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1 – 10 of 353Venkataramanaiah Malepati, Madhavi Latha Challa and Siva Nageswara Rao Kolusu
This study is intended to investigate the volatility patterns in Bombay Stock Exchange Limited Sensitivity Index (BSE Sensex) based on time series data collected for 10 years…
Abstract
This study is intended to investigate the volatility patterns in Bombay Stock Exchange Limited Sensitivity Index (BSE Sensex) based on time series data collected for 10 years period of time. To reach out the predefined objectives of the study, the authors have employed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models. The study revealed that the presence of heteroscedasticiy is found in BSE Sensex. Further, the model produced highly accurate results when the researchers compared the estimated results from actual. Furthermore, the volatility of BSE Sensex has shown the features of clustering and significant time varying. Moreover, the model has indicated that there is a positive correlation between daily stock returns and the BSE Sensex volatility.
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Bhaskar Bagchi, Dhrubaranjan Dandapat and Susmita Chatterjee
Sohil Idnani, Masudul Hasan Adil, Hoshiar Mal and Ashutosh Kolte
This paper aims to understand the effect of a change in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of India and the USA on investors' sentiment in the Indian context, consisting of Sensex…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to understand the effect of a change in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of India and the USA on investors' sentiment in the Indian context, consisting of Sensex returns and volatility index (Vix).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ bounds testing approach to cointegration to capture the short-and long-run effects of EPU on investors' sentiment, along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions to check the effect of a shock on Sensex and Vix.
Findings
The study concludes the existence of a cointegrating relationship for both models, that is, Vix and Sensex. In the long-run, changes in EPU_India affect Vix and Sensex positively and negatively, respectively. On the other hand, EPU_USA affects Vix and Sensex positively. Furthermore, Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration with endogenous structural break reveals a long-run cointegrating relationship for both models.
Research limitations/implications
The effect of EPUs on investors' sentiment reveals that when there is an uncertain event that adversely affects the stock prices, investors should not make haste to take a decision as the impact on stock prices perturbation might be temporary. Therefore, one should persevere for the dip in prices to hit the desired target.
Originality/value
Various studies look at the effect of cross-country EPU on the home country, However, there is no such study in the Indian context. The present study examines the impact of India's EPU on investors' sentiments after controlling the USA's EPU, one of India's largest trading partners and a key determinant of global economic policy.
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Nikhil Yadav, Priyanka Tandon, Ravindra Tripathi and Rajesh Kumar Shastri
The purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses the augmented Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of unit root, Johansen cointegration test for estimating the cointegration among the variables. Further, in the case of no cointegration found, the study employed the vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the long-run relationship and the Granger causality/Wald test for short-run relationship. The study also conducted tests for the prerequisites of the model: serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and normality of data.
Findings
The study found that both the variables, crude oil prices and Sensex are integrated of order 1, that is, I (1), and there is no cointegration between them. Further, the results proliferated from the VAR model unfold the marked effect of previous month crude oil prices (lag 1) on the movement of Indian stock market represented by Sensex considered as the benchmark index. Furthermore, VAR–Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results indicated that there is a causal relationship between the crude oil prices and Sensex under the VAR environment. The model does not have any serial correlation and heteroskedasticity indicating toward the unbiased and robust estimates.
Research limitations/implications
The study is conducted till the year 2018, and data for the present period (post-2018) is excluded due to ongoing trade issues between the USA and oil-exporting countries such as Iran. The current COVID-19 outbreak has also put serious issues. Due to limited time and availability of standardized data, researchers have considered Sensex as equity index only, but for more generalized research outcome few other equity indexes could have been taken for study.
Originality/value
The study is completely original in nature and is an extensive study of the relationship between the crude oil price and Indian stock market with reference to causality between the variables.
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Isha Narula, Ankita Dawar and Khushi Sehgal
Introduction: The Stock Exchange is an economic indicator of sustainability in the global market over an extended period. The Indian economy has observed a downfall in foreign…
Abstract
Introduction: The Stock Exchange is an economic indicator of sustainability in the global market over an extended period. The Indian economy has observed a downfall in foreign currency in quarter 2 of 2022, as per the reports of the International Monitory Fund. The central banks of many countries have been facing crises because of a piercing decline in their reserves, which is additionally affecting their sustainable performance. The Indian economy is one of the most potentially sound economies emerging as a global leader, and this study is an attempt to understand the economy’s vulnerability to foreign factors.
Purpose: The research explores the impact of the US Dollar, EURO and Japanese Yen on Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange Index.
Methodology: Four variables have been considered for the conduct of the study: Sensex, Nifty, inflation and foreign exchange. Sensex and Nifty have been taken as dependent variables, while foreign exchange and inflation have been taken as independent variables.
The regression analysis has been performed using Microsoft Excel: The variables used for the study are monthly values from January 2011 to December 2020. The specific period is selected to avoid the impact of COVID-19 on the stock market, avoiding biases in the results.
Findings: All the variables are affecting the performance of each other up to a certain level.
Practical Implication: The research chapter will help the investor understand the relationship between many variables and their impact on the stock market, which will assist them in gaining higher profits.
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Santu Das, Jamini Kanta Pattanayak and Pramod Pathak
The main purpose of this research study is to investigate the impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of the firms constituting the SENSEX under two…
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this research study is to investigate the impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of the firms constituting the SENSEX under two different market conditions – booming followed by recessionary. Analysis of price effect of quarterly earnings announcements during the five-year period prior to trading suspension, which is also characterized by a booming market condition have been made. Similar analysis during the five-year period following the trading suspension and marked by recessionary market condition has also been carried out side by side.
Design/methodology/approach
Event study methodology using daily returns and market model has been used for the purpose of analyzing the quarterly earnings announcement effects on the security prices of the firms. A sign test has also been used along with the event study.
Findings
The study reveals that quarterly earnings announcement does not have statistically significant effect on stock returns during the booming as well as the recessionary market conditions. The impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of firms constituting the SENSEX has been similar for both periods undertaken in the study.
Research limitations/implications
The study has been undertaken using the firms listed in BSE SENSEX. The effect of the quarterly earnings announcement with reference to firms listed in other indices, if covered, may provide different sets of results.
Originality/value
The paper identifies the informational value of quarterly earnings announcement of BSE-SENSEX.
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The world of investing has changed drastically. Investors are willing to invest the companies that give high priority to environmental, social and governance issues (ESG). This…
Abstract
The world of investing has changed drastically. Investors are willing to invest the companies that give high priority to environmental, social and governance issues (ESG). This study delves into the performance of the BSE CARBONEX index in comparison to the BSE 100, BSE Sensex, BSE Energy and BSE Oil & Gas. It seeks to examine the impact of calendar anomalies, particularly focusing on the day-of-the-week effect, on these indices. To accomplish this, daily closing prices of the BSE CARBONEX, BSE 100, BSE Sensex, BSE Energy and BSE Oil & Gas were gathered from the BSE official website. The study period was divided into three segments: the full period, period I (2017–2020) and period II (2020–2022). The study's findings reveal that throughout the full period, period I and period II, BSE Energy exhibited the highest mean daily return compared to the other selected indices. There appears to be a discernible Tuesday effect on the daily average mean returns of BSE CARBONEX, BSE 100, BSE Sensex, BSE Energy and BSE Oil & Gas in both the full sample period and period II. Results from ordinary least squares (OLS) analysis by day indicate a notably high positive and statistically significant daily return on Tuesdays, particularly during the full sample period and period II. Furthermore, the GARCH (1,1) model suggests a significant Tuesday effect on the BSE Energy and BSE Oil & Gas indices.
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Narinder Pal Singh and Sugandha Sharma
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market (GODS)) in the pre-crisis, the crisis and the post-crisis periods in the Indian context.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use Johansen’s cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Auto Regression, VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test, and Granger Causality and Toda Yamamoto modified Granger causality to study long-run relationship and causality.
Findings
Johansen’s cointegration test results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods but not in post-crisis period. VECM results report that none of four models of the variables show long-run causality in the pre-crisis period. During the crisis period, both crude oil and Sensex models show long-run causality. However, in some cases, results indicate short-run causality. The authors find one-way causality from USD and Sensex to crude oil, and from gold and Sensex to USD. Thus, the authors conclude that the relationship among GODS is dynamic across global financial crisis.
Practical implications
The research findings of this study are vital to the large group of stakeholders and participants of gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market in emerging economies like India. The results are useful to importers, exporters, government, policy makers, corporate houses, retail investors, portfolio managers, commodity traders, treasury and fund managers, other commercial traders, etc.
Originality/value
This study is one of its kinds as it investigates the relationship among GODS in India in different sub-periods like before, during and after the global financial crisis of 2008. None of the studies compare phase-wise relationship among GODS in the Indian context. The study contributes to the economic theory and the body of knowledge. It highlights the need to revisit the economic theory to explain the interplay mechanism among GODS.
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