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The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty by examining three Caribbean countries: the Bahamas, Barbados, and Jamaica.

ARMA‐GARCH models are used to estimate inflation uncertainty along with Granger‐causality tests to infer the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty.

The results reveal that both the Bahamas and Jamaica exhibit a high degree of volatility persistence in response to inflationary shocks, while Barbados has a much lower persistence measure. Granger‐causality tests indicate that an increase in inflation has been a positive impact on inflation uncertainty for each country. However, an increase in inflation uncertainty yields a decrease in inflation in the case of Jamaica. In summary, the results for the Bahamas and Barbados support the Friedman‐Ball hypothesis, whereas the results for Jamaica support Holland's stabilization‐motive hypothesis.

Future research on inflation and inflation uncertainty can be extended to incorporate possible regime shifts associated with fiscal and monetary policy.

The study fills a void in the literature with respect to the inflation‐inflation uncertainty nexus for Caribbean countries. The results of the paper may be useful to policymakers in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policy.

The purpose of this paper is to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation‐targeting countries.

The approach takes the form of a time‐varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specification, used to derive impulse uncertainty and structural uncertainty.

This study attempts to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation‐targeting countries, i.e. Canada, Finland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. Decomposing inflation uncertainty into two components – impulse and structural, a positive association was found between the expected inflation and interest rates. Structural uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on interest rates for some countries. It has also been found that the long‐run effects of inflation on interest rates are less than unity for the post‐inflation targeting period, which implies that in some respect the Central Bank has been successful in targeting inflation. This has allowed the Central Bank to employ a less restrictive monetary policy in an environment of a credible inflation‐targeting strategy.

Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) can be used instead of GARCH modelling.

This is the first study that has tried to establish the link between different types of inflation uncertainty and interest rates for the inflation‐targeting countries to see the effect of inflation targeting.

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation); macroeconomic uncertainty and the likelihood of recessionary conditions influence performance indicators in the US banking sector over a specified time period.

The study adopts seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) advanced by Zellner (1962) in its examination of how specific strands of inflationary conditions, and other adverse macroeconomic conditions influence performance dynamics in the US banking sector.

Empirical evidence suggest that among various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined, inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have significant constraining impact on key performance indicators in the US banking sector than other conditions examined. Comparatively, this study finds that inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have much more constraining impact on return on equity, than on return on assets in the US banking sector. Results further suggest that among the three bank performance indicators examined, net interest margin is the least vulnerable bank performance indicator to various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in the study.

Apart from the various empirical results noted above, this study's findings are projected to help inform strategic planning decisions among institutions in the banking sector. The various findings could, for instance, inform policies and operational strategies geared toward reducing vulnerability associated with specific performance indicators such as return on equity. This reduction could be achieved by critically examining how the various performance indicators react to individual adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in this study. The process could ultimately help in developing tailored measures/procedures aimed at reducing how susceptible key performance indicators are to the various adverse macroeconomic conditions. This study's findings could also provide the platform for more adaptive policies aimed at minimizing the effects of noted macroeconomic conditions on operational efficiency in the banking sector.

The uniqueness of this study, compared to related ones found in the literature, stems from its treatment of three variant of related strands of macroeconomic condition (different variant of inflationary conditions) in the same framework in its empirical analysis.

本研究旨在探討與通貨膨脹有關的狀況的組成部分(通脹預期 、通脹不確定性及體現了的通脹), 宏觀經濟不確定性及經濟衰退狀況的可能性、在一段特定時間內對美國銀行業的表現指數有何種程度的影響。

研究採用塞爾納 (Zellner) (1962) 提出的看似無關迴歸模型 (SUR)，去探討通脹狀況的特定組成部分及其它不利的宏觀經濟狀況如何影響美國銀行業內的績效動態。

實證證據暗示在被研究的各個不利宏觀經濟狀況中，通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性，對美國銀行業內的主要業績指標的約束影響, 與其它被探討的狀況相比，往往會較重大。相對地、本研究結果顯示通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性，對美國銀行業資本回報率的約束影響、往往遠多於資產收益率。研究結果進一步顯示，在被探討的三個銀行業績指標中，就本研究所探討的各個不利的宏觀經濟狀況而言，淨息差是脆弱性最小的銀行業績指標。

除了上述各實證結果外，本研究結果預期會給銀行業內機構間作戰略規劃的決定時提供資料，譬如，各項研究結果或可在制定旨在減少與特定業績指標如資本回報率相聯繫的脆弱性的政策和經營策略時提供資料。這脆弱性的減少，是透過嚴謹地研究各個業績指標，如何對在本研究中被探討的個別不利宏觀經濟狀況作出反應而達致的。這程序或許最終會幫助建立一個以減少各個不利宏觀經濟狀況對主要業績指標的影響為目的的量身定制措施／程序。本研究的結果，或許亦可為更多旨在減弱眾所周知的宏觀經濟狀況對銀行業運營效率的影響的適應性政策提供平台。

與文獻中可見的相關研究比較，本研究的獨特性源於其實證分析，是涉及在同一個構架內處理宏觀經濟狀況相互有關的組成部分的三個變體 (通脹狀況的不同變體) 。

The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationships between inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in Malaysia.

The modeling approach allows for structural breaks to avoid the masking of specific impacts.

Based on the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model, the paper found strong evidence favoring a positive effect of a change in the inflation uncertainty as predicted by the Friedman-Ball hypothesis. In addition, inflation (inflation uncertainty) has direct (indirect) negative effect on the output growth. The results are consistent with the Taylor effect – increases in inflation uncertainty decreases output uncertainty. The analysis also reveals that economic uncertainty lowers the growth rate of output, complying with Bernanke's idea.

The present study suggests that extra efforts are required to locate the breaks in the variance in order to draw concrete evidence on link between economic uncertainty and macroeconomic performance.

This paper relates to the literature on central bank (CB) transparency and inflation uncertainty. Considering that opacity is a possible source for inflation uncertainty the purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that increase in the dispersion of the degree of CB opacity generates higher levels of inflation uncertainty.

In a first step, the authors present a theoretical model that shows how increase in the dispersion of the degree of CB opacity creates higher levels of inflation uncertainty. In a second step, the authors test the assumption that increase in the dispersion of the degree of CB opacity generates higher levels of inflation uncertainty in the Brazilian economy.

The findings denote that CB transparency is an important tool for guiding public expectations and thus contributes to avoiding the uncertainty caused by CB preferences.

This paper extends the theoretical model presented by de Mendonça and Simão Filho (2007) by the theoretical link between the forecast error and opacity. Furthermore, because the theoretical underpinning relies on the CB guiding inflation expectations, the authors construct an uncertainty measure based on survey of forecasts where such expectations can be inferred through the variability in the forecast error.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation has changed over time in Latin America.

The authors use a stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) as proposed by Chan (2017).

Considering inflation series for the last two decades, we report evidences of high uncertainty from 1996 to early 2000s. Moreover, despite being positive throughout the sample, the overall relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation has changed over the years in Latin America, underscoring the importance of our time-varying specification.

There are evidences of a greater volatile inflation behavior in the beginning of the sample period in comparison to the last few years. Overall, the considered Latin American economies seem to have endured relatively well the external adverse shocks from the 2008 global financial crisis.

The use of an SVM model with TVP in order to assess the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is new to the Latin America literature.

We develop a theoretical model to compare forecast uncertainty estimated from time-series models to those available from survey density forecasts. The sum of the average variance of individual densities and the disagreement is shown to approximate the predictive uncertainty from well-specified time-series models when the variance of the aggregate shocks is relatively small compared to that of the idiosyncratic shocks. Due to grouping error problems and compositional heterogeneity in the panel, individual densities are used to estimate aggregate forecast uncertainty. During periods of regime change and structural break, ARCH estimates tend to diverge from survey measures.

To investigate the complex relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.

This paper uses a bivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK model to investigate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.

Using monthly inflation and equity returns data for the G7 and EM7 economies, we find that the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on equity returns vary across countries.

The mixed evidence we find potentially reflects the changing dynamics, policy regimes, economic shocks and country-specific factors (such as differences in the financing patterns of enterprises and the legal and financial environments) across the G7 and EM7 countries.

We contribute to the empirical literature in the following ways. First, we rely on a wide sample of countries, including both developed and emerging economies. Second, we extend previous research by estimating a GARCH-in-mean model of monthly equity returns in which both realized returns and their conditional volatility are allowed to vary with inflation. Previous articles that studied the relationship between inflation and stock market returns generally sought time-invariant effects of inflation on stock returns.

The paper helps to reconcile the divergent results of previous empirical studies and distinguish between alternative explanations of the relationship between inflation and equity returns.

Our study provides an improved comprehension of the ambiguous relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns under various central bank mandates and different levels of central bank independence. The mixed empirical evidence across countries we present provides insights for the macroeconomic models that consider the relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic performance as a fundamental building block. Therefore, our empirical study calls for further work on the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.

The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia.

Multivariate EGARCH models has been used to estimate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia.

Using quarterly data in multivariate EGARCH models, this study finds that both inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty have negative and significant effects on output growth. The paper also finds that, while inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on inflation, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation. The study uses a newly constructed oil price dummy as a control variable and finds that oil price changes significantly increase inflation uncertainty. The study also finds that inflation uncertainty and the inflation level have both declined since the adoption of a formal inflation‐targeting monetary policy in Australia.

Multivariate EGARCH model can be used to estimate the effects of inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for cross‐country analysis.

This is the first study of the effect of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and growth in Australia using a newly constructed oil price dummy in a multivariate EGARCH framework.

Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper aims to analyze the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India.

The methodology uses a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and Granger Causality test.

Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty.

The research results have important implication for policy makers and especially the Reserve Bank of India.

It provides strong support to the notion of an opportunistic central bank in India.

The results of the paper are of relevance not only to the monetary policy makers but also to academicians in India and other developing countries.