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The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has been associated with the decline in housing prices across the globe. There are two main channels through which the US monetary policy may affect the real estate market in the dollar-pegged countries: the cost of serving mortgages (financing cost) and the exchange rate channel (for example, the appreciation of the US dollar and consequently the local currency). The exchange rate channel, which involves the appreciation of the US dollar and the subsequent effect on the local currency, is particularly significant in the case of Dubai, given how international the housing market in Dubai and might be viewed as a tradable good. Using recent data, the purpose of this study to evaluate the spillover impact of the US monetary policy on the housing market performance in the dollar-pegged countries using Dubai as a case study.

For this purpose, this study collected unique longitudinal data on the volume of the monthly transactions of residential properties and performs a panel-data analysis using within-variation models. The changes in the interest rate policy in the USA are determined by the domestic inflation in the USA, thereby, representing an exogenous shock in the UAE.

The results are robust to different specifications and suggest that a strong negative correlation between the interest rate in the USA and the housing sector demand in Dubai. Fiscal policy measures can be taken to mitigate tighter financial conditions in case of policy misalignment.

Few studies have looked at the spillover impact of the global monetary conditions on the real estate market in the GCC region. This study fills this gap by exploring the impact of the US financial conditions on Dubai’s real estate, using panel data analysis.

In this study, a different approach is introduced to generate the kinetic sub-model for the modeling of solid-state pyrolysis reactions based on the thermogravimetric (TG) experimental data over a specified range of heating rates. Gene Expression Programming (GEP) is used to produce a correlation for the single-step global reaction rate as a function of determining kinetic variables, namely conversion, temperature, and heating rate.

For a case study on the coal pyrolysis, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.99 was obtained using the generated model according to the experimental benchmark data. Comparison of the model results with the experimental data proves the applicability, reliability, and convenience of GEP as a powerful tool for modeling purposes in the solid-state pyrolysis reactions.

The resulting kinetic sub-model takes advantage of particular characteristics, to be highly efficient, simple, accurate, and computationally attractive, which facilitates the CFD simulation of real pyrolizers under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions.

It should be emphasized that the above-mentioned manuscript is not under evaluation in any journals and submitted exclusively for consideration for possible publication in this journal. The generated kinetic model is in the final form of an algebraic correlation which, in comparison to the conventional kinetic models, suggests several advantages: to be relatively simpler, more accurate, and numerically efficient. These characteristics make the proposed model computationally attractive when used as a sub-model in CFD applications to simulate real pyrolizers under complex heating conditions.

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

This paper examines the reaction of the Egyptian stock market to two substantial devaluations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) in 2022 and tests the informational efficiency of the Egyptian market.

The paper uses the event study framework to analyze the significance and direction of abnormal returns of the leading index of the Egyptian stock market (EGX30) on and around the devaluation days. It employs both the constant mean model and the market model to estimate the normal returns of the EGX30. Additionally, the paper uses data on two equity indices, one global and one for emerging markets, as benchmarks for normal returns.

The paper finds that the Egyptian stock market experienced significant positive abnormal returns on the devaluation days of the EGP in March and October of 2022, indicating a positive market reaction to the devaluation. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the Egyptian market may not be informationally efficient as significant positive abnormal returns were observed two weeks before and two weeks after the devaluation day, suggesting news leaks and delayed reactions, respectively.

This study is the first to examine the impact of the recent two devaluations of the EGP in 2022 on the Egyptian stock market. It complements existing literature by analyzing the immediate market reaction to two consecutive devaluations in an African country. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the efficiency of the Egyptian market in processing information related to exchange rates.

This paper aims to answer the following important questions: Is public debt in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries sustainable? What are the determinants of public debt sustainability in these countries, and do these determinants exhibit heterogeneity due to regional, natural resource, and income differences among SSA countries?

This study analyzes the public debt sustainability in SSA countries using the theoretical model known as the Present Value Budget Constraint (PVBC) model developed by Hamilton and Flavin (1986), and adopts the econometric testing method proposed by Trehan and Walsh (1991). Moreover, to empirically investigate the determinants of public debt sustainability in SSA countries, the System-Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) method is applied. Furthermore, this study conducts heterogeneity analysis by categorizing the sample based on different regions, natural resource endowments, and income levels. The data of this study are sourced from the IMF and World Bank databases for 45 SSA countries from 2005 to 2021.

Findings reveal that public debt in SSA countries is not sustainable in the long run, with factors such as the previous government debt, long-term debt ratio, debt repayment capacity, economic growth rate, inflation rate, export to GDP, and government fiscal deficit rate influencing sustainability. Additionally, the factors exhibit heterogeneity attributed to regional, natural resource, and income variations among SSA countries.

The findings of our study will serve as a catalyst for policymakers in the SSA countries to embrace and sustain robust fiscal consolidation and debt stabilization measures. Moreover, countries with distinct characteristics should implement tailored approaches. Additionally, policymakers in SSA countries should implement economic measures to address public debt issues. These measures include improving the macroeconomic structure, promoting economic transformation and diversification of industries, fostering sustainable economic growth, ensuring price stability, and strengthening resilience against external shocks and debt risks. Specifically, countries endowed with indigenous species, resources, and tourism potential should adopt a well-coordinated strategy that utilizes agriculture, tourism, ecotourism, and the hospitality industry as instruments for sustainable local community and rural development.

Firstly, it assesses the sustainability of public debt and its determinants for countries in SSA, which distinguishes it from previous studies that only focus on either debt sustainability or determinants of debt separately. Secondly, by including multiple SSA countries in the analysis, this study stands out from prior research that predominantly concentrates on specific nations. Thirdly, the utilization of the System-GMM method for analyzing determinants adds a novel dimension to this study, departing from earlier literature primarily focused on debt thresholds. Lastly, the heterogeneity analysis conducted in this study provides an empirical foundation for tailoring policies to different countries, addressing a facet often overlooked in earlier literature.

For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework.

This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates.

The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification.

The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.

The ways communities have regarded disasters and natural hazards in the cultural sphere can provide a lens to inform the understanding of their ability to withstand shocks and the factors that led to such conditions. Only by tracing the complexities of creating, transmitting and preserving a culture of preparedness among disaster-vulnerable communities can researchers and practitioners claim to be working toward policy that is informed by the communities’ own experience and design policy or programming on their behalf.

In efforts to prevent, respond to and recover from disasters, what alternatives are available to top-down strategies for imposing expert knowledge on lay publics? How is the context of communities’ socioecological context understood in the development of programs and policy on their behalf? What can be learned from community narratives and cultural practices to inform disaster risk reduction?

I collected examples of how different communities perceive, prevent and respond to disaster through art, music and literature and analyzed how these were embedded into local narratives and how historical context influenced such approaches. My findings show that communities use cultural practices to contextualize experiences of hazards into their collective narrative; that is, storytelling and commemoration make disasters comprehensible. By incorporating such findings into existing policies and programs, institutions may be able to more effectively apply them to affected communities or build new ones around their actual needs and experiences.

By framing disasters as an anthropological inquiry, practitioners can better recognize the influence of a place’s nuance in the disaster management canon–guided by these details, not despite them.

This article investigates how the healthcare sector can reorganize its procurement network to better balance its resilience and cost-minimization objectives.

A single case study was conducted on the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE) during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave in the Quebec public healthcare network. Interviews were conducted with stakeholders from the supply chain management (SCM) departments at eight public healthcare institutions.

Two major challenges in the early months of the pandemic impacted the development of resilience in the healthcare network. First, peripheral actors’ decisions, which orient procurement objectives, limited the deployment of resilience measures in the supply chain (SC). Second, SC resilience included hundreds of products other than PPE that are critical to the delivery of care. The article illustrates the challenges of SCR, which will inevitably be accompanied by additional costs when purchasing in the public healthcare sector is often focused on the lowest price.

Drawing from the network perspective model, this article examines the actions of Quebec supply network stakeholders through the three phases of SCR: anticipation, response to disruption, and recovery. Finally, the article suggests that decision-makers remove the cost of resilience measures from the purchase price of products, in order to maintain these measures over the long term.

The purpose of this commentary is discuss how musical intervention and imagined interactions can be used to deal with conflict. Music has been called the universal language because of its tonality and rhythm. It affects conflict and aggression and helps people to deal with stress. Research is reviewed showing physiological arousal with background music. The effects of music on aggression are summarized in terms of emotional regulation, catharsis and empathy, and the use of mental imagery in the form of imagined interactions, including relational maintenance catharsis and conflict linkage, is discussed. The incremental sound organizer (ISO) principle of music therapy is discussed as a mechanism to affect emotions while listening to music. Finally, a tool to measure the emotional effect of music on listeners is discussed in terms of the musical mood wheel.

This is a commentary on the effects of background music on reducing aggression.

Music can reduce aggression, depending on how it is used. Music affects how we manage our emotions, reduces stress, provides catharsis and can be a distracting element. Music can enhance empathic feeling; induce positive moods, social bonding, physiological changes and neurobiological changes; and affect our arousal.

Music therapy and musical intervention can be applied to conflict resolution.

The ISO principle of music therapy is designed to deal with changing a person’s emotions as they listen to a medley of music. The mood of the person is measured using a series of scales reflecting a continuum of sadness to happiness, and the music is designed to match the mood of the patient to the music being played and/or listened to, which in turn fosters the achievement of an altered state of consciousness. For example, if you are angry, start with music that is loud and gradually switch to a more tranquil piece of music. “The vectoring power of music is that we change the mood or emotion of persons from one affective pole (joy) to its opposite (anger) through small incremental changes in the rhythm and intensity of the music” (Honeycutt, 2003, p. 82).

Background music in music psychology literature is often referred to as musical intervention. Background music can help us recall positive and negative scenes as the music triggers endorphins in the brain (Salimpoor et al., 2011). Background music is intended to enhance the surrounding context without drawing significant attention. It is often played in spaces such as restaurants, stores, offices or public places to create a certain mood or ambiance.

It is important to note that the effectiveness of musical intervention in reducing aggression can vary based on individual preferences, the specific type of music used, and the context in which it is applied. Additionally, while music intervention can play a role in aggression reduction, it is often most effective when used as part of a comprehensive therapeutic approach.

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.