Search results

This study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets’ tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Türkiye.

Tourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Türkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda–Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate–tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.

The results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.

The Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Türkiye.

This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability by estimating both the short- and long-run relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability for 18 OECD countries from 1975Q1 to 2022Q4. After that, this study demonstrates how this nexus behaves during high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.

This study uses the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing affordability to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries and estimate various short- and long-run dynamics in the relationship between housing affordability and exchange rate.

Exchange rate appreciation improves housing affordability in the short run, whereas this connection tends to dissipate in the long run. Moreover, inflation can worsen housing affordability during turbulent times, such as the global financial crisis, in both the short and long run. Ignoring these changes in the relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability during turbulent times can lead to incorrect conclusions.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the association between exchange rates and housing affordability by demonstrating how these variables behave in high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.

Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently.

The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020.

The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility.

This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets.

This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.

The exchange rate is an important driver of a country’s economic growth, influencing trade, investment, inflation, and employment. This study’s main objective was to investigate the threshold effects of exchange rates on economic growth.

In this research, innovative endogenous threshold autoregressive (TAR) models introduced by Hansen (2000) are employed for estimation and inference. The dataset comprises secondary annual time series data from Ghana, covering thirty-one years from 1990 to 2021. Economic growth is represented by GDPPC, with the growth exchange rate serving as the crucial threshold variable.

The finding suggests a single exchange rate threshold for Ghana, indicating a nonlinear relationship with economic growth. However, above 8.97%, the exchange rate considerably slows growth, harming the economy. The exchange rate negatively influences growth in both low and high-exchange-rate regimes, but it is insignificant in the high regime. In addition, inflation has a significant negative influence on growth in the low regime but a positive impact on the high regime. In contrast, interest rates positively impact growth in both regimes, though not as significantly in the high regime.

The findings from this study offer valuable insights to the Ghanaian government and policymakers as they consider choosing an exchange rate target that helps minimise the negative impact of a high exchange rate to promote economic growth.

This paper is remarkable for being one of the few studies that have explored the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth, exploring the threshold effect.

In this study, it is analyzed the validity of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) effect and the effect of interest rate and output level on the inflation rate (IR) in Brazil, Russia, India, China and Turkey (BRIC-T) between the years 1995Q1 and 2022Q4.

The methods such as the panel unit root test developed by Westerlund (2012), the LM bootstrap panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator developed by Pesaran (2006) and the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator developed by Eberhardt and Bond (2009) that take into account the cross-section dependency are applied for analysis.

As a result of the findings, it is determined that the ERPT effect is valid in Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India and China and the cost channel is valid only in China. Finally, it is found out that output level positively affects inflation in Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India and China.

All these results indicate that the economies of Turkey, Russia, Brazil and India have a fragile structure, especially in terms of inflation. Therefore, the central bank of these countries should maintain exchange-rate stability to implement the inflation-targeting strategy successfully. In this context, central bank independence should be increased in these countries in achieving this objective. Also the results indicate that it is still early to consider whether BRIC-T countries and accordingly the Belt and Road Initiative will be an alternative against the domination of the USA and European Union (EU) on international trade system or it will substitute them.

In this study, it is tested that the impact of interest-rate (NIR), exchange-rate (FER) and output level (IPI) on general level of prices. Besides, it is analyzed that whether production level affects the IR. Also, the study investigates the economic issues such as ERPT effect and cost channel. The study analyzes whether China's Belt and Road Initiative is successful or not. In this study, we used the panel data methods that allow for structural breaks and cross-section dependency. For these reasons, this study differs from other studies in the literature both in terms of scope and methods used.

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the long-run and short-run drivers of real house prices in Nigeria from 1991Q1 to 2020Q4.

Vector autoregression and cointegration tests were used to assess the key drivers of Nigeria’s real house prices in the long run and short run.

The empirical findings revealed that household disposable income is the most important determinant of house prices in Nigeria. House prices increased by 1.6% and 60.8% in response to a 1% increase in disposable income in the long run and short run, respectively, while real mortgage credits pushed up house prices by 5% and have no long-run effects, suggesting that most Nigerians depend on their money income rather than credits in securing a home. In addition, prices of oil sector products and real interest rates had negative and significant relationship with house prices, while positive correlations were found for real effective exchange rate and real housing investments regardless of the time horizon. The impact of construction costs and cement prices was also documented.

This is likely a pioneering study of its kind to focus on the determinants of real house prices in Nigeria. It is probably the first study, the best of the author’s knowledge, to empirically examine the impact of the oil sector on house prices in the country.

This study aims to examine the asymmetric S-curve between the trade balances of Pakistan and China at the commodity level using disaggregated data.

This study focuses on Pakistan and China bilateral trade based on commodity-level data. This study delves into the S-curve phenomena by examining time series data from 1980 to 2023 across 32 three-digit industries/commodities.

The findings show significant evidence in favor of the “asymmetric S-curve” in 27 out of the 32 industries studied. This study confirms that the devaluation of home currency is not a viable solution always to improve trade balance.

This study considers 32 three-digit industries limiting the generalizability of findings. Due to data unavailability, the authors fail to consider other industries. In the absence of quarterly data on industry-level trade between Pakistan and China, annual data from 1980 to 2023 were used in generating the cross-correlation functions. Previous literature frequently resorted to the general consumer price index with its inherent aggregation issues, whereas this study has opted for commodity price indices to overcome the shortcomings in the estimation of S-curves at the commodity level.

The findings have practical relevance in guiding policy decisions regarding commodity trade, whereas the industry-wise analysis enriches the understanding of the short-term effects of currency depreciation on trade balance dynamics.

The S-curve hypothesis predicts a negative cross-correlation between a country's current exchange rate and its past trade balance and a positive cross-correlation between the current exchange rate and its future trade balance. Previous empirical S-curve studies had the limitation of assuming symmetry in cross-correlation with both current and future trade balance values.

This paper aims to focus on exploring and understanding the practice of analyzing the determinants of the Moroccan Dirham by foreign exchange professionals in trading rooms in the context of transitioning to a more flexible regime initiated by Moroccan authorities. The objective of this study is to highlight how foreign exchange operators analyze the determinants of the Moroccan Dirham in the context of exchange rate liberalization, focusing primarily on qualitative data rather than quantitative data.

Therefore, this paper opted for a methodological approach using interview surveys to understand the underlying behavior of Moroccan foreign exchange operators, conducting a content analysis. This paper targeted six foreign exchange operators from nine Moroccan banks authorized as market makers by Bank Al-Maghrib.

The results indicate that the fluctuations of the Moroccan Dirham are closely linked to two main factors: the analysis of the EUR/USD exchange rate and market liquidity analysis. Furthermore, content analysis revealed five essential aspects regarding the practice of analyzing the determinants of the Dirham: “Dirham determinants,” “complementarity between technical analysis and fundamental analysis,” “trends and reversals,” “utility of macroeconomic models” and “psychological factors.”

Certainly, this methodology allows for exploring and understanding the underlying behavior of currency operators but inherently generates a certain degree of subjectivity that can affect the research validity. Indeed, the subjectivity can arise from the responses of the currency operators themselves. They may present the phenomenon coherently or selectively choose the elements they remember to respond to. On the other hand, the validity of this type of research relies on the researcher's ability to cultivate empathy throughout the knowledge creation process. The empathetic stance adopted in this study proved to be complex due to the uniqueness of operators and interaction, sometimes making it challenging to combine empathy, respect and critical thinking (Olivier De Sardan, 2004). Furthermore, the researcher is often faced with an interpretation bias, which can manifest not only during the coding of collected data but also during the analysis of the constructed content. To mitigate this interpretation bias, this paper subjected the collected data to a double coding procedure.

This study aims to narrow the gap in opinions between academics and practitioners by providing a practical overview for change novices.

This study is the pioneering inquiry exploring the process of determining the Moroccan dirham within the transition to a flexible exchange rate regime, using an exploratory methodological approach.

This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility and the risk of expropriation on the decision to repatriate foreign earnings.

The current study uses secondary data for foreign subsidiaries of US multinational corporations (MNCs) in 40 countries from 2004 to 2016. We use the dynamic panel difference generalised method of moments (GMM) to estimate the dynamic earnings repatriation model.

The findings show that foreign subsidiaries of US MNCs in countries with volatile exchange rates tend to repatriate more earnings to the parent company. The findings also reveal that a greater risk of expropriation in the host country leads to the higher repatriation of foreign earnings to the parent company. The findings support the notion that MNCs use the earnings repatriation policy as a means of mitigating risks arising in the host country.

Practical implications for modern managers include shedding light on how financial managers can use earnings repatriation policy to mitigate exchange rate risk and the risk of expropriation in the host country. The findings also contain policy implications at the host country level that how exchange rate volatility and risk of expropriation can reduce foreign investment in the host country.

This study adds to the earnings repatriation literature by analysing the direct effect of exchange rate volatility on earnings repatriation decisions, as opposed to the impact of the exchange rate itself, as suggested by previous research. Hence, the findings broaden our understanding of the direct influence of exchange rate volatility on the decision to repatriate foreign earnings. The present study also examines the role of the risk of expropriation in determining earnings repatriation policy, which has received little attention in prior empirical studies.