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This paper aims to ask whether a range of stock market factors contain information that is useful to investors by generating a trading rule based on one-step-ahead forecasts from rolling and recursive regressions.

Using USA data across 3,256 firms, the authors estimate stock returns on a range of factors using both fixed-effects panel and individual regressions. The authors use rolling and recursive approaches to generate time-varying coefficients. Subsequently, the authors generate one-step-ahead forecasts for expected returns, simulate a trading strategy and compare its performance with realised returns.

Results from the panel and individual firm regressions show that an extended Fama-French five-factor model that includes momentum, reversal and quality factors outperform other models. Moreover, rolling based regressions outperform recursive ones in forecasting returns.

The results support notable time-variation in the coefficients on each factor, whilst suggesting that more distant observations, inherent in recursive regressions, do not improve predictive power over more recent observations. Results support the ability of market factors to improve forecast performance over a buy-and-hold strategy.

The results presented here will be of interest to both academics in understanding the dynamics of expected stock returns and investors who seek to improve portfolio performance through highlighting which factors determine stock return movement.

The authors investigate the ability of risk factors to provide accurate forecasts and thus have economic value to investors. The authors conducted a series of moving and expanding window regressions to trace the dynamic movements of the stock returns average response to explanatory factors. The authors use the time-varying parameters to generate one-step-ahead forecasts of expected returns and simulate a trading strategy.

This chapter investigates the predictability of the European monetary policy through the eyes of the professional forecasters from a large investment bank. The analysis is based on forward-looking Actual and Perceived Taylor Rules for the European Central Bank which are estimated in real-time using a newly constructed database for the period April 2000–November 2009. The former policy rule is based on the actual refi rate set by the Governing Council, while the latter is estimated for the bank’s economists using their main point forecast for the upcoming refi rate decision as a dependent variable. The empirical evidence shows that the pattern of the refi rate is broadly well predicted by the professional forecasters even though the latter have foreseen more accurately the increases rather than the policy rate cuts. Second, the results point to an increasing responsiveness of the ECB to macroeconomic fundamentals along the forecast horizon. Third, the rolling window regressions suggest that the estimated coefficients have changed after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in October 2008; the ECB has responded less strongly to macroeconomic fundamentals and the degree of policy inertia has decreased. A sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to applying a recursive window methodology and some of the findings are qualitatively unaltered from using Consensus Economics forecasts in the regressions.

This paper aims to investigate whether Islamic and conventional equity indices offer some alpha. These indices are expected to offer no alpha being value-weighted, passive and unmanaged.

This paper used monthly data from 1996 to 2016 of four Dow Jones (DJ) and one financial times stock exchange (FTSE) Islamic equity indices and five conventional Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) equity indices. This study used a simple ordinary least square (OLS) rolling window regressions to generate the alphas and risk loadings when adjusting for prominent pricing factor models.

The findings from OLS regressions suggest that DJ Islamic indices of Japan, Europe and World generate significant alphas, whereas, MSCI conventional indices of Asia/Pacific, USA and World generate significant alpha when risk-adjusted for pricing factor models. However, in 36-month rolling window regressions, all Islamic indices generate significant alpha and factor loading. The magnitude of alpha and factor loading changes over time.

The finding shows that the Shari’ah-compliant investment fund’s alpha must be adjusted with the respective benchmark index alpha to measure the fund manager’s skill performance quantitatively.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that investigates and compares the Islamic, as well as conventional indices for abnormal returns, which are adjusted for both Fama–French five and q-theory-based four assets pricing risk factors and as a benchmark for Shari’ah-compliant fund’s performance.

The study is intended to find out the relationship between housing prices and the inflow of foreign capital in Pakistan. There is a shortage of housing units due to rising population and rural–urban migration since its inception; on the other hand, there is also a lack of housing finances. The urban sprawl has created the demand for housing units, but the supply of housing has not been increased up to the required level, the major reason is a deficiency of housing finances.

The analysis was carried out from 1973 to 2018, on an annual, quarterly and monthly basis; the structural changes are captured by the Zivot–Andrews unit root test. Gregory–Hansen test is used for cointegration, the combined cointegration also validates the results. In addition, the rolling window is used to capture timely changes between data sets. Finally, wavelet analysis is used to prove volatility.

The rising prices of housing in the country is alarming; Pakistan is a developing country, and it is facing many problems along with a housing shortage. The domestic sources of housing finances are inadequate, so foreign funds are welcomed. The rolling window regression proves that domestic factors along with the foreign capital inflow affect housing prices positively, and the wavelet analysis finds out that foreign direct investment is more volatile than workers’ remittances in financing the housing market.

This is a pioneering study to find out the impact of foreign capital inflows on the housing prices in the economy of Pakistan. The inadequacy of housing finances from domestic sources attracted foreign funds financing this sector. This study has used new techniques like rolling window and wavelet transformation, such techniques have not been used before.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the day-of-the-week effects of Bitcoin (BTC) markets on the exchange level from January 2014 to September 2018.

The in-depth study on the day-of-the-week effects is conducted by using data consisting of Bitcoin prices denominated in 20 fiat currencies from 23 Bitcoin trading exchanges through the method of rolling sample for calendar effect proposed by Zhang et al. (2017).

It is shown by the empirical results that different patterns of the day-of-the-week effects are observed on Bitcoin denominated in various fiat currencies by referring to the price data collected from exchanges. Furthermore, the patterns of the day-of-the-week effects are also available after adjusting Bitcoin prices denominated in domestic currencies into USD.

Because of the discontinuity of data for some daily return series, estimation with dynamic variance is not applicable. It is assumed that the error item follows normal distribution with constant variance.

The day-of-the-week effects are wide-spread in Bitcoin markets, and they are not mainly caused by movements of foreign exchange rates. Actually, empirical findings in this study provide evidence for inefficiency of Bitcoin markets.

This paper aims to achieve two main objectives. The first is to introduce a suitable adjustment to the conventional dividend-price ratio, which would address econometric concerns and improve the predictability of the equity premium. The second is to compare the predictive performance of the newly introduced adjusted dividend-price ratio with the conventional dividend-price ratio.

The authors hypothesize that the adjusted dividend-price ratio will have better predictive power and forecasting quality for equity premium compared to the conventional dividend-price ratio. To test the hypothesis, the authors predict equity premium with both variables on a sample of 11 developed and emerging market indexes over a period spanning June 1995 to March 2017. To accommodate time variation in parameter values or structural breaks in the data, the authors conducted a fixed window rolling regressions using both variables. A variety of forecast techniques including magnitude and sign accuracy measures are applied to compare the performance of forecasts.

The adjusted dividend-price ratio is shown to be stationary and has both lower persistence and variability compared with the conventional dividend-price ratio. The authors find that the adjusted dividend-price ratio provides superior out-of-sample (OOS) performance compared to the conventional dividend-price ratio, for both size and sign accuracy, in forecasting equity premium for the majority of the countries in the sample.

This paper introduces an easy-to-follow modification in the conventional dividend-price ratio that can be replicated by researchers and practitioners alike. However, the study has a limitation in that it does not capture the impact of dividend-paying firms within each index on the predictive ability of the adjusted dividend-price ratio.

The knowledge of equity premium predictability is important in implementing market-timing strategies and could be beneficial for portfolio and risk management. The newly introduced variable is easy to construct using widely available data without the need for complex econometric estimation. Investors can use this variable to predict equity premiums in international markets, both developed and emerging. The findings of this paper will be relevant to financial analysts, portfolio managers, investors and researchers in international finance. For example, by using the adjusted dividend-price ratio, investors would see up to 0.5% improvement in their OOS monthly forecasts of the equity premium.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that proposes adjustment in the conventional dividend-price ratio based on the past observations of the most recent quarter. In this way, the paper offers fresh insight that dividend-price ratio is still useful to predict equity premium albeit, after some adjustments and modifications. The findings of the paper would result in renewed interest in using the dividend-price ratio as a predictor of the equity premium.

This study aims to examine the dynamic bidirectional causality between oil price (OIL) and stock market indexes in net oil-exporting (Russia) and net oil-importing (China) countries.

The authors use monthly data for the period starting from October 1995 to October 2021. In this study, the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality approach introduced by Balcilar et al. (2010) and the probit regression model are performed in order to identify the bidirectional causality.

The results show that the causal periods mainly occur during economic, financial and health crises. For oil-exporting country, the results suggest that any increase (decrease) in the OIL leads to an appreciation (depreciation) in the stock market index. The effect of the stock market on OIL is more relevant for the oil-importing country than that for the oil-exporting one. The COVID-19 consequences are demonstrated in the impact of oil on the Russian stock market. The probit regression shows that the US financial instabilities increase the probability of causality between OIL and stock market indexes in Russia and China.

The dynamic relationship between the variables must be taken into account in investment decisions. As financial instabilities in the USA drive the relationship between oil and stocks, investors should consider geopolitical, economic and financial elements when constructing their portfolios. Shareholders are required to include other assets in their portfolios since oil–stock relationship is highly risky.

This study provides further evidence of the bidirectional oil–stock causal link. Additionally, it examines the impact of financial instabilities on the probability that the OIL and the stock market index cause each other through the Granger effect.

The purpose of this paper is to construct a financial development index for China and to analyze the relationship between the financial sector development index and economic growth.

This study uses Johansen‐Juselius cointegration approach to determine long run relationship between variables. To determine the strength of causal relationship variance decomposition is used. The stability of coefficient is evaluated through rolling window regression method.

The results of Johansen‐Juselius cointegration approach confirm long run relationship between financial development index and economic growth. Normalized cointegrating vector indicates that financial development index, real interest rate, capital and labor force positively determine economic growth in China. The yearly coefficient is provided by the rolling regression and indicates that financial development index negatively link to economic growth in 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2003‐2005. Interest rate is negatively linked to economic growth in 1991‐1996, 2007 and 2008. The variance decomposition method validates that shocks in financial development index and real interest rate are explained by economic growth.

A financial development index for China is constructed and the relationship between economic growth and financial development is indicated.

The purpose of this paper is to construct a financial development index (FDI) for the Indian economy and also examine the relationship between FDI and economic growth.

Augment Dickey Fuller, Phillips Perron and Ng Perron unit root tests are employed in order to determine the level of integration. The long‐ and short‐run dynamics are obtained by using auto‐regressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and rolling window approach to estimate coefficient of each observation.

The results indicate that long‐run relationship is presented among the economic growth, FDI, real‐interest rate (RIR), labor force and capital. But FDI negatively associated with economic growth in the case of long‐ and short‐run and RIR also negatively determine the economic growth only in the long run. The rolling regression result confirms that FDI negatively associated to growth in the years of 1978, 1979, 1984‐1987, 1990, 1996‐2000, 2004 and 2005 and RIR is impede economic growth in the years of 1978, 1979, 1986, 1988‐1997, 2001, 2002, 2006 and 2008.

The paper constructs an FDI for the Indian economy by using the four indicators of financial development. The findings are useful for India's policy makers in order to maintain the parallel expansion of financial development and economic growth.

This paper investigates the global financial integration of the Gulf Cooperation Council markets, which is important for financial economists, global investors and policymakers.

The first step is to estimate a benchmark one-factor model and multifactor models over the entire sample period to obtain the time-invariant global integration estimates for the Gulf Cooperation Council markets. Because the global integration of the Gulf Cooperation Council markets may be time varying, the second step is to use 24-month rolling regressions to estimate the time-varying integration estimates. To explicitly test for structural breaks in global integration, this study applies a supremum Wald test to endogenously search for structural breaks.

Empirically, consistent evidence suggests that the Gulf Cooperation Council markets are increasingly integrated with international equity markets at different levels of financial development and from different regions. However, compared to other emerging and frontier markets, the global integration of the Gulf Cooperation Council markets is still relatively low, suggesting that these markets still offer significant diversification benefits for global investors.

This study contributes to the literature by systematically investigating the global integration of the Gulf Cooperation Council markets with monthly data (to account for the gradual information diffusion in international equity markets) and a longer sample period (to more robustly identify the trend in the global integration).