Search results

1 – 10 of 141
Article
Publication date: 21 November 2016

Xiaopeng Zou, Zihan Ye and Qiuzi Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to present a clear path to securitize the longevity risk with two distinct swaps in order to inspire a new Chinese life market.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present a clear path to securitize the longevity risk with two distinct swaps in order to inspire a new Chinese life market.

Design/methodology/approach

Studies on longevity risk securitization consist of three aspects, respectively, instrument design, pricing methodology and mortality projection. The swaps designed are referenced, respectively, to vanilla and complex survivor swaps (Dowd et al., 2006; Lin and Cox, 2005). Methods applied are RHH model and Gompertz law for mortality projection, as well as two-factor Wang transformation for pricing.

Findings

This paper figures out the market price of risk in Chinese annuity market, checks for the sensitivity of the price to parameters and tests the hedging effects by Monte Carlo simulation.

Originality/value

Based on the theoretical and numerical results, this paper suggests an effective way to possibly witness the birth of New Life Market in China.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 6 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 February 2013

Paul Dawson, Hai Lin and Yangshu Liu

Longevity risk, that is, the uncertainty of the demographic survival rate, is an important risk for insurance companies and pension funds, which have large, and long‐term…

Abstract

Purpose

Longevity risk, that is, the uncertainty of the demographic survival rate, is an important risk for insurance companies and pension funds, which have large, and long‐term, exposures to survivorship. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new model to describe this demographic survival risk.

Design/methodology/approach

The model proposed in this paper satisfies all the desired properties of a survival rate and has an explicit distribution for both single years and accumulative years.

Findings

The results show that it is important to consider the expected shift and risk premium of life table uncertainty and the stochastic behaviour of survival rates when pricing the survivor derivatives.

Originality/value

This model can be applied to the rapidly growing market for survivor derivatives.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 August 2015

Alexander Hendrik Maegebier

– Two strands of the literature are combined, namely the modeling of disability insurance and the design, valuation and discussion of insurance-linked securities.

Abstract

Purpose

Two strands of the literature are combined, namely the modeling of disability insurance and the design, valuation and discussion of insurance-linked securities.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper provides a discussion regarding the advantages and detriments of disability-linked securities in comparison with mortality-linked bonds and swaps as well as regarding potential disability-linked indices and the potential use. The discussion is followed by an introduction of a potential design and a corresponding valuation of disability bonds and swaps.

Findings

This securitization will provide useful tools for the risk management of disability risk in a risk-based regulatory framework.

Originality/value

No disability-linked securities have been defined and discussed so far.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 August 2014

Jonas Lorson and Joël Wagner

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to hedge annuity portfolios against increases in life expectancy. Across the globe, and in the industrial nations in particular…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to hedge annuity portfolios against increases in life expectancy. Across the globe, and in the industrial nations in particular, people have seen an unprecedented increase in their life expectancy over the past decades. The benefits of this apply to the individual, but the dangers apply to annuity providers. Insurance companies often possess no effective tools to address the longevity risk inherent in their annuity portfolio. Securitization can serve as a substitute for classic reinsurance, as it also transfers risk to third parties.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper extends on methods insurer's can use to hedge their annuity portfolio against longevity risk with the help of annuity securitization. Future mortality rates with the Lee-Carter-model and use the Wang-transformation to incorporate insurance risk are forecasted. Based on the percentile tranching method, where individual tranches are aligned to Standard & Poor's ratings, we price an inverse survivor bond. This bond offers fix coupon payments to investors, while the principal payments are at risk and depend on the survival rate within the underlying portfolio.

Findings

The contribution to the academic literature is threefold. On the theoretical side, building on the work of Kim and Choi (2011), we adapt their pricing model to the current market situation. Putting the principal at risk instead of the coupon payments, the insurer is supplied with sufficient capital to cover additional costs due to longevity. On the empirical side, the method for the German market is specified. Inserting specific country data into the model, price sensitivities of the presented securitization model are analyzed. Finally, in a case study, the procedure to the annuity portfolio of a large German life insurer is applied and the price of hedging longevity risk is calculated.

Practical implications

To illustrate the implication of this bond structure, several sensitivity tests were conducted before applying the pricing model to the retail sample annuity portfolio from a leading German life insurer. The securitization structure was applied to calculate the securitization prices for a sample portfolio from a large life insurance company.

Social implications

The findings contribute to the current discussion about how insurers can face longevity risk within their annuity portfolios. The fact that the rating structure has such a severe impact on the overall hedging costs for the insurer implies that companies that are willing to undergo an annuity securitization should consider their deal structure very carefully. In addition, we have pointed out that in imperfect markets, the retention of the equity tranche by the originator might be advantageous. Nevertheless, one has to bear in mind that by this behavior, the insurer is able to reduce the overall default risk in his balance sheet by securitizing a life insurance portfolio; however, the fraction of first loss pieces from defaults increases more than proportionally. The insurer has to take care to not be left with large, unwanted remaining risk positions in his books.

Originality/value

In this paper, we extend on methods insurer's can use to hedge their annuity portfolio against longevity risk with the help of annuity securitization. To do so, we take the perspective of the issuing insurance company and calculate the costs of hedging in a four-step process. On the theoretical side, building on the work of Kim and Choi (2011), we adapt their pricing model to the current market situation. On the empirical side, we specify the method for the German market. Inserting specific country data into the model, price sensitivities of the presented securitization model are analyzed.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 October 2006

Robert Hudson

Bodies with responsibilities for paying pensions to individuals face a mortality risk in that the pensioners may prove longer lived than expected. The significant scale and…

590

Abstract

Purpose

Bodies with responsibilities for paying pensions to individuals face a mortality risk in that the pensioners may prove longer lived than expected. The significant scale and uncertainity of this risk is becoming increasingly clear. Various measures are available to control this risk and new innovations such as mortality linked bonds and derivatives have been proposed. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the alternative methods of controlling morality risk and discuss their potential policy implications.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper considers the various parties affected by mortaling risk and assesses the difficulties of predicting mortality. Different methods of predicting mortality are discussed. Policy issues are considered and conclusions presented.

Findings

There is a huge demand for methods of hedging and trading mortality risk. Financial markets are responding to this with a number of insurers moving into the bulk annuity market. New products, such as survivor bands and mortality derivatives, are just appearing in the market, it is still to be seen whether this major financial problem will be best be solved by the financial markets or by government intervention.

Originality/value

The paper offers an evaluation of the alternative methods of controlling mortality risk together with the potential policy implications.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 November 2010

Miret Padovani and Paolo Vanini

The purpose of this paper is to address the issue of intergenerational and international sharing of longevity and growth risks. Current research on worldwide demographic changes…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to address the issue of intergenerational and international sharing of longevity and growth risks. Current research on worldwide demographic changes highlights the importance of longevity risk on financial markets and the need to devise optimal hedging vehicles.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presents a potential financial innovation between two countries at different stages of economic development and with different long‐term challenges. This 30‐year‐long swap is structured in such a way to capture the different timing of needed funds of the two countries and the funding capabilities of each generation: the more developed economy requires funds in the future to cover expenses for its ageing population, while the developing economy needs funds today to pay for educational, technological, and other infrastructural services. To price the swap, the paper applies an exponential‐utility‐based pricing method and defines an interval of prices allowing a contract to be agreed upon.

Findings

Via the exponential‐utility‐based pricing method, the paper shows how the bid‐ask spread varies with respect to the governments' risk and time preferences.

Originality/value

The paper is believed to be the first to illustrate the structuring and pricing of a long‐term longevity swap between two countries at different stages of economic development and to discuss practical challenges derivative structures would face if they were to implement such a strategy.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 11 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 July 2020

Canicio Dzingirai and Nixon S. Chekenya

The life insurance industry has been exposed to high levels of longevity risk born from the mismatch between realized mortality trends and anticipated forecast. Annuity providers…

Abstract

Purpose

The life insurance industry has been exposed to high levels of longevity risk born from the mismatch between realized mortality trends and anticipated forecast. Annuity providers are exposed to extended periods of annuity payments. There are no immediate instruments in the market to counter the risk directly. This paper aims to develop appropriate instruments for hedging longevity risk and providing an insight on how existing products can be tailor-made to effectively immunize portfolios consisting of life insurance using a cointegration vector error correction model with regime-switching (RS-VECM), which enables both short-term fluctuations, through the autoregressive structure [AR(1)] and long-run equilibria using a cointegration relationship. The authors also develop synthetic products that can be used to effectively hedge longevity risk faced by life insurance and annuity providers who actively hold portfolios of life insurance products. Models are derived using South African data. The authors also derive closed-form expressions for hedge ratios associated with synthetic products written on life insurance contracts as this will provide a natural way of immunizing the associated portfolios. The authors further show how to address the current liquidity challenges in the longevity market by devising longevity swaps and develop pricing and hedging algorithms for longevity-linked securities. The use of a cointergrating relationship improves the model fitting process, as all the VECMs and RS-VECMs yield greater criteria values than their vector autoregressive model (VAR) and regime-switching vector autoregressive model (RS-VAR) counterpart’s, even though there are accruing parameters involved.

Design/methodology/approach

The market model adopted from Ngai and Sherris (2011) is a cointegration RS-VECM for this enables both short-term fluctuations, through the AR(1) and long-run equilibria using a cointegration relationship (Johansen, 1988, 1995a, 1995b), with a heteroskedasticity through the use of regime-switching. The RS-VECM is seen to have the best fit for Australian data under various model selection criteria by Sherris and Zhang (2009). Harris (1997) (Sajjad et al., 2008) also fits a regime-switching VAR model using Australian (UK and US) data to four key macroeconomic variables (market stock indices), showing that regime-switching is a significant improvement over autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) processes in the account for volatility, evidence similar to that of Sherris and Zhang (2009) in the case of Exponential Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ERCH). Ngai and Sherris (2011) and Sherris and Zhang (2009) also fit a VAR model to Australian data with simultaneous regime-switching across many economic and financial series.

Findings

The authors develop a longevity swap using nighttime data instead of usual income measures as it yields statistically accurate results. The authors also develop longevity derivatives and annuities including variable annuities with guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB) and inflation-indexed annuities. Improved market and mortality models are developed and estimated using South African data to model the underlying risks. Macroeconomic variables dependence is modeled using a cointegrating VECM as used in Ngai and Sherris (2011), which enables both short-run dependence and long-run equilibrium. Longevity swaps provide protection against longevity risk and benefit the most from hedging longevity risk. Longevity bonds are also effective as a hedging instrument in life annuities. The cost of hedging, as reflected in the price of longevity risk, has a statistically significant effect on the effectiveness of hedging options.

Research limitations/implications

This study relied on secondary data partly reported by independent institutions and the government, which may be biased because of smoothening, interpolation or extrapolation processes.

Practical implications

An examination of South Africa’s mortality based on industry experience in comparison to population mortality would demand confirmation of the analysis in this paper based on Belgian data as well as other less developed economies. This study shows that to provide inflation-indexed life annuities, there is a need for an active market for hedging inflation in South Africa. This would demand the South African Government through the help of Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) to issue inflation-indexed securities which will help annuities and insurance providers immunize their portfolios from longevity risk.

Social implications

In South Africa, there is an infant market for inflation hedging and no market for longevity swaps. The effect of not being able to hedge inflation is guaranteed, and longevity swaps in annuity products is revealed to be useful and significant, particularly using developing or emerging economies as a laboratory. This study has shown that government issuance or allowing issuance, of longevity swaps, can enable insurers to manage longevity risk. If the South African Government, through ASSA, is to develop a projected mortality reference index for South Africa, this would allow the development of mortality-linked securities and longevity swaps which ultimately maximize the social welfare of life assurance policy holders.

Originality/value

The paper proposes longevity swaps and static hedging because they are simple, less costly and practical with feasible applications to the South African market, an economy of over 50 million people. As the market for MLS develops further, dynamic hedging should become possible.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 21 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2012

Nadine Gatzert and Hannah Wesker

Systematic mortality risk, i.e. the risk of unexpected changes in mortality and survival rates, can substantially impact a life insurers' risk and solvency situation. By using the…

1365

Abstract

Purpose

Systematic mortality risk, i.e. the risk of unexpected changes in mortality and survival rates, can substantially impact a life insurers' risk and solvency situation. By using the “natural hedge” between life insurance and annuities, insurance companies have an effective tool for reducing their net‐exposure. The purpose of this paper is to analyze this risk management tool and to quantify its effectiveness in hedging against changes in mortality with respect to default risk measures.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve this goal, the paper models the insurance company as a whole and takes into account the interaction between assets and liabilities. Systematic mortality risk is considered in two ways. First, systematic mortality risk is modeled using scenario analyses and, second, empirically observed changes in mortality rates for the last 10‐15 years are used.

Findings

The paper demonstrates that the consideration of both the asset and liability side is vital to obtain deeper insight into the impact of natural hedging on an insurer's risk situation and shows how to reach a desired safety level while simultaneously immunizing the portfolio against changes in mortality rates.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the literature by considering the insurance company as a whole in a multi‐period setting and taking into account both, assets and liabilities, as well as their interaction. Furthermore, the paper shows how to obtain a desired safety level while simultaneously immunizing a portfolio against changes in default risk.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 13 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 January 2017

Valeria D’Amato, Mariarosaria Coppola, Susanna Levantesi, Massimiliano Menzietti and Maria Russolillo

The improvements of longevity are intensifying the need for capital markets to be used to manage and transfer the risk through longevity-linked securities. Nevertheless, the…

Abstract

Purpose

The improvements of longevity are intensifying the need for capital markets to be used to manage and transfer the risk through longevity-linked securities. Nevertheless, the difference between the reference population of the hedging instrument and the population of members of a pension plan, or the beneficiaries of an annuity portfolio, determines a significant heterogeneity causing the so-called basis risk. In particular, it is shown that if insurers use financial instruments based on national indices to hedge longevity risk, this hedge can become imperfect. For this reason, it is fundamental to arrange a model allowing to quantify the basis risk for minimising it through a correct calibration of the hedging instrument.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper provides a framework for measuring the basis risk impact on the. To this aim, we propose a model that measures the population basis risk involved in a longevity hedge, in the functional data model setting. hedging strategies.

Findings

The innovative contribution of the paper occurs in two key points: the modelling of mortality and the hedging strategy. Regarding the first point, the paper proposes a functional demographic model framework (FDMF) for capturing the basis risk. The FDMF model generally designed for single population combines functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics. It allows to capture the variability of the mortality trend, by separating out the effects of several orthogonal components. The novelty is to set the FDMF for modelling the mortality of the two populations, the hedging and the exposed one. Regarding the second point, the basic idea is to calibrate the hedging strategy determining a suitable mixture of q-forwards linked to mortality rates to maximise the degree of longevity risk reduction. This calibration is based on the key q-duration intended as a measure allowing to estimate the price sensitivity of the annuity portfolio to the changes in the underlying mortality curve.

Originality/value

The novelty lies in linking the shift in the mortality curve to the standard deviation of the historical mortality rates of the exposed population. This choice has been determined by the observation that the shock in a mortality rate is age dependent. The main advantage of the presented framework is its strong versatility, being the functional demographic setting a generalisation of the Lee-Carter model commonly used in mortality forecasting, it allows to adapt to different demographic scenarios. In the next developments, we set out to compare other common factor models to assess the most effective longevity hedge. Moreover, the parsimony for considering together two trajectories of the populations under consideration and the convergence of long-term forecast are important aspects of our approach.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 2 August 2021

Claudia E. Henninger

Swapping as part of collaborative consumption is not a new phenomenon per se, but might gain increased importance after the recent COVID-19 pandemic that has seen a shift in…

Abstract

Swapping as part of collaborative consumption is not a new phenomenon per se, but might gain increased importance after the recent COVID-19 pandemic that has seen a shift in consumer attitudes, consumption, and disposal behaviour. Swapping as one form of collaborative consumption, however, is currently neither mainstream nor target towards the general population, but rather a niche population (secondhand consumers). With sustainable issues (environmental, economic, and social) remaining a key concern, and consumers seeking to dispose of their garments, swapping might become an increasingly attractive alternative, yet currently it may not be communicated as such. This chapter explores the potential of creative marketing communications to enhance the uptake of swapping in order to overcome a key challenge in the industry: fashion waste.

Details

Creativity and Marketing: The Fuel for Success
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80071-330-7

Keywords

1 – 10 of 141