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Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Nikolay Markov

This chapter investigates the predictability of the European monetary policy through the eyes of the professional forecasters from a large investment bank. The analysis is…

Abstract

This chapter investigates the predictability of the European monetary policy through the eyes of the professional forecasters from a large investment bank. The analysis is based on forward-looking Actual and Perceived Taylor Rules for the European Central Bank which are estimated in real-time using a newly constructed database for the period April 2000–November 2009. The former policy rule is based on the actual refi rate set by the Governing Council, while the latter is estimated for the bank’s economists using their main point forecast for the upcoming refi rate decision as a dependent variable. The empirical evidence shows that the pattern of the refi rate is broadly well predicted by the professional forecasters even though the latter have foreseen more accurately the increases rather than the policy rate cuts. Second, the results point to an increasing responsiveness of the ECB to macroeconomic fundamentals along the forecast horizon. Third, the rolling window regressions suggest that the estimated coefficients have changed after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in October 2008; the ECB has responded less strongly to macroeconomic fundamentals and the degree of policy inertia has decreased. A sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to applying a recursive window methodology and some of the findings are qualitatively unaltered from using Consensus Economics forecasts in the regressions.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 July 2019

Lassaâd Mbarek, Hardik A. Marfatia and Sonja Juko

This paper aims to examine the Treasury bond yields response to monetary policy shocks in Tunisia under a heterogeneous economic environment.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the Treasury bond yields response to monetary policy shocks in Tunisia under a heterogeneous economic environment.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a traditional fixed coefficient model, the impact of monetary policy changes on the term structure of interest rates for the whole period from January 2006 to December 2016 is estimated first. Then the stability of this relationship by distinguishing two sub-periods around the revolution of January 2011 is studies. To investigate how the relationship between the monetary policy and the Treasury yield curve evolves over time, a time-varying parameter model is estimated.

Findings

The results show that the impact of monetary policy is more pronounced at the short end of the yield curve relative to the longer end. Furthermore, this impact declines significantly across all maturities following the revolution and exhibits wide time variation. This evidence supports the negative influence of high levels of uncertainty on monetary policy effectiveness and highlights the desirability of more active monetary policy, especially in turbulent environment.

Research limitations/implications

The impact of uncertainty on the effectiveness of monetary policy shocks needs to be explored further in future research to understand the structural sources of uncertainty and their dynamic interactions with monetary policy and risk aversion in asset markets.

Practical implications

A more active role of the central bank to influence the yield curve mainly through Treasury bond purchases covering medium and long maturities may be warranted. Communication also needs to be reinforced to ensure predictability of the monetary policy stance.

Originality/value

This paper extends the empirical literature on the pass-through of monetary policy to interest rates for an emerging country in context of transition by estimating a state-space model to test the time-varying behavior and examine the influence of increased economic uncertainty on monetary policy effectiveness.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 27 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Nikolay Markov

This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking…

Abstract

This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking policy reaction function within a real-time framework. In order to compare observed and predicted policy behavior, the chapter estimates Actual and Perceived regime switching Taylor Rules for the ECB. The former is based on the refi rate set by the Governing Council while the latter relies on the professional point forecasts of the refi rate performed by a large investment bank before the upcoming policy rate decision. The empirical evidence shows that the Central Bank’s main policy rate has switched between two regimes: in the first one the Taylor Principle is satisfied and the ECB stabilizes the economic outlook, while in the second regime the Central Bank cuts rates more aggressively and puts a higher emphasis on stabilizing real output growth expectations. Second, the results point out that the professional forecasters have broadly well predicted the actual policy regimes. The estimation results are also robust to using consensus forecasts of inflation and real output growth. The empirical evidence from the augmented Taylor Rules shows that the Central Bank has most likely not responded to the growth rates of M3 and the nominal effective exchange rate and the estimated regimes are robust to including these additional variables in the regressions. Finally, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers the policy rate has switched to a crisis regime as the ECB has focused on preventing a further decline in economic activity and on securing the stability of the financial system.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 October 2019

James Lee Caton

The development of blockchain and cryptocurrency may alleviate the economic strain associated with recession. Economic recessions tend to be aggregate-demand driven…

Abstract

Purpose

The development of blockchain and cryptocurrency may alleviate the economic strain associated with recession. Economic recessions tend to be aggregate-demand driven, meaning that they are caused by fluctuations in the supply of or demand for money. Holding monetary policy as solution assumes that stability must arise from outside of the economic system. Under a policy regime that allows innovations in blockchain to develop, blockchain technology may promote a money supply that is responsive to changes in demand to hold money. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that cryptocurrencies present an opportunity to profitably implement rules that promote macroeconomic stability. In particular, cryptocurrency that is asset-backed may provide a means for cheaply attaining liquidity during a crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of cryptocurrency in promoting macroeconomic equilibrium is approached through the lens of monetary theory. Moves away from macroeconomic equilibrium necessitate either a change in the average price of money or a change in the quantity of money, or a change in portfolio demand for money. Cryptocurrency promotes an increase, however this requires the alignment of policy regulating the use of cryptocurrency, reduction in taxes placed on the use of cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency protocol.

Findings

Cryptocurrency is unlikely to become legal tender, but it may alleviate macroeconomic fluctuations as a near money that provides liquidity and whose supply is sensitive to changes in demand to hold money and money-like substitutes. This role might be inhibited if policy stifles the development of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

Research limitations/implications

New financial innovations like cryptocurrencies can be analyzed applying the equation of exchange in light of the mechanics of money creation under conditions of disequilibrium. Monetary disequilibrium may be promoted by policy that causes bottlenecks in financial markets.

Originality/value

Theory of monetary disequilibrium has broad implications for the development and regulation of financial markets. This theory has not been applied to the development of cryptocurrency markets.

Details

Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2045-2101

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 September 2014

Peter T. Hughes and Stefan Kesting

This paper aims to review the economic literature on central bank communication to address the questions of how economists account for the effects of speech acts and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to review the economic literature on central bank communication to address the questions of how economists account for the effects of speech acts and whether and to what extent discourse analysis is applied in their studies. Moreover, whether there may be room for more linguistic approaches to analyse central bank communication is investigated.

Design/methodology/approach

A range of recently published (2004-2013) works in the area of central bank communication are critically scrutinized to highlight the current thinking in this area. The sources are organised into different sections, namely, communication in monetary policy theory; impacts of speech acts; optimizing central bank communication; and linguistic analysis of central bank communication.

Findings

The current literature is developing a coherent argument that central bank communication is an important part of monetary policy and that speech acts by the central bank do have impacts at the macroeconomic level. Linguistic analysis does have the potential to contribute to this literature, as little attention has been paid to the content of the speech acts.

Originality/value

This paper fulfils the need for an up-to-date review of the developing literature on central bank communication. This paper also provides support for linguistic analysis in this area.

Details

On the Horizon, vol. 22 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1074-8121

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 October 2003

Filippo Cesarano

The Bretton Woods agreements set up the post‐war monetary order on the basis of fixed exchange rates and autonomous national economic policy. Changes in parity were…

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Abstract

The Bretton Woods agreements set up the post‐war monetary order on the basis of fixed exchange rates and autonomous national economic policy. Changes in parity were allowed in the case of fundamental disequilibrium, but this concept was not defined, promoting a lengthy but sterile debate. This paper, after reviewing the main features of the discussion, analyzes Keynes's overlooked contribution, which helps to clarify the issue at stake.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 30 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 February 2021

Asif M. Ruman

Considering the relationship between the central bank balance sheet and unconventional monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis, it is crucial to see how the…

2252

Abstract

Purpose

Considering the relationship between the central bank balance sheet and unconventional monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis, it is crucial to see how the unconventional monetary policy, given near-zero interest rates, affects future stock market performance. This paper analyzes the impact of the Fed's balance sheet size on stock market performance.

Design/methodology/approach

To analyze the Fed's balance sheet size's long-term stock market implications, this paper uses the asset pricing framework of market return predictability such as Ordinary least squares (OLS) and Generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis.

Findings

Findings in this paper suggest that the Fed's balance sheet size, deflated by asset market wealth, presents evidence of return predictability during 1926–2015 that is robust against standard controls. These results can be explained through the redistribution of risk and the wealth channels of monetary policy transmission. The changing balance sheet size of a central bank (1) affects systemic risk, yields and expectations and (2) signals the future direction of monetary policy and thus economic outlook.

Research limitations/implications

The main implication of these findings is that policymakers should avoid a severe imbalance between a central bank's balance sheet size and assets market wealth.

Originality/value

The empirical evidence in this paper documents a century-old relation between the Fed's balance sheet size and US stock market return using the Fed's balance sheet data for the last 100 years and stock market returns from the Center for research in security prices (CRSP) database.

Book part
Publication date: 12 November 2014

Camille Cornand and Frank Heinemann

In this article, we survey experiments that are directly related to monetary policy and central banking. We argue that experiments can also be used as a tool for central…

Abstract

In this article, we survey experiments that are directly related to monetary policy and central banking. We argue that experiments can also be used as a tool for central bankers for bench testing policy measures or rules. We distinguish experiments that analyze the reasons for non-neutrality of monetary policy, experiments in which subjects play the role of central bankers, experiments that analyze the role of central bank communication and its implications, experiments on the optimal implementation of monetary policy, and experiments relevant for monetary policy responses to financial crises. Finally, we mention open issues and raise new avenues for future research.

Details

Experiments in Macroeconomics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-195-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 April 2021

Tran Van Phuong Duong, Szu-Hsien Lin, Huei-Hwa Lai and Tzu-Pu Chang

This research examines how macroeconomic variables can precisely predict bull/bear stock markets in China and Taiwan.

Abstract

Purpose

This research examines how macroeconomic variables can precisely predict bull/bear stock markets in China and Taiwan.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper adopts a two-state Markov switching model to characterize the bull and bear markets spanning from 1994 to 2019 and then conduct a bear stock market predictability test by running regressions between the filtered probabilities of bear markets and a series of macroeconomic variables in turn at different horizons of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months.

Findings

This paper shows that inflation rates, changes in real exchange rates, and foreign currency reserve growth are key predictors of bear markets in China, while term spreads, unemployment rates and foreign reserve growth are major factors that can predict bear markets in Taiwan. Remarkably, industrial production growth does not have predictive power for bear markets, which may suggest emerging markets are driven by fund flows rather than real economic activities. Besides, the impact directions of foreign currency reserve growth are opposite, which may be due to different proportions of the financial accounts in their balance of payments.

Practical implications

In practical respect, this paper provides market participants the usefulness, impact direction and implications of bear market predictors when building their market-timing strategies in China and Taiwan stock markets. The government institutions may also thereby make appropriate policies to prevent huge stock market downturns and serious drawbacks.

Originality/value

It highlights the “fund-driven market hypothesis” and “foreign currency reserve effects” that commonly dominate Taiwan and China stock markets since both are highly affected by international funds.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 May 2018

Abdelmonem Oueslati and Yacine Hammami

This paper aims to investigate the performance of various return forecasting variables and methods in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The authors document that market excess…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the performance of various return forecasting variables and methods in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The authors document that market excess returns in Saudi Arabia are predicted by changes in oil prices, the dividend yield and inflation, whereas the equity premium in Malaysia is predicted only by the US market excess returns. In both countries, the authors find that the diffusion index is the best forecasting method and stock return predictability is stronger in expansions than in recessions. To interpret the findings, the authors perform two tests. The empirical results suggest irrational pricing in Malaysia and rationally time-varying expected returns in Saudi Arabia.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply the state-of-the-art in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting techniques to predict stock returns in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia.

Findings

The Saudi equity premium is predicted by oil prices, dividend yield and inflation. The Malaysian equity premium is predicted by the US market excess returns. In both countries, the authors find that the diffusion index is the best forecasting method. In both countries, predictability is stronger in expansions than in recessions. The tests suggest irrational pricing in Malaysia and rationality in Saudi Arabia.

Practical implications

The empirical results have some practical implications. The fact that stock returns are predictable in Saudi Arabia makes it possible for policymakers to better evaluate future business conditions, and thus to take appropriate decisions regarding economic and monetary policy. In Malaysia, the results of this study have interesting implications for portfolio management. The fact that the Malaysian market seems to be inefficient suggests the presence of strong opportunities for sophisticated investors, such as hedge and mutual funds.

Originality/value

First, there are no papers that have studied the return predictability in Saudi Arabia in spite of its importance as an emerging market. Second, the methods that combine all predictive variables such as the diffusion index or the kitchen sink methods have not been implemented in emerging markets. Third, this paper is the first study to deal with time-varying short-horizon predictability in emerging countries.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

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