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The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse how different exchange rate regimes affect the links between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse how different exchange rate regimes affect the links between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the Pedroni method for panel cointegration, mean group and pooled mean group and the panel vector autoregressive technique, this study empirically investigates whether monetary fundamentals impact exchange rates similarly in both regimes. Thus, the author acquires needed and credible empirical data.
Findings
The result suggests that the impact is dissimilar. In the floating regime, an increase in relative money supply and relative real output depreciates and appreciates the nominal exchange rate in the long run whereas in the non-floating regime, the evidence is mixed. Thus, exchange rates bear a theoretically consistent relationship with monetary fundamentals across SSA countries with floating regimes but fails under non-floating regimes. This provides evidence that regime choice is important if the relationship between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in SSA are to be theoretically consistent.
Originality/value
This study empirically incorporates the dissimilarities in exchange rate regimes in a panel framework and study the links between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The focus on how exchange rate regimes might alter the equilibrium relationships between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in SSA is a pioneering experiment.
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The paper attempts to empirically examine the difference in the foreign direct investment (FDI) – private investment relationship between developed and developing countries over…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper attempts to empirically examine the difference in the foreign direct investment (FDI) – private investment relationship between developed and developing countries over the period 2000–2013.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses the two-step GMM Arellano-Bond estimators (both system and difference) for a group of 25 developed countries and a group of 72 developing ones. Then, the PMG estimator is employed to check the robustness of estimates.
Findings
First, there is a clear difference in the FDI – private investment relationship between developed countries and developing ones. Second, governance environment, economic growth and trade openness stimulate private investment. Third, the effect of tax revenue on private investment in developed countries is completely opposite to that in developing ones.
Originality/value
The paper is the first to provide empirical evidence to confirm the dependence of FDI – private investment relationship on governance environment. In fact, contrary to the view (arguments) in Morrissey and Udomkerdmongkol (2012), the paper indicates that FDI crowds out private investment in developed countries (good governance environment), but crowds in developing countries (poor governance environment).
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This study aims to examine the nexuses between economic growth, trade openness, renewable energy consumption and environmental degradation among organization of petroleum…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the nexuses between economic growth, trade openness, renewable energy consumption and environmental degradation among organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) members over the period 1990–2019.
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical strategy for the study includes dynamic heterogeneous panel pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) estimators and dynamic panel threshold regression (TR) analysis. For clarity, PMG and MG are used to explore the long-run relationship between the variables, whereas TR is used to uncover the actionable and complementary policy thresholds in the nexuses between green growth and environmental degradation.
Findings
The empirical evidence is based on the significant estimates from PMG and TR. First, using PMG, the study finding revealed a long-run relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation via the PMG estimator. Second, using TR, the study revealed an actionable threshold for carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) metrics tons per capita (mtpc) not beyond a critical mass of 4.88mtpc, and the complementary policy threshold of 85% of the share of trade to gross domestic product, respectively.
Research limitations/implications
The policy relevance of the thresholds is apparent to policymakers in the cartel and for policy formulation. The policy implication of this study is straightforward.
Originality/value
The novelty of this study stalk in the extant literature on providing policymakers with an actionable threshold for CO2 emissions with the corresponding complementary threshold for trade policies in the nexuses between green growth and the environment.
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Yusnidah Ibrahim and Jimoh Olajide Raji
This paper aims to examine the influence of key macroeconomic factors on the inward and outward acquisition activities of six ASEAN (ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the influence of key macroeconomic factors on the inward and outward acquisition activities of six ASEAN (ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, over the 1996-2015 period.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses alternative panel data methods, including pooled mean group, mean group and dynamic fixed-effect estimators.
Findings
The results indicate that gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, exchange rate, money supply and inflation rate are the most important macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of cross-border mergers and acquisition outflows of the ASEAN-6 countries. Specifically, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive relationships with acquisition outflows, while interest rate and exchange rate exert significant negative influence. On the other hand, the authors find four significant macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of the inward acquisitions. Essentially, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive impacts on inward acquisitions, while the impact of exchange rate is negatively significant.
Research limitations/implications
Unavailability of data limits this study to pool six sample countries from ASEAN, instead of ten representative member countries.
Practical implications
The results of this study can signal to firms or investors, involving in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, where to direct foreign resources flows. Moreover, having the knowledge about the relative levels of market size and other macroeconomic factors in both home and host countries can be of great importance for investment decision. Therefore, policymakers of ASEAN countries should make appropriate macroeconomic policies that can stimulate inward and outward acquisitions.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this paper is that it is the first to present the analysis of macroeconomic influences on the trends of inward and outward merger and acquisition activities in six ASEAN countries.
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This study aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate risk and export at commodity level for the Indian case.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate risk and export at commodity level for the Indian case.
Design/methodology/approach
The monthly panel data used for analysis are at a disaggregated level, which cover around 100 products, encompassing all merchandize sectors for the period spanning from 2012:12 to 2017:11. To measure the exchange rate volatility, the authors use real as well as nominal exchange rate concepts and predict the volatility of exchange rate using the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-based model. They use pooled mean group, mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimator that is suitable for the objectives and data frequency.
Findings
The empirical analysis indicates both short- and long-term negative effects of exchange rate variations on exporting. Specifically, in the long run, real exchange rate as well as nominal exchange rate volatility has significant effects on export performance, yet, the effects of uncertainty of nominal exchange rate is much severe and intense. In the short run, it is the nominal exchange rate uncertainty that hurts exports from India. Nevertheless, the short-run effect is much lesser than the long-run, supporting the argument that the short-term exchange rate risk can be hedged, at least partially, through financial instruments; however, uncertainty of the long-term horizon cannot be hedged easily and cost-effectively.
Practical implications
Reducing uncertainty and attaining stability in exchange rate and price level should be an important policy objective in developing countries such as India to achieve higher export growth, both in the short and long run.
Originality/value
Unlike previous studies, this paper tests the relationship using micro-level data and uses advanced econometric techniques that are likely to provide more precise information regarding the association between exchange rate volatility and trade flows.
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Seemab Ahmad, Dilawar Khan and Ihtisham ul Haq
The widening income gap between rich and poor has gained worldwide recognition in recent decades. This income gap between rich and poor is defined as the extent of income unevenly…
Abstract
Purpose
The widening income gap between rich and poor has gained worldwide recognition in recent decades. This income gap between rich and poor is defined as the extent of income unevenly distributed in a host country. This study provides an empirical view of the association between information and communication technology and the widening of the income gap.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used panel data from 2005 to 2019. To detect unit root issues, Levin and Lin (LL) and Im, Pesaran and Shin (IPS) tests were first employed. The pooled mean group and mean group estimators were employed to investigate the short and long -term impact of information and communication technology and other control factors on reducing the gap between rich and poor in South Asia.
Findings
The results showed that the Pooled mean group's findings are more efficient and consistent as compared to mean group estimators. The results of the paper showed that the greater penetration of information and communication technologies in the economy negatively and significantly affects income inequality. Moreover, the information and communication technology, foreign remittances and foreign direct investment (FDI) significantly reduce the gap between rich and poor in the long run.
Practical implications
At last, the findings of the study serve as an excellent roadmap for policymakers seeking to address the issue of growing income inequality in the South Asian regions and worldwide.
Originality/value
Based on the findings of this study, South Asia can reduce the gap between rich and poor by investing more in the information and communication technology sector.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-10-2021-0638
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Globalization occupies a central research activity and remains an increasingly controversial phenomenon in economics. This phenomenon corresponds to a subject that can be…
Abstract
Purpose
Globalization occupies a central research activity and remains an increasingly controversial phenomenon in economics. This phenomenon corresponds to a subject that can be criticized through its impact on national economies. On the other hand, the world economy is evolving in a liberalized environment in which foreign direct investment plays a fundamental role in the economic development of each country. The advent of financial flows – foreign direct investment, remittances and official development assistance – can be a key factor in the development of the economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of financial flows on economic growth in developing countries. Empirically, different approaches have been used. As part of this study, an attempt was made to use a combined autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) panel approach to study the short-term and long-run effects of financial flows on economic growth. The results indicate ambiguous effects. Economically, the effect of financial flows on economic growth depends on the investor’s expectations.
Design/methodology/approach
To study the short-run and long-run effects of financial flows on economic growth, this paper considers an empirical approach based on the panel ARDL. This model makes it possible to distinguish between the short-run effect and the long-run one. This type of model is based on three estimators, namely, mean group, pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect.
Findings
Results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship because the adjustment coefficient (error correction parameter) is negative and statistically significant. This paper finds that the PMG estimator is more consistent and more efficient. In the short-run, foreign direct investment do negatively affect economic growth, the effect is no significant in the long-run. On the other hand, the effect of remittances on economic growth is significant in the short-run. However, it is no significant in the long-run. Finally, the results suggest that the effect of official development assistance on economic growth is insignificant; both in the long-run and in the short-run.
Originality/value
To study the interaction between financial flows and economic growth, some empirical methodology are used such as the dynamic panel data and the autoregressive vector (VAR) model. In this study, we apply the panel ARDL model to analyze the short-run and the long-run effect for each financial flow on economic growth. The objective is to study the heterogeneity on dynamic adjustment in the short-term and long-term.
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Tolulope Osinubi and Simplice Asongu
This study examines the effect of globalization on female economic participation (FEP) in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the effect of globalization on female economic participation (FEP) in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries between 2004 and 2018.
Design/methodology/approach
Four measures of globalization are employed and sourced from KOF globalization index, 2018, while the female labour force participation rate is a proxy for FEP. The empirical evidence is based on the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator.
Findings
The findings of the PMG estimator from the Panel ARDL method reveal that political and overall globalization in MINT and BRICS countries have a positive impact on FEP, whereas social globalization exerts a negative impact on FEP in the long-run. It is observed that economic globalization has no long-run effect on FEP. Contrarily, all the measures of globalization reflect no short-run effect on FEP. This supports the argument that globalization has no immediate effect on FEP. Thus, it is recommended that both MINT and BRICS countries should find a way of improving the process of globalization generally to empower women to be involved in economic activities.
Originality/value
This study complements the extant literature by focusing on how globalization dynamics influence FEP in the MINT and BRICS countries.
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Syed Mehmood Raza Shah, Yan Lu, Qiang Fu, Muhammad Ishfaq and Ghulam Abbas
Shadow banking has been evolving rapidly in China, with banks actively using wealth management products (WMPs) to evade regulatory restrictions. These products are the largest…
Abstract
Purpose
Shadow banking has been evolving rapidly in China, with banks actively using wealth management products (WMPs) to evade regulatory restrictions. These products are the largest constituent of China's shadow banking sector. A large number of these products are off-balance-sheet and considered a substitute for bank deposits. China's banking sector, especially the small and medium-sized banks (SMBs), uses these products to avoid regulatory restrictions and sustainability risk in the deposit market.
Design/methodology/approach
This study empirically examined how banks in China, specifically SMBs, utilize these products on a short and long-run basis to manage and control their deposit levels. This study utilized a quarterly panel dataset from 2010 to 2019 for the top 30 Chinese banks, by first implementing a Panel ARDL-PMG model. For cross-sectional dependence, this study further executed a cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributive lag model (CS-ARDL).
Findings
Under regulations avoidance theory, the findings revealed that WMPs and deposits have a stable long-run substitute relationship. Furthermore, the WMP–Deposit substitute relationship was only significant and consistent for SMBs, but not for large four banks. The findings further revealed that the WMP–Deposit substitute relationship existed, even after the removal of the deposit rate limit imposed by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to control the deposit rates.
Research limitations/implications
The individual bank-issued WMPs' amount data is not available in any database. Therefore, this study utilized the number of WMPs as a proxy for China's banking sector's exposure to the wealth management business.
Practical implications
This research helps policymakers to understand the Deposit–WMP relationship from the off-balance-sheet perspective. During the various stages of interest rate liberalization, banks were given more control to establish their deposit and loan interest rates. However, the deposit rates are still way below the WMP returns, making WMPs more competitive. This research suggests that policymakers should formulate a more balanced strategy regarding deposit rates and WMPs returns.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the existing literature on China's shadow banking by concentrating on the WMPs. This research represents one of the few studies that analyze regulatory arbitrage in terms of the WMP–Deposit relationship. Moreover, the implementation of CS-ARDL panel data models and multiple data sources makes this study's findings more reliable and significant.
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Sérgio Kannebley Júnior, Diogo de Prince and Daniel Quinaud Pedron da Silva
Brazil uses the dollar as a vehicle currency to invoice its exports. This fact produces a tendency toward equalizing the prices of products in dollars in the international market…
Abstract
Purpose
Brazil uses the dollar as a vehicle currency to invoice its exports. This fact produces a tendency toward equalizing the prices of products in dollars in the international market and reducing the ability of firms to practice pricing-to-market (PTM). This study aims to evaluate the hypothesis by estimating error correction models in panel data, obtaining estimates of PTM for 25 manufacturing products exported by Brazil between 2010 and 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the correlated common effect estimator proposed by Pesaran (2006) and Chudik and Pesaran (2015b) to estimate the PTM coefficients.
Findings
Results of this study indicate that exporters practice local-currency pricing stability for dollar prices. This study obtains that Brazilian exporters tend to stabilize their dollar price for exports, reducing heterogeneity between destination markets. The results are in agreement with the hypothesis of the prevalence of the coalescing effect of Goldberg and Tille (2008) and lower sensitivity of the markup adjustment to the specific market, as pointed out by Corsetti et al. (2018). The pricing of Brazilian exports in dollars reflects a profit maximization strategy that considers an international price system based on global demand for products.
Originality/value
In addition to analyzing the dollar role in the pricing of Brazilian exports through the triangular decomposition, this study also shows the importance of examining the cross-section dependence of errors, considering the heterogeneous cointegration in export pricing models and producing PTM estimates for short-term and long-term.
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