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This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

The purpose of this study is to explore the principal research query and whether strategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aims at crafting future readiness.

With a focus on entrepreneurial firms working in the alternative energy segment in the Indian context, the intent is to examine the deployment of strategic foresight by incumbent firms and their entrepreneurial journey. The authors have adopted the approach of Eisenhardt for this research. The area of interest for the authors entailing strategic foresight by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aligns with defining features reflecting the aim of Eisenhardt method for this exploratory research coupled with constructivism.

While the future scenarios in the energy sector have to be necessarily multiple, their alignment with different geographic, economic, demographic and political outlooks shall be defined by the pathways niched through the deployment of strategic foresight for arriving at those scenarios.

Strategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms has the potential to create future readiness through self-reliant sustainable economic value chains for local populace, thus propagating holistic development in remote regions.

This paper attempts to knit together the domains of strategic foresight, entrepreneurial firms and energy transition through case research and present the future thinking deployed for navigation in uncharted pathways by capturing the foresight component of these incumbent firms chosen through careful case selection. The narrative has been strengthened by the varied interviews across participants and the observations made by the authors during the research work.

This study aims to predict artificial intelligence (AI) technology development and the impact of AI utilization activity on companies, to identify AI strategies dealing with the broad innovation activity of AI, and to construct the strategic decision-making framework of AI strategies for a small- and medium-sized enterprise (hereafter SME), to improve strategic decision-making practices of AI strategy in SMEs.

This study used the multiple methods on the design of two data collection stages. The first stage is an expertise-based approach. It organized the three groups of expert panels and conducted the Delphi survey on them in combination with the brainstorming of technology, innovation and strategy in the fourth industrial revolution. The second stage is in the complement approach of expertise-based results. It used the literature review to involve the analysis of academic and practical papers, reports and audio materials relating to technology development, innovation types and strategies of AI. Additionally, it organized the four semi-structured interviews. Finally, this study used the mind-map and decision tree to conduct each analysis and synthesize each analytical result.

This study identifies the precondition and four paths of AI technological development classifying into specialized AI, AI convergence with other technologies, general AI and AI control methods. It captures the impact of non- and technological innovation through AI on companies. Second, it identifies and classifies the six types of AI strategy: the bystander, capability-building, capability-holding, management-enhancing, market-enhancing and new-market-creating strategy. By using the decision tree, it constructs the strategic decision-making framework containing six AI strategies. Actionable points, strategic priorities and relevant instruments are suggested.

The strategic decision-making framework covering from AI technology development to utilization in a SME can help understand the strategic behaviours in SMEs. The typology of six AI strategies implies the broad innovation behaviours in SMEs. It can lead to further research to understand the pattern of strategic and innovation behaviour on AI.

This practical study can help executives, managers and engineers in SMEs to develop their strategic practices through the strategic decision framework and six AI strategies.

This practical study elicits the six types of AI strategy and constructs the strategic decision-making framework of six AI strategies from AI technology development to utilization. It can contribute to improving the practices of strategic decision-making in SMEs.

This systematic literature review investigates the contribution of design thinking (DT) as a process and tool to drive innovation in a sustainable built environment (SBE) and develops a new model for sustainability research integrating DT and future thinking approaches toward achieving a unified DT and foresight notion for future research and applications.

This review was based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Open-access English articles published between 2000 and 2022 identified using the EBSCOhost, Emerald Insight, DOJA, JSTOR, Scopus and Taylor and Francis database searches were reviewed. The review framework deploys a previously proposed modified Ansoff matrix with an integrated innovation matrix to identify and analyze the challenges and opportunities for innovation growth in SBE. Additionally, a citation analysis was conducted to explore the impact of DT for innovation in SBE, and a proposed framework based on design by drawing on foresight theory was developed.

Research on DT for innovation in SBE faces the challenge of unanticipated impacts. According to the average number of citations per document, innovation associated with new solutions within a new context seems to become highly influential. Additionally, research gaps exist in the integration of foresight and DT into sustainability research to identify new contexts and solutions to SBE. A model of foresight design thinking (FDT) is proposed to guide future research and support the practical application of DT in sustainability.

This analysis was limited by the selection criteria as only certain keywords were used and English-only articles were selected. Future research should consider the use of DT for innovation in SBE using various important keywords, which would improve research findings and expand the contribution of DT to SBE.

The FDT model offers a new holistic framework for the iterative process of reframing and reperception, focusing on divergent and convergent thinking with the goal of contributing to SBE practices.

The integrated framework of DT and foresight can contribute to the study and development of sustainable innovation and a strategic shift toward a sustainable society.

The integration of DT, foresight and sustainability can broaden the horizons of sustainability research by systematically addressing future challenges related to SBE, which can be translated into feasible and innovative solutions. Thus, the FDT model complements the application of DT in sustainable innovation in this research field.

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

Although the significance of technological progress in economic development is well-established in theory and policy, it has remained challenging to agree upon shared priorities for strategies and policies. This paper aims to develop a model of how policymakers can develop effective and easy to communicate strategies for science, technology and economic development.

By integrating insights from economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature, a replicable research framework for analysing the opportunities and challenges of technological revolutions for small catching-up countries is developed. The authors highlight key lessons from piloting this framework for informing the strategy and policies for bioeconomy in Estonia towards 2030–2050.

The integration of economic complexity research with traditional foresight methods establishes a solid analytical basis for a data-driven analysis of the opportunities for industrial upgrading. The increase in the importance of regional alliances in the global economy calls for further advancement of the analytical toolbox. Integration of complexity, global value chains and export potential assessment approaches offers valuable direction for further research, as it enables discussion of the opportunities of moving towards more knowledge-intensive economic activities along with the opportunities for winning international market share.

The research merges insights from the economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature in a novel way and illustrates the applicability and priority-setting in a real-life setting.

The purpose of this study is to examine the dimensions of strategic intent (SI; see Appendix 1) according to the Hamel and Prahalad model as a building for the future, relying on today’s knowledge-based and proactive strategic directions of management as long-term and deep-perspective creative directions, objective vision and rational analysis, integrative in work, survival structure and comprehensiveness in perception.

The quantitative approach was used based on research, detection and proof, as data were collected from leaders amounting to 70 respondents and analyzed in the SPSS program and ant colony optimization (see Appendix 1) algorithm and interpretation of the results.

It was found that the SI dimensions are poorly available due to problems related to foresight, capabilities and the strategic structure that represents the head of strategic objectives.

The empirical evaluation view of the study is valuable for leaders to draw a future strategy of advantage for organizations in developing countries to enrich their core capabilities by activating the SI dimensions.

It stems from a vital issue related to strategic dimensions aimed at a better future for strategic executive work, especially after the crisis that led to a significant decline in the level of performance of organizations.

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

Future is rarely explicitly addressed or problematized in business network research. This study aims to examine the possibilities of developing a business actor’s future orientation to network studies and imports ideas and concepts from futures research to support the development.

The study is conceptual and interdisciplinary. The authors critically analyze how extant studies grounded in the sensemaking view and process research approach integrate future time and how theoretical myopia hinders the adoption of a future orientation.

The prevailing future perspective is restricted to managers’ perceptions and actions at present, ignoring the anticipation and exploration of alternative longer-term futures. Future time is generally conceived as embedded in managers’ cognitive processes or is seen as part of the ongoing interaction, where the time horizon to the future is not noticed or is at best short.

To enable a forward-looking perspective, researchers should move the focus from expectation building in business interaction to purposeful preparation of alternative future(s) and from the view of seeing future as enacted in the present to envisioning of both near-term and more distant futures.

This study addresses the growing need of business actors to anticipate future developments in the rapidly changing market conditions and to innovate and change business practices to save the planet for future generations.

This study elaborates on actors’ future orientation to business markets and networks, proposes the integration of network research concepts with concepts from futures studies and poses new types of research questions for future research.