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1 – 10 of over 4000Farid Irani, Abobaker Al.Al. Hadood, Salih Katircioglu and Setareh Katircioglu
This paper focuses on the role of sentiment and monetary policy (both domestic and the United States (US)) in explaining the changes in the Mexican tourism firms' stock returns…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper focuses on the role of sentiment and monetary policy (both domestic and the United States (US)) in explaining the changes in the Mexican tourism firms' stock returns for the period 1998M03–2019M12.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted the ordinary least square regression estimations using various models to investigate the impact of sentiment and monetary policy changes on tourism firms' stock returns. Furthermore, to provide a robust check, the authors run all regression models based on the capital asset pricing model by regressing the excess returns of tourism firms' stocks on all independent variables.
Findings
Empirical findings reveal that the changes in Mexican consumer sentiment have a stronger positive effect on tourism firms' stock returns than Mexican business sentiment changes. However, the US consumer and business sentiment are irrelevant to tourism firms' stock returns. Moreover, this study’s results indicate that changes in the US interest rates positively influence tourism firms' stock returns. This study’s findings show that as the monetary divergence between Mexico and the US (differential real interest rates) widens, the lower is the tourism firms' stock returns.
Originality/value
This study is the first to extend the prior studies by examining the effects of sentiment and monetary policy (both domestic and US role) on Mexican tourism stock return.
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Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.
Originality/value
This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.
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Hedi Ben Haddad, Sohale Altamimi, Imed Mezghani and Imed Medhioub
This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic…
Abstract
Purpose
This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic fluctuations and forecast economic trends.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts an extension of the Jurado et al. (2015) procedure by combining financial uncertainty factors with their net spillover effects on GDP and inflation to construct an aggregate financial uncertainty index. The authors consider 13 monthly financial variables for Saudi Arabia from January 2010 to June 2021.
Findings
The empirical results show that the constructed financial uncertainty estimates are good leading indicators of economic activity. The robustness analysis suggests that the authors’ proposed financial uncertainty estimators outperform the alternative estimates used by other existing approaches to estimate the financial conditions index.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at constructing a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This study extends the empirical literature, from which the authors propose a novel conceptual framework for building a financial uncertainty index by combining the approach of Jurado et al. (2015) and the time-varying connectedness network approach proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020)
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Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction…
Abstract
Purpose
Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy until the post-financial crisis, leaving a gap in the analysis of how government consumption affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This motivates this paper to analyse how government consumption affects the dynamics of a small open economy, once the former is included in a non-separable form to the utility function. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this issue has not been addressed by the literature, and the authors aim to do so in this paper.
Design/methodology/approach
A standard New Keynesian model for a small open economy is used to allow for the presence of non-separable government consumption in the utility function. The model is supported by panel regressions.
Findings
The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The degree of openness dampens the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it. Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.
Originality/value
The effect of government consumption on the transmission mechanism of MP has not been addressed in the literature. This paper contributes to the literature by addressing this issue.
Highlights:
• The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.
• The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.
• Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.
• The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.
• The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.
• Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.
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Faris ALshubiri, Amina Ahmed ALmaashani and Sharqoof Musallam Thuaar
Digitalisation has become closely related to various economic sectors in terms of economic impact and discovery of new technologies. In this regard, this study aims to examine the…
Abstract
Purpose
Digitalisation has become closely related to various economic sectors in terms of economic impact and discovery of new technologies. In this regard, this study aims to examine the relationship between the digital economy, as measured by four proxies (infrastructure, empowerment of society, technological economic growth and digitalisation development), and the productivity and monetary system of Oman from 1985 to 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
The autoregressive distributed lag methodology and diagnostic tests were used to increase the robustness of findings.
Findings
The analysis showed significant positive long-run relationships between infrastructure (measured as the number of fixed telephone subscriptions), technological economic growth (measured as medium- and high-tech exports as a percentage of manufactured exports) and the monetary system. There was also a significant negative short-run relationship between digitalisation development, measured as the number of individuals (percentage of the population) using the internet, and the monetary system. Furthermore, there were significant positive short- and long-run relationships between digitalisation development and productivity. Only short-run relationships were identified between empowerment of society, measured as the number of mobile cellular subscriptions, and productivity.
Originality/value
The conclusions support the paradigm of diffusion of innovation theory, which aims to understand the use of modern technologies to obtain the maximum economic benefit, and show both the dark and bright sides of technology. Furthermore, the effect of the digitalisation economy paradigm on productivity should be determined by increasing logistical services. This will support the growth of foreign and domestic investments and promote cooperation between the public and private sectors, thereby achieving digitalisation in Oman and enabling reflection on the country’s monetary policy development and economic growth.
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Salvatore Capasso, Oreste Napolitano and Ana Laura Viveros Jiménez
The idea of this study is to provide a solid Financial Condition Index (FCI) that allows the monetary transmission policy to be monitored in a country which in recent decades has…
Abstract
Purpose
The idea of this study is to provide a solid Financial Condition Index (FCI) that allows the monetary transmission policy to be monitored in a country which in recent decades has suffered from major financial and monetary crises.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime. Using monthly data from 1995 to 2017, the authors estimate FCIs with two different methodologies and build the index by taking into account the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy and incorporating the most relevant financial variables.
Findings
This study’s results show that, likewise for developing countries as Mexico, an FCI could be a useful tool for managing monetary policy in reducing macroeconomic fluctuations.
Originality/value
Apart from building a predictor of possible financial stress, the authors construct an FCI for a central bank that pursues inflation targeting and to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy.
Highlights
We construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime.
The FCIs are based on (1) a vector autoregression model (VAR); (2) an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and (3) a factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR).
FCI could become a new target for monetary policy within a hybrid inflation-targeting framework.
FCI could be a good tool for managing monetary policy in developing countries with a low-inflation environment.
We construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime.
The FCIs are based on (1) a vector autoregression model (VAR); (2) an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and (3) a factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR).
FCI could become a new target for monetary policy within a hybrid inflation-targeting framework.
FCI could be a good tool for managing monetary policy in developing countries with a low-inflation environment.
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Shan Jiang, Duc Khuong Nguyen, Peng-Fei Dai and Qingxin Meng
In the hybrid knowledge-sharing platform where paid and nonpaid (“free”) knowledge activities coexist, users’ free knowledge contribution may be influenced by financial factors…
Abstract
Purpose
In the hybrid knowledge-sharing platform where paid and nonpaid (“free”) knowledge activities coexist, users’ free knowledge contribution may be influenced by financial factors. From the perspective of opportunity cost, this study investigates the direct effect of how the amount of monetary income from users’ contribution to paid knowledge activities influences their free knowledge contribution behavior in the future. Further, this study aims to verify the interaction effect of financial and nonfinancial factors (i.e. the experience of free knowledge contribution and social recognition) on free knowledge contribution.
Design/methodology/approach
Objective data was collected from a hybrid knowledge-sharing platform in China and then analyzed by using zero-inflated negative binomial regression model.
Findings
Results show that the amount of monetary income that knowledge suppliers gain from paid knowledge contribution negatively influences their free knowledge contribution. Experience of free knowledge contribution strengthens the negatively main effect, while social recognition has the weakening moderating role.
Originality/value
Although some studies have explored and verified the positive spillover effect of financial incentives on free knowledge contribution, the quantity dimension is ignored. This study examines the hindering influence of the quantity of monetary income from the perspective of opportunity cost. By taking the characteristic of knowledge suppliers and platforms as moderators, this study deepens the understanding of the influence of monetary income on free knowledge contribution in the hybrid knowledge-sharing platform.
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Mariusz Kicia and Dominika Kordela
Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted…
Abstract
Research Background
Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted to economic challenges in 1998–2022. It is worth noticing that the Polish economy and financial market have been built from scratch after 45 years of socialism. Hence, it is scientifically interesting to study the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, and capital market in a developing country, and in a relatively young economy.
Purpose of the Chapter
Both – the macroeconomic policy mix and development of the capital market – are the subject of analysis how fiscal and monetary policy impacted the capital market. As so the main aim of the chapter is the assessment of the nexus and dependencies between fiscal and monetary policy and the capital market.
Methodology
In the chapter, multiple linear regression was used for each dependent variable to discover which monetary and fiscal policy parameters significantly predicted selected variables describing the development of the capital market in Poland. Fiscal and monetary policy variables served as descriptors explaining capital market parameters in seven separate models.
Findings
Multiple regression models explain 77.3%–95.4% of the volatility of the capital market characteristics. The level of the central bank's reference rate is a variable that influences the capital market the most. In six out of seven models, the interest rate was a significant parameter. The development of the capital market was accompanied by a higher tax-to-GDP ratio. At the same time, a strong negative impact of the tax-to-GDP increase was noticed in domestic institutional investors' stock trading.
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This article analyzes the impact of monetary policy on income inequality across 16 advanced economies. The author investigates three key points: (1) the relationship between…
Abstract
Purpose
This article analyzes the impact of monetary policy on income inequality across 16 advanced economies. The author investigates three key points: (1) the relationship between domestic monetary policy and domestic income inequality, (2) the spillover effect of USA monetary policy (including quantitative easing) on international inequality and (3) the quantitative influence of the monetary policies of both the USA and the Eurozone on the formation of domestic income inequalities.
Design/methodology/approach
The author employed the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, which uses Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (VARXs) models of each economy to build an integrated system that enables us to evaluate individual responses to global shocks.
Findings
The author's analysis reveals that (1) contractionary monetary policy exacerbates domestic inequality and (2) USA monetary policy, including quantitative easing, affects international inequality. Furthermore, the author's variance decomposition analysis highlights that USA monetary policy is especially influential on income inequality in Norway and Sweden. Additionally, the cointegrating analysis confirms that monetary policy's impact on inequality persists in the long term.
Originality/value
Most of the studies focused on investigating domestic economies as closed economies. However, the author's approach differs in that the author uses the GVAR, which treats all economies as open. This allows us to incorporate the world economy into the domestic dynamics and connect the economies using bilateral trade. Another advantage of the GVAR is that it captures spillover effects by modeling each economy and constructing the international economy.
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