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1 – 10 of over 25000Naiming Xie, Ruizhi Wang and Nanlei Chen
This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development.
Design/methodology/approach
China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy.
Findings
Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously.
Practical implications
The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance.
Originality/value
The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.
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Tongzheng Pu, Chongxing Huang, Haimo Zhang, Jingjing Yang and Ming Huang
Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory…
Abstract
Purpose
Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory expertise and neural network technology can bring a fresh perspective to international migration forecasting research.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes a conditional generative adversarial neural network model incorporating the migration knowledge – conditional generative adversarial network (MK-CGAN). By using the migration knowledge to design the parameters, MK-CGAN can effectively address the limited data problem, thereby enhancing the accuracy of migration forecasts.
Findings
The model was tested by forecasting migration flows between different countries and had good generalizability and validity. The results are robust as the proposed solutions can achieve lesser mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and R2 values, reaching 0.9855 compared to long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit, generative adversarial network (GAN) and the traditional gravity model.
Originality/value
This study is significant because it demonstrates a highly effective technique for predicting international migration using conditional GANs. By incorporating migration knowledge into our models, we can achieve prediction accuracy, gaining valuable insights into the differences between various model characteristics. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to enhance our understanding of these differences and provide clear and concise explanations for our model predictions. The results demonstrated the theoretical significance and practical value of the MK-CGAN model in predicting international migration.
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Todd E. Clark and Michael W. McCracken
This article surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point and density forecasts in the context of forecasts made by vector autoregressions. Specific emphasis is placed…
Abstract
This article surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point and density forecasts in the context of forecasts made by vector autoregressions. Specific emphasis is placed on highlighting those parts of the existing literature that are applicable to direct multistep forecasts and those parts that are applicable to iterated multistep forecasts. This literature includes advancements in the evaluation of forecasts in population (based on true, unknown model coefficients) and the evaluation of forecasts in the finite sample (based on estimated model coefficients). The article then examines in Monte Carlo experiments the finite-sample properties of some tests of equal forecast accuracy, focusing on the comparison of VAR forecasts to AR forecasts. These experiments show the tests to behave as should be expected given the theory. For example, using critical values obtained by bootstrap methods, tests of equal accuracy in population have empirical size about equal to nominal size.
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Feng Yang, Yuan Yang and Zhimin Huang
As an important carrier of sustainable economy and social development, population is the foundation of the whole society. Scientific predictions of future population growth will…
Abstract
As an important carrier of sustainable economy and social development, population is the foundation of the whole society. Scientific predictions of future population growth will bring great reference to macro-economic and social planning. For China, as a country of the biggest population, the research on its population policy is worthwhile.
Previous literatures on population growth prediction are generally based on time-series analysis. However, the new two-child policy in China provides us an opportunity to predict the population growth from the perspective of the welfare efficiency, since each family is able to determine whether to have the second child on account of the family’s utility. The welfare efficiency is calculated through the database of newborn babies, disposable income per capita, living resource per capita, and health expenditure pre capital. These are the main factors by which each family decides whether to bear additional babies. In this chapter, we perform the micro-economic analysis on a new policy and propose a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to predict the population growth. Under the condition of policy adjustment, we successfully predict the population growth with this method. We also propose some suggestions concerning the implementation of the new policy.
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Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan
The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable?
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable?
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology/approach is to forecast KSA’s population with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits a pth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson-Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter.
Findings
Spectral analysis projections of Saudi age groups are more optimistic than the Bayesian probabilistic model sponsored by the United Nations Population Division: Saudi Arabia will not get older as fast as projected by the United Nations model. The KSA’s pension system will stay sustainable based on spectral analysis, whereas it will not based on the U.N. model.
Originality/value
Spectral analysis will provide better insight and understanding of population dynamics for Saudi government policymakers, as well as economic, health and pension planners.
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Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the years the European Muslim population will be majority among 30 European countries.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the years the European Muslim population will be majority among 30 European countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology/approach is to forecast the population of 30 European countries with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits a pth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson–Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter. Three scenarios are considered: the zero-migration scenario where the authors assume that the Muslim population has a higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern; a 2017 migration scenario: to the Muslim population obtained in the zero-migration scenario, the authors add a continuous flow of migrants every year based on year 2017; the mid-point migration scenario is obtained by averaging the data of the two previous scenarios.
Findings
Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years.
Originality/value
The growing Muslim population will change the face of Europe socially, politically and economically. This paper will provide a better insight and understanding of Muslim population dynamics to European governments, policymakers, as well as social and economic planners.
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Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan
The purpose of the paper is to forecast economic indicators of the Saudi economy in the context of low oil prices which have taken a toll on the Saudi oil-dependent economy…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the paper is to forecast economic indicators of the Saudi economy in the context of low oil prices which have taken a toll on the Saudi oil-dependent economy between 2014 and 2017. Trades and investments have plummeted, leading to significant budget deficits. In response, the government unveiled a plan called Saudi Vision 2030 in 2016 which has triggered structural economic reforms leading to an unprecedented strategy of transition from an oil-driven economy to a modern market economy.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper forecasts with spectral analysis economic indicators of the Saudi economy up to 2030 to provide a clearer picture of the future economy assuming that the effects of recent reforms have not yet been traced by most of the economic indicators.
Findings
2018–2030 forecasts are all bearish except West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price expected to average $64.40 during the period 2019–2030. Two additional exceptions are the Saudi population that should grow to 40 million in 2030 and the swelling gross domestic product (GDP) generated by the non-oil sector resulting from bold actions of the Saudi government who is willing to become less dependent on revenues generated by the oil sector.
Research limitations/implications
Government policymakers, economists and investors would have with spectral forecasts better insight and understanding of the Saudi economy dynamics at the early stage of major economic reforms implemented in the country. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has brutally hurt the Saudi economy following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The impact on the Saudi economy will depend on the optimal response brought by its government.
Social implications
Saudi Vision 2030 plan has already triggered a deep transformation of the Saudi society that is reviewed in this paper.
Originality/value
The forecast of Saudi economic indicators is a timely topic considering the challenges facing the economy and reforms being undertaken. Applying an original forecasting technique to economic indicators adds to the originality of the paper.
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Hong Gao, Tianxiang Yao and Xiaoru Kang
The purpose of this paper is to predict the population of Anhui province. The authors analyze the trend of the main demographic indicators.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to predict the population of Anhui province. The authors analyze the trend of the main demographic indicators.
Design/methodology/approach
On the basis of the main methods of statistics, this paper studies the tendency of the population of Anhui province. It mainly analyzes the sex structure and the age structure of the current population. Based on the GM(1,1) model, this paper forecasts the total population, the population sex structure, and the population age structure of Anhui province in the next ten years.
Findings
The results show that the total population was controlled well, but there have been many problems of the population structure, such as the aging population, high sex ratio, heavy social dependency burden, and the declining labor force.
Social implications
This paper forecasts the main indexes of the population of Anhui province and provides policy recommendations for the government and the relevant departments.
Originality/value
This paper utilizes data analysis method and the grey forecasting model to study the tendency of the population problems in Anhui province.
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Karen M. Gibler and J. Sherwood Clements
Expectations of an aging population increases the need for accurate models and reliable forecasts of housing demand in the later stages of life. This paper aims to examine whether…
Abstract
Purpose
Expectations of an aging population increases the need for accurate models and reliable forecasts of housing demand in the later stages of life. This paper aims to examine whether the only published forecasting model predicts the actual movement of older Americans into retirement housing.
Design/methodology/approach
A logistic regression model is used to test which older movers chose retirement housing using data from the 2002 and 2004 Health and Retirement Survey.
Findings
Age is found to have a positive relationship with the choice to move into retirement housing, but the other socioeconomic variables are not significant and the model is not robust.
Research limitations/implications
More investigation is necessary to identify the variables that will provide a reliable estimate of those choosing retirement housing. Segmented by housing type may be necessary rather than estimating total retirement housing demand.
Originality/value
The paper tests whether a model previously used to forecast senior housing demand actually predicts housing choice. It demonstrates that additional research is needed to develop models that can more accurately estimate demand in this growing segment of the housing market in aging countries.
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Weiliang Zhang, Sifeng Liu, Lianyi Liu, R.M. Kapila Tharanga Rathnayaka, Naiming Xie and Junliang Du
China's population aging is gradually deepening and needs to be actively addressed. The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel model for analyzing the population aging.
Abstract
Purpose
China's population aging is gradually deepening and needs to be actively addressed. The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel model for analyzing the population aging.
Design/methodology/approach
To analyze the aging status of a region, this study has considered three major indicators: total population, aged population and the proportion of the aged population. Additionally, the authors have developed a novel grey population prediction model that incorporates the fractional-order accumulation operator and Gompertz model (GM). By combining these techniques, the authors' model provides a comprehensive and accurate prediction of population aging trends in Jiangsu Province. This research methodology has the potential to contribute to the development of effective policy solutions to address the challenges posed by the population aging.
Findings
The fractional-order discrete grey GM is suitable for predicting the aging population and has good performance. The population aging of Jiangsu Province will continue to deepen in the next few years.
Practical implications
The proposed model can be used to predict and analyze aging differences in Jiangsu Province. Based on the prediction and analysis results, identified some corresponding countermeasures are suggested to address the challenges of Jiangsu's future aging problem.
Originality/value
The fractional-order discrete grey GM is firstly proposed in this paper and this model is a novel grey population prediction model with good performance.
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