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Disasters and armed conflict often co-occur, but does that imply that disasters trigger or fuel conflict? In the small but growing body of literature attempting to answer this question, divergent findings indicate the complex and contextual nature of a potential answer to this question. The purpose of this study is to contribute a robust cross-country analysis of the co-occurrence of disaster and conflict, with a particular focus on the potential role played by disaster.

Grounded in a theoretical model of disaster–conflict co-occurrence, this study merges data from 163 countries between 1990 and 2017 on armed conflict, disasters and relevant control variables (low human development, weak democratic institutions, natural resource dependence and large population size/density).

The main results of this study show that, despite a sharp increase in the co-occurrence of disasters and armed conflict over time, disasters do not appear to have a direct statistically significant relation with the occurrence of armed conflict. This result contributes to the understanding of disasters and conflicts as indirectly related via co-creation mechanisms and other factors.

This study is a novel contribution, as it provides a fresh analysis with updated data and includes different control variables that allow for a significant contribution to the field.

Faced with contradictory outcomes in empirical studies on the relation between democracy and income inequality, this paper attempts to provide empirical relations between democracy and income inequality. In particular, the authors seek to find if any curvilinear relation exists as in the Kuznets hypothesis.

Given elusiveness in empirical relations, the authors will consider several specifications using different estimation methods such as ordinary least squares (OLS), panel data estimation and performing statistical tests to determine the best specification for the relation between income inequality and democracy. Once the authors choose the specification, then the authors will apply this specification to the different groups of data to find any meaningful implications.

Using the unbalanced panel of 136 countries spanning from 1980 to 2018, the authors found an inverse U-shaped relation, called a political Kuznets curve – income inequality increases first and then decreases later as more democracy is achieved. By quantifying the curve, the authors find that the direct impact of democracy on income inequality is small and that the incremental impact of democracy on income inequality is smaller in a semi-democracy while relatively larger in a full democracy and autocracy.

From the study’s findings, the following policy implications can be considered. First, any change in income inequality caused by democratization should not be concerning as the impact of democracy on income inequality is measured to be very small. Second, the largest factor reducing income inequality is real GDP per capita. Third, the authors find that an impact of government expenditure on income inequality is also inversely U-shaped.

This paper proposes a new multi-dimensional financial inclusion index.

The authors employ two-stage principal component analysis (PCA) and aggregating indicators of availability, access and use. The paper first assesses the cross-country variations in the index and analyses trends over time for a sample of countries members of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) from 2010–2018. Second, it investigates factors that could explain the level of financial inclusion across countries.

The financial inclusion index shows a downward trend for the full sample over the period under investigation; however when splitting the sample by income group, it appears that high- and middle–income countries did not register the same trend. When examining the determinants of financial inclusion for the UfM countries, the authors find that macroeconomic, social and governance factors, as well as banking conditions, matter. Policy-makers in low- and middle-income economies should consider the importance of digital financial inclusion, which is substituting the role to traditional banking system, to close the gap and accelerate its development.

First, the authors provide a new measure of financial inclusion using a three-dimensional index: availability, access and use, for which weights are assigned using PCA. It uses data available for the UfM sample by combining data from different databases in order to include most indicators considered in the literature, as the majority of studies only use single measures (number of bank branches, ownership of a bank account, ratio of credits or deposits to gross domestic product [GDP], etc.). Second, by focussing on UfM countries, the study covers a region that includes both large developed and small developing economies that are connected via financial and trade ties, whilst previous studies generally give global evidence from an international sample with little or no economic ties. Third, splitting the sample by country income groups, the paper presents a more comprehensive representation of the cross-country variation in financial inclusion levels between high- and middle-income economies for this region.

This paper investigates whether democracy plays a mediating role in the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

The empirical analysis is conducted using fixed effects and system GMM (Generalised Method of Moments) on a panel of 38 Sub-Saharan African countries covering the period of 1990–2018.

The results find that FDI has no direct effect on inequality whereas democracy reduces inequality directly in both the short run and the long run. The sensitivity analyses find that democracy improves equality regardless of the magnitude of FDI, resource endowment or democratic deepening whereas FDI only reduces inequality once a moderate level of democracy has been achieved.

The results discussed above thus have four policy implications. First, these results show that although democracy has inequality reducing benefits, SSA is unlikely to significantly reduce inequality unless the region purposefully diversifies its trade and FDI away from natural resources. Second, the region should continue to expand credit access to reduce inequality and attract FDI. Third, policymakers should undertake reforms that will reduce youth inequality. Lastly, the region should focus on long-run democratic reforms rather than on short-run democratization to improve governance and investor confidence.

Although there are existing studies that examine the association between FDI and inequality, FDI and democracy and democracy and inequality, this is the first study to explicitly examine the effect of democracy on the association between FDI and inequality in SSA, and the first study to separately consider the possible varied effects of contemporaneous democratization versus the long-run accumulation of democratic capital. In addition, rather than measure inequality by income alone, this study uses the more appropriate Human Development Index to account for SSA's sociological, education and income disparities.

The aim of this paper is to document the effect of democracy on the financing constraints faced by private firms.

This paper uses the data from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys to test the arguments presented in this paper in a large sample of private firms from 92 developing countries.

The results show that firms headquartered in more democratic countries have better access to finance than firms headquartered in less democratic countries. The findings are robust to the comprehensive inclusion of relevant controls and to a number of sensitivity tests. The authors' findings highlight an important channel through which democracy can affect the business environment of a country.

The authors believe that this paper is an initial attempt to document the effect of democracy on the financing constraints faced by private firms.

A popular convention in the political-economy literature is that causality runs from democracy to economic growth. That thinking has continued to evoke significant debates among scholars. This study aims to propose a new research experiment by investigating whether macroeconomic variables cause democratisation.

The study uses a panel data set of 48 carefully selected economies in Sub-Saharan Africa spanning 1991 to 2020 and uses the PVAR system generalised method of moment (GMM) approach.

With the application of three macroeconomic indicators: economic growth, full employment and balance of payment equilibrium, the study suggests that economic growth has a negative implication on the democratisation process and that the incentives that increase national income provide in the global South enable autocratic rulers to impede democratic growth. The Granger causality test demonstrates a unidirectional effect from economic growth to democracy. The eigenvalue stability condition, impulse response function and forecast-error variance decomposition all confirmed the validity of the findings with the PVAR system GMM. Finally, the study proposed policy and theoretical implications for the political stakeholders.

Robust development of economic institutions (particularly the anti-corruption and rule of law) in the global South is required to tame the potential for the state actors to turn public resources into personal use to further their parochial political interest in the form of perpetuating themselves in office which negates the ideals of democracy and social norms. Strong institutions could prevent the misuse of national income and enhance a good quality of life for the citizenry, making them grow confidence in the democratisation process.

The research paper makes an insightful contributions from the methodological perspective and the sampling perspective. The author uses a new research method, the PVAR system GMM becoming the first attempt of such a method to be applied in determining the causal effects of macroeconomic variables on democracy in the literature. Another relevant contribution of the study relates to the sample technique of selecting economies from the Sub-Saharan Africa with notable weak or slow democratisation process.

This paper investigates the relationship between remittances, institutional quality and investment in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using data from 2004 to 2018.

The two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator is the main methodology used, while the system generalized method of moments (Sys-GMM) technique is employed to test the robustness of the results.

The results show a positive and significant impact of remittances on investment in SSA. The findings further reveal a substitutional linkage between remittances and institutions in promoting investment. In essence, remittances serve as investment capital in countries with poor institutions. The results also show that the marginal significance of remittances as a source of funds for investment decreases in countries with well-developed institutions.

The sample excludes some of the SSA countries due to the unavailability of data.

In the face of current institutional weaknesses, there is a need for SSA countries to prioritize policies that encourage the effective use of remittances for business activities. Furthermore, SSA countries must improve their economic freedom and democratic practices by reducing government size, protecting property rights, and promoting respect for political and civil rights.

This is the first study to analyze the relationship between remittances, institutional quality and investment in SSA. It also provides a novel framework for future research on the remittance–investment nexus.

The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the shadow economy on three sustainable development indicators while considering the moderating effect of the governance quality, and to highlight the non-linearity of the considered relationship.

A sample of 82 countries covering the period from 1996 to 2017. The dynamic first-differenced generalized method of moments (FD-GMM) panel threshold model is implemented to control for non-linearity.

The shadow economy hinders sustainable development in countries with low-governance quality, while the opposite result holds in countries with high-governance quality. The critical thresholds triggering the switch from one regime to another vary across the sustainable development indicators. Boosting growth requires enhancing the legal system and the economic dimension of governance, while promoting environmental quality requires the implementation and enforcement of specific environment-friendly regulations.

The study addresses non-linearity and the moderating effect of governance quality. The use of six governance indicators allows to gauge the ability of each governance dimension to curb the negative effects of the shadow economy. Considering the three objectives of sustainable development allows to identify specific policy recommendations for each of them.

This study aims to investigate the effects of mineral rents, conflict and population growth on countries' growth, with a specific interest in 13 selected economies in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper uses a combination of research methods: the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), the fixed effect and the system generalized method of moment (GMM). The consistent estimator (system GMM), which provides the paper's empirical findings, remedies the inherent endogeneity bias in the model formulation. The utilized panel dataset for the study spans from 1980 to 2022.

The study suggests that mineral rents positively affect countries' growth by about 0.407 percentage points in the short run. The study further demonstrates the long-run negative impacts of population growth rates and prevalence of civil war on economic growth. The empirical work of the study reveals that an increase in the number of international borders within the group promotes mineral conflicts, which impedes economic growth. Evidence from the specification tests performed in the study confirmed the validity of the empirical results.

Mineral rents, if well managed and conditioned on good institutions, are a blessing to an economy, contrary to the assumptions that mineral resources are a curse. The utilization of mineral rents in Sub-Saharan Africa for economic growth depends on several factors, notably the level of mineral conflicts, population growth rates, institutional factors and the ability to contain civil war, among others.

This study is the first attempt in the post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) era to revisit the investigation of the impacts of mineral rents, conflict and population growth rates on the countries' growth while controlling for the potential implications of the qualities of institutions. One of the significant contributions of the study is the identification of high population growth rates as one of the primary drivers of mineral conflicts that impede economic growth in the states with enormous mineral deposits in Sub-Saharan Africa. The crucial inference drawn from the study is that mineral rents positively impact countries' growth, even with inherent institutional challenges, although the results could be better with good institutions.

This study aims to investigate the implications of natural gas rents and institutions as co-drivers of economic growth, focusing on the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) with panel data between 2001 and 2021.

This research paper uses a specialised two stage estimator, the panel instrumental variable technique (panel IV), which takes care of the potential endogeneity issues in the model.

The findings show that natural gas rent significantly impacts the economic growth of the GECF. On average, natural gas rent increases the sample’s growth rate by about 2.634% percentage points in the short run. The result indicates that the qualities of institutions (political and economic) have a significant positive long-term effect on the economies of the GECF. In addition, the study’s energy price volatility positively correlates with the countries’ growth.

There might be a need to investigate the effects of natural gas rents and institutions as co-growth drivers in each country within the GECF. The likelihood exists that the impact of natural gas rents and institutions on economic growth at the country’s level may differ from the outcome of such an experiment on the group level. Because of space and time limitations, this study could not carry out the specific country’s investigation of natural gas rents and institutions as a co-growth driver. That limitation may constitute further study to advance this study to a new height.

With good institutions, natural gas rent is likely to be an alternative growth driver for some economies that rely on fossil fuels like oil as a growth driver. By extension, the GECF has the potential to rival Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the global energy market, particularly in achieving Sustainable Development Goal number seven. In essence, evidence in this study suggests that natural gas rent has long-term positive effects on the growth of the GECF, conditioned on good institutions. Moreover, the drive of global energy consumption towards sustainable energy usage is an economic blessing for the GECF. By extension, the demand for natural gas would continue to rise, creating opportunities to improve natural gas rents. By implication, the GECF would continue to benefit from the pursuit of sustainability as the world shifts towards energy consumption with less CO₂.

Firstly, this study models the qualities of institutions for the GECF. Secondly, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to examine natural gas rents and the qualities of institutions as co-determinants of economic growth among the GECF (a potential cartel).