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Corporations need a structure for thinking through the development of a new energy/environment strategy and the business implications of different strategy alternatives. This paper aims to investigate how to develop a customized corporate energy strategy.

This four‐step process focuses on the major energy/environment issues requiring corporate decisions; it generates two alternate scenarios of the future that span the possibilities and identifies basic policy choices for corporations and also the tradeoffs to be made.

The paper finds that this process to develop a new energy strategy addresses the prospects that the way an organization manages its energy and environmental threats and opportunities over the next 15 years could invigorate or cripple it. The four major drivers of uncertainty for the future: the dynamics of energy supply and demand, global warming effects, society's environmental‐mitigation and remediation priorities, and world economic development outcomes.

Bill Ralston is the co‐author of the best‐practice guide The Scenario Planning Handbook (with Ian Wilson).

The four‐step process outlined here provides corporate executives the practical means to interpret the global forces buffeting them, to identify new pathways for creating value in the future and to get started.

This process to develop a new energy strategy evaluates the prospects that the way an organization manages its energy and environmental threats and opportunities over the next 15 years could invigorate or cripple it.

Energy systems are quickly in transition and their complexity has been dramatically increased. Although there are numerous studies and researches about future of energy in terms of technology or fuels, few studies have been done based on comprehensive socio-technical dimensions of energy systems’ futures. One key question to fill this gap is that how can we consider electricity as a sustainable common good/resource, beyond some conventional considerations related to public or private sector orientation? The purpose of this study is to find an acceptable answer for this question..

To achieve the purpose of this study, after reviewing some relevant studies, key effective factors on the future of energy have been recognized in an expert panel and structurally analyzed by Micmac software based on cross-impact analyze method. Thereafter, four scenarios for transforming the electricity distribution from a monopoly good to a common resource have been developed and described based on scenario workshops method..

Four scenarios for transforming the electricity distribution from a monopoly good to a common resource have been developed and described. These scenarios include “spider grid,” “local grid,” “intermediate grid” and “off-grid.” Furthermore, different dimensions of electricity as a common good/resource have been investigated. As a result, the authors find out that common resource is a creatable concept that can be referred to some goods depending on certain conditions.

Electricity, like any other resource with common characteristics, can be considered and treated as a common resource, depending on the way we generate, share and distribute it, ownership and property rights, management and decision-making mechanisms, social participation processes and governance criteria.

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and identify underlying steps needed toward a vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes.

Two scenario processes were conducted for the study. A heuristic, semi‐structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes.

The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, the potential of technological development in solving the global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for the global issues, and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces.

Further research is needed involving analysis of the probabilities of the technological and commercial elements in each scenario. It is also important to conceptualise the scale and directions of biomass trade streams and determine the influences of the scenarios from the viewpoints of different actors.

The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial aspects of the scenarios and foreseeing the scales and directions of biomass streams.

In this study, scenario processes supplemented by a GSS are applied for investigating the future development of the biomass market.

Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy mix to support the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. In this regard, this paper aims to present renewable energy (RE) development scenarios in Iran in the horizon of 2030.

Following the intuitive logic school and the Global Business Network model, the authors identified seven driving forces, according to the expert’s judgment, by brainstorming techniques which influence REs development in the horizon of 2030. By prioritizing driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty, “sustainable and green economy” and “emerging technology development” are the most instrumental uncertainties and the authors formed a two-axis scenario matrix with each representing an axis.

The results suggest four main scenarios of “Transition to Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Productivity with Black Gold” and “Desperation with Black Gold.” They include a wide range of possible situations of energy basket in the future ranging from dominance of fossil fuels to dominance of REs. The “Productivity with Black Gold” and the “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold” are the most probable scenarios of RE development by 2030 in Iran.

This paper indicates that the dominance of oil and gas resources would impede or at least slow down the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. Although the economic and environmental potentials and the inevitability of REs are well-understood, path dependence created by fossil fuels in Iran’s energy regime, either partially or fully, hinders the widespread development of REs which is the case in other resource-based countries as well.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate for symmetries – in sign and size – between spot and futures prices in the markets of energy commodities.

The aforementioned objective is pursued using daily observations of spot and futures prices for the commodities of crude oil, Brent, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas, along with local nonlinear regression.

Symmetry in sign and size cannot be rejected. This means that, shocks of the same absolute magnitude, but of different sign, are transmitted from futures prices to spot prices with the same intensity. In addition, larger absolute value price shocks in the futures are transmitted to the spot markets with the same intensity compared with smaller ones. The findings of symmetry in the comovements among prices reveal a lack of those commodities on diversifying the investors’ investment risk.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to use local nonlinear regression to test for sign and size symmetry between futures and spot prices in the energy commodities markets.

In the case of Iran, about 19 years have passed since the announcement of general energy policies. Policies adopted in the past included too many approaches and goals for the energy sector that some of them are in conflict with each other and their simultaneous implementation was impossible. Therefore, many of the expected goals of these policies have not been achieved. It is very important to adopt an appropriate approach that is compatible with the country’s characteristics and can steer energy policies. Therefore, this study aims to adopt an appropriate approach for the country’s energy sector according to the conditions and needs of the country.

A participatory scenario technique is designed and used to develop plausible projections in the case of Iran’s energy futures. Based on the proposed methodology, the research process starts with data gathering through interviews and national plans analysis. Then, findings were used as inputs to a simulation-based scenario development process. Scenarios are developed based on Monte Carlo simulation via cross-impact analysis technique purified based on expert judgments.

In this paper, to recognize Iran’s general approach to energy in the next 20 years, driving forces of change were introduced and used as input for the scenario development phase. Results showed sanctions play a significant role in Iran’s energy future and determine the directions of other driving forces. For renewable energy, it was proposed to increase the renewable share in Iran’s electricity generation mix to 5% of the total installed capacity. In the case of fossil fuel extraction, the maximum efficient rate was proposed for both oil and natural gas national production strategy.

This research is novel both in terms of application and theory. A new participatory scenario development method is used using simulations that are equipped based on experts’ judgments. Also from the practical perspective, this research targeted a future-oriented challenging problem to initialize national policy in a resource-rich developing economy (i.e. Iran).

The Middle Eastern terrain is expected to encounter unprecedented climatic conditions before the turn of the next century (circa. 80 years), emanating from extreme heat waves that exceed the critical threshold of habitable conditions. This threatens to cause a significant challenge that is exacerbated by a gap between the supply and demand of affordable energy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the potential of utilising nearly zero-energy buildings (nZEB) to improve the performance of residential buildings in Iraq and the Middle East.

This study uses Iraq as a case-study because of the breadth of climatic conditions experienced across its wide-reaching territory and also because of the recent critical infrastructural challenges following the geo-political crisis. Three virtual buildings were simulated for Baghdad, Mosul and Basra cities to narrow the confines of the region to achieve nZEB under current and future climatic weather scenarios.

The findings showed that in all three cases studies, the buildings located within the three climatic regions in Iraq could achieve both significant annual energy reductions as well as nZEB standards which could range from 41 per cent to 87 per cent for current climatic conditions and 40 per cent to 84 per cent by 2080. An analysis has also been carried out for the three case-study cities which revealed significant operational-cost savings achievable through nZEB buildings.

There are currently limited studies that investigate such positive potential for nZEB strategies under the current and predicted future climatic scenarios in the Middle East.

The paper attempts to highlight and discuss the limitations of the current discourse around the role of hydrogen‐based energy in a more sustainable future.

The paper draws upon preliminary findings from qualitative fieldwork in three case studies. Focus groups were conducted with members of the public in three different areas of the UK where hydrogen projects are being planned and/or developed. Findings are connected to evidence gathered in other similar studies addressing the relationship between publics and new technologies.

In the case of hydrogen energy and its role in a future economy, questions about safety were present but did not dominate the debate. Participants in our focus groups were not only concerned about the technical and economic aspects of hydrogen technologies, but they also wanted to understand what hydrogen as an energy carrier and fuel would mean for them and in their daily lives; whether it would deliver the promise of realising a better future, for the global environment and the people; and whether it would disrupt people's lifestyles and require a significant change in collective and individual behaviour. Moreover, a frequent issue raised by many people was their ambivalence about what, and whom, to trust in the provision of information about hydrogen.

This research on public attitudes to a future hydrogen economy provides empirical insights about the socio‐cultural contexts in which lay understandings of new, unfamiliar technologies and technological systems are developed, and what issues are raised by members of the general public when an informed debate is encouraged. The research attempts to contribute to the wider debate about public engagement in technological change.

Analysis of relationship between energy and growth offers the sustainable energy pathway for a country’s sustainable economic development. This study aims to focus on the evaluation of the Pakistan’s energy system using long-run energy alternative planning (LEAP) modeling framework through different growth scenarios.

Principal component analysis has been adopted for indicators index formation. Study period of 1980 to 2030 is covered by forward and backward simulations in LEAP software.

The study reveals that current energy policy does not have the potential to lead the country toward a desired goal of economic sustainability.

In falling off scenario, negative growth rate (-5 per cent) assumption is also debatable; LEAP shows an error in the analysis and takes the last positive available value for any further analysis as a default. This case could have been simply omitted from results but for research contribution, the computations for this case are also reported.

Long-range energy alternative planning model has been applied to answer the corresponding question for simulation period of 1980 to 2030 to better compare the past trend and future expectations. Critical analysis of four selected scenarios (BAU, moderate, advanced and falling off) indicate that energy policy of Pakistan is poorly managed to maintain energy system’s effectiveness.

As far as statistical difference is concerned, early years have more fluctuation; however, from 2009, curve flattens for energy consumption and energy demand. The increasing demand of energy impacts the society and hence disturbs all sectors.

Policymakers have been so dragged off from the main route to sustainability, despite all odds there is a huge unexplored potential in the country for use to move in step with the world for a better tomorrow. The study educates the policymakers to comprehend the future energy scenarios and make rational decisions based on the study outcomes.