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This article examines the future of e‐money as a payment instrument and some of the microeconomic policy issues it will raise. The paper is in two parts. This first part focuses on the various forms which electronic money is likely to take in the future, and considers key technological and economic factors that will shape its evolution. Part 2, to be published in the next issue of foresight, examines some of the major regulatory and institutional issues that are likely to have a bearing on the adoption of e‐money, notably concerns related to the regulation of payment systems, security, privacy and consumer protection.

Many studies of corruption and money laundering (ML) have been conducted throughout the previous few decades. The impact of corruption and ML on economic growth, banking performance and corporate financial performance has been the focus of various research. The present study aims to investigate the relationship between ML, corruption and inflation.

This study used the panel data of five South Asian countries from 2013 to 2019 (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal). Further, fixed effect (FE) and random effect (RE) econometric regression models are used to analyze the data. Additionally, generalized methods of moment (GMM) technique is used to check the results robustness.

This study discovered that corruption and ML have a significant and positive link with inflation in five South Asian nations using the corruption perception index and the anti-money laundering (AML) index.

This research advises that government authorities strengthen anti-corruption and AML laws enforcement.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that explains the linkage between corruption, ML and inflation in five south Asian nations.

This paper aims to analyse the economics of financing banking supervision and attempts to respond to two questions: What are the most common financing practices? Can the differences in current financing practices be explained by country‐specific factors, using a path‐dependence approach?

The paper performs an empirical analysis that identifies the determinants of the financing structure of banks' prudential supervision using a sample of 90 banking supervisors (central banks and financial authorities).

The paper concludes that supervisors in central banks are more likely to be publicly funded, while financial authorities are more likely to be funded via a levy on the regulated banks. The financing rule is also explained by the structure of the financial systems. Public funding is more likely in bank‐oriented structures. Finally, the geographical factor is also significant: European bank supervisors are more oriented towards the private funding regime.

In general, the paper does not find evidence of the role of the political factor, the size of the economy, the level of development and the legal tradition.

The paper analyses the financial governance of banking supervision in a sample of 90 countries world‐wide. The empirical analysis focuses on the financing rules and identifies factors that explain the differences between supervisory authorities.

Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic changes, the issue of inflation (INF) has also been found to be related to fiscal policy decisions of the government. The purpose of this study is to investigate the inflationary tendencies in India particularly from the fiscal point of view. The study also examines the influence of other potential determinants such as output growth rate, interest rate, trade-openness (TO) and oil price inflation (OPI).

To examine the dynamic nature of association between fiscal deficit and inflation, the study applies the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test and Breitung and Candelon (2006) test to investigate the nature of causality in time and frequency domain frameworks. In addition, to scrutinize the possibility of a long-run association, that too from an asymmetric point of view, the study applies a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag model (NARDL) given by Shin et al. (2014). Finally, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to trace the traverse between disequilibrium position of short-run and subsequent long-run equilibrium of the system.

The authors found a unidirectional causality from fiscal deficit to inflation in case of time domain analysis and no feedback causality is reported. However, in case of frequency domain design, causality from fiscal deficit to inflation is found at low frequencies only, i.e. no short-run causality is established and hence dynamic nature of the relationship between the two variables is vindicated. Using NARDL model, the results document the existence of an asymmetric long-run direct association between fiscal deficit and inflation. However, an increase in deficit is found to be more inflationary and a decrease affects the inflation with a lower magnitude. The asymmetric impact of fiscal deficit on inflation can be explained through the existence of liquidity constraints, consumption-investment downward inflexibility and the downward price stickiness. Contractionary monetary policy action is found to be more effective than an expansionary one, signifying the asymmetric influence of monetary policy actions on the inflation of India. Similarly, in a supply-constrained economy with downward price rigidity, the authors found an asymmetric impact of output growth and output decline on inflation. As regard to the trade-openness, although an asymmetry is reported, the signs refute the validation of Romer (1993) hypothesis. Finally, the impact of oil price inflation on the inflationary pressures is according to theory but the coefficients are devoid of statistical significance.

These results indicate some important policy recommendations. Fiscal consolidation strategy should be executed in an appreciable manner to achieve the sound fiscal health and lower INF. The disciplined fiscal strategy would also be imperative for an effective monetary policy. Monetary authorities should possess noticeable credibility to manage the macroeconomic system and policy stances should be implemented according to requirements of the economy. Growth in output should be encouraged to have two-fold benefits to the economy – reducing INF on the one hand and fiscal deficits on the other.

The study contributes to the existing literature in the following ways. First, taking note of dynamic nature of the relationship between these two variables, the study examined the deficit INF nexus in a dynamic and asymmetric framework. The novelty of the study is ensured by the very nature of it is the first study in case of India to identify the fiscal INF in an asymmetric configuration. The authors applied a NARDL model, given by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the existence of any cointegrating relationship in an asymmetric paradigm. Second, the nature of causality between fiscal deficit and INF has been examined in a time domain and FD framework to portray precisely the casual interactions between these two variables in the short-run and long run. The study will, therefore, enrich the existing literature along the asymmetric lines.

The Haitian gourde is one of the most curious and exotic currencies of the world. On it is printed the striking statement: “The banknote, in conformity with the Constitution of the . Republic of Haiti, is payable to the bearer in legal money of the United States of America at the rate of five gourdes for one dollar.” Amazingly, the gourde stands exactly where it was set by the Convention of April 12, 1919 at five gourdes per dollar. This fixity in the exchange rate is a remarkable achievement of an otherwise totally squalid economy record, which has been made very much due to the total convertibility of gourdes into dollars and their easy co‐existence and use in Haiti. Such a feat runs counter to early suggestions in the newly developing currency substitution literature that currency competition promotes instability in rates. A very different story emerges due west on the largest English‐speaking island in the Caribbean, Jamaica, where monetary turbulence has been the rule since 1978. The currency there was initially backed 50 percent by pounds sterling when the Bank of Jamaica began operation in May 1961, but switched to a dollar peg in January 1973 at $1,10 US, a rate maintained through 1977. After the economic problems of 1976–77, the Jamaican dollar was devalued 15½ percent in January 1978 and, under the strong advice of the International Monetary Fund, a further 32 percent in May 1978. Following was a “crawling peg” devaluation of 1½ percent per month until October 1978, then 1 percent a month until May 1979, when the current dollar peg of 56.13 cents per Jamaican dollar was established. This dramatic decline in the currency was caused in part by expansionary monetary policies of the Bank of Jamaica monetizing budget deficits, and in part by the decline in tourism, the fall in bauxite and steel output, and the oil shocks Jamaica experienced. (From 1974 to 1979, the government budget deficit went from 168 million Jamaican dollars (J$) to 551 mill J$ with a peak of 625 million in 1978, holdings of government debt by the central bank from 72 to 898 mill J$, and net foreign assets or reserves of the central bank plunged from 141 to minus 778 mill J$ (Source: International Financial Statistics, IMF 1980 Yearbook and IFS January 1981 issue).) The International Monetary Fund set specific performance criteria such as devaluation and ceilings on government budget deficits for successive draws on a substantial loan of 351 million U.S. dollars or 360 percent of Jamaica's quota at the end of 1979.

The paper analyses the challenges of globalization for exchange rate and monetary policy.

It first deals with the implications of globalization for the choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime. Then it discusses different strategic aspects of monetary policy in the light of globalization. Finally, it examines the effect of globalization on inflation and the implications of this for the focus on monetary policy.

The main challenge of globalization for exchange rate policy refers to the choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime. Exchange rate policy is constrained by the financial instability tendency effect of globalization insofar as intermediate exchange rate regimes tend to be very unstable. However, globalization may also create the desire to change the focus of monetary policy. Globalization is sometimes argued to reduce inflationary pressures and therefore to “ease” the job of central banks. However, there are caveats with this conclusion or arguments that are discussed in this paper.

The paper gives an innovative overview of the various challenges of globalization for monetary policy.

This chapter attempts to analyze mainly the interactions between the implementation of inflation targeting (IT) policy and performance in the conduct of economic policies (fiscal and exchange rate) in emerging countries. More precisely, empirical studies conducted in this chapter aim to apprehend the feedback effect of this strategy of monetary policy on the budget deficit and volatility of exchange rate performance. This said, we consider the institutional framework as endogenous to IT and analyze the response of authorities to the adoption of this monetary regime. To do this, the retained methodological path in this chapter is an empirical way, based on the econometrics of panel data. First, our contribution to the existing literature is to evaluate the time-varying treatment effect of IT’s adoption on the budget deficit of emerging inflation targeters, using the propensity score matching approach. Our empirical analysis, conducted on a sample of 34 economies (13 IT and 21 non-IT economies) for the period from 1990 to 2010, show a significant impact of IT on the reduction of budget deficit in emerging countries having adopted this monetary policy framework. Therefore, we can say that the emerging government can benefit ex post and gradually from a decline in their public deficits. Retaining the same econometric approach and sample, we tried secondly to empirically examine whether the adoption of IT in emerging inflation targeters has been effectively translated by an increase in the nominal effective exchange rate volatility compared to non-IT countries. Our results show that this effect is decreasing and that this volatility is becoming less important after the shift to this monetary regime. We might suggest that this indirect and occasional intervention in the foreign exchange market can be made by fear of inflation rather than by fear of floating hence in most emerging countries that have adopted the IT strategy. Finally, we can say that our conclusions corroborate the literature of disciplining effects of IT regime on fiscal policy performance as well as the two controversial effects of IT on the nominal effective exchange rate volatility.

This chapter reviews developments concerning central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). It introduces, analyzes, and discusses the potential implications of CBDCs on the existing cryptoassets landscape. The chapter also provides an overview of the different approaches to adopting and implementing this new form of money. Additionally, it compares traditional cryptocurrencies, privately issued stablecoins, fiat currencies, and CBDCs. Although vastly divergent opinions exist on digital money’s purpose, benefits, and use cases, CBDCs can provide opportunities for innovation and experimentation at a central bank and systemic level. CBDCs may pave the way for democratizing access to unbundled financial services while rethinking the overall purpose of money, monetary systems, and global business.