Search results

The world has seen significant level of emergence of the developing nations over the years. But the world has been going through certain economic crises – be it the worldwide recession of 2008 – that had a worldwide impact, be it the ongoing depression in economic activities since 2018–2019 due to several economic issues. Under these circumstances, how far these developing nations have been able to cope up with is an issue of worry. Can they overcome these depressions or recessions and get on the sustainable path of progress again and compete at par with the developed nations? In this chapter, we have used multiple regression analysis to analyse how far and to what extent these recessions have had impact on the exchange rates (ERs) and other important variables, including growth, of the selected eight developing nations. By taking ER as our dependent variable and five important macroeconomic indicators as regressors, we have checked if the recession caused any structural breaks in these economies or not. We have found the significant impact of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and trade balance on ER, while the effects of net foreign direct investment (FDI) and rate of interest were not significant. By applying Chow test, we have seen that there is existence of structural breaks in these economies over the period of 2007–2010. These breaks can be attributed to the global recession as well as economic activities prior to the recession. We have also conducted few diagnostic tests to prove the robustness of our analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to assess sub-national business cycle (BC) synchronization's impact on national cycles in four emerging markets economies with inflation targeting (IT-EMEs): Brazil, Colombia, South Korea and Mexico.

The authors use panel data models with fixed-effects and distributed lags.

The authors disclosed that sub-national synchronization increased national cycle amplitudes during expansion and recession phases. The authors also noticed that South Korea exhibited a more pronounced effect compared to Latin American countries, and this seemed to be associated with differences in the homogeneity of the production structures in the regions of these countries.

The authors cautioned that contrasting the findings with prior research on the effects of regional BC synchronization in IT-EMEs or with studies in different geographical contexts, is not possible due to the absence of prior research endeavors with this specific focus.

This study constitutes a first attempt to explain the impact of subnational cycle synchronization on the magnitude of national cycles in four IT-EMEs.

In February 2018, Jerome Powell had taken over as chair of the FOMC. At first glance, the macroeconomic conditions inherited by Powell appeared favorable for continued stability: unemployment and inflation were low, and the economy had been steadily growing for nearly a decade. Yet despite the appearance of stability, the economy faced significant risks that required the Federal Reserve's attention. Was an uptick in inflation imminent, and if so, should Powell raise rates to limit any inflationary pressure? Or was the economy still operating below capacity, and if so, should the Federal Reserve take a more accommodative stance? To gain perspective, Powell needed to look back at the past fifty years of monetary policy in the United States.

‘Subjective well-being comprises of people's emotional responses, domain satisfactions, and global judgements of life satisfaction’ (Diener et al., 1999). The health-related Sustainable Development Goal (SDG-3) aims to ensure ‘good health and well-being’ for all, over the globe. The World Happiness Report (2022) reported a highly significant relation between the SDG-3 and the subjective well-being scores and hence for the improvement of citizen well-being suggested for a holistic approach to economic development. The present chapter examines the impact of global economic crisis 2008–09 on the subjective well-being using time series data for six selected countries for the time period 2004–2019. Considering the crisis as an ‘intervention’, this chapter performs interrupted time series analysis for single- and multiple-group (country) comparisons. The single group analysis finds that in the immediate year of crisis, there appeared to be significant decrease in subjective well-being, followed by a significant decrease in the annual trend subjective well-being relative to pre-crisis for most of the countries. In case of multiple group analysis, the regression results reveal that initial mean level difference between any country and remaining countries was significant for most of the countries. The difference in the subjective well-being trend between a particular country and remaining countries after initiation of the crisis compared to pre-crisis period has appeared to be significantly negative for all the countries considered in the analysis.

Exploration and exploitation have long been documented as prominent approaches to business management and organizational adaptation to external environment. Maintaining balance between these activities is a key to survival and prosperity. However, there is little direct evidence of the effect of such combined usage of both approaches on firm performance in times of crisis, especially within small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The purpose of this paper is to reveal the role of balanced ambidexterity in shaping firm performance during COVID-19 recession.

Based on a survey of 333 Russian SMEs, the authors test the proposed theoretical framework linking innovative ambidexterity to firm performance level and variability taking into account technological uncertainty.

The results show that innovative ambidexterity tends to increase level and decrease variability of performance outcomes, whereas technological uncertainty acts as a positive contingency for this impact.

The results provide an improved understanding of ambidexterity and organizational literatures by clarifying the contingent nature of the ambidexterity–firm performance relationship during COVID-19 recession.

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

South Africa had formally introduced a policy of inflation targeting (IT) in February 2000. By December 2001, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, after reading the latest statistics, was concerned with the disappointing economic data. Economic activity had slowed drastically, to the point that the country appeared to be heading for a recession. The gloomy statistics forced the governor to consider whether the country had pursued the right policy. Persistently high unemployment, one legacy of the apartheid era, meant that South Africa did not have the luxury of waiting for new policies to bear fruit. With the inflation forecast to exceed the mandated target, the governor would have to tighten monetary policy, which would further restrict investment. Was it is time for South Africa to change course?

In 2017, it was a challenge to assess the future of global trade. It was an open question whether the US financial crisis and the recession that it triggered would mark a turning point for the liberal post–World War II world order. If one looked toward Europe, China, Latin America, and Japan, there was a flurry of activity. New trade agreements were being completed and pursued. In Washington, DC, on the other hand, President Donald Trump seemed set on ripping apart and/or renegotiating any trade deal the United States was ever part of.

This case explores Trump's opinions and emerging policy stance on trade, bilateralism, and the global economy, among others. It also gives an overview of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and asks whether the Trump presidency would constitute a major challenge to the WTO and what it stood for in 2017.