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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The purpose of this paper is to assess sub-national business cycle (BC) synchronization's impact on national cycles in four emerging markets economies with inflation targeting (IT-EMEs): Brazil, Colombia, South Korea and Mexico.

The authors use panel data models with fixed-effects and distributed lags.

The authors disclosed that sub-national synchronization increased national cycle amplitudes during expansion and recession phases. The authors also noticed that South Korea exhibited a more pronounced effect compared to Latin American countries, and this seemed to be associated with differences in the homogeneity of the production structures in the regions of these countries.

The authors cautioned that contrasting the findings with prior research on the effects of regional BC synchronization in IT-EMEs or with studies in different geographical contexts, is not possible due to the absence of prior research endeavors with this specific focus.

This study constitutes a first attempt to explain the impact of subnational cycle synchronization on the magnitude of national cycles in four IT-EMEs.

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of working capital efficiency (WCE) and its components on the composite financial performance of a sample of Indian firms.

Our sample includes 796 non-financial listed firms from 2015–16 to 2021–22. Sample firms’ profitability, liquidity, solvency, cash flow management, and financial and operational leverage have been used to classify them into companies with high composite financial performance (HCFP) and with low composite financial performance (LCFP) by using K-Means Clustering technique. A composite financial performance score (CFPS) of 1 has been assigned to HCFP and 0 to LCFP. We have used logistic regression models with fixed effect to estimate the effect of cash conversion cycle (CCC) and its components, i.e. inventory days, accounts receivable days and accounts payable days on CFPS in the presence of control variables such as growth, leverage, firm size, and age.

The study finds that CCC and inventory days are inversely associated with CFPS. This finding shows that the firms’ WCE leads to superior financial performance on a composite basis.

The research findings are based on samples drawn from the population of the listed Indian non-financial companies. Since the operation, financial practices, working capital policies, and management styles of firms vary greatly among nations, the results of this study should be extended to firms in other countries after taking into account the degree of resemblance to the sample firms.

The findings of this study hold significant value for industry practitioners, as they provide guidance in determining the optimal allocation of funds for working capital and devising strategies for effectively managing inventory levels, credit sales, and vendor payments in order to increase the overall value of the company. This study aims to help investors in building their investment portfolios by identifying companies with superior composite financial performance. Investors can enhance the construction of their investment portfolios by strategically selecting companies that demonstrate superior overall performance.

The results of our study will help companies improve their WCM strategies to enhance their overall value, and their significance increases manifold during economic downturns. Business firms that perform well by efficiently managing their working capital have a multiplier effect on the economy and society at large in the form of GDP contribution, labor income, taxes to the government, investment in capital assets, and payments to suppliers.

To understand the impact of WCE on firms’ performance, the extant working capital literature focuses on some specific characteristics such as profitability, valuation, solvency, and liquidity. The limitation of employing a single parameter is its inability to present the comprehensive performance evaluation of firms. This study is among the earliest studies that focus on the holistic evaluation of WCE's impact on the composite performance of a company.

Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.

Fiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.

Our findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.

In this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.

The paper aims to propose and validate a process-based model to enhance managerial effectiveness among micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). It has been observed that business uncertainties and inadequate financial resources that MSME entrepreneurs and managers face require them to constantly engage in strong self-awareness and self-regulating behavior to enhance the efficacy in their roles and, henceforth, their role performance effectiveness.

The approach for data collection was based on the clustering of MSMEs belonging to the clusters machine tool, pump manufacturing, foundry, textile and auto-component clusters in India. The respondents to the study were MSME entrepreneurs and managers who oversee and manage multiple functions like operations, quality, marketing, sales, supply chain management, procurement, personnel and administration and general administration.

The self-efficacy of entrepreneurial managers of MSMEs is observed to play an integral role in enhancing the efficacy of their roles, thus highlighting the use of a process-based perspective while dealing with constant resource constraints and excessive dynamism in their business contexts. The ability to handle multiple tasks effectively and resilience to manage challenges enhances their role-making process, which is significant in achieving and sustaining goal-oriented behavior among MSME entrepreneurs and managers.

This paper would serve as an effective model for entrepreneurs and managers to enhance their efficacy in the individual and interdependent role context, which would help achieve their individual and organizational goals. The model emphasizes a process-based perspective that thrusts the need to relate to the organizational context, enhancing individual confidence for goal-related behavior and fulfilling their role-related expectations.

This paper presents a model of enhancing managerial effectiveness that discusses self-efficacy as antecedent behavior. Here, personal and environmental factors aid cognition to one’s capability to construct reality, self-regulate, encode information and engage in effective managerial action.

The purpose of this study is to examine the propagation of consumer and business confidence in the euro area with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC) and the COVID-19-induced Great Lockdown.

The authors apply Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectedness framework and the improved method based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model.

The authors find that although the evolution of business confidence marked the GFC and the ESDC the role of consumer confidence (mainly in those countries with stricter containment and closure measures) increased in the COVID-19-induced crisis.

The findings are related to the different origins of the examined crisis periods, and the analysis of their interrelationship is a very relevant topic for future research.

Limited research exists on the role of information access as a key success factor for rural entrepreneurs. The purpose of this study is to examine the importance of information access, among other inequality forms, in shaping entrepreneurial outcomes.

The authors used a qualitative, inductive research methodology. They conducted interviews with rural entrepreneurs and gained insights into the role of information access and basic tangible resources in shaping their ventures.

The authors identified two critical factors that impact rural entrepreneurs: inequalities in access to information and basic tangible resources. They found that inequalities in rural entrepreneurship are often interrelated, rather than isolated. The authors demonstrated that the relationship between entrepreneurship and inequality is not solely characterized by a positive or negative correlation but is a dynamic interplay where certain inequality forms may create barriers to opportunities for some individuals while creating opportunities for others.

The authors uncovered key barriers in rural entrepreneurship and constructed a roadmap to effectively address these challenges, providing valuable insights to policymakers and support initiatives and enabling the target of high-impact resources. This research supports efforts to provide rural entrepreneurs with equal opportunities to grow and succeed.

This research significantly contributes to the field by examining the complexities of entrepreneurship in emerging economies, with a particular focus on rural areas. The authors introduced a comprehensive conceptual model linking inequality and entrepreneurship, explored the challenges faced by rural entrepreneurs and offered strategic policy recommendations for development initiatives.

The circular economy (CE) promotes the recovery of value from waste while also working towards achieving long-term environmentally sustainable goals. The goal of this research is to explore the challenges, opportunities, future scope and green practices that small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) face as they move from the linear economy to the CE.

Based on a structured questionnaire, a survey was conducted with representatives from 163 SMEs in India. The data were analysed using co-variance based structural equation modelling technique.

This research identifies various challenges, including consumer acceptability, worries about awareness, recyclability issues, financial constraints and the absence of a defined management plan for SMEs in adopting the CE. Further, strong management will, innovation, technical up-gradation, training of employees, employee motivation and appropriate guidelines are recognized as essential possibilities for CE implementation.

While there has been some work on CE, no studies have directly compared these efforts with the goal of shifting from a linear economy to a CE. Given the transient nature of many archives, it is critical that the efforts put into them and the opinions of those who work in them be recorded so that communities can benefit from a shared linear economy in making decisions about their own history.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on company innovation, specifically centering on the quantity and quality of innovation. The paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of whether the epidemic inhibits innovation and the role of digital transformation in mitigating this negative impact.

The paper uses a quasi-experimental study of the COVID-19 pandemic and constructs a differential model to analyze the relationship between the epidemic and firm innovation in three dimensions: total, quantity and quality. The paper also uses a difference-in-difference-in-differences model to test whether digital transformation of firms mitigates the negative impact of the epidemic and its mechanism of action.

The results show that COVID-19 significantly reduced the overall level of firm innovation, primarily in terms of quantity rather than quality. Furthermore, this study finds that digital transformation plays a pivotal role in mitigating the pandemic’s adverse impact on innovation. By addressing financing constraints and countering demand insufficiency, digital transformation acts as a catalyst for preserving and fostering innovation during and after the pandemic.

This study extends the current research on the pandemic’s impact on firm innovation at the micro level. It offers valuable insights into strategies for fostering digital transformation among Chinese enterprises in the post-pandemic era.

Although the significance of technological progress in economic development is well-established in theory and policy, it has remained challenging to agree upon shared priorities for strategies and policies. This paper aims to develop a model of how policymakers can develop effective and easy to communicate strategies for science, technology and economic development.

By integrating insights from economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature, a replicable research framework for analysing the opportunities and challenges of technological revolutions for small catching-up countries is developed. The authors highlight key lessons from piloting this framework for informing the strategy and policies for bioeconomy in Estonia towards 2030–2050.

The integration of economic complexity research with traditional foresight methods establishes a solid analytical basis for a data-driven analysis of the opportunities for industrial upgrading. The increase in the importance of regional alliances in the global economy calls for further advancement of the analytical toolbox. Integration of complexity, global value chains and export potential assessment approaches offers valuable direction for further research, as it enables discussion of the opportunities of moving towards more knowledge-intensive economic activities along with the opportunities for winning international market share.

The research merges insights from the economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature in a novel way and illustrates the applicability and priority-setting in a real-life setting.