Phase-wise analysis of dynamic relationship among gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market

Narinder Pal Singh (Department of Management, Jagan Institute of Management Studies, Delhi, India)
Sugandha Sharma (Department of Management, Jagan Institute of Management Studies, Delhi, India)

Journal of Advances in Management Research

ISSN: 0972-7981

Publication date: 1 October 2018

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market (GODS)) in the pre-crisis, the crisis and the post-crisis periods in the Indian context.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use Johansen’s cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Auto Regression, VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test, and Granger Causality and Toda Yamamoto modified Granger causality to study long-run relationship and causality.

Findings

Johansen’s cointegration test results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods but not in post-crisis period. VECM results report that none of four models of the variables show long-run causality in the pre-crisis period. During the crisis period, both crude oil and Sensex models show long-run causality. However, in some cases, results indicate short-run causality. The authors find one-way causality from USD and Sensex to crude oil, and from gold and Sensex to USD. Thus, the authors conclude that the relationship among GODS is dynamic across global financial crisis.

Practical implications

The research findings of this study are vital to the large group of stakeholders and participants of gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market in emerging economies like India. The results are useful to importers, exporters, government, policy makers, corporate houses, retail investors, portfolio managers, commodity traders, treasury and fund managers, other commercial traders, etc.

Originality/value

This study is one of its kinds as it investigates the relationship among GODS in India in different sub-periods like before, during and after the global financial crisis of 2008. None of the studies compare phase-wise relationship among GODS in the Indian context. The study contributes to the economic theory and the body of knowledge. It highlights the need to revisit the economic theory to explain the interplay mechanism among GODS.

Keywords

Citation

Singh, N. and Sharma, S. (2018), "Phase-wise analysis of dynamic relationship among gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market", Journal of Advances in Management Research, Vol. 15 No. 4, pp. 480-499. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAMR-12-2017-0124

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Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

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