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Article
Publication date: 12 October 2021

Rexford Abaidoo, Elvis Kwame Agyapong and Kwame Fosu Boateng

This paper aims to examine the effect of volatility in prices of internationally traded commodities (the backbone of most economies) on the stability of the banking…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effect of volatility in prices of internationally traded commodities (the backbone of most economies) on the stability of the banking industry from three main perspectives; bank liquidity reserves, overall bank risk and bank capital adequacy.

Design/methodology/approach

Data were compiled from various sources for 30 emerging economies from 2002 to 2018 and were analyzed using the two-step system generalized method of moments estimation technique.

Findings

The study finds that all things being equal, the magnitude and direction of impact of commodity price volatility on bank stability among economies in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) depend on the type and nature of the commodity in question; and the bank stability proxy used. For instance, an increase in crude oil prices is found to foster stability in the banking industry (proxied by bank liquid reserves) but insignificant when stability in the banking industry is proxied using other banking sector parameters. Additionally, government effectiveness and corruption control have varying moderating influences on how volatility associated with prices of internationally traded commodities influence various proxies for banking industry stability.

Originality/value

This study highlights the effect of fluctuations in prices of key internationally traded commodities (adjusted for foreign exchange impact) that are important sources of revenue among economies in SSA on banking sector stability from liquidity, overall risk and capital adequacy perspectives. The influential role of governance in the relationship between volatility in the price of commodities and bank stability is also revealed by the study.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

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Article
Publication date: 7 November 2016

Rexford Abaidoo and Florence Ellis

This study aims to explore potential paradigm shift in how “global economies” react to adverse macroeconomic conditions from key dominant economies such as the US and the…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore potential paradigm shift in how “global economies” react to adverse macroeconomic conditions from key dominant economies such as the US and the Chinese economies. This is done by examining how economic activities within key economies around the world react to, or are impacted by, modeled adverse macroeconomic condition emanating from the Chinese and the US economies.

Design/methodology/approach

To verify potential paradigm shift in how external macroeconomic uncertainty impacts “global” industrial productivity and overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth within selected economies, this study opts for seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model. Adoption of this method has been influenced by the potential for correlated error terms between modeled adverse macroeconomic condition, industrial productivity and GDP growth variables being tested in a two-equation system.

Findings

Empirical results based on SUR analysis find no evidence of this potential paradigm shift within the time frame examined in the study. Estimated results suggest that notwithstanding the recent growth surge of the Chinese economy, macroeconomic happenings within the US economy still exert significantly more influence on key economies around the world. For instance, this study finds that macroeconomic uncertainty associated with the US economy significantly constrains both industrial productivity and overall GDP growth within most of the economies tested, whereas the same condition emanating from the Chinese economy seems to rather have a weak positive impact on the same macroeconomic variables.

Research limitations/implications

Research results are strictly limited to the focus time frame for this study; it is likely that expanded data involving more years beyond what was analyzed in this study could yield different results.

Originality/value

This study is an original research based on data from a reputable US federal institution.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Article
Publication date: 16 May 2019

Rexford Abaidoo

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the extent to which volatility associated with corporate performance could be attributed to specific adverse…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the extent to which volatility associated with corporate performance could be attributed to specific adverse macroeconomic conditions in a bivariate causality analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the Toda–Yamamoto Wald test approach to Granger causality analysis in verifying significant causal interactions if any, between corporate performance volatility and seven macroeconomic conditions or variables.

Findings

This study finds that economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have bidirectional causal interaction with corporate performance volatility. In addition, estimated results further suggest significant unidirectional causal interaction between corporate performance volatility and inflation expectations, exchange rate volatility, inflation and inflation uncertainty, with direction of causality running from the macroeconomic variables toward corporate performance volatility. This study, however, found no significant causal interaction between corporate performance volatility and recessionary probability or likelihood of recession.

Practical implications

This study’s conclusions could have significant and critical policy implications for key corporate policymakers responsible for corporate performance strategy. Various causal interactions identified could inform policy framework and, subsequently, strategies geared toward minimizing volatility associated with performance during episodes of any of the various macroeconomic conditions examined in this study.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study stems from its focus on corporate performance volatility instead of corporate performance and potential causal interactions it might have with key adverse macroeconomic conditions, some of which have not been examined in previous studies according to reviewed literature.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 3 August 2021

Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Kwame Agyapong

This study examines how specific micro-level macroeconomic indicators influence corporate performance volatility among US corporate bodies in the short run.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines how specific micro-level macroeconomic indicators influence corporate performance volatility among US corporate bodies in the short run.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs error correction autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model (ECM) to examine how micro-level variables influence volatility associated with corporate performance in the short run.

Findings

This paper finds that disaggregated or micro-level variables examined, tend to exhibit features that are not readily apparent from the aggregate variable from which such variables are derived. For instance, reported empirical estimate suggests that, growth in expenditures on services and nondurable goods tend to lower volatility associated with corporate performance, whereas government expenditures and expenditures on durable goods rather worsens volatility associated with corporate performance, all things being equal. Additionally, presented empirical estimates further provide evidence suggesting that macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty significantly moderate or influence the extent to which disaggregated variables impact corporate performance volatility.

Originality/value

Compared to related studies in the reviewed literature, this study rather examines volatility associated with corporate performance instead of the corporate performance indicator itself. Additionally, this paper also examines how disaggregated variable instead of aggregate variables impact such volatility. Finally, the moderating role of key macroeconomic conditions in such a relationship is also examined.

Details

Journal of Money and Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2596

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Article
Publication date: 13 July 2021

Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Agyapong Agyapong

This paper aims to examine the impact of commodity price changes (crude oil, cocoa, coffee, cotton and gold) on the international market on development (development…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the impact of commodity price changes (crude oil, cocoa, coffee, cotton and gold) on the international market on development (development proxied by the human development index) (HDI) among emerging economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical estimates verifying theorized relationships in question were performed using the two-step system generalized method of moments framework.

Findings

Results from the empirical estimates suggest that a percentage increase in the prices of crude oil, cocoa and gold in the world market have a significant positive influence on development among economies in the sub-region all things being equal; however, similar price changes in cotton and coffee showed a negative effect on development. Further empirical estimates suggest that the extent to which prices of key commodities such as crude oil, influence development in the sub-region benefit less from institutional variables such as government effectiveness, corruption control and political stability. The same institutional variables, however, were found to augment how changes in cocoa prices influence development among economies in the sub-region.

Originality/value

This study specifically examines the extent to which commodity price fluctuations impact a holistic measure of development, (HDI which inherently captures economic growth) among emerging economies such as those in the SSA region, and how such relationship may be moderated by conditions such as corruption control and government effectiveness. The review suggests that such a study is rare, did not find any specific empirical inquiry focusing on what this study is designed to accomplish. A major gap or deficit identified among most reviewed studies is the failure to verify how the surmised relationship between movements in prices of commodities traded on the international market and development is moderated by institutional factors such as corruption control, government effectiveness and political stability. This study specifically examines such interaction effects in its empirical analysis.

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Article
Publication date: 6 January 2021

Rexford Abaidoo

This study examines dynamics of global and regional financial market efficiency; and how specific features of the market and other conditions influence variability in such…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines dynamics of global and regional financial market efficiency; and how specific features of the market and other conditions influence variability in such efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs fixed effects statistical approach in its examination of how specific features of financial markets influence variability in its efficiency.

Findings

This study finds that individual IMF defined economic regions tend to exhibits significantly different financial market efficiency characteristics given specific market features and conditions. In regional level comparative analysis (e.g. Europe, Africa, Asia–Pacific etc.) this study finds that incidence of financial market uncertainty is the dominant condition with significant effect on financial market efficiency across all the IMF regions. In the global level analysis, empirical estimates presented suggest that financial market uncertainty, financial institutional depth and financial institutional efficiency tend to have significant positive influence on global financial market efficiency all things being equal. In the same analysis however, this study finds that financial market and financial institutional access growth has significant negative impact on financial market efficiency.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study compared to related ones found in the literature stems from its focus on financial market efficiency at the global, and IMF defined regional block level instead of on a specific economy as often found in the literature. Additionally, in contrast to other related studies, this study further examines the role of global financial market uncertainty in its financial market efficiency analysis. Financial market uncertainty variable may be unique to this study because the variable is derived through an econometric process from a base variable.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 1 September 2020

Rexford Abaidoo and Hod Anyigba

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation);…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation); macroeconomic uncertainty and the likelihood of recessionary conditions influence performance indicators in the US banking sector over a specified time period.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) advanced by Zellner (1962) in its examination of how specific strands of inflationary conditions, and other adverse macroeconomic conditions influence performance dynamics in the US banking sector.

Findings

Empirical evidence suggest that among various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined, inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have significant constraining impact on key performance indicators in the US banking sector than other conditions examined. Comparatively, this study finds that inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have much more constraining impact on return on equity, than on return on assets in the US banking sector. Results further suggest that among the three bank performance indicators examined, net interest margin is the least vulnerable bank performance indicator to various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in the study.

Practical implications

Apart from the various empirical results noted above, this study's findings are projected to help inform strategic planning decisions among institutions in the banking sector. The various findings could, for instance, inform policies and operational strategies geared toward reducing vulnerability associated with specific performance indicators such as return on equity. This reduction could be achieved by critically examining how the various performance indicators react to individual adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in this study. The process could ultimately help in developing tailored measures/procedures aimed at reducing how susceptible key performance indicators are to the various adverse macroeconomic conditions. This study's findings could also provide the platform for more adaptive policies aimed at minimizing the effects of noted macroeconomic conditions on operational efficiency in the banking sector.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study, compared to related ones found in the literature, stems from its treatment of three variant of related strands of macroeconomic condition (different variant of inflationary conditions) in the same framework in its empirical analysis.

目的

本研究旨在探討與通貨膨脹有關的狀況的組成部分(通脹預期 、通脹不確定性及體現了的通脹), 宏觀經濟不確定性及經濟衰退狀況的可能性、在一段特定時間內對美國銀行業的表現指數有何種程度的影響。

研究設計/方法/理念

研究採用塞爾納 (Zellner) (1962) 提出的看似無關迴歸模型 (SUR),去探討通脹狀況的特定組成部分及其它不利的宏觀經濟狀況如何影響美國銀行業內的績效動態。

研究結果

實證證據暗示在被研究的各個不利宏觀經濟狀況中,通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性,對美國銀行業內的主要業績指標的約束影響, 與其它被探討的狀況相比,往往會較重大。相對地、本研究結果顯示通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性,對美國銀行業資本回報率的約束影響、往往遠多於資產收益率。研究結果進一步顯示,在被探討的三個銀行業績指標中,就本研究所探討的各個不利的宏觀經濟狀況而言,淨息差是脆弱性最小的銀行業績指標。

實務方面的含意

除了上述各實證結果外,本研究結果預期會給銀行業內機構間作戰略規劃的決定時提供資料,譬如,各項研究結果或可在制定旨在減少與特定業績指標如資本回報率相聯繫的脆弱性的政策和經營策略時提供資料。這脆弱性的減少,是透過嚴謹地研究各個業績指標,如何對在本研究中被探討的個別不利宏觀經濟狀況作出反應而達致的。這程序或許最終會幫助建立一個以減少各個不利宏觀經濟狀況對主要業績指標的影響為目的的量身定制措施/程序。本研究的結果,或許亦可為更多旨在減弱眾所周知的宏觀經濟狀況對銀行業運營效率的影響的適應性政策提供平台。

研究原創性/價值

與文獻中可見的相關研究比較,本研究的獨特性源於其實證分析,是涉及在同一個構架內處理宏觀經濟狀況相互有關的組成部分的三個變體 (通脹狀況的不同變體) 。

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 21 September 2020

Rexford Abaidoo and Ayodele Alade

This study examines potential causal interactions between a dominant economy and its trading partners, with the view of verifying surmised economic contagion effects…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines potential causal interactions between a dominant economy and its trading partners, with the view of verifying surmised economic contagion effects traditionally presumed to emanate from dominant economies toward trading partners.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the Toda–Yamamoto Wald test approach to bi-variate causality analysis.

Findings

This study verified the existence of the economic contagion phenomenon; Estimated empirical evidence failed to fully support the presumption that such contagion effects mostly emanates from dominant economies toward trading partners, all things being equal. For instance, although this study found significant economic contagion effects emanating from the US economy toward the Chinese economy, the authors also detected six different uni-directional causal interactions with the direction of causality emanating from trading partners toward the US economy.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study stems not from its verification of the economic contagion phenomenon using equity market-related economic uncertainty as the potential contagion. This study fills a gap in the present literature by focusing on the happenings in the equity market as the potential candidate of the economic contagion phenomenon between a dominant economy and its key trading partners.

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Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Rexford Abaidoo

This study aims to examine short- and long-run effects of specific macroeconomic conditions on risk premium estimates on lending.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine short- and long-run effects of specific macroeconomic conditions on risk premium estimates on lending.

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical estimates are based on error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models.

Findings

The results suggest that, in the short run, inflation expectations, recession expectations and actual inflationary conditions tend to have a significant impact on risk premium estimates; in the long run, however, only inflation expectations and recession expectations are significant in risk premium estimates on lending.

Originality/value

This study examines how specific conditions of uncertainty and expectations influence variability in risk premium estimates on lending in the US economy.

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Article
Publication date: 20 August 2018

Rexford Abaidoo

The purpose of this paper is to examine how specific macroeconomic indicators and conditions impact short- and long-run loan delinquency rates among US commercial banks…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine how specific macroeconomic indicators and conditions impact short- and long-run loan delinquency rates among US commercial banks under various economic episodes.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag framework (ARDL) and error correction model in its examination of how loan delinquency rates are impacted by specific macroeconomic variables and conditions.

Findings

This study finds that in both the short and long run, a percentage growth in macroeconomic indicators, such as industrial productivity and private domestic investments, reduces loan delinquency rates among commercial banks, given all things being equal. Additionally, this study also finds that adverse macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation, economic policy uncertainty and volatility, associated with specific macroeconomic variables, such as investment growth, etc., tend to worsen loan delinquency rates. Empirical results further suggest that among the various macroeconomic conditions examined, inflationary pressures tend to have the most significant heightening impact on loan delinquency rates among commercial banks.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study, compared to similar studies found in the literature, has to do with its verification of potential association between loan delinquency rates and specific hitherto unexamined macroeconomic conditions. Compared to similar studies on loan delinquency, this study collectively examines how conditions of uncertainty, volatility and expectations of macroeconomic conditions shape loan delinquency rates among commercial banks.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 33 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

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