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Article
Publication date: 16 July 2009

Julia Kelly, Alasdair Goodwill, Nick Keene and Su Thrift

This pilot study investigated three historical risk factors for pathological arson identified in Jackson's Only Viable Option theory (Jackson, 1994), which views the act…

Abstract

This pilot study investigated three historical risk factors for pathological arson identified in Jackson's Only Viable Option theory (Jackson, 1994), which views the act as an adaptive response to circumstances that are difficult to tolerate and which the individual does not have the necessary skills to resolve by appropriate means. Twenty men with mild learning disabilities were recruited from inpatient forensic services. It was hypothesised that there would be a greater incidence of risk factors among individuals with an index offence of arson than those without, and that risk factors would significantly predict an index offence of arson. Significant differences were found between the groups for perceived inability to effect social change and childhood experiences of fire, but not for the family problems under investigation. However, the sample size was too small to draw reliable conclusions on the predictive ability of the risk factors. The findings suggest that perceived inability to effect social change and childhood experiences of fire are risk factors characteristic of men with learning disabilities who have set fires, lending support to elements of Jackson's theory and providing opportunities to develop evidence‐based practice. However, the underlying causes of these riskfactor characteristics remain unclear. It is hoped that the present study will help inform the choice of risk factors under investigation and improve the design of a larger study.

Details

The British Journal of Forensic Practice, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6646

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2022

Işıl Candemir and Cenk C. Karahan

This study aims to document the time varying risk premia for market, size, value and momentum factors for an emerging market using a sophisticated conditional asset…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to document the time varying risk premia for market, size, value and momentum factors for an emerging market using a sophisticated conditional asset pricing model. The focus of this study is Turkish stock market denominated in local currency with its peculiar risk premia.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ Gagliardini et al.'s (2016) econometric method that uses cross-sectional and time series information simultaneously to infer the path of risk premia from individual stocks.

Findings

Using this methodology, the authors assess several conditioning information and conclude that local dividend yield, inflation and exchange rates have the most explanatory power. The authors document the time varying risk premia in Turkey over three decades.

Originality/value

Existing studies on dynamic estimation of risk premia lack a consensus as to which state variables should be included and to what extent they impact the magnitude of the premium. The authors extend the conditioning information set beyond the ones existing in the literature to determine variables that are specifically important for an emerging market.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 September 2022

Lianhua Cheng and Dongqiang Cao

Clarifying the risk evolution mechanism of housing construction for work-safety management is essential. Existing studies have inadequately discussed the risk-accumulation…

Abstract

Purpose

Clarifying the risk evolution mechanism of housing construction for work-safety management is essential. Existing studies have inadequately discussed the risk-accumulation process in housing construction. Therefore, this study aimed to use the complex network theory and risk allocation mechanisms to explore the evolution of risk factors.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors analysed a database of housing construction accidents in China from 2015 to 2020 to identify risk factors. Moreover, the causal relationship between risk factors was determined through a systematic analysis of the logical sequence of risk factors. A complex network was used to construct a risk network for housing construction accidents (RNHCA).

Findings

The risk matrix method was used to define the factor risk threshold, and a risk value was assigned based on the correlation between risk factors. This contributes to the examination of the evolution mechanism of risk networks in the process of risk factor transmission. The case verification results show that the RNHCA quantitative assessment model can better evaluate the system risk status of housing construction accidents. Furthermore, this model can identify the key risk factors and risk chains with high risk in the evolution of the risk network.

Research limitations/implications

Accident investigation reports need to be classified and processed to analyse the evolution law of risk networks under different scales of construction project, such as high-rise buildings, middle-rise buildings, and low-rise buildings.

Practical implications

This study clarified the risk evolution process of complex systems in housing construction and provided a new method for analysing accidents.

Originality/value

This study clarifies the risk value allocation of risk factors in the transmission process and reveals the process of risk factor evolution in housing construction. This study explains the individual risk factors that form a systemic risk through the transmission chain. Moreover, this paper clarified the transformation relationship between system risk and accidents. The paper also provided a new perspective for risk analysis.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 July 2022

Yi Wang, Xiaopeng Deng and Hongtao Mao

This paper aims to explore the key risk factors affecting the Personnel Localization Management of international construction projects under the major public emergencies…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the key risk factors affecting the Personnel Localization Management of international construction projects under the major public emergencies represented by the novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic (hereinafter COVID-19) and how the public emergency affected the Personnel Localization Management from three levels: staff turnover rate, the number of different personnel, the salary and performance of workers. The paper also helps to enhance the construction enterprises' response capacity of major public emergencies and provides a comprehensive framework of optimization strategies for the Personnel Localization Management of international construction projects (hereinafter projects).

Design/methodology/approach

The main research method of this paper is the case study, and ten representative international construction projects are selected for case study in China construction enterprises (hereinafter CCE). And this study used the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and comparative analysis to find out all potential risk factors under the COVID-19 and analyze how the epidemic affects the Personnel Localization Management of projects which based on the primary data from 10 projects obtained through in-depth interviews and the secondary data from China First Metallurgical Group and Central South Construction Group's Overseas Enterprise.

Findings

The findings show that the outbreak of the major public emergencies not only greatly increased eight risk factors but also directly led to an increase in staff turnover rate. Meanwhile, the numbers of Chinese and local managers and workers are all affected, and an increase in the number and the salary performance of local workers can be reduced, to a certain extent, to the cost-to-output ratio of the projects. The findings would help construction enterprises better cope with Personnel Localization Management and enhance the response capacity of major public emergencies.

Research limitations/implications

This study will broaden researchers' horizons regarding “Personnel Localization Management under major public emergencies” and “risk factors of Personnel Localization Management in an international context.” Furthermore, construction enterprises looking for a better mechanism of Personnel Localization Management can benefit from research findings and lessons learned from the authors' case study during or before an outbreak of major public emergency. Lastly, the framework of optimization strategies for Personnel Localization Management can be used both for research purposes and practice issues in international construction projects.

Practical implications

The findings from the authors' case study offer the direction for international construction enterprises in China and other countries to formulate effective measures, strengthen overseas business and establish a crisis management mechanism for Personnel Localization Management under major public emergencies, and the findings provide emergency plans for projects to improve the public crisis handling capacity and respond to major public emergencies such as the COVID-19.

Social implications

This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 on the Personnel Localization Management of international construction projects from the perspective of personnel. This study provides a theoretical reference for the international construction industry to actively respond to major public emergencies. Besides, the research is conducive to improving the emergency response mechanism in the construction industry, and further promoting the high-quality and globalized development of international construction.

Originality/value

This study provides other researchers with a comprehensive understanding of the risk factors affecting the Personnel Localization Management of projects under the COVID-19 and insight for further research on localization management, risk management, and project management.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2022

Augustine Senanu Komla Kukah, De-Graft Owusu-Manu, Edward Badu and David John Edwards

This study aims to evaluate the key risk factors inherent in public–private partnership (PPP) power projects in Ghana and further determine the critical risk factors

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the key risk factors inherent in public–private partnership (PPP) power projects in Ghana and further determine the critical risk factors affecting both the public and private sectors in PPP power projects.

Design/methodology/approach

Ranking-type Delphi survey in two rounds was conducted to establish a comprehensive list of critical risk factors of PPP. Purposive and snowball sampling techniques helped obtain experts for the Delphi survey. Mean score ranking, factor analysis, Cronbach α coefficient and Kendall’s concordance were used for analysis. The probability of occurrence and severity of each risk factor were computed to obtain the risk impact.

Findings

From the list of 67 risks, 37 risk factors were deemed to be critical. The five topmost risk factors were: delay payment on contract, private investor change, political risks, fluctuating demand of power generated and public opposition. Principal component analysis grouped the risk factors into seven major themes.

Originality/value

This study develops an authoritative risk factor list for PPP power projects, which reflects both sector and country conditions for prioritizing and mitigating risk factors. Delphi approach adopted in this study can be used by future studies in similar environments where PPP is novel and expert respondents scarce.

Details

Journal of Facilities Management , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1472-5967

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 11 August 2016

Knut F. Lindaas and Prodosh Simlai

We examine the incremental cross-sectional role of several common risk factors related to size, book-to-market, and momentum in size-and-momentum-sorted portfolios. Unlike…

Abstract

We examine the incremental cross-sectional role of several common risk factors related to size, book-to-market, and momentum in size-and-momentum-sorted portfolios. Unlike the existing literature, which focuses on the conditional mean specification only, we evaluate the common risk factors’ incremental explanatory power in the cross-sectional characterization of both average return and conditional volatility. We also investigate the role of ex-ante market risk in the cross-section. The empirical results demonstrate that the size-and-momentum-based risk factors explain a significant portion of the cross-sectional average returns and cross-sectional conditional volatility of the benchmark equity portfolios. We find that the Fama–French (1993) factors and the ex-ante market risk are priced in the cross-sectional conditional volatility. We conclude that the size-and-momentum-based factors provide a source of risk that is independent of the Fama–French factors as well as ex-post and ex-ante market risk. Our results bolster the risk-based explanation of the size and momentum effects.

Details

The Spread of Financial Sophistication through Emerging Markets Worldwide
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-155-5

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2022

Augustine Senanu Komla Kukah, De-Graft Owusu-Manu, Edward Badu and David John Edwards

This paper aims to evaluate the risk factors and determines the overall risk level (ORL) of public-private-partnership (PPP) power projects in Ghana using fuzzy synthetic…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to evaluate the risk factors and determines the overall risk level (ORL) of public-private-partnership (PPP) power projects in Ghana using fuzzy synthetic evaluation methodology (FSEM).

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper review of literature led to the development of a 67-factor risk list which was ranked by experts and industry practitioners through a questionnaire survey.

Findings

These factors were grouped into principal risk factors (PRFs) using component analysis and they served as the input variables for fuzzy analysis. The seven components were: Contract and Payment risks, Environmental risks, Financial and Cost risks, Legal and Guarantee risks, Operation risks, Socio-Political and Performance risks (SPR) and Tender and Negotiation risks. Study showed that the ORL of Ghanaian PPP power projects is high implying they are risky to both the public and private sectors. Fuzzy analysis also confirmed SPR as the most critical principal factor.

Originality/value

This study is significant and demonstrates that fuzzy methodology can be used as a useful risk evaluation tool and risk assessment framework for private investors, policy makers and public sector.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 25 May 2021

Alessandra Girlando, Simon Grima, Engin Boztepe, Sharon Seychell, Ramona Rupeika-Apoga and Inna Romanova

Purpose: Risk is a multifaceted concept, and its identification requires complex approaches that are often misunderstood. The consequence is that decisions are based on…

Abstract

Purpose: Risk is a multifaceted concept, and its identification requires complex approaches that are often misunderstood. The consequence is that decisions are based on limited perception rather than the full value and meaning of what risk is, as a result, the way it is being tackled is incorrect. The individuals are often limited in their perceptions and ideas and do not embrace the full multifaceted nature of risk. Regulators and individuals want to follow norms and checklists or overuse models, simulations, and templates, thereby reducing responsibility for decision-making. At the same time, the wider use of technology and rules reduces the critical thinking of individuals. We advance the automation process by building robots that follow protocols and forget about the part of risk assessment that cannot be programed. Therefore, with this study, the objective of this study was to discover how people define risk, the influencing factors of risk perception and how they behave toward this perception. The authors also determine how the perception differed with age, gender, marital status, education level and region. The novelty of the research is related to individual risk perception during COVID-19, as this is a new and unknown phenomenon. Methodology: The research is based on the analysis of the self-administered purposely designed questionnaires we distributed across different social media platforms between February and June 2020 in Europe and in some cases was carried out as a interview over communication platforms such as “Skype,” “Zoom” and “Microsoft Teams.” The questionnaire was divided into four parts: Section 1 was designed to collect demographic information from the participants; Section 2 included risk definition statements obtained from literature and a preliminary discussion with peers; Section 3 included risk behavior statements; and Section 4 included statements on risk perception experiences. A five-point Likert Scale was provided, and participants were required to answer along a scale of “1” for “Strongly Agree” to “5” for “Strongly Disagree.” Participants also had the option to elaborate further and provide additional comments in an open-ended box provided at the end of the section. 466 valid responses were received. Thematic analysis was carried out to analyze the interviews and the open-ended questions, while the questionnaire responses were analyzed using various quantitative methods on IBM SPSS (version 23). Findings: The results of the analysis indicate that individuals evaluate the risk before making a decision and view risk as both a loss and opportunity. The study identifies nine factors influencing risk perception. Nevertheless, it must be emphasized that we can continue to develop models and rules, but as long as the risk is not understood, we will never achieve anything.

Details

Contemporary Issues in Social Science
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-931-3

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 May 2022

Hashan Pubudu Perera, B.A.K.S. Perera and Asha Dulanjalie Palihakkara

Coastal land reclamation (CLR) projects have become an effective solution for population growth while creating new market areas and expanding revenue streams. Although a…

Abstract

Purpose

Coastal land reclamation (CLR) projects have become an effective solution for population growth while creating new market areas and expanding revenue streams. Although a few studies have been conducted on risk management in CLR projects, they had very little prioritisation on financial and economic risk management. Thus, this study aims to manage the financial and economic risks of CLR projects.

Design/methodology/approach

A quantitative research approach consisting of three Delphi rounds was adopted for this study. The findings of this study were analysed and validated using statistical tools.

Findings

This study identified 13 significant financial and economic risk factors in CLR projects, among which poor quality of the sand and soil, delays in making payments, unpredictability of the safety and security of the country and high dredging volumes were the most significant. Most of these risks have to be borne by the client and the contractor. Conducting environmental impact studies, following quality control procedures and increasing social awareness are significant strategies to handle the financial and economic risks of CLR projects.

Originality/value

This study addresses the literature gap pertaining to financial and economic risk management in CLR projects by identifying its overall process, including the identification of significant financial and economic risks based on the severity levels; risk allocation among the client, contractor and consultant; and suitable risk handling strategies for each significant financial and economic risk factor. Moreover, the findings of this study can be used to effectively deal with financial and economic risks in CLR projects while raising society’s awareness.

Details

Construction Innovation , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1471-4175

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 April 2022

Hung Duy Nguyen and Laura Macchion

Risks in implementing green building (GB) projects have emerged as a significant obstacle for GB development, especially in developing countries. In recent years, both…

Abstract

Purpose

Risks in implementing green building (GB) projects have emerged as a significant obstacle for GB development, especially in developing countries. In recent years, both academics and construction practitioners have paid considerable attention to the risks associated with GB. In this study, the authors aimed to create a comprehensive risk assessment model that considers three crucial risk features: impact level, probability of occurrence and risk manageability.

Design/methodology/approach

In the research, authors adopted the mean scoring and fuzzy synthetic evaluation method to assess GB risks. Based on expert assessments, this model can determine the significance of risk factors, risk groups and overall risk. Notably, this research applied the proposed model to assess GB risks in Vietnam by surveying 58 GB experienced professionals.

Findings

The findings revealed that GB risks are relatively high in Vietnam, implying that risk management is essential for GB projects to succeed. The results also showed that “lack of experience of GB designers” is the most critical factor, and “human resources risk in the design phase” is the top crucial risk group.

Originality/value

This study contributes a novel and practical model to help practitioners assess risks in GB projects. In addition, this research offers detailed GB risk evaluations in Vietnam and thus could be a valuable reference for construction practitioners and future studies.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

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