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Research focussed on the scenario method has increasingly criticized the widely used intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario development and introduced enhanced approaches, such as the backwards logic method (BLM) or the antifragile (AF) method, to overcome the restrictions associated with the IL approach. The BLM and the AF method have contributed to the further development of the scenario method by integrating backward reasoning and by increasing the method’s effectiveness for decision making. The purpose of this paper is to build on these ideas and introduce strategy scenarios as a further enhancement of the scenario method that directly applies the benefits of scenario-based planning to strategy development in corporations.

The authors argue that the existing methodologies do not fully integrate the benefits of scenario-based planning for strategic decision making and strategy development, as they mostly aim to develop macroenvironmental scenarios and test organizations’ existing strategies.

The paper suggests that changing the scope of scenario planning from environmental developments to the organization’s strategies themselves can further strengthen the method’s effectiveness for decision making.

The strategy scenario approach provides an enhanced approach to more comprehensively utilize the benefits of scenario-based reasoning for strategic decision making.

Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy mix to support the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. In this regard, this paper aims to present renewable energy (RE) development scenarios in Iran in the horizon of 2030.

Following the intuitive logic school and the Global Business Network model, the authors identified seven driving forces, according to the expert’s judgment, by brainstorming techniques which influence REs development in the horizon of 2030. By prioritizing driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty, “sustainable and green economy” and “emerging technology development” are the most instrumental uncertainties and the authors formed a two-axis scenario matrix with each representing an axis.

The results suggest four main scenarios of “Transition to Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Productivity with Black Gold” and “Desperation with Black Gold.” They include a wide range of possible situations of energy basket in the future ranging from dominance of fossil fuels to dominance of REs. The “Productivity with Black Gold” and the “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold” are the most probable scenarios of RE development by 2030 in Iran.

This paper indicates that the dominance of oil and gas resources would impede or at least slow down the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. Although the economic and environmental potentials and the inevitability of REs are well-understood, path dependence created by fossil fuels in Iran’s energy regime, either partially or fully, hinders the widespread development of REs which is the case in other resource-based countries as well.

The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of methodological choice possibilities.

The paper surveys the history of both terms in both the English language and more narrowly within scenario planning, critically assessing the confusions that have arisen. The paper questions the distinctions that have been made and offers a richer set of combinations to open up the methodological space available.

The paper suggests that the either/or stances that have been dominant in the literature – and even shaped distinctions between different schools of scenario planning – must be surpassed by a richer set of combinations that open up new methodological approaches and possibilities.

This is a conceptual and exploratory paper. Therefore the findings are propositions and tentative.

The paper opens up new ways of producing scenarios and may dissolve some of the infertile distinctions that have plagued the field to now.

The paper dilutes distinctions that have been accepted for decades and opens up new possibilities in the scenarios field, which is growing and is now producing some 2,200 peer-reviewed articles/year in English alone as per the EBSCO database.

In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters.

This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched.

A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning.

The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.

Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse.

In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios.

The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research.

The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.

The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.

Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.

Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

The aim of this paper is to draw on the social theory of practice to show scenario thinking as an everyday practice and how the practice could be theorised at the meso‐level.

Counterfactual analysis, scenario analysis and peripheral vision are presented as the constituting methodological triad through which scenario thinking comes into representation.

Scenario thinking is a temporally emerging everyday organizational practice. By placing emphasis on the mundane and taken for granted activities that come together to form the nexus of the practice, often deep underlying structures of organizational behaviour contributing to scenario thinking can be theorised.

The practice conceptualisation of scenario thinking inverts and challenges existing management and practitioners' conventional understanding of the practice as an episodic phenomenon in waiting to be facilitated by an expert with specific end points and conformity.

Foresight practitioners and researchers can use this as an analytical starting point for the study and theorising of scenario thinking in self organized groups.

The paper provides a new angle of vision to extend understanding of the development and theorising of scenario thinking in autonomous working groups.

The purpose of this paper is to explore recent literature on the impact of changes in the workplace environment and projected trends through to the year 2030. This allows the authors to identify and discuss what key trends are changing the nature of project organising work. The authors aim to identify what knowledge and which skills, attributes and experiences will be most likely valued and needed in 2030.

This paper is essentially a reflective review and is explorative in nature. The authors focus on several recent reports published in the UK and Australia that discuss the way that the future workforce will adapt and prepare for radical changes in the workplace environment. The authors focus on project organising work and the changing workplace knowledge, skills, attributes and experience (KSAE) needs of those working in project teams in 2030 and beyond. The authors draw upon existing KSAE literature including findings from a study undertaken into the KSAEs of project alliance managers working in a highly collaborative form of project delivery.

The analysis suggests that there is good and bad news about project workers prospects in 2030. The good news is that for those working in non-routine roles their work will be more interesting and rewarding than is the case for today. The bad news is that for workers in routine work roles, they will be replaced by advanced digital technology.

Few, if any, papers published in the project organising literature speculate about what this discipline may look like or what KSAEs will be valued and needed.

This paper opens up a debate about how project management/project organising work will be undertaken in future and what skills and expertise will be required. It also prompts project managers to think about how they will craft their careers in 2030 in response to expected work environment demands. This will have professional and learning implications.

The issue of the future workplace environment is highly relevant to the social context.

This paper is about a projected future some 12 years onward from today. It bridges a gap in any future debate about how project organising jobs may change and how they will be delivered in the 2030s.

The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

This paper presents strategic alliances as one fundamental tool in the process of constructing the future. The alliances are based on prospective scenarios, within strategic interactions.

The central key is the view of the most probable future as a NASH balance point. This point identifies not only a balance of forces, but also the negotiation limits for each actor and therefore the strategic alliances possible. The alliances, if achieved, create a “super actor”, destabilizing the original balance, and creating a new balance point, and therefore a more likely new future.

This article develops a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

This paper aims to identify four areas in need of future research to enhance the theoretical understanding of scenario planning (SP), and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes.

This paper organizes existing contributions on SP within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on SP from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human resource management, operations management and psychology.

This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding SP as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular study may be located in the SP process and, importantly, how it may influence – or be influenced by – various factors in the process.

This study offers specific research questions and precise guidelines to future scholars pursuing research on SP.