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The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

This paper presents strategic alliances as one fundamental tool in the process of constructing the future. The alliances are based on prospective scenarios, within strategic interactions.

The central key is the view of the most probable future as a NASH balance point. This point identifies not only a balance of forces, but also the negotiation limits for each actor and therefore the strategic alliances possible. The alliances, if achieved, create a “super actor”, destabilizing the original balance, and creating a new balance point, and therefore a more likely new future.

This article develops a methodology for the identification of a desired normative scenario, acceptable and feasible, based on a set of prospective scenarios.

Drawing on a EU-funded research project on urbanisation in China and Europe (URBACHINA), the purpose of this inquiry is to explore the potential of foresight – through visionary scenarios and related participatory processes – in promoting learning and sustainable futures in China’s centrally planned context. Our research explores the use of backcasting, of Donella Meadows’ “levers” and Paul Raskin’s “proximate-ultimate drivers” and of archetypal worldviews to further our understanding of how we think about the future, and of the tension between transition scenarios and transformative, paradigmatic or deep change.

A review of recent foresight studies and literature provides an overview of the latest approaches: in particular the methods, scope, process, level of participation, themes discussed and wild cards considered. Building on this, the inquiry designs and implements a participatory, normative and qualitative scenario building to explore sustainable urban futures for China, adapting the elements of Joseph Voros’ basic foresight process to include a total of nine steps, with five workshops, two international surveys, an adapted backcasting step and internal consistency mechanisms.

The combination of a participatory iterative process with normative approaches to envisioning, helped question assumptions and deeply ingrained development models, as well as the narrow space for “alternatives” resulting from China’s centralised, top-down planning and decision-making. The experience confirms the power of scenario/storyline building in helping reflect and question strategic policy choices and enrich urban policy debates. The process successfully proposed a number of steps that ensured triangulation of the envisioning outcomes and additional learning also through backcasting. Finally, the research shows a clear link between the development of scenarios space, the debate on transition and transformative futures and archetypal worldviews, which were shown to be stable even after decades.

The URBACHINA approach to the specific challenge of sustainable urbanisation in China applies a strong normative component combined to more locally accepted exploratory methods and introduces a participatory approach to all key stages of scenario building. This represents an innovative contribution to the country’s foresight practice and the results help Chinese decision makers to reflect on the wider sustainability implications of their urban strategy. The inquiry deepens our understanding of the use of proximate and ultimate drivers of change and of the tension between transition and transformation pathways to our future.

This article presents a scenario based on the inputs of 550 futurists, scholars, business planners and policy advisers from around the world. Their views on global developments were distilled into a range of issues, opportunities and actions to address. These have been woven together into a scenario based on achieving norms by 2050 that were identified and rated by Millennium Project participants from around the world. This scenario describes how technological success, human development, and economic/political policies achieved a global economy that appears to be environmentally sustainable while providing nearly all people with the basic necessities of life and the majority with a comfortable living. The resulting social stability has created a relatively peaceful world and allowed the exploration of possible futures for the second half of the 21st century.

There has been no shortage of rosy visions for the future of Africa or its regions. Almost without exception, these visions have been dashed by reality. The question therefore arises: “To what extent or under what conditions is visioning an ideal future a worthy exercise?” or “Under what conditions is it useful and when is it limiting?” In anticipating the future in general, and seeking a better future for Africa in particular, might foresight tools built on another (non‐visionary) basis provide better fruit? This paper aims to address this issue.

The paper considers this question as it applies to scenario planning in particular, by investigating recent, contrasting case studies of scenario‐building activities in Africa (Tanzania and South Africa).

The paper determines the appropriate uses and limits of “visionary” scenario planning, and suggests a contrasting “adaptive” basis for scenario work.

It is argued that maintaining the purpose‐platform distinction between these two modes is fundamental to getting full value out of scenario work in general, and in the African context in particular. The contrasting case studies explain how and why the adaptive‐normative distinction is important; how different purposes each demand different use of the scenario process tools that currently exist, and show why failure to fit scenario approaches to purpose greatly diminishes the efficacy of the method for either purpose.

The article seeks to address the lack of serious, normative scenarios exploring peace in the Middle East.

Three normative, backcasted scenarios were written. These were derived from literature searches, interviews with experts in the field, and input from a three‐round Delphi. Actions were identified and rated by the Delphi panel in Rounds 1 and 2. Draft text with areas for comment throughout the scenarios was collected in Round 3 and used to improve the draft scenarios.

The scenarios address seven preconditions for peace in the Middle East: secure borders for Israel; establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state; resolution of the Jerusalem question; ending violence by both sides and building confidence; social and economic development; education; and resolution of Palestinian refugee status.

The scenarios are intended for use in a variety of settings to help further the Middle East peace process.

Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South.

This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed.

Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South.

The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.

Integrated care presents health workforce planners with significant uncertainty. This results from: (1) these workforces are likely in the future to be different from the present, (2) integrated care's variable definitions and (3) workforce policy and planning is not familiar with addressing such challenges. One means to deal with uncertainty is scenario analysis. In this study we reveal some integration-supportive workforce governance and planning policies that were derived from the application of scenario analysis.

Through a mixed methods design that applies content analysis, scenario construction and the policy Delphi method, we analysed a set of New Zealand's older persons health sector workforce scenarios. Developed from data gathered from workforce documents and studies, the scenarios were evaluated by a suitably qualified panel, and derived policy statements were assessed for desirability and feasibility.

One scenario was found to be most favourable, based on its broad focus, inclusion of prevention and references to patient dignity, although funding changes were indicated as necessary for its realisation. The integration-supportive policies are based on promoting network-based care models, patient-centric funding that promotes collaboration and the enhancement of interprofessional education and educator involvement.

Scenario analysis for policy production is rare in health workforce planning. We show how it is possible to identify policies to address an integrated care workforce's development using this method. The article provides value for planners and decision-makers by identifying the pros and cons of future situations and offers guidance on how to reduce uncertainty through policy rehearsal and reflection.

The objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies, especially backcasting, can be used to assist public policy formulation. Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context, since it allows the key characteristics concerning the state of the future to be fixed according to the goals policymakers have set to achieve.

The paper is a case study presenting the goals, progression and the results of the backcasting exercise of the Finnish Prime Minister's Office.

The backcasting methodology, as applied in the exercise presented in this paper, is a useful tool in public policy formulation. It is important to note, however, that in the way the exercise was carried out in this case, it is only possible to view future development through qualitative arguments. The key element for successful application of the method is the choice of expert group that produces the information.

Even though backcasting seems to be very well suited for discussing and designing alternative ways of achieving predetermined policy goals, experiences of using this methodology in the policy context are quite rare in the scientific literature. This paper addresses this deficiency and presents experiences of one such case. These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long‐range strategy planning.

Uncertainties affecting health organizations inevitably influence real estate decisions since real estate is required to facilitate the primary health process. The purpose of this study is to develop a decision support tool that supports health organisations in defining what flexibility they need in order to develop a flexible real estate strategy and to adapt to future uncertainties.

The research is being conducted from a design science perspective. By addressing the needs of real estate managers in health, research relevance is reached. By applying scientific knowledge when developing the tool, rigor is achieved.

Major elements of the decision support tool developed are real options to describe flexibility and its consequences for corporate real estate management, and the backcasting scenario planning method.

The application of the tool by health organisations can increase the professionalization of real estate management and improve the match between current and future demand and supply of real estate, adding to the effectiveness and efficiency in healthcare in general.

This is the first tool developed using the real options approach that provides real estate managers in health a systematic insight into the various types of flexibility needed for the future.

The purpose of this study is to formulate exploratory scenarios of Operations Research through the critical uncertainty approach and Soft Systems Methodology.

In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, the discipline of operation research internal and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After use of the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of operations research have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops.

Four scenarios are presented in this study. These scenarios include Solar System, Esfandiar's Eye, Rival’s Setraps and Legendary Simurgh. Naturally, the imagination of such a unitary future for all academic communities is an expectation far from reality, and given the conditions of each of these futures or any integration of them is imaginable.

Operations Research models have been faced with variously multiple changes since its emergence until now. Investigation into the future of operations research on the necessity for his planning has not received a reasonable notice in the literature. Sporadic activities that have been carried out are also lacking in the necessary methodology. Also, there has been no research about future study using the soft Operation Research tools (Soft Systems Methodology).