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Travel behaviour depends on the travellers' perception of the trip characteristics. The uncertainty of the journey time is one of the determinants of the choice. Studies of decision behaviour in uncertain conditions show the limited validity of the common assumptions in traffic models. Decision making under uncertainty has to be considered as a contingent process, depending on the objectives and conditions with which the choice is made. Expected utility is one of the many possible criteria used by people to decide. There is a discrepancy between the objective and subjective value of this concept. This is due to the bias with respect to the perception of very likely and very unlikely events. In many cases the expected utility is a less applicable objective, e.g. because people want to arrive before a certain deadline and maximize the probability to achieve that. The fact that probabilities of travel times have to be learned from experiences introduces a dynamic character of choice behaviour.

Most of the reported properties of decision-making under uncertainty still have to be verified for travel behaviour.

There are many cases where top management either missed or almost missed detecting or interpreting a major change in the environment that might have led them to a major setback. We propose a model of sensing in hierarchical organizations that describes a sequence of sensing and detecting changes in the environment, followed by successive stages of perception, interpretation, and finally action. We model an organization as a complex signal detection system, where the flow of information among members of the organization is constrained by two elements: the structure of the organization, which is defined by who reports to whom, and the attentional and cognitive limitations of the individuals. We infer the probability of sensing over time for different levels of environmental shocks and different organizational structures. By focusing on the (un)reliability of sensing and the information flow in different organizational structures, we are able to provide preliminary analysis of the trade-offs among cognitive limitations, speed of detection, modes of information flow, and the resulting performance measure of delay, false-alarms, and true detections.

This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking policy reaction function within a real-time framework. In order to compare observed and predicted policy behavior, the chapter estimates Actual and Perceived regime switching Taylor Rules for the ECB. The former is based on the refi rate set by the Governing Council while the latter relies on the professional point forecasts of the refi rate performed by a large investment bank before the upcoming policy rate decision. The empirical evidence shows that the Central Bank’s main policy rate has switched between two regimes: in the first one the Taylor Principle is satisfied and the ECB stabilizes the economic outlook, while in the second regime the Central Bank cuts rates more aggressively and puts a higher emphasis on stabilizing real output growth expectations. Second, the results point out that the professional forecasters have broadly well predicted the actual policy regimes. The estimation results are also robust to using consensus forecasts of inflation and real output growth. The empirical evidence from the augmented Taylor Rules shows that the Central Bank has most likely not responded to the growth rates of M3 and the nominal effective exchange rate and the estimated regimes are robust to including these additional variables in the regressions. Finally, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers the policy rate has switched to a crisis regime as the ECB has focused on preventing a further decline in economic activity and on securing the stability of the financial system.

Moral intensity is the degree of feeling we have about the consequences of moral choices, similar, for example, to those perceived for crimes, from petty larceny to murder. Moral intensity is thought to increase moral sensitivity and judgment. Because the accounting professions require members to respond to accounting fraud with more sensitivity and intensity, we examine this response in 220 professional accountants (mostly Certified Public Accountants) under a controlled experiment using two different cases. We examine the first three parts of the Rest (1986) model including ethical evaluation, judgment, and intention to act. We measure moral intensity in the accountant’s perception of overall harm and societal pressure. As in prior research, we find that the degree of moral intensity may be contextual. We find that the ethical evaluations may become affected by perceived overall harm, and whistleblowing intentions by perceived societal pressure. However, in both cases, the professional’s judgments are most affected by moral intensity. Consistent with prior research, whistleblowing intentions may involve many other mitigating variables, such as audit reporting or non-audit reporting limited by codes of conduct. These findings relate to the increasing attention paid by the SEC to finding accounting fraud.

This manuscript makes three important contributions to the existing literature. First, there are few studies in this area and Jones (1991) identifies that moral intensity is issue contingent; therefore, replication studies using different scenarios are needed. Second, Bailey, Scott, and Thoma (2010) have suggested that accounting ethics research has focused too narrowly on Component II of Rest’s Four-Component Model. None of the previous studies looked at all three steps in Rest’s Model; therefore, our manuscript provides an important contribution over the other previous studies. Third, our sample uses professionals and not students as surrogates for professionals.

This study examines contextual influences on taxpayers’ perceptions of a vague “low” probability of detection and the relationship between taxpayers’ perceptions and their likelihood to take questionable tax deductions. As such, we tie psychological theories that explain differential interpretations of qualitative probability phrases (base rate and support theories) to the taxpayer perception literature. Consistent with our hypotheses, taxpayers’ interpretations of “low” differ both between and within subjects, depending on the context in which deductions are presented. On average, our taxpayer subjects are less likely to take questionable deductions perceived to have a higher probability of detection than those perceived to have a lower detection probability. Our results contribute to existing literature by demonstrating that knowledge of subjects’ assessments of an event's probability is integral to designing experiments and drawing conclusions regarding observed behavior. This appears necessary even when researchers provide assessments of detection probabilities and/or employ scenarios for which systematic differences in probability perceptions are not inherently obvious.

There is growing evidence that managers perceive the general environment inaccurately, but very few studies have looked at the accuracy of specific strategic issue probability estimates, and at whether or not managers are aware of the accuracy or inaccuracy of their perceptions, something referred to as knowledge miscalibration. I explore perceptual inaccuracy and knowledge miscalibration in the form of overconfidence, in the context of demographic ageing, an issue currently affecting the tourism and hospitality industry. Using data from a survey of hotel managers, I find a high prevalence of perceptual error and evidence of a relatively large minority of respondents displaying knowledge overconfidence. Furthermore, I find a link between accurate environmental perceptions and strategic issue importance, suggesting that managers are better at accurately perceiving an issue when it is strategically important for their business. The same link does not exist with overconfidence, lending support to scholars arguing that overconfidence may be a trait, rather than being question-specific.

Purpose: Risk is a multifaceted concept, and its identification requires complex approaches that are often misunderstood. The consequence is that decisions are based on limited perception rather than the full value and meaning of what risk is, as a result, the way it is being tackled is incorrect. The individuals are often limited in their perceptions and ideas and do not embrace the full multifaceted nature of risk. Regulators and individuals want to follow norms and checklists or overuse models, simulations, and templates, thereby reducing responsibility for decision-making. At the same time, the wider use of technology and rules reduces the critical thinking of individuals. We advance the automation process by building robots that follow protocols and forget about the part of risk assessment that cannot be programed. Therefore, with this study, the objective of this study was to discover how people define risk, the influencing factors of risk perception and how they behave toward this perception. The authors also determine how the perception differed with age, gender, marital status, education level and region. The novelty of the research is related to individual risk perception during COVID-19, as this is a new and unknown phenomenon. Methodology: The research is based on the analysis of the self-administered purposely designed questionnaires we distributed across different social media platforms between February and June 2020 in Europe and in some cases was carried out as a interview over communication platforms such as “Skype,” “Zoom” and “Microsoft Teams.” The questionnaire was divided into four parts: Section 1 was designed to collect demographic information from the participants; Section 2 included risk definition statements obtained from literature and a preliminary discussion with peers; Section 3 included risk behavior statements; and Section 4 included statements on risk perception experiences. A five-point Likert Scale was provided, and participants were required to answer along a scale of “1” for “Strongly Agree” to “5” for “Strongly Disagree.” Participants also had the option to elaborate further and provide additional comments in an open-ended box provided at the end of the section. 466 valid responses were received. Thematic analysis was carried out to analyze the interviews and the open-ended questions, while the questionnaire responses were analyzed using various quantitative methods on IBM SPSS (version 23). Findings: The results of the analysis indicate that individuals evaluate the risk before making a decision and view risk as both a loss and opportunity. The study identifies nine factors influencing risk perception. Nevertheless, it must be emphasized that we can continue to develop models and rules, but as long as the risk is not understood, we will never achieve anything.

In this study, we examine the role of temporal framing in the context of tax audit risk. Using construal-level theory, we propose that compared with an every-year frame (e.g., 1.5 million returns are audited every year), framing audit risk in an everyday frame (e.g., 4,000 returns are audited every day) will make audit risk seem more likely and thus increase taxpayer compliance. We test whether perceived fairness of the tax system, an individual difference variable related to tax compliance, moderates the effect of temporal framing on behavioral intentions. The results show that communicating risk in a day frame rather than a year frame increases compliance for taxpayers who perceive the tax system as unfair but not for taxpayers who perceive the tax system as fair. Increasing compliance among taxpayers who perceive the tax system as unfair is crucial, as they are less likely to be compliant. Thus, framing audit risk can assist in increasing taxpayer compliance.

Purpose – In this chapter, we examine individual- and country-level differences in perceived job insecurity in the 27 European Union countries (EU27) within a multilevel framework.

Design/methodology/approach – We primarily focus on cross-national differences in perceived job insecurity in the EU27 and consider several possible explanations of it, including flexible employment practices, economic conditions, labor market structure, and political institutions. We examine both individual- and country-level determinants using multilevel partial proportional odds models based on individual-level data from the 2006 Eurobarometer 65.3 and country-level data from a variety of sources.

Findings – We find that European workers feel most insecure in countries with high unemployment, low union density, low levels of part-time and temporary employment, relatively little social spending on unemployment benefits, and in post-socialist countries.

Research limitations/implications – The findings from this study suggest that flexible employment practices do not necessarily cause workers to feel insecure in their jobs. This is likely due to the different nature of part-time and temporary employment in different institutional contexts.

Originality/value – This study is one of the most comprehensive accounts of perceived job insecurity in Europe given the focus on a larger number of countries and macro-level explanations for perceived job insecurity.