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This study aims to develop a methodology for predicting the resilience of individual firms to economic crisis, using historical government data to optimize one of the most important and costly interventions that governments undertake, the huge economic stimulus programs that governments implement for mitigating the consequences of economic crises, by making them more focused on the less resilient and more vulnerable firms to the crisis, which have the highest need for government assistance and support.

The authors are leveraging existing firm-level data for economic crisis periods from government agencies having competencies/responsibilities in the domain of economy, such as Ministries of Finance and Statistical Authorities, to construct prediction models of the resilience of individual firms to the economic crisis based on firms’ characteristics (such as human resources, technology, strategies, processes and structure), using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques from the area of machine learning (ML).

The methodology has been applied using data from the Greek Ministry of Finance and Statistical Authority about 363 firms for the Greek economic crisis period 2009–2014 and has provided a satisfactory prediction of a measure of the resilience of individual firms to an economic crisis.

The authors’ study opens up new research directions concerning the exploitation of AI/ML in government for a critical government activity/intervention of high importance that mobilizes/spends huge financial resources. The main limitation is that the abovementioned first application of the proposed methodology has been based on a rather small data set from a single national context (Greece), so it is necessary to proceed to further application of this methodology using larger data sets and different national contexts.

The proposed methodology enables government agencies responsible for the implementation of such economic stimulus programs to proceed to radical transformations of them by predicting the resilience to economic crisis of the firms applying for government assistance and then directing/focusing the scarce available financial resources to/on the ones predicted to be more vulnerable, increasing substantially the effectiveness of these programs and the economic/social value they generate.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first application of AI/ML in government that leverages existing data for economic crisis periods to optimize and increase the effectiveness of the largest and most important and costly economic intervention that governments repeatedly have to make: the economic stimulus programs for mitigating the consequences of economic crises.

Project portfolio risk (PPR) management plays an important role in promoting the smooth implementation of a project portfolio (PP). Accurate PPR prediction helps managers cope with risks timely in complicated PP environments. However, studies on accurate PPR impact degree prediction, which consists of both risk occurrence probabilities and risk impact consequences considering project interactions, are limited. This study aims to model PPR prediction and expand PPR prediction tools.

In this study, the authors build a PPR prediction model based on a genetic algorithm and back-propagation neural network (GA-BPNN) integrated with entropy-trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then, the authors verify the proposed model with real data and obtain PPR impact degrees.

The test results indicate that the proposed method achieves an average absolute error of 0.002 and an average prediction accuracy rate of 97.8%. The former is reduced by 0.038, while the latter is improved by 32.1% when compared with the results of the original BPNN model. Finally, the authors conduct an index sensitivity analysis for identifying critical risks to effectively control them.

This study develops a hybrid PPR prediction model that integrates a GA-BPNN with entropy-trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The authors use this model to predict PPR impact degrees, which consist of both risk occurrence probabilities and risk impact consequences considering project interactions. The results provide insights into PPR management.

Despite the present focus on improving the resilience of homes to flooding in UK flood risk management policy and strategy, a general measurement framework for determining levels of flood resilience in UK homes does not exist. In light of this, the aim of this study was to develop a means to evaluate the levels of resilience in flood-prone homes from the perspective of homeowners'.

A quantitative research methodology was employed, with empirical data obtained through a postal survey of homeowners who had experienced flooding. The responses received were then analysed using a combination of statistical techniques including agreement/reliability tests and multiple regression to develop a model of flood resilience.

A predictive model was developed that allows the resilience of a property to be quantified and measured as perceived by homeowners. The findings indicate that the main factors found to influence the level of flood resilience were: property type (PT), presence of cellar/basement (C/B), property wall type (PWT), property ground floor type (PGFT), kitchen unit type (KU), flood experience (FE), flood source (FS) and flood risk level (FRL).

The resulting model provides unique insights into resilience levels to the benefit of a range of stakeholders including policy makers (such as Defra/Environment Agency), Local Authority flood teams, property professionals, housing associations and homeowners. As a result, homeowners will be in a better position to determine which interventions should be prioritised to ensure better flood protection.

This is the first study of its kind to have rigorously quantified the level of flood resilience for individual homes. This study has quantified the effectiveness of individual resilience measures to derive the first reliable means to measure the overall levels of resilience at the individual property level. This is regarded as a significant contribution to the study of flood risk management through the quantification of resilience within individual UK homes, enabling the prioritisation of interventions and the overall monitoring of resilience.

This study aims to explore the pandemic's opportunities for enhancing the environmental practices of the food and beverages green supply chains and its effect on the supply chains' viability by exploring the relationship between fear and uncertainty of COVID-19, food and beverages green supply chain management (F&B-GSCM) and supply chains’ viability based on the two dimensions (robustness and resilience) and examine the moderating effect of innovative technology adoption like big data analysis (BDA) capabilities and blockchain technologies (BCT) on this relationship.

This study adopted partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) on a sample of 362 F&B small and medium enterprises (SMEs)’ managers in the Egyptian market for data analysis and hypothesis testing.

The empirical results show that the fear and uncertainty of the pandemic have a significant positive effect on green supply chain management (GSCM). Also, BDA moderates the relationship between fear and uncertainty of COVID-19 and GSCM. However, BCT do not moderate that relationship. Similarly, GSCM positively affects supply chain viability dimensions (robustness and resilience). In addition, F&B-GSCM significantly mediates the relationship between fear and uncertainty of COVID-19 and supply chain viability dimensions (robustness and resilience).

Food and beverages (F&B) managers could develop a consistent strategy for applying BCT and BDA to provide clear information and focus on their procedures to meet their stakeholders' needs during COVID-19. Governments and managers should develop a consistent strategy to apply food and beverages supply chains (F&B SCs)' green practices to achieve F&B SCs' resilience and robustness, especially during the pandemic.

The Egyptian F&B SCs have been linked directly with many European countries as a main source of many basic food and agriculture products, which have been affected lately by the pandemic. Based on the “social-cognitive,” “stakeholder” and “resource-based view” theories, this study sheds light on the optimistic side of the COVID-19 pandemic, as it also brings the concepts of F&B-GSCM, SC resilience, SC robustness and innovative technologies back into the light, which helps in solving F&B SC issues and helps to achieve their viability.

Historical bazaars, a huge treasure of Iranian culture, art and economy, are places for social capital development. Un-supervised management in past decades has led to the demolition and change of historical bazaars and negligence of its different aspects. The present research aims to investigate the resilience of historical bazaars preserving their identity and different developments.

The artificial neural network (ANN) has been applied to investigate the resilience of historical bazaars. This model consists of three main networks for evaluating the resilience of historical networks in terms of adaptability, variability and reactivity.

The ANN proposed to evaluate the resilience of historic bazaars based on the mentioned factors is efficient. By calculating mean squared error (MSE), the model accuracy for evaluating adaptability, variability and reactivity were obtained at 7.62e-25, 2.91e-24 and 1.51e-24. The correlation coefficient was obtained at a significance level of 99%. This indicates the considerable effectiveness of the artificial intelligence model in modeling and predicting the qualitative properties of historical bazaars resilience.

This paper clarifies indexes and components of resilience in terms of adaptability, variability and reactivity. Then, the ANN model is obtained with the least error and very high accuracy that predict the resilience of historical bazaars.

This study aims to develop and test multivariable psychosocial prediction models of perceived post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and complex post-traumatic stress disorder (CPTSD) symptoms development among trauma-exposed Ukrainian adults (n = 761) after 1.5 years of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This research was designed as a survey in line with the methodology of “Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis” checklist. The survey included a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics and specifics of trauma exposure, as well as validated self-reported inventories: The International Trauma Questionnaire, Acceptance and Action Questionnaire – version 2, Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale-10 and the Modified BBC Subjective Well-being Scale.

Regression analysis revealed different prediction models for PTSD and CPTSD symptoms, explaining 18.4% and 41.4% of their variance with five and eight predictors, respectively. Four variables were similar in predicting PTSD and CPTSD: war-relatedness of trauma, living with a friend, perceived physical health and regret for the past. War-relatedness of trauma the respondents were exposed to was among the strongest predictors for PTSD and CPTSD severity. However, living with a friend was almost equally strong in mitigating these mental consequences. Regret for past and lowly rated physical health were assessed as relatively weaker but statistically significant predictors in this study.

Upon the original theoretical framework, two psychosocial prediction models were developed for PTSD and CPTSD symptoms in a non-clinical sample of trauma-exposed Ukrainian adults.

The authors examine the effect of supply chain resilience (SCR) on supply chain performance (SCP) while considering the moderating effect of supply chain network complexity (SCNC) on the nexus between SCR and SCP of manufacturing firms.

The quantitative research approach and explanatory research design were utilised for this study. A sample of 345 manufacturing firms in the Accra metropolis was drawn. The partial least square structural equation modelling was employed.

Findings from the study revealed that SCR has a significant positive effect on SCP. However, SCNC had a significant negative moderating effect on the relationship between SCR and SCP.

The authors advocate that manufacturing firms are prone to stronger impact from complex networks that mitigate the already existing positive relationship between SCR and SCP and is dependent on the context in which the study is executed, and the extent to which resilience strategies are robust. Thus, the SCNC has an adverse impact on how well partners interact and how well the supply chain functions.

This is the first study that quantitatively investigates the SCR impact on SCP in the presence of SCNC of manufacturing firms in the context of a developing economy. The study redefines SCNC from earlier studies.

This study aims to examine the resilience of Peruvian startups during the COVID-19 pandemic using a framework proposed by Lengnick-Hall et al. (2011), in which resilience impacts organizational strengthening. The goal is to identify those characteristics that allowed certain startups to discover growth opportunities amid this crisis.

This study analyzed human, social and entrepreneurial capital variables in Peruvian startups using data from a survey conducted in July 2020. Binary logistic regression was used to determine which organizational resources increased the probability of identifying growth opportunities during the pandemic.

The findings suggest that human capabilities become secondary in extreme crises such as pandemics. Critical factors for startup resilience include commercial partnerships with established firms, founders’ capital investment, business maturity and adoption of advanced digital technologies.

This research provides unique insights into startup resilience and growth in Peru during the COVID-19 crisis. The authors observed that business growth during this period was largely unpredictable, with less emphasis on human capabilities. The study highlights the importance of external factors in resilience, the role of collaboration between established firms, the integration of advanced digital technologies and the influence of founders’ investments and business maturity in navigating difficult times.

Este estudio examina la resiliencia de las startups peruanas durante la pandemia de COVID-19 utilizando un marco propuesto por Lengnick-Hall et al. (2011), en el que la resiliencia tiene un efecto en el fortalecimiento de las organizaciones. Su objetivo es identificar las características que permitieron a ciertas startups descubrir oportunidades de crecimiento en medio de esta crisis.

Analizamos variables de capital humano, social y empresarial en startups peruanas utilizando datos de una encuesta realizada en julio de 2020. Se utilizó regresión logística binaria para determinar qué recursos organizativos incrementaban la probabilidad de identificar oportunidades de crecimiento durante la pandemia.

Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que las capacidades humanas pasan a un segundo plano en crisis extremas como las pandemias. Los factores críticos para la resiliencia de las startups incluyen las asociaciones comerciales con empresas establecidas, la inversión de capital de los fundadores, la madurez empresarial y la adopción de tecnologías digitales avanzadas.

Esta investigación proporciona una visión única sobre la resiliencia y el crecimiento de las startups en Perú durante la crisis COVID-19. Observamos que el crecimiento empresarial durante este período fue en gran medida impredecible, con menos énfasis en las capacidades humanas. El estudio subraya la importancia de los factores externos en la resiliencia, el papel de la colaboración con las empresas establecidas, la integración de tecnologías digitales avanzadas, la influencia de las inversiones de los fundadores y la madurez empresarial para navegar en tiempos difíciles.

Este estudo examina a resiliência das startups peruanas durante a pandemia da COVID-19 usando uma abordagem proposta por Lengnick-Hall et al. (2011), na qual a resiliência tem um efeito fortalecedor nas organizações. Seu objetivo é identificar as características que permitiram que determinadas startups descobrissem oportunidades de crescimento em meio a essa crise.

Analisamos variáveis de capital humano, social e empresarial em start-ups peruanas usando dados de uma pesquisa realizada em julho de 2020. A regressão logística binária foi usada para determinar quais recursos organizacionais aumentaram a probabilidade de identificar oportunidades de crescimento durante a pandemia.

Nossas análises sugerem que as capacidades humanas se tornam secundárias em crises extremas, como as pandemias. Os fatores essenciais para a resiliência das startups incluem parcerias comerciais com empresas estabelecidas, investimento de capital dos fundadores, maturidade dos negócios e adoção de tecnologias digitais avançadas.

Esta pesquisa fornece informações exclusivas sobre a resiliência e o crescimento de startups no Peru durante a crise da COVID-19. Observamos que o crescimento das empresas durante esse período foi amplamente imprevisível, com menos ênfase nas capacidades humanas. O estudo destaca a importância de fatores externos na resiliência, o papel da colaboração com empresas estabelecidas, a integração de tecnologias digitais avançadas e a influência dos investimentos dos fundadores e da maturidade dos negócios na superação de tempos difíceis.

This study aims to develop and test a multivariable psychosocial prediction model of subjective well-being in Ukrainian adults (n = 1,248) 1.5 years after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The research design followed the “Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis” checklist. The online survey combined a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics and specifics of living in wartime, as well as validated self-reported inventories: The Modified BBC Subjective Well-being Scale, Acceptance and Action Questionnaire – Version 2 and Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale-10.

The initially developed model was tested through regression analysis, which revealed nine variables as predictors of the subjective well-being scores within the sample, explaining 49.3% of its variance. Among them, the strongest were living with a friend and receiving mental health care systematically. They were almost twice as influential as forced displacement abroad and trauma exposure, which predicted lower well-being, and living with a spouse, which forecasted higher well-being scores. Two resilience subscales – adjustment and restoring and resistance – as predictors of better well-being and perceived unsuccess in life and age as predictors of lower well-being were relatively weaker but statistically significant.

The obtained results support the previous evidence on the essential role of accessible mental health services and social support in times of war, as well as the deteriorative effect of trauma exposure and forcible taking refuge on subjective well-being.

This study aims to introduce a dynamic perspective of tourism resilience by analyzing tourism demand in Spain during the 2020 and 2021 summers in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study uses regression and Lasso-type methods to demonstrate a great explanatory capacity of past determinants to explain the tourism demand of the Spanish provinces.

Results show how the previous specialization of the domestic market, the density and the geographic location related to the type of product are behind the bulk of the territorial differences in demand resilience, although in 2021 there has been a process of adaptation to the new context.

This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of tourist behavior and tourism destination management by introducing the concept of resilience dynamics of destinations.

The results are useful, on the one hand, for tourist destinations to understand the different stages of recovery from a shock, and on the other hand, to go in deep in consumer behavior after a shock.

These findings represent a paradigm shift in the static conception of resilience in tourism.

本文通过分析 2020 年和 2021 年夏季 COVID-19 大流行背景下西班牙的旅游需求, 介绍了旅游业复原力的动态视角。

我们使用回归和套索型方法来证明过去的决定因素解释西班牙各省旅游需求的能力。

我们的结果表明, 尽管 2021 年出现了一个适应新环境的过程, 但之前国内市场的专业化、密度以及提供的产品的位置相关类型是造成需求弹性的大部分地域差异的原因。

这些发现代表了旅游业复原力静态概念的范式转变。

本研究通过引入目的地特定弹性动态的概念, 有助于对游客行为和旅游目的地管理的理论理解。

一方面, 研究结果有助于旅游目的地了解从冲击中恢复的不同阶段, 另一方面有助于探索冲击后的消费者行为。

Este artículo presenta una perspectiva dinámica sobre la resiliencia del turismo mediante el análisis de la demanda turística en España durante los veranos de 2020 y 2021 en el contexto de la pandemia de COVID-19.

Utilizamos métodos de regresión y tipo Lasso para demostrar la capacidad de los determinantes pasados para explicar la demanda turística en las provincias españolas.

Nuestros resultados muestran cómo la especialización previa del mercado interno, la densidad y el tipo de producto ofrecido relacionado con la ubicación están detrás del grueso de las diferencias territoriales en la resiliencia de la demanda, aunque en 2021 hubo un proceso de adaptación al nuevo contexto.

Estos hallazgos representan un cambio de paradigma en la concepción estática de la resiliencia en el turismo.

Este estudio contribuye a la comprensión teórica de los comportamientos turísticos y la gestión de los destinos turísticos al introducir el concepto de dinámica de resiliencia específica del destino.

Por un lado, los resultados son útiles para que los destinos turísticos comprendan las diferentes etapas de recuperación de un shock y, por otro lado, para explorar el comportamiento del consumidor después de un shock.

Graphical abstract: The evaluation of the vulnerability of tourism.