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The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate three issues: how does an innovative search (local search and boundary-spanning search) impact firm innovation performance of latecomers; how does capability reconfiguration (capability evolution and capability substitution) mediates the relationship between innovative search and firm innovation performance; and how does the technological leapfrogging process (initial stage, following stage, synchronization stage and leading stage) moderate the relationship between capability reconfiguration and firm innovation performance.

A “resource-capability-performance” theoretical framework was developed to explore the relationships between local/boundary-spanning search, capability reconfiguration and firm innovation performance. The data were collected by sending out surveys to managers and employees in various industries in mainland China. These hypotheses were tested using structural equation models and hierarchical regressions.

The results showed that: innovative search has a direct causal relationship to capability reconfiguration; local search and boundary-spanning search are conducive to improve the innovation performance of latecomers; the impact of local search and boundary-spanning search on innovation performance is realized through the completion of mediating role of capability reconfiguration; there are differences in the path of local search and boundary-spanning search affecting the capability reconfiguration of enterprise innovation performance; and the relationship between innovative search, capability reconfiguration and enterprise innovation performance evolves with the enterprise in different stages of technological leapfrogging.

This study explores the relationship and the path of innovative search to firm innovation performance and analyzes the path difference between local search and boundary-spinning search, which enriches the research of organizational search and enterprise innovation. This paper reveals the whole path of innovative search affecting innovation performance, discusses the important role of capability reconfiguration and makes incremental contributions to dynamic capability theory. It studies the evolution of innovative search on innovation performance under the background of technological leapfrogging, which provides a new perspective for the study of organizational search and capability-based theory.

The purpose of this study is to synthesize the literature on the topic of strategic renewal by identifying the key dimensions of extant research and the connections between fragmented research domains.

This study applies systematic literature review to identify the level of consistency and generalizability of research findings across existing studies in a comprehensive manner.

This study identifies six main themes of strategic renewal in the extant literature: (1) antecedents, (2) initiation, (3) logic, (4) structure, (5) process and (6) outcomes of strategic renewal.

By integrating the current streams of research, the review offers a conceptual model of strategic renewal that maps the current state of the research and provide insights into key themes for the future research.

This study, identifies connections between fragmented research domain and offers a conceptual framework of strategic renewal.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between organizational performance and the pattern of strategic decisions formalized in the planning of a Brazilian heavy construction company between 2006 and 2014. In this period, the company experienced a recurrent pattern of maintaining strategic decisions, despite the systematic decrease in performance and investments in the formal strategic planning (SP) and monitoring of results. The research focus is on strategic inertia and the influence of social determinants on the relationship between performance and the strategic actions negotiated in formal planning.

This is a single-case study. The exploratory-descriptive research comprises data collection on performance and strategic decisions from the period between 2006 and 2014. The analysis was guided through documentary material and data collected from 16 interviews conducted with members of the middle to top management concerning performance, goals, and strategic initiatives. The interviewees’ statements were used to apprehend the interpreted dimension of SP expressed in the meanings attributed to this process. The analysis adopts a sociological base, and strategic inertia is the underlying phenomenon that guides this analysis.

The results show the interactive effect caused by political, cognitive, discursive, and ceremonial mechanisms obstruct the company’s strategic decisions. This case study illustrates that the conditions for the phenomenon of path dependence were created, reinforcing the strategic inertia observed in the maintenance of a reproduced pattern of strategic initiatives and goals, even though the performance was recurrently unsatisfactory. In this case, strategic inertia showed a complex relationship between the interpreted performance and strategic actions negotiated in formal planning, conditioned by mechanisms of trajectory reinforcement that interfered with the conditions for strategic change.

Strategic inertia demonstrates a complex relationship between the interpreted performance and strategic actions negotiated in formal planning, conditioned by mechanisms of trajectory reinforcement that interfere with the conditions for strategic change. Future research on social mechanisms from the perspective of strategy-as-practice could be developed to capture the tacit components, language, power games, and other relevant categories in the social interaction of strategy development at the organizational level. In addition, future research could focus on investigating the extent to which path dependence is contingent, assuming that it is a temporary and, therefore, reversible process.

This work contributes to the view of SP from the social perspective and shows that the relationship between performance and strategy has biases that can compromise performance. The work highlights implications for maintaining strategic initiative patterns, which shape a path whose function is less associated with its effects on performance and more associated with the commitment to instrumental results, due to the social nature of organizations.

This work deals with social mechanisms that influence strategic decisions. Since organizational performance depends on strategic decisions, the social nature of strategic inertia has causal implications to economic and social impact of organizations.

This work argues in favor of the influence of self-reinforcing mechanisms of path dependence in the relationship between performance and strategic decisions. The results extended the predominantly structural approach of path dependence by considering interpretive aspects related to the political, discursive, cognitive, and ceremonial dimensions of strategic inertia.

The purpose of this article is to develop a conceptual framework that sets out the linkages that exist between digitalisation and active labour market policies (ALMPs).

Based on a narrative literature review, this article seeks to connect two research streams, namely that relating to ALMPs and that relating to digitalisation in the public sector. This exercise requires an understanding of both how the context of digitalisation in the public sector has evolved in relation to technological change and the identification of specific ALMPs that are more sensitive to digitalisation.

Starting from the identification of ideal-types of ALMPs, “employment assistance” can be considered the type of policies most sensitive to digitalisation, looking at main forms of interventions as career guidance, profiling and job-matching tools. The first tool is closer to a technological domain of “remotisation”, while the second is closer to that of “automatisation”.

Achieving an understanding of the different degrees of sensitivity to digitalisation for various types of ALMPs is relevant for policy-making purposes to identify potential priority areas of strategic investment to enhance this sector.

The authors present an understanding of the current state of the digitalisation of public employment services. The literature review itself allowed the authors to conclude that, despite the interests in the public and academic debate, the existing research relating to the digitalisation of public employment services remains scant. At the same time, the article points towards fertile areas for further analysis.

Urban digital transformation has become a key strategy in global countries. This study aims to provide a comprehensive and dynamic exploration of the intrinsic traits associated with urban digital transformation, in order to yield detailed insights that can contribute to the formulation of well-informed decisions and strategies in the field of urban development initiatives.

Through analysis of parallels between urban digital transformation and gyroscope motion in physics, the study developed the urban digital transformation gyroscope model (UDTGM), which comprises of seven core elements. With the balanced panel dataset from 268 cities at and above the prefecture level in China, we validate the dynamic mechanism of this model.

The findings of this study underscore that the collaboration among infrastructure development, knowledge-driven forces and economic operations markedly bolsters the urban digital transformation gyroscope’s efficacy.

This research introduces a groundbreaking framework for comprehending urban digital transformation, potentially facilitating its balanced and systemic practical implementation.

This study pioneers the UDTGM theoretically and verifies the dynamic mechanism of this model with real data.

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

In 2020, the education system was preliminary halted by the COVID-19 crisis and went through radical improvisation, and online-based distance learning was the only plausible initiative to continue educational activities ensuring health guidelines properly. However, in reality, such desperate measure in case of a lower-middle-income developing nation lacking proper structural capabilities raised some issues and concerns for both pupils and mentors, and this study aims to explore the practice of online-based distance learning in private universities of Bangladesh and the challenges associated with it.

This exploratory research is qualitative in nature. A total number of 89 undergraduate level university students from different private universities were divided into two main clusters and interviewed in depth.

The findings of this paper revealed that common developing country syndromes like improper technological infrastructure development, limitation to devices or internet accessibility and financial hindrances can disrupt the harmony of the online learning experience. Also, the lack of tech literacy has created a huge tension and psychological inertia among both the teachers and the students.

The coronavirus pandemic event, with its dreadful influence, is creating immense mental pressures for students to cope well with the online learning system. Comprehending the underlying challenges affiliated with online-based distance learning and enabling faculties or respected personnel with training and development programs to handle impediments better way, this learning initiative can ensure the best outcomes.

The significance of this study lies in comprehending the feasibility of online-based education regarding lower-middle-income developing nation context and the realism of such learning process's acceptability considering its actual effectiveness.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse if the divergences in the economic growth of the Spanish regions are a result of sectoral differences, company size or technological level of the new firms that emerge in the market.

For this purpose, a model is specified and estimated in which the total factor productivity of Spanish regions is explained by business dynamics, innovation, human capital and the level of entrepreneurship in each region.

The results obtained lead the authors to conclude that entrepreneurship understood as both the creation of new firms and entrepreneurial activity, have a positive effect on productive efficiency and can explain the differences in the economic growth of the regions. In addition, the stock of human capital and the promotion of innovation act as catalysts for the productive efficiency of the regions. However, the results show that it is not enough to generate new firms to boost economic growth; these businesses must also be oriented towards sectors that promote technological innovation and with the objective to reach an adequate size.

Empirical studies use either the creation of new firms or the index of entrepreneurial activity as alternative measures of entrepreneurship. In this research, however, both variables are considered together. Specifically, the creation of new companies is used as a measure of regional business dynamics, and the entrepreneurial activity index, provided by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, as a measure of regional entrepreneurship. The main novelty of this paper’s approach is that it considers different types of entrepreneurial capital in considering productive sector, size and technological level of the new companies.

This study draws on technological frames to provide an understanding of organizational processes of strategizing by exploring how strategizing organizational capabilities for industrial digitalization could be understood through managers' perceptions of digital technology applications. This study complements earlier research focused on industry outcomes by addressing technological frames to understand how strategizing organizational capabilities within industrial digitalization may provide insight into socio-cognitive aspects which may affect technology-induced organizational change.

The single case study uses 14 in-depth interviews collected over two years (October 2020 to February 2022). The study follows an interpretative research design exploring managers' perceptions of industrial digitalization through a digitalization project.

The case study contributes to research by emphasizing socio-cognitive aspects through technological frames exploring how and why managers' perceptions of industrial digitalization affect strategizing organizational capabilities. The study contributes to practice by bringing attention to the disparate views of industrial digitalization. By illustrating how socio-cognitive aspects shape organizational capabilities, this study offers managers valuable insight into the relationship between an organization's capabilities, the individual and the shared structures affecting a digitalization project.

The case study is limited to Swedish manufacturing industries and is not aiming to be transferred or generalized to other industrial contexts or countries.

This study recognizes that strategizing organizational capabilities depends on managers' ability to illuminate the socio-cognitive aspects. Hence, the study contributes to practice by bringing attention to the disparate views among managers on the enhancement efforts made using digital technologies.