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Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

This study examines whether international tourism demand in the Visegrád countries is influenced by countries' risk rating on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors, as non-economic factors relating to ESG risks have been ignored by previous researches on determinants of international tourism demand.

The study investigates panel data for the Visegrád countries comprising the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia over the period 1995–2019. Recently developed techniques of augmented mean group (AMG) and common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimators are employed so as to take care of cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary residuals and possible heterogeneous slope coefficients.

The regression estimates suggest that besides economic factors, the perception of international tourists regarding ESG risk is another important determinant of international tourism demand in the Visegrád countries. The study also established that income levels in the tourists' originating countries are the most critical determinant of international tourism demand to the Visegrád countries.

The research outcomes of the study include the need for the Visegrád countries to direct policies towards further mitigating their ESG risks in order to improve future international tourism demand in the area. They also need to ensure exchange rate stability to prevent volatility and sudden spikes in the relative price of tourism in their countries.

This study aims to develop an educational tourism demand model, particularly in respect to dynamic effects, university quality (QU) and competitor countries. Educational tourism has been identified as a new tourism sub-sector with high potential, and is thus expected to boost economic growth and sustainability.

This study reviews the literature on the determinants of educational tourism demand. Even though the existing literature is intensively discussed, mostly focusing on the educational tourism demand from an individual consumer's perspective, this study makes an innovation in line with the aggregate demand view. The study uses data that consist of the enrolment of international students from 47 home countries who studied in Malaysia from 2008 to 2017. The study utilised the dynamic panel method of analysis.

This study affirms that income per capita, educational tourism price, price of competitor countries and quality of universities based on accredited programmes and world university ranking are the determinants of educational tourism demand in both the short and the long term. Also, a dynamic effect exists in educational tourism demand.

The results imply that government should take the quality of services for existing students, price decisions and QU into account to promote the country as a tertiary education hub and achieve sustainable development.

Research on the determinants of the demand for educational tourism is rare in terms of macro data, and this study includes the roles of QU, competitor countries and dynamic effects.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Andalusia’s tourism promotion budgets and the efficiency of its campaigns from 2010 to 2022.

A mixed-methods approach is used. Tourism promotion budgets from 2010 to 2022 were measured as a supply indicator. Demand indicators (e.g. airport’s passenger arrivals, number of tourists and hotel occupancy rate) are analysed to measure tourism promotion budget impacts on them.

Tourism promotion budgets are a priority to stimulate tourism demand for Andalusia in times of uncertainly, and promotion campaigns are pivotal to attract and convert potential customers into actual tourists. Moreover, findings reveal that tourism promotion budgets had positive impacts on tourism demand. Whereas tourism promotion campaigns such as “Andalucía wants you back”, “Intensely”, Fitur, World Travel Market, ITB Berlin events and tourism advertising through digital channels have helped to improve tourism demand in Andalusia, ignoring the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the year 2020.

This study emphasizes how tourism promotion budgets and promotion campaigns must be constantly monitored by destination marketing organizations to measure the efficiency and effectiveness of assigned economic budgets and its return on investment.

The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty and in which some megatrends have the potential to reshape society in the next decades. This paper, considering the opportunity offered by the application of the quantitative analysis on internet new data sources, proposes a prediction method using Google Trends data based on an estimated transfer function model.

The paper uses the time-series methods to model and predict Google Trends data. A transfer function model is used to transform the prediction of Google Trends data into predictions of tourist arrivals. It predicts the United States tourism demand in Italy.

The results highlight the potential expressed by the use of big data-driven foresight approach. Applying a transfer function model on internet search data, timely forecasts of tourism flows are obtained. The two scenarios emerged can be used in tourism stakeholders’ decision-making process. In a future perspective, the methodological path could be applied to other tourism origin markets, to other internet search engine or other socioeconomic and environmental contexts.

The study raises awareness of foresight literacy in the tourism sector. Secondly, it complements the research on tourism demand forecasting by evaluating the performance of quantitative forecasting techniques on new data sources. Thirdly, it is the first paper that makes the United States arrival predictions in Italy. Finally, the findings provide immediate valuable information to tourism stakeholders that could be used to make decisions.

There is little knowledge to date regarding the influence of the COVID-19 health crisis on tourists' intention to travel differently in the future. This paper addresses this and explores its determinants. The objective of the present study is to determine to what extent the Spanish tourists affected by COVID-19 may change the way they travel in the future, according to the perceived risk of travel in a pandemic context.

Between May and June 2020, the authors conducted a survey with a sample population of Spanish tourists who were resident in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic, for the purposes of studying the role of attitudes and risk in the intention to change the way they want to travel in the future. Cluster analysis and one-way ANOVA were conducted to assess differences among the respondents. Finally, some models were built using the linear regression technique in order to evaluate the role of attitudes in the tourists' adaptive response to the perceived risk of travel.

Results confirm the formation of a new way of life influencing tourists' intentions to travel more sustainably. Accordingly, tourists with a previous environmental attitude are less interested in visiting mass tourism beach destinations in the future. However, changes in the way some tourists travel can also be read as an adaptive and temporary response to the perceived risk of contracting the disease, and do not point to a reduction of the vital importance of tourism in their lives.

The exploratory nature of the study and the lack of similar international analyses does not allow the authors to contrast its results at a global level, though it offers a starting point for future research in other countries. There are also methodological limitations, since the field work was carried out between the first and second waves of the disease, at a time when the pandemic was in remission, possibly affecting the orientation of some responses, given the desire to recover normalcy and “normal” travel, and this may have influenced the priority given to tourism.

This study gives new insights into the debate on the social transformation of the collective consciousness. Despite some signs of change, part of the Spanish tourists are still anchored in traditional tourism practices embedded in cultural factors, which can hinder sustainability in the Spanish tourism industry. The experience of the COVID-19 crisis has not been sufficient to change the declared travel habits of Spanish tourists. Therefore, progress towards the definition of a new tourism system that implies the effective transformation of demand will require applying policies and promoting institutional innovation and education to create paths that facilitate transformative experiences.

The study is focused on the analysis of the relationship between attitudes and risk perception, including novel elements that enrich the academic debate on social progress in the transformation of tourism and the possibilities of promoting a reset from the demand side. Moreover, it incorporates, for the first time, the COVID-19 as it was experienced as an explanatory variable to analyse the changing travel attitudes in a post-COVID-19 era. The analysis of the psychosocial mechanisms of risk offers a good opportunity for a better assessment of post-pandemic demand risk perception. Finally, the study offers empirical evidence on how Spanish tourists are reimagining their next and future holidays, which can be highly valuable for destination managers.

This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.

Two sets of experiments are performed in this research. First, the predictive accuracy of three ML models, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN), is compared against the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model using historical tourist arrivals as features. Subsequently, the impact of incorporating social media data from TripAdvisor and Google Trends as additional features is investigated.

The findings reveal that the ML models generally outperform the SARIMA model, particularly from 2019 to 2021, when several unexpected events occurred in Sri Lanka. When integrating social media data, the RF model performs significantly better during most years, whereas the SVR model does not exhibit significant improvement. Although adding social media data to the ANN model does not yield superior forecasts, it exhibits proficiency in capturing data trends.

The findings offer substantial implications for the industry's growth and resilience, allowing stakeholders to make accurate data-driven decisions to navigate the unpredictable dynamics of Sri Lanka's tourism sector.

This study presents the first exploration of ML models and the integration of social media data for forecasting Sri Lankan tourist arrivals, contributing to the advancement of research in this domain.

This study aims to find a dynamic model in an effort to optimize tourism performance in ecotourism destinations. The model structure is built based on competitive performance in geographic areas and the application of ecotourism elements that are integrated with big data innovation through artificial intelligence technology.

Data analysis is performed through dynamic system modeling. Simulations are carried out in three models: First, existing simulation models. Second, Scenario 1 is carried out by utilizing a causal loop through innovation of big data-based artificial intelligence technology to ecotourism elements. Third, Scenario 2 is carried out by utilizing a causal loop through big data-based artificial intelligence technology on aspects of ecotourism elements and destination competitiveness.

This study provides empirical insight into the competitiveness performance of destinations and the performance of implementing ecotourism elements if integrated with big data innovations that will be able to massively demonstrate the growth of sustainable tourism performance.

This study does not use a primary database, but uses secondary data from official sources that can be accessed by the public.

The paper includes implications for the development of intelligent technology based on big data and also requires policy innovation.

Sustainable tourism development.

This study finds the expansion of new theory competitiveness of ecotourism destinations.

The purpose of this study was to uncover representative emergent areas and to examine the research area of marketing, tourism and big data (BD) to assess how these thematic areas have developed over a 27-year time period from 1996 to 2022. This study analyzed 1,152 studies to identify the principal thematic areas and emergent topics, principal theories used, predominant forms of analysis and the most productive authors in terms of research.

The articles for this research were all selected from the Web of Science database. A systematic and quantitative literature review was performed. This study used SciMAT software to extract indicators. Specifically, this study analyzed productivity and produced a science map.

The findings suggest that interest in this area has increased gradually. The outputs also reveal the innovative effort of industry in new technologies for developing models for tourism marketing. Ten research areas were identified: “destination marketing,” “mobility patterns,” “co-creation,” “gastronomy,” “sustainability,” “tourist behavior,” “market segmentation,” “artificial neural networks,” “pricing” and “tourist satisfaction.”

This work is unique in proposing an agenda for future research into tourism marketing research with new technologies such as BD and artificial intelligence techniques. In addition, the results presented here fill the current gap in the research since while there have been literature reviews covering tourism with BD or marketing, these areas have not been studied as a whole.

El objetivo de esta investigación fue descubrir nichos representativos de áreas emergentes y examinar el área de Marketing, Turismo y Big Data, evaluando cómo han evolucionado estas áreas temáticas durante un período de 27 años desde 1996–2022. Analizamos 1.152 investigaciones para identificar las principales áreas temáticas y temas emergentes, las principales teorías utilizadas, las formas de análisis predominantes y los autores más productivos en términos de investigación.

Todos los artículos para esta investigación fueron seleccionados de la base de datos Web of Science. Realizamos una revisión sistemática y cuantitativa de la literatura. Utilizamos el software SciMAT para extraer indicadores. Específicamente, analizamos la productividad y elaboramos un mapeo científico.

Los hallazgos sugieren que el interés en esta área ha aumentado gradualmente. Los resultados también revelan el esfuerzo innovador de la industria en nuevas tecnologías para desarrollar modelos de marketing turístico. Se identificaron diez áreas de investigación (“marketing de destinos”, “patrones de movilidad”, “co-creación”, “gastronomía”, “sostenibilidad”, “comportamiento turístico”, “segmentación de mercado”, “redes neuronales artificiales”, “precios”, y “satisfacción del turista”).

Este trabajo es único al proponer una agenda para futuras investigaciones en investigación de Marketing Turístico con nuevas tecnologías como Big Data y técnicas de Inteligencia Artificial. Además, los resultados presentados aquí llenan el vacío actual en la investigación ya que si bien se han realizado revisiones de literatura que cubren Turismo con Big Data o Marketing, estas áreas no se han estudiado como un conjunto.

这一特定研究领域的目标是发现具有代表性的新兴领域, 并考察市场营销、旅游和大数据研究领域, 以评估这些主题领域在1996年至2022年的27年间是如何发展的。我们分析了1152项研究, 以确定主要专题领域和新兴主题、使用的主要理论、主要的分析形式以及在研究方面最有成效的作者。

本研究的文章都是从Web of Science数据库中选出的。我们进行了系统化的定量文献审查, 并使用SciMAT软件来提取指标。具体来说, 我们分析了生产力并制作了一个科学研究地图。

研究结果表明, 人们对这一领域的兴趣已经逐渐增加。本文也揭示了工业界在开发旅游营销模式的新技术方面的创新努力。研究确定了十个研究领域：“目的地营销”、“流动模式”、“共同创造”、“美食”、“可持续性”、“游客行为”、“市场细分”、“人工神经网络”、“定价 “和游客满意度”。

这项研究的独特之处在于提出了未来利用大数据和人工智能技术等新技术进行旅游营销研究的议程。此外, 本文的结果填补了目前的研究空白, 因为虽然有文献综述涉及旅游与大数据或市场营销, 但这些领域还没有被作为一个整体来研究。

Analyzing the main determinants that lead a traveler to make a cultural trip is an important issue to understand where the cultural tourism market is going, and where the decision-makers should intervene. This study helps develop a profile of cultural tourism participants, and underscore the changes in this market niche. This information is crucial for the successful marketing and development of cultural tourism in the future.

The authors estimate a binary probabilistic (logit) model to determine the probability of a tourist to travel for cultural reasons, as a function of the traveler's socio-economic characteristic (e.g. age, gender, income or level of studies), of the trip-related characteristics (e.g. distance traveled to destination or mode of transport) and of the characteristics of the province of destination (e.g. weather conditions or existence of cultural sites at destination).

This study’s estimates reveal that middle-aged individuals, with a higher level of studies and with a medium level of income show a higher propensity to travel for cultural reasons. The latter finding evidences that cultural tourism has evolved from a niche market reserved for an elite clientele to a much wider range of people. Additionally, cultural travelers tend to travel statistically much longer distances. They are less prone to visit crowded destinations, prefer visiting destinations with important cultural sites, and are less sensitive to weather conditions. Finally, the authors discover a complementary effect of culture tourism and other activities carried out during the trip such as visiting cities or theme parks; and a substitution effect with “beach-and-sun” tourism.

The information given in this study can be crucial for the successful marketing and development of cultural tourism in the future. A better understanding of the main determinants of being a cultural traveler implies a better and a more efficient implementation of managerial and political measures to attract a kind of tourism characterized by a high spending capacity.

Discovering the main determinants of being a cultural traveler is a topic scarcely treated in the literature. This study has the main originality to include characteristics of the destination (pull factors) to explain the individual's decision to take a cultural trip. Moreover, the authors work at a provincial (NUTS-3) level of analysis, which makes this study original in the field of cultural tourism.