Search results

If the only difference between cities lies in their initial housing prices, the initially lower-price cities should eventually catch up with the initially higher-price ones, i.e., “absolute convergence.” Alternatively, if the major determinants of housing prices are city-specific, cities will converge to parallel growth paths of housing prices, i.e., “conditional convergence.” This study tests for the existence of absolute and conditional convergence in house prices among cities in China. The strong evidence for conditional convergence suggests that each city possesses its own steady-state housing price to which it is converging, which depends on the city's own socio-economic characteristics. In other words, differences in these socio-economic characteristics among cities can create permanent differences in housing price among them. The differences in steady-states house price across cities reflect differences in the level of socio-economic development among them. The findings inform the kinds of interventions and resources that are most likely to be effective in reducing income disparity.

The financial crisis starting in 2008 made many European countries opt for a change of exchange rate regime. The choice of price measure as an entry requirement to the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and as input in the monetary policy decision process re‐appeared as an important political and research issue. This paper aims to argue that, considering the importance of producer prices in international competition, their role is underplayed by policy makers and researchers.

Producer prices are analyzed in the transition from national exchange‐rate regimes to the EMU for 13 two‐digit manufacturing sectors in the first 11 countries to adopt the Euro.

It was found that significant price convergence before 1993‐1998, but no or modest evidence of convergence after 1998‐2005 when the Euro was introduced. This pattern is partly different from what prior studies have found for consumer prices, and is consistent with the change of exchange rate regime to a monetary union anchoring inflation rates. A conditional β‐convergence analysis reveals effective exchange‐rate changes and differences in cyclicality as important determinants of price convergence, suggesting that import of inflation is an important determinant of price developments in the EMU.

The paper concludes that considering the role of producer prices and their deviating pattern from consumer prices, producer prices are underplayed in the research and deserve more attention. It is argued that increased attention to producer prices is warranted.

Focusing monetary policymaking on consumer prices alone appears inefficient. Rather, then, support for the trade‐off approach in monetary policy‐making is supported.

In considering different solutions to the financial crisis, increasing attention should be paid to the development of producer prices.

This is the first study to focus on producer prices in the research on the transition from a national exchange rate regime to a membership of a monetary union.

The purpose of the study is to examine the long-run convergence properties of condominium prices based on the ripple effect for five major US metropolitan areas (Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco). Specifically, we test for both overall convergence in condominium prices and the possibility of distinct convergence clubs to ascertain the interdependence of geographically dispersed metropolitan condominium markets.

Our analysis uses two approaches to identify the convergence properties of condominium prices: the Lee and Strazicich (2003) unit root test with endogenous structural breaks and the Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) time-varying nonlinear club convergence tests.

The Lee and Strazicich (2003) unit root tests identify two structural breaks in 2006 and 2008 with the rejection of the null hypothesis of a unit root and long-run convergence in condominium prices in the cases of Boston and New York. The Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) club convergence test reveals the absence of overall convergence in condominium prices across all metropolitan areas, but the emergence of two distinct convergence clubs with clear geographical segmentation: on the east coast with Boston and New York and the west coast with Los Angeles and San Francisco while Chicago exhibits a non-converging path.

The results highlight the distinct geographical segmentation of metropolitan condominium markets, which provides useful information to local policymakers, financial institutions, real estate developers and real estate portfolio managers. The limitations of the research are the identification of the underlying sources for the convergence clubs identified due to the availability of monthly data for a number of potential variables.

The absence of overall convergence in condominium prices, but the emergence of distinct convergence clubs that reflects the geographical segmentation of metropolitan condominium markets raises the potential for portfolio diversification.

Unlike previous studies that have focused on single-family housing, this is the first study to examine the convergence of metropolitan area condominium prices.

This paper aims to examine the convergence pattern of residential house prices in a panel of 55 major cities in Turkey over the period between 2010 and 2018 and to investigate the determinants of convergence club formations.

The authors applied the log t-test to identify the convergence clubs and estimated ordered logit model to determine the key drivers.

The results suggest that there are five convergence clubs and confirm the heterogeneity of the Turkish housing market. Istanbul, the commercial capital, and Mugla, an attractive tourist destination, are at the top of the housing market and followed by the cities located in the western part, particularly along the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts of Turkey. Moreover, the ordered logit model results point out that the differences in employment rate, climate, population density and having a metropolitan municipality play a significant role in determining convergence club membership.

Large-scale policy measures aiming to increase employment opportunities in rural cities of central and eastern provinces and providing lower land prices and property taxes in the metropolitan cities of Turkey can help mitigate some of the divergence in the house prices across cities.

The novelty of this study lies in employing a new data set at the city level containing 55 cities in Turkey, which is by far the largest in terms of city coverage among emerging market economies to implement the log t-test. It also contributes to the literature on city-specific determinants of convergence club formation in the case of an emerging economy.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the food price inflation convergence across countries and regions. This study aims to identify the key drivers for food price inflation across countries and regions.

We test whether the international food price inflations are converging over time using the log t convergence test and clustering analysis. These inflation data are collected from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

The test results suggest that there is little evidence of overall convergence. Then we utilize a clustering algorithm and the results support that there is strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs. In addition, we examine the transition path of the various convergence and find that social stability regulation together with economic conditions are important determinants of convergence club membership.

First off, local conflict and economic environment result in food supply and prices, but this study is limited to the dynamics of prices.

Food prices inflations are not converging to single common price inflation, but there exist subgroups of countries or regions within which food price inflation tends to converge. These groupings tend to be related to the economic development and social stability of countries and regions.

The authors believe that any analysis of food price inflations that does not consider the political environment and economic conditions dynamics will likely be omitting important components of food price dynamics.

This study uses a unique data set covering 198 countries and regions and provides a comprehensive analysis of international food price inflation convergence identifying the key drivers of convergence club membership.

This study examines whether the law of one price (LOP) or price convergence holds during the COVID-19 pandemic for essential food items in India.

The authors use the daily retail price data of 22 essential food items from 103 Indian markets for two years (2019 as pre-COVID and 2020 as COVID period). Pesaran's (2007) second-generation panel unit-root test has been used to examine the price convergence of essential food commodities across various markets of different zones in the pre-COVID and COVID periods.

The authors find a tendency toward the convergence of prices across the spatially segregated markets for essential products. But, during the COVID period, there is a weak or no convergence of prices for essential food items. Hence, the LOP does not hold during the pandemic, indicating massive price deviations for food items across Indian markets. This has severe implications for food security as enormous price increases in some markets have been evidenced during the pandemic.

The study calls for immediate policy adoption to restore the disrupted supply chain of essential food items. Along with that, the public authority should strictly prohibit black marketing and unlawful hoarding of essential food items. In addition, farmers should be provided direct cash benefits for restoring their farming activities.

This paper is first study to examine that hypothesis of LOP in the context of COVID crisis.

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether futures markets play a dominant role in the price discovery process. The rate of convergence of information from one market to another is analyzed to infer the efficiency of futures as an effective hedging tool.

The paper uses a two‐regime threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) and a two‐regime threshold autoregression for six commodities. The regimes (or states) are defined around the expiration week of the futures contract.

This paper finds evidence for price discovery process happening in the futures market in five out of six commodities. However, the rate of convergence of information is slow, particularly in the non‐expiration weeks. For copper, gold and silver, the rate of convergence is almost instantaneous during the expiration week of the futures contract affirming the utility of futures contracts as an effective hedging tool. In case of chickpeas, nickel and rubber the convergence worsens during the expiration week indicating the non‐usability of futures contract for hedging.

This paper extends the framework developed by Garbade et al. by superimposing a two‐regime TVAR model to quantify the price discovery process. It is the first paper to analyze the differential impact of price discovery and convergence during expiration week (compared to non‐expiration weeks) for the Indian commodities market.

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the convergence hypothesis of House Price Index (HPI) in the case of 18 major Indian cities for the period 2014–2019.

To attain the authors main goal, this study applies a clustering algorithm advanced by Phillips and Sul. This test creates a club of convergence based on the growth of the cities in terms of HPI.

The study findings show the existence of two convergence clubs and one non-convergent group. Club 1 includes the cities with high HPI growth, whereas club 2 comprises of cities with least HPI growth. Cities belonging to the non-convergent group are neither converging nor diverging.

This study findings will benefit home buyers, sellers, investors, regulators and policymakers interested in the dynamic interlinkages of house price (HP) among Indian cities.

The majority of the studies are conducted in the case of China at the province or city levels. Furthermore, in the case of India, none of the studies has investigated the HP club convergence across Indian cities. Therefore, the present study fills this research gap by examining the HP club convergence across Indian cities.

This paper aims to propose that a Neave-Worthington Match Test for Ordered Alternatives is a simple, non-parametric test that can be used to consider Gibrat’s law. Whether the law, that states that the proportional rate of growth is independent of absolute size, is supported by regional house price growth rates is considered. The Match Test is further used to test the applicability of beta-convergence and dual economy models to a house price context.

The Match Test relates an actual rank order with an expected one. Gibrat’s law implies house price growth rates are independent of the absolute price levels. Beta-convergence posits that growth rates are inversely related to the initial price level. With a divergent system, there is a direct relationship between size-order and growth rates. As such, the Match Test is used to test alternative models of size-growth relationship.

Rather than convergence, there is a tendency to diverge across the UK, but not in Eire. That said, the size of growth shocks is related to price level on the upswing of a price cycle, but not in the down. Assigning the high-priced regions of the two islands into core and the rest into a periphery, total matching is dominated by the capital cities’ growth. The sigma-convergence observed in British house prices is likely to be associated with slower beta-divergence, not a convergent system. The law of Gibrat is not found to apply in a regional house price context.

This work only covers two countries and nineteen regions. Gibrat’s law in regional house prices may be better examined using a multi-country analysis.

As the law of Gibrat is not found to apply in a regional house price context and core-regions appearing to dislocated, this has interesting implications for growth trend analysis and the claim of cointegration, which should be explored further. In particular, the level-growth relationship in the cyclical price upswing points to a ratcheting of differentials between high and low house price regions. The common trends in the long run may result from corrective periodic crashes. Not an ideal mechanism for policymakers.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper makes a novel use of the Neave-Worthington test in the realm of regional convergence-divergence and in the first consideration of the law of Gibrat in a house price context across two countries.

Prediction markets are techniques to aggregate dispersed public opinions via market mechanisms to predict uncertain future events’ outcome. Many experiments have shown that prediction markets outperform other traditional forecasting methods in terms of accuracy. Logarithmic market scoring rules (LMSR) is one of the most simple and widely used market mechanisms; however, market makers have to confront crucial design decisions including the setting of the parameter “b” or the “liquidity parameter” in the price functions. As the liquidity parameter has significant effects on the market performance, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive basis for the setting of the parameter.

The analyses include the effects of the liquidity parameter on the forecast standard error and the amount of time for the market price to converge to the true value. These experiments use artificial prediction markets, the proposed simulation models that mimic real prediction markets.

The simulation results indicate that prediction market’s forecast standard error decreases as the value of the liquidity parameter increases. Moreover, for any given number of traders in the market, there exists an optimal liquidity parameter value that yields appropriate price adaptability and leads to the fastest price convergence.

Understanding these tradeoffs, the market makers can effectively determine the liquidity parameter value under various objectives on the standard error, the time to convergence and cost.