Effects of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy on the Capital Market in Poland

Abstract

Research Background

Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted to economic challenges in 1998–2022. It is worth noticing that the Polish economy and financial market have been built from scratch after 45 years of socialism. Hence, it is scientifically interesting to study the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, and capital market in a developing country, and in a relatively young economy.

Purpose of the Chapter

Both – the macroeconomic policy mix and development of the capital market – are the subject of analysis how fiscal and monetary policy impacted the capital market. As so the main aim of the chapter is the assessment of the nexus and dependencies between fiscal and monetary policy and the capital market.

Methodology

In the chapter, multiple linear regression was used for each dependent variable to discover which monetary and fiscal policy parameters significantly predicted selected variables describing the development of the capital market in Poland. Fiscal and monetary policy variables served as descriptors explaining capital market parameters in seven separate models.

Findings

Multiple regression models explain 77.3%–95.4% of the volatility of the capital market characteristics. The level of the central bank's reference rate is a variable that influences the capital market the most. In six out of seven models, the interest rate was a significant parameter. The development of the capital market was accompanied by a higher tax-to-GDP ratio. At the same time, a strong negative impact of the tax-to-GDP increase was noticed in domestic institutional investors' stock trading.

Citation

Kicia, M. and Kordela, D. (2023), "Effects of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy on the Capital Market in Poland", Bukalska, E., Kijek, T. and Sergi, B.S. (Ed.) Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Poland (Entrepreneurship and Global Economic Growth), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 131-144. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-654-220231008