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Article
Publication date: 19 October 2023

Haytem Troug and Ernil Sabaj

Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy until the post-financial crisis, leaving a gap in the analysis of how government consumption affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This motivates this paper to analyse how government consumption affects the dynamics of a small open economy, once the former is included in a non-separable form to the utility function. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this issue has not been addressed by the literature, and the authors aim to do so in this paper.

Design/methodology/approach

A standard New Keynesian model for a small open economy is used to allow for the presence of non-separable government consumption in the utility function. The model is supported by panel regressions.

Findings

The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The degree of openness dampens the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it. Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

Originality/value

The effect of government consumption on the transmission mechanism of MP has not been addressed in the literature. This paper contributes to the literature by addressing this issue.

Highlights:

  • • The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

  • • The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.

  • • Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

• The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

• The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.

• Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 September 2023

Cleyton Farias and Marcelo Silva

The authors explore the hypothesis that some movements in commodity prices are anticipated (news shocks) and can trigger aggregate fluctuations in small open emerging economies

Abstract

Purpose

The authors explore the hypothesis that some movements in commodity prices are anticipated (news shocks) and can trigger aggregate fluctuations in small open emerging economies. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors build a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous commodity production. There are five exogenous processes: a country-specific interest rate shock that responds to commodity price fluctuations, a productivity (TFP) shock for each sector and a commodity price shock. Both TFP and commodity price shocks are composed of unanticipated and anticipated components.

Findings

The authors show that news shocks to commodity prices lead to higher output, investment and consumption, and a countercyclical movement in the trade-balance-to-output ratio. The authors also show that commodity price news shocks explain about 24% of output aggregate fluctuations in the small open economy.

Practical implications

Given the importance of both anticipated and unanticipated commodity price shocks, policymakers should pay attention to developments in commodity markets when designing policies to attenuate the business cycles. Future research should investigate the design of optimal fiscal and monetary policies in SOE subject to news shocks in commodity prices.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the knowledge of the sources of fluctuations in emerging economies highlighting the importance of a new source: news shocks in commodity prices.

Details

EconomiA, vol. 24 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1517-7580

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2020

Phuong V. Nguyen

The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

A SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation.

Findings

This paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam.

Originality/value

This research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.

Article
Publication date: 26 December 2023

Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

Findings

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Chikafumi Nakamura

This study aims to analyze exchange rate risks and the choice of exchange rate policies in a small open economy indebted in foreign currency, incorporating the financial…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze exchange rate risks and the choice of exchange rate policies in a small open economy indebted in foreign currency, incorporating the financial accelerator mechanism.

Design/methodology/approach

To examine discussions on the fear of floating, this study develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which a small open economy model has an open economy financial accelerator mechanism as the external borrowing restriction. The author then compares and analyzes the macroeconomic dynamics in response to an exchange rate shock under different exchange rate systems.

Findings

The most interesting finding is that the currency peg for a foreign currency used in borrowing is more efficient than the trade-weighted currency basket policy, regardless of trade openness or trade share.

Practical implications

The result implies that in discussions on the fear of floating, more attention needs to be paid to exchange rate risks in finance. It also suggests that exchange rate policy used to mitigate exchange rate risks in finance stabilizes macroeconomic volatility more efficiently.

Originality/value

The paper provides an answer to the question: which is the more serious problem in the fear of floating and to what would the regime be anchored.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 May 2020

Muhammad Rehman, Sajawal Khan, Zafar Hayat and Faruk Balli

In this paper, the authors develop and estimate a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an enriched micro-founded specification to account…

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, the authors develop and estimate a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an enriched micro-founded specification to account for foreign remittances, an important source that helps bridge the trade gap in many developing and emerging market economies.

Design/methodology/approach

Although the authors’ specification provides a general frame for the analysis of the role of workers' remittances, they motivate and calibrate the model with specific focus on Pakistan, where most of the trade deficit is met through the remittance channel.

Findings

The results indicate that a negative shock to workers' remittances hampers real growth via decreased consumption and imported investment goods, while it builds pressure on exchange rate and hence worsens current account balance. These results indicate that too much dependence on workers' remittances to help meet foreign exchange deficits may potentially leave the economy in doldrums in case sizable negative shocks occur to the flow of foreign remittances.

Originality/value

The authors develop and estimate a small open economy DSGE model with an enriched micro-founded specification to account for foreign remittances, an important source that helps bridge the trade gap in many developing and emerging market economies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 21 September 2022

Michael Chin, Ferre De Graeve, Thomai Filippeli and Konstantinos Theodoridis

Long-term interest rates of small open economies (SOE) correlate strongly with the USA long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the United States? An

Abstract

Long-term interest rates of small open economies (SOE) correlate strongly with the USA long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the United States? An estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the UK (vis-á-vis the USA) establishes three structural empirical results: (1) Comovement arises due to nominal fluctuations, not through real rates or term premia; (2) the cause of comovement is the central bank of the SOE accommodating foreign inflation trends, rather than systematically curbing them; and (3) SOE may find themselves much more affected by changes in USA inflation trends than the United States itself. All three results are shown to be intuitive and backed by off-model evidence.

Details

Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-832-9

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Enrique Martínez-García

The global slack hypothesis is central to the discussion of the trade-offs that monetary policy faces in an increasingly more integrated world. The workhorse New Open Economy

Abstract

The global slack hypothesis is central to the discussion of the trade-offs that monetary policy faces in an increasingly more integrated world. The workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010), which fleshes out this hypothesis, shows how expected future local inflation and global slack affect current local inflation. In this chapter, I propose the use of the orthogonalization method of Aoki (1981) and Fukuda (1993) on the workhorse NOEM model to further decompose local inflation into a global component and an inflation differential component. I find that the log-linearized rational expectations model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010) can be solved with two separate subsystems to describe each of these two components of inflation.

I estimate the full NOEM model with Bayesian techniques using data for the United States and an aggregate of its 38 largest trading partners from 1980Q1 until 2011Q4. The Bayesian estimation recognizes the parameter uncertainty surrounding the model and calls on the data (inflation and output) to discipline the parameterization. My findings show that the strength of the international spillovers through trade – even in the absence of common shocks – is reflected in the response of global inflation and is incorporated into local inflation dynamics. Furthermore, I find that key features of the economy can have different impacts on global and local inflation – in particular, I show that the parameters that determine the import share and the price-elasticity of trade matter in explaining the inflation differential component but not the global component of inflation.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 September 2008

Michael F. Williams

This paper's purpose is to investigate the claim that capital taxes imposed by a subnational government reduce the economic competitiveness of the geographic area in which these…

281

Abstract

Purpose

This paper's purpose is to investigate the claim that capital taxes imposed by a subnational government reduce the economic competitiveness of the geographic area in which these taxes are imposed.

Design/methodology/approach

A two‐region, four‐good, three‐factor computational general equilibrium model of the USA is constructed. Simulations are performed to represent US state governments replacing wage taxes with capital taxes.

Findings

Household utilities rose when wage taxes were replaced by capital taxes, contradicting the conventional wisdom that capital taxes are harmful to a region's residents.

Research limitations/implications

As with all computational economic models, there are simplifications in this paper's model that abstract from reality and may limit the applicability of model results to the real world.

Practical implications

Subnational governments need not shy away from capital taxes when funding government programs.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the investigation of subnational tax incidence.

Details

Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1059-5422

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 17 May 2024

Rudrarup Mukherjee

In this chapter, the author considers a three-sector general equilibrium model in the context of a developing nation to find out the impact of an increase in foreign capital…

Abstract

In this chapter, the author considers a three-sector general equilibrium model in the context of a developing nation to find out the impact of an increase in foreign capital inflow on the welfare level of the nation. Comparative static analysis reveals that an increase in the inflow of foreign capital causes redistribution across the factors of production and a reallocation of resources, reflected through the change in output. Moreover, the author considers the case of technology transfer and proves that an increase in foreign capital inflow makes the country better off in terms of social welfare even if the foreign capital is fully repatriated. Hence, this work shows that in the absence of any trade distortion, a partial investment liberalisation causes a welfare gain for a small open economy.

Details

International Trade, Economic Crisis and the Sustainable Development Goals
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-587-3

Keywords

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