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1 – 10 of over 132000Michael R. Melton, Xuan (Susan) Nguyen and Michael Simeone
The purpose of this paper is to introduce instruction of technical analysis on the undergraduate level that can coincide with traditional teachings of fundamental analysis.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to introduce instruction of technical analysis on the undergraduate level that can coincide with traditional teachings of fundamental analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
Through examples using the latest in security analysis technology, this paper illustrates the importance of technical security analysis.
Findings
This research illustrates how technical analysis techniques may be used to make more significant investment decisions.
Originality value
Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist define technical analysis as a security analysis discipline for forecasting future direction of prices through the study of past market data primarily price and volume This form of analysis has stood in direct contrast to the fundamental analysis approach whereby actual facts of the company its industry and sector may be ignored. Understanding this contrast, much of academia has chosen to continue to focus its finance curricula on fundamental analysis techniques. As more universities implement trading rooms to reflect that of industry, they must recognize that any large brokerage trading group or financial institution will typically have both a technical analysis and fundamental analysis team. Thus, the need to incorporate technical analysis into undergraduate finance curricula.
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David M. Smith, Christophe Faugère and Ying Wang
This study takes a novel approach to testing the efficacy of technical analysis. Rather than testing specific trading rules as is typically done in the literature, we rely on…
Abstract
This study takes a novel approach to testing the efficacy of technical analysis. Rather than testing specific trading rules as is typically done in the literature, we rely on institutional portfolio managers’ statements about whether and how intensely they use technical analysis, irrespective of the form in which they implement it. In our sample of more than 10,000 portfolios, about one-third of actively managed equity and balanced funds use technical analysis. We compare the investment performance of funds that use technical analysis versus those that do not, using five metrics. Mean and median (3 and 4-factor) alpha values are generally slightly higher for a cross section of funds using technical analysis, but performance volatility is also higher. Benchmark-adjusted returns are also higher, particularly when market prices are declining. The most remarkable finding is that portfolios with greater reliance on technical analysis have elevated skewness and kurtosis levels relative to portfolios that do not use technical analysis. Funds using technical analysis appear to have provided a meaningful advantage to their investors, albeit in an unexpected way.
This paper outlines the present state of technical analysis and describes the various mechanisms associated with current practices. In particular, the relative strength analysis…
Abstract
This paper outlines the present state of technical analysis and describes the various mechanisms associated with current practices. In particular, the relative strength analysis approach is identified as a useful tool for investment appraisal. Empirical research on specific technical theories is called for, especially into the relative price behaviour patterns of industrial stocks. Overall, there is seen to be some merit in a proper application of technical theories allied to accurate forecasting of company earnings and dividends.
Hesham I. Almujamed, Suzanne Fifield and David Power
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the technical methods that investors in the Kuwait Stock Exchange use to evaluate ordinary shares. The research examines the extent of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the technical methods that investors in the Kuwait Stock Exchange use to evaluate ordinary shares. The research examines the extent of investors' use of technical analysis, and the technical indicators and the sources of technical information employed by investors. Further, it compares the valuation methods and the sources of information employed by Kuwaiti investors with those used by investors in other developed and emerging stock markets.
Design/methodology/approach
A semi‐structured questionnaire guided the interviews with institutional investors, technical analysts and investment analysts in Kuwait.
Findings
Technical analysis is commonly used among research participants, particularly when timing their entry and exit points. The participants use a mixture of trend and pattern seeking; the Moving Average Rule was heavily used in the market but the Filter Rule Approach was not. Interviewees believed that investors did not have complete information about Kuwaiti quoted companies. Investors in Kuwait behave like their counterparts in other developed and emerging stock markets; fundamental analysis is considered the main valuation method among research participants, while technical and risk analyses were ranked second and third, respectively.
Practical implications
Interviewees in Kuwait paid more attention to technical analysis than did investors in developed countries; technical analysts looked at a company's fundamentals before they consulted graphs when deciding to purchase ordinary shares. Further, chartists followed trades of large investors to make profits. This topic needs to be investigated in emerging markets because these markets may be inefficient; trends and patterns may characterise the data from these markets and practitioners may use these techniques to exploit such patterns in returns. Further, the findings in this study may aid the regulators of these markets in their development of a framework that could improve efficiency by increasing the level of disclosure and transparency among listed firms.
Originality/value
This is one of the first studies in Kuwait to report the views of technical analysts and institutional investors about technical approaches to equity investment that are used in the market. Most studies on this topic have been conducted in developed stock markets. The current study considers the case for an emerging stock market, which is important in the Gulf and Middle East region. Further, access to technical analysts has been limited in prior research but this was not an issue in the current investigation.
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Charles B. Keating, Abel A. Fernandez, Derya A. Jacobs and Paul Kauffmann
This article presents the design and application of a Modified Sociotechnical Systems (MoSTS) methodology for holistic analysis of complex technical processes. Successes and…
Abstract
This article presents the design and application of a Modified Sociotechnical Systems (MoSTS) methodology for holistic analysis of complex technical processes. Successes and failures of process redesign initiatives have demonstrated the strong influence of human elements on outcomes. (Sociotechnical Systems) STS provides a foundation for structured analysis and redesign of complex processes which emphasizes human aspects in process redesign. The MoSTS methodology is developed from STS research and practice and applied to analyze a complex technical process in the research and development sector. MoSTS is shown to be an effective methodology to facilitate analysis for process redesign, particularly where human influences may have a significant impact on success. The article concludes with limitations and implications for process analysis based on the MoSTS methodology application.
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Stephanos Papadamou and Stavros Tsopoglou
Reviews previous research on exchange rate forecasting, identifies some problems in building a predictive model and examines the profitability of using various technical rules (as…
Abstract
Reviews previous research on exchange rate forecasting, identifies some problems in building a predictive model and examines the profitability of using various technical rules (as used by traders) in the USD/DM and USD/BP foreign exchange markets. Takes 1989‐1996 data, divided into two sub‐periods with different macroeconomic features; and compares the results from the technical rules in detail and with a buy and hold strategy. Finds that no rules produced statistically significant profits for the whole period (although they did for the first sub‐period) and some evidence that buy and hold is superior, especially if risk is taken into account. Considers the implications of the findings and the underlying reasons for them.
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Jasleen Kaur and Khushdeep Dharni
The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors…
Abstract
Purpose
The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors frequently use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Data mining techniques coupled with fundamental and technical analysis types have the potential to give satisfactory results for stock market prediction. In the current paper, an effort is made to investigate the accuracy of stock market predictions by using the combined approach of variables from technical and fundamental analysis for the creation of a data mining predictive model.
Design/methodology/approach
We chose 381 companies from the National Stock Exchange of India's CNX 500 index and conducted a two-stage data analysis. The first stage is identifying key fundamental variables and constructing a portfolio based on that study. Artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and decision tree J48 were used to build the models. The second stage entails applying technical analysis to forecast price movements in the companies included in the portfolios. ANN and SVM techniques were used to create predictive models for all companies in the portfolios. We also estimated returns using trading decisions based on the model's output and then compared them to buy-and-hold returns and the return of the NIFTY 50 index, which served as a benchmark.
Findings
The results show that the returns of both the portfolios are higher than the benchmark buy-and-hold strategy return. It can be concluded that data mining techniques give better results, irrespective of the type of stock, and have the ability to make up for poor stocks. The comparison of returns of portfolios with the return of NIFTY as a benchmark also indicates that both the portfolios are generating higher returns as compared to the return generated by NIFTY.
Originality/value
As stock prices are influenced by both technical and fundamental indicators, the current paper explored the combined effect of technical analysis and fundamental analysis variables for Indian stock market prediction. Further, the results obtained by individual analysis have also been compared. The proposed method under study can also be utilized to determine whether to hold stocks for the long or short term using trend-based research.
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Stan Aungst, Russell R. Barton and David T. Wilson
Quality Function Deployment (QFD) proposes to take into account the “voice of the customer,” through a list of customer needs, which are (qualitatively) mapped to technical…
Abstract
Quality Function Deployment (QFD) proposes to take into account the “voice of the customer,” through a list of customer needs, which are (qualitatively) mapped to technical requirements in House One. But customers do not perceive products in this space, nor do they not make purchase decisions in this space. Marketing specialists use statistical models to map between a simpler space of customer perceptions and the long and detailed list of needs. For automobiles, for example, the main axes in perceptual space might be categories such as luxury, performance, sport, and utility. A product’s position on these few axes determines the detailed customer requirements consistent with the automobiles’ position such as interior volume, gauges and accessories, seating type, fuel economy, door height, horsepower, interior noise level, seating capacity, paint colors, trim, and so forth. Statistical models such as factor analysis and principal components analysis are used to describe the mapping between these spaces, which we call House Zero.
This paper focus on House One. Two important steps of the product development process using House One are: (1) setting technical targets; (2) identifying the inherent tradeoffs in a design including a position of merit. Utility functions are used to determine feature preferences for a product. Conjoint analysis is used to capture the product preference and potential market share. Linear interpolation and the slope point formula are used to determine other points of customer needs. This research draws from the formal mapping concepts developed by Nam Suh and the qualitative maps of quality function deployment, to present unified information and mapping paradigm for concurrent product/process design. This approach is the virtual integrated design method that is tested upon data from a business design problem.
Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and window analysis are used to follow the changes in Australian trading banks' pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency, and the nature of…
Abstract
Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and window analysis are used to follow the changes in Australian trading banks' pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency, and the nature of returns to scale. The main findings indicate declining average efficiency scores until 1991, followed by a steady rise thereafter. Pure technical inefficiency emerges as a greater source of inefficiency than scale inefficiency. Overall, regional banks exhibit increasing returns to scale and major trading banks exhibit decreasing returns to scale. Also worthy of note is the mixed size of banks operating at optimal returns to scale.