusable even for sizing purposes for textile products. Reduction in the degree of wetness was really a big challenge and demanded prompt action and high productivity of the operational staff to make that product dry for sale purposes. This was the biggest challenge that ended up in huge inventories of wet starch. Capacity constraints and operational inefficiency killed the company’s productivity and affected the company’s profit.

This case study is written and developed for MBA and MS-level supply chain students of the system dynamics course or those studying management of supply chain complexities. This case study discusses the operational challenges while running the business; huge inventories, capacity constraints and inefficiency in production operations were the challenges associated with almost all manufacturing industries. This case study discussed not only why such challenges are appearing in the business but also the solution that resided in the wisdom shared by the employees in the board meeting. An integrated system dynamics model could be used to design the policies to overcome such challenges. Even the block diagram of the model and causal loop diagram could help to conceptualize the problem and explore the way forward.

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CSS 7: Management science.

Agile software development, Knowledge workers and Lean thinking as a management system

The case lends itself to students of business management, or aspiring consultants, who have been exposed to operations management in general and Lean thinking specifically. It is an advanced case study, assuming prior knowledge in these subjects and approaches the subject matter from an organisational development point of view, rather than a pure operations point of view. It is thus well suited to an elective on operational excellence on an MBA or in executive education courses in Lean thinking

The case starts with Mark, manager of a software development team, hearing that he will have budget for two new developers who will join his team in the coming year. While the extra help could be useful, he was considering what the impact of new people would be on the productivity of the team, which he felt was already stretched. Mark continues to consider the entire development chain and how code changes were implemented to ACSESim’s (the company’s primary product) graphical user interfaces. Having recently been acquired by an American company, he was also under pressure to start to adopt some of the parent company’s systems, which would constitute a fairly disruptive, but necessary, change, particularly for future collaborations with other developers in the parent company. With two new developers, experience taught Mark that development could slow down owing to training efforts. To minimise disruption, he was wondering about how to get the new developers up-to-speed quickly and streamline their operations within a changing corporate environment. The case highlights the different mechanisms that were in place at ACSESim, including the use of issue trackers; Kanban boards; version control software; automated systems; stand-up meetings, etc. Each of these mechanisms is discussed briefly and shows the value they added to the development practices that were in place. This also allows students to understand Agile practices and what Lean thinking might mean in a knowledge work environment and then to consider what the proposed changes might mean and how they could be deployed.

To gain an understanding of how Lean and Agile principles can be applied in a software development environment and Lean knowledge work in general To consider the best way to manage new hires so that they can become productive in a Lean or Agile software development environment, whilst dealing with pressures to migrate to new systems.

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CSS: 9: Operations and Logistics.

A regional director of a consulting firm must decide how to compete for a major consulting contract. Appshop can take a level payment contract, a lower level payment with a prospective bonus given high performance, or bid on an RFP where a significant reward is given contingent on the client's savings. The case can be used to introduce Monte Carlo simulation modeling and to build skills in structuring a decision tree in a spreadsheet. It affords an opportunity to simulate alternative risk profiles and to discuss their comparative advantages.