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Monetary model of exchange rate determination under floating and non-floating regimes

Oyakhilome Wallace Ibhagui (Department of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, UK)

China Finance Review International

ISSN: 2044-1398

Article publication date: 31 July 2018

Issue publication date: 16 May 2019

1340

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse how different exchange rate regimes affect the links between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the Pedroni method for panel cointegration, mean group and pooled mean group and the panel vector autoregressive technique, this study empirically investigates whether monetary fundamentals impact exchange rates similarly in both regimes. Thus, the author acquires needed and credible empirical data.

Findings

The result suggests that the impact is dissimilar. In the floating regime, an increase in relative money supply and relative real output depreciates and appreciates the nominal exchange rate in the long run whereas in the non-floating regime, the evidence is mixed. Thus, exchange rates bear a theoretically consistent relationship with monetary fundamentals across SSA countries with floating regimes but fails under non-floating regimes. This provides evidence that regime choice is important if the relationship between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in SSA are to be theoretically consistent.

Originality/value

This study empirically incorporates the dissimilarities in exchange rate regimes in a panel framework and study the links between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The focus on how exchange rate regimes might alter the equilibrium relationships between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in SSA is a pioneering experiment.

Keywords

Citation

Ibhagui, O.W. (2019), "Monetary model of exchange rate determination under floating and non-floating regimes", China Finance Review International, Vol. 9 No. 2, pp. 254-283. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-10-2017-0204

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

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