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Article
Publication date: 16 July 2009

Julia Kelly, Alasdair Goodwill, Nick Keene and Su Thrift

This pilot study investigated three historical risk factors for pathological arson identified in Jackson's Only Viable Option theory (Jackson, 1994), which views the act…

Abstract

This pilot study investigated three historical risk factors for pathological arson identified in Jackson's Only Viable Option theory (Jackson, 1994), which views the act as an adaptive response to circumstances that are difficult to tolerate and which the individual does not have the necessary skills to resolve by appropriate means. Twenty men with mild learning disabilities were recruited from inpatient forensic services. It was hypothesised that there would be a greater incidence of risk factors among individuals with an index offence of arson than those without, and that risk factors would significantly predict an index offence of arson. Significant differences were found between the groups for perceived inability to effect social change and childhood experiences of fire, but not for the family problems under investigation. However, the sample size was too small to draw reliable conclusions on the predictive ability of the risk factors. The findings suggest that perceived inability to effect social change and childhood experiences of fire are risk factors characteristic of men with learning disabilities who have set fires, lending support to elements of Jackson's theory and providing opportunities to develop evidence‐based practice. However, the underlying causes of these riskfactor characteristics remain unclear. It is hoped that the present study will help inform the choice of risk factors under investigation and improve the design of a larger study.

Details

The British Journal of Forensic Practice, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6646

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Article
Publication date: 14 October 2021

Lanjing Wang and Pratibha Rani

In recent years, a number of researchers have attempted to make an integration of sustainability with supply chain risk management. These studies have led to valued…

Abstract

Purpose

In recent years, a number of researchers have attempted to make an integration of sustainability with supply chain risk management. These studies have led to valued insights into this issue, though there is still a lack of knowledge about the mechanisms by which sustainability-related issues are materialized as risks in the supply chain management.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper aims to provide a comprehensive framework to evaluate the sustainability risk in the supply chain management mechanism. To do so, a novel approach using the double normalization-based multiple aggregation (DNMA) approach under the intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) environment is extended to identify, rank and evaluate the sustainability risk factors in supply chain management.

Findings

To provide comprehensive sustainability risk factors, this study has conducted a survey using interview and literature review. In this regard, this study identified 36 sustainability risk factors in supply chain management of the manufacturing firms in five different groups of risk, including sustainable operational risk factors, economic risk factors, environmental risk factors, social risk factors, and sustainable distribution and recycling risk factors. The results of this paper found that the poor planning and scheduling was the important sustainability risk in supply chain management of the manufacturing firms, followed by the environmental accidents, production capacity risk, product design risk and exploitative hiring policies. In addition, the results of the study found that the extended approach was effective and efficient in evaluating the sustainability risk factors in supply chain management of the manufacturing firms.

Originality/value

Three aggregation methods based on the normalization techniques are discussed. A DNMA method is proposed under intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs). To propose a broad procedure for identifying and classifying sustainability risk factors (ESFs) in supply chain management. To rank the sustainability risk factor, the authors utilize a procedure for evaluating the significance degree of the sustainability risk factor in supply chain management.

Details

Journal of Enterprise Information Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0398

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Article
Publication date: 23 August 2021

Murat Gunduz and Ibrahim Al-Ajji

Bid/no-bid decision is a significant and strategic decision, which must be finalized at an early stage of the bidding process. Such decision-making may have significant…

Abstract

Purpose

Bid/no-bid decision is a significant and strategic decision, which must be finalized at an early stage of the bidding process. Such decision-making may have significant impact on the performance of the contractors. Using Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) and Classification and Regression (CRT) decision tree algorithms, this paper aims to develop bid/no-bid models for design-bid-build projects for contractors.

Design/methodology/approach

The models in this study have been developed using CHAID and CRT algorithms. Thirty-four bid/no-bid key factors were collected via extensive research. The bid/no-bid factors were listed based on their importance index as a result of a questionnaire distributed among the construction professionals. These factors were divided into five main risk categories – owner, project, bidding situation, contract and contractor – which were taken as inputs for the models. Split-sample validation was applied for testing and measuring the accuracy of the CHAID and CRT models. Moreover, Spearman's rank correlation and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) tests were employed to identify the statistical features of the received 169 responses.

Findings

The key bid/no-bid factors in construction industry were categorized in five related groups and ranked based on the relative importance index. It was found that the top 6 ranked bid/no-bid factors were (1) current workload, (2) need for work, (3) previous experience with employer; (4) timely payment by the employer; (5) availability of other projects for bidding (6) reputation of employer in the industry. Matrix comparison between all bid/no-bid groups was performed using Spearman's correlation to measure the relationship between each of the two paired groups. It was concluded that all the relationships were positive.

Originality/value

Existing bidding models require many inputs and advanced understanding of mathematics and software to run the model. Contractors tend to use easy, fast and available support methods. Excluding a great number of the bid/no-bid factors may affect the final decision. This paper proposes a bid/no-bid decision tree models for contractors of different sizes. It is the first study in the literature, to the best of authors' knowledge, to study bid/no-bid decision with the proposed decision tree algorithm. The proposed models in this study overcome the shortfalls of most previous models such as avoiding the complexity and difficulties of applying the concept. The proposed model will provide the contractors with a bid/no-bid decision based on the input for the defined bid factor groups. The proposed models display the soft spots and hot spots between the independent and dependent variables, which leads to a better decision. The proposed models display the result effectively in visual terms, easy to understand and easy to apply. The proposed models are a form of multiple effect (or variable) analysis which allows the companies to explain, describe, predict or classify an outcome.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article
Publication date: 5 July 2021

Shumank Deep, Vanita Bhoola, Saumya Verma and Udara Ranasinghe

Construction projects in the real estate sector are important for a nation’s economic growth. However, owing to several constraints and stereotypes, the construction…

Abstract

Purpose

Construction projects in the real estate sector are important for a nation’s economic growth. However, owing to several constraints and stereotypes, the construction industry is suffering from major capital losses. A review of recent literature revealed that risks occurring in real estate construction projects (RECPs) carried out in developing economies can be divided into four categories, i.e. financial risks, design risks, execution risks and sociopolitical risks. This study aims to identify the critical factors that lead to these risk categories and develop a control structure for RECPs.

Design/methodology/approach

A quantitative method, i.e. a questionnaire-based survey, was used for this study. Using a random sampling technique the questionnaire was distributed to selected, highly experienced project managers. To determine whether the factors identified as part of the literature review strongly influence the categories, the factor analysis of the observations was performed.

Findings

The observations made in this study lead to the identification of six critical risk causing factors, i.e. lack of efficient planning, execution constraints, external constraints, client-induced constraints, project constraints and partner experience. The observations indicated a lack of knowledge of project management, organizational culture and a claims redressal mechanism in RECPs. Also, this study recommends a blockchain-based control structure to control the occurrence of the risk causing factors identified.

Originality/value

This study recommends a blockchain-based control structure for controlling the risks occurring.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

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Article
Publication date: 3 June 2021

Liping Ding, Jiangshan Li, Yuqing Wang, Jing Shuai and Xinxin Xu

Under the pressure of environment degradation and energy consumption rises, solar photovoltaic power generation (SPPG) has been seen as a strategic emerging industry in…

Abstract

Purpose

Under the pressure of environment degradation and energy consumption rises, solar photovoltaic power generation (SPPG) has been seen as a strategic emerging industry in China. However, the SPPG projects have many uncertain factors in the process of the life cycle. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the investment risk comprehensively.

Design/methodology/approach

Specifically, this paper firstly identified the risk factors and consequences of SPPG project investment and constructed the investment risk factor evaluation index system. Secondly, the factor analysis method was used to reveal the key investment risk factors and risk consequences. Then, the research hypotheses and conceptual model were proposed, and the empirical analysis was conducted based on the structural equation model (SEM).

Findings

The results showed that the six key risk factors (political, economic, technological, management, market and natural) have a significant impact on the risks during the whole period. The influence degree of risk factors in the operational period is such that market factor > political factor > economic factor > management factor > natural factor > technical factor. In addition, the risk of constructional period has a significant impact during the risk of operational period. Except for natural factors, all risk factors are correlated among the mutual influence relationship of risk factors. Finally, this paper puts forward management implications based on the above conclusions: effectively identify investment risk factors and comprehensively improve risk management ability; (refine the risk factors of SPPG project investment and develop targeted risk prevention and control strategies; define risk management objectives and make relevant strategic plans.

Research limitations/implications

Because of the chosen research approach, the research results may lack generalisability. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to test the proposed propositions further.

Practical implications

It can also help stakeholders propose risk prevention strategies throughout the entire process, to promote the sustainable development of SPPG projects.

Originality/value

This study focuses on the investment risk of SPPG projects, by building an evaluation index system to identify key risk factors, and then establishes a SEM covering constructional period risks and operational period risks to better explore SPPG project risks, in an effort to reveal the mutual influence relationship and influence path of investment risk factors of the projects.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

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Book part
Publication date: 11 August 2016

Knut F. Lindaas and Prodosh Simlai

We examine the incremental cross-sectional role of several common risk factors related to size, book-to-market, and momentum in size-and-momentum-sorted portfolios. Unlike…

Abstract

We examine the incremental cross-sectional role of several common risk factors related to size, book-to-market, and momentum in size-and-momentum-sorted portfolios. Unlike the existing literature, which focuses on the conditional mean specification only, we evaluate the common risk factors’ incremental explanatory power in the cross-sectional characterization of both average return and conditional volatility. We also investigate the role of ex-ante market risk in the cross-section. The empirical results demonstrate that the size-and-momentum-based risk factors explain a significant portion of the cross-sectional average returns and cross-sectional conditional volatility of the benchmark equity portfolios. We find that the Fama–French (1993) factors and the ex-ante market risk are priced in the cross-sectional conditional volatility. We conclude that the size-and-momentum-based factors provide a source of risk that is independent of the Fama–French factors as well as ex-post and ex-ante market risk. Our results bolster the risk-based explanation of the size and momentum effects.

Details

The Spread of Financial Sophistication through Emerging Markets Worldwide
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-155-5

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Book part
Publication date: 25 May 2021

Alessandra Girlando, Simon Grima, Engin Boztepe, Sharon Seychell, Ramona Rupeika-Apoga and Inna Romanova

Purpose: Risk is a multifaceted concept, and its identification requires complex approaches that are often misunderstood. The consequence is that decisions are based on…

Abstract

Purpose: Risk is a multifaceted concept, and its identification requires complex approaches that are often misunderstood. The consequence is that decisions are based on limited perception rather than the full value and meaning of what risk is, as a result, the way it is being tackled is incorrect. The individuals are often limited in their perceptions and ideas and do not embrace the full multifaceted nature of risk. Regulators and individuals want to follow norms and checklists or overuse models, simulations, and templates, thereby reducing responsibility for decision-making. At the same time, the wider use of technology and rules reduces the critical thinking of individuals. We advance the automation process by building robots that follow protocols and forget about the part of risk assessment that cannot be programed. Therefore, with this study, the objective of this study was to discover how people define risk, the influencing factors of risk perception and how they behave toward this perception. The authors also determine how the perception differed with age, gender, marital status, education level and region. The novelty of the research is related to individual risk perception during COVID-19, as this is a new and unknown phenomenon. Methodology: The research is based on the analysis of the self-administered purposely designed questionnaires we distributed across different social media platforms between February and June 2020 in Europe and in some cases was carried out as a interview over communication platforms such as “Skype,” “Zoom” and “Microsoft Teams.” The questionnaire was divided into four parts: Section 1 was designed to collect demographic information from the participants; Section 2 included risk definition statements obtained from literature and a preliminary discussion with peers; Section 3 included risk behavior statements; and Section 4 included statements on risk perception experiences. A five-point Likert Scale was provided, and participants were required to answer along a scale of “1” for “Strongly Agree” to “5” for “Strongly Disagree.” Participants also had the option to elaborate further and provide additional comments in an open-ended box provided at the end of the section. 466 valid responses were received. Thematic analysis was carried out to analyze the interviews and the open-ended questions, while the questionnaire responses were analyzed using various quantitative methods on IBM SPSS (version 23). Findings: The results of the analysis indicate that individuals evaluate the risk before making a decision and view risk as both a loss and opportunity. The study identifies nine factors influencing risk perception. Nevertheless, it must be emphasized that we can continue to develop models and rules, but as long as the risk is not understood, we will never achieve anything.

Details

Contemporary Issues in Social Science
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-931-3

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Article
Publication date: 16 November 2020

Phuong Thi Le, Nicholas Chileshe, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos and Raufdeen Rameezdeen

Despite the fact that extensive studies on public-private partnerships have focused on risk identification and classification, research still lacks concentration on…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the fact that extensive studies on public-private partnerships have focused on risk identification and classification, research still lacks concentration on studying the latent structure of risks in build operate transfer (BOT) transportation projects, especially in developing countries. The research was carried out in Vietnam and this paper aims to explore the underlying relationships among risks in the context of BOT transportation projects.

Design/methodology/approach

A questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate the perception of stakeholders regarding the probability of occurrence and the severity of the impact of risks related to BOT transportation projects. Factor analysis was performed based on a total of 40 risks.

Findings

Seven risk groups were formed as a result of factor analysis, namely, “projects’ viability and political-regulatory risks”, “macroeconomic risks”, “projects’ feasibility study and market risks”, “financial risks”, “organization/coordination and force majeure risks”, “tolling, contractual, approvals risks” and “media and land expropriation risks”.

Originality/value

The research contributes to the current body of knowledge by providing deep insight into the structure of risks in BOT transportation projects in Vietnam through exploring the underlying relationships among risks, to form a latent risk structure from practical viewpoints. The findings are beneficial for involved stakeholders and policymakers to set up and propose suitable management strategies and related policies.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

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Article
Publication date: 17 January 2020

Yanfeng Chu and Zhongren Wang

There are a large number of interdependent risk factors in complex project. Risk response strategy without considering risk correlation cannot achieve good risk response…

Abstract

Purpose

There are a large number of interdependent risk factors in complex project. Risk response strategy without considering risk correlation cannot achieve good risk response. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to propose a risk response strategy selection model considering risk correlation based on the grey K-shell algorithm.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper mainly focuses on the measurement of two aspects of risk factors. One is the ability of the risk factors to influence other risk factors, another is the degree affected by other risk factors. Both of the above are measured by the grey K-shell algorithm improved in this paper, and the weights of these are used for the constructing of risk response strategy selection model.

Findings

The risk response strategy considering risk relevance is more effective than the risk response strategy without considering risk relevance. Also, results indicate that as the risk response budget increases the risk response effect also increases, and the increasing trend is weakens. The relative gap between the effect of response strategies considering risk relevance and the strategy without considering risk relevance increases first and, then, decreases with the increase of budget.

Originality/value

The results of this paper demonstrate that the risk response strategy considering risk relevance is more effective than not considering risk relevance. The approach presented in this paper can guide project managers’ risk decisions and may also help to find the best risk response budget.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

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Article
Publication date: 12 February 2020

Moshood D. Taofeeq, A.Q. Adeleke and Chia-Kuang LEE

The main parties in construction projects are the engineers, clients, architects, contractors, material suppliers, and consultants such as the project managers. They play…

Abstract

Purpose

The main parties in construction projects are the engineers, clients, architects, contractors, material suppliers, and consultants such as the project managers. They play the most important roles in implementing construction projects, and their activities have a significant impact on their risk attitudes during the execution of projects. Because each participant has their particular interests, by proprietary information, each participant is driven to achieve maximum benefit, which can result in improper behaviour concerning each other. The risk in this situation is that there would be a moral hazard and adverse selection based on information asymmetry among principal construction participants especially contractors; this outcome is called risk attitudes. Behaviour is affected by various risk factors and the successful implementation of construction projects depends on effective management of the key risk factors part of which is a personal factor. The purpose of this paper is to identify the critical factors affecting contractors’ risk attitudes among Malaysian construction companies with the moderating role of government policy. Organizational control theory and expected utility theory were used to develop the theoretical framework. The study investigated G7 contractors in the Malaysian construction industry. Data were collected through the use of a questionnaire.

Design/methodology/approach

The research analysis was based on structural equation modelling (SEM), and the research model was ascertained through the Smart PLS 3.0 software (Ringle et al., 2012). Partial least square-SEM is an appropriate analysis that was used to assess the results in the current research because its algorithm permits the unrestricted computation of cause-effect relationship models that use both reflective and formative measurement models. This study uses the quantitative method to identify the individual factors influencing contractors’ risk attitude and the moderating role of government policy among construction companies in Malaysia. This study also focussed on the G7 contractors operating in the Malaysia construction industry that specializes in building, bridge and road construction projects. The duration of the data collection was between two and three weeks. The questionnaire was prepared both in Malay and English languages to allow the respondents to respond most conveniently. Before the copies of the questionnaire were distributed, the selected contractors’ committees were duly informed about the details of the survey procedures. The adopted Likert scale was originally a five-point scale that ranges from “very low” to “very high” with “low or high” in between.

Findings

The result of this study moderately supports the hypothesized relationships proposed in the theoretical model. In particular, the results recommended that personal factors that affect risk attitudes (working experience, emotional intelligence, professional competence and physical health) have a significant relation with contractors’ risk attitudes in the construction companies in Malaysia. Also, it has been found that government policy (rules and regulations) are important determinants of risk attitudes.

Research limitations/implications

The study focussed on individual factors affecting contractors’ risk attitudes in the construction company’s in Malaysia. Therefore, the dimensions of factors affecting risk attitudes can be used in another aspect of construction projects such as management factors, economic factors and technical factors. Therefore, further research might investigate other grades of Malaysian construction companies apart from Grade 7 contractors to know if there is a similarity in the results; other grades of the contractors might have potential positive contributions to the construction industry as well.

Practical implications

With consider to the practical, the current research findings have several contributions for the contractors and project managers. The research results demonstrate that government policy plays an important role in the construction industry and organizational support will also help contractors to control their attitudes in working place. Individual factor has a direct relationship with contractor risk attitudes (CRA), project managers must ensure that the government policy has an impact in all their workers and offered is competitive, fair and by their employees’ contribution. Apart from that managers should also focus on organizational goals especially in managing professional and skilled contractors in the companies. Employees who perceived their employers as uncaring or not supporting their needs and well-being may not be happy working with the organization and the tendency for them to change their attitudes towards risk will be high.

Social implications

This study also contributes knowledge by lending empirical support to the organizational control theory and expected utility theory system’s effect on CRA and confirming that changing one individual attitude will change the whole equilibrium. This is useful to aid in further synthesis of organizational control theory and expected utility theory in construction companies.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt at evaluating the direct and moderating effect relationships among individual factor affecting risk attitudes, government policy and CRA in Malaysian construction companies. These findings also prop up the applicability of the organizational control theory and expected utility theory within the context of construction companies in Malaysia. Also, this study contributed to the literature on psychology by subjective (psychological) measures of individuals’ behaviour and decisions. In the CRA literature, there has been much discussion on personal characteristics to understand behaviours such as attitudes of a contractor towards risk and morals.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. 18 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

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