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COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future.

To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future.

In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today).

The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.

This study aims to formulate exploratory scenarios of the textile industry in Iran based on MICMAC and soft operational research methods.

In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, literature reviews and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through the Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After the utilization of the most important uncertainties, the textile industry’s plausible scenarios have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops. Results show that two factors, including the business atmosphere and membership in World Trade Organization (WTO), play a more important role than the other factors. These two factors were considered for the formulation of the scenario. To formulate plausible scenarios, soft systems methodology, which is a kind of soft operational research methods, is applied.

Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include the Elysium scenario, Hades scenario, Tatarus scenario and Sisyphus scenario. In the Elysium scenario, the business atmosphere has improved and Iran has been granted membership of the WTO. In Hades scenario, Iran has joined the WTO, but due to the government’s weakness and inactivity and key decision-makers, the required preparations have not been made. In the Tatarus scenario, Iran is not a WTO member and the business atmosphere is disastrous. In the Sisyphus scenario, the government takes reasonable actions toward a better business environment.

Formulating plausible scenarios of the textile industry is an excellent contribution to the key beneficiaries and actors of this industry so they can present flexible preparation-based programs in the face of circumstances. Future study of the textile industry familiarizes the actors and beneficiaries of this industry with the procedures and the driving forces that influence this industry’s future and it will ascertain various scenarios for the actors of this field.

The purpose of this study is to show how scenario-based forecasting can give a better understanding of future commercial potential of a newly developed technology. This study aims to bridge the existing gaps in technology commercialization process for various projects supported under innovation support schemes in India.

The scope of this study is to understand the commercial potential and future deployment prospect of “sun direct hot water system (SDHWS)”. Scenarios have been drawn using “cone of plausibility” method and the commercial potential forecasted under different scenarios using arithmetic and linear regression forecasting tool.

The SDHWS is an incremental innovation but has great potential to overcome major constraints and barriers associated with existing solar water heater (SWH) technologies. Among the three scenarios drawn, plausible scenario is most likely to happen in future. The SDHWS is technically and economically capable of replacing existing conventional systems of SWHs.

The study is limited to developing alternate qualitative scenarios and, further, an attempt to quantify the commercial potential. Various assumptions have been taken because of non-availability of past data on SDHWS technology.

Scenario-based forecasting to understand commercial potential for innovative technology is a new approach. The adoption of such insight and analysis would brighten the chance of SDHWS technology to reach the market.

This paper aims to examine the design and use of scenarios in planning and management control processes.

The study is based on an exploratory case-study approach. Qualitative data have been collected between 2008 and 2011 from three energy companies operating in Italy.

The paper sheds light on three styles of designing and using scenarios. In the first (called “reactive”), scenarios provide a means for corporate actors to analyse past performance in the light of future expected performance. In the second (“proactive”), scenarios contribute to envision different future states of the world. In the third (“disciplined”), scenarios contribute to develop plausible, if not accurate, narratives about future outcomes.

The study is comparative and exploratory. Possible areas for further work based on in-depth studies of scenarios within planning and control processes are identified.

The comparative analysis of the case-study material has implications for the ways in which flexible forms of management control can be mobilised by managers as a resource of action. It is shown that choices around the design and use of scenarios can mitigate some concerns with traditional planning and management control processes focused on the achievement of a single set of targets, but also raise new ones.

The paper sheds light on a scenario-based approach – called “disciplined flexibility” – that avoids the restrictive nature of budgetary controls without losing the benefits of setting a plan and a target for the future. The paper outlines elements that may support the use of “disciplined flexibility”, but also its potential limitations.

This paper aims to describe a robust empirical approach to generating plausible historically based interest rate shocks, which can be applied to any market environment. These interest rate shocks can be readily linked to movements in other key risk factors, and used to measure market risk on institutions with large fixed-income portfolios.

Using yield curve factorization, we parameterize a time series of historical yield curves and measure interest rate shocks as the historical change in each of the model’s factors. We then demonstrate how to add these parameterized shocks to any market environment, while retaining positive rates and plausible credit spreads. Given a set of shocked interest rate curves, joint risk factor movements are calculated based upon historical, reduced form dependencies.

Our approach is based upon yield curve parameterization and requires a parsimonious yet flexible factorization model. In the process of selecting a model, we evaluate three variants of the Nelson–Siegel approach to yield curve approximation and find that, in the current low interest rate environment, a 5-factor parameterization developed by Björk and Christensen (1999) is best suited for accurately translating historical interest rate movements into plausible, current period shocks.

An accurate measure of market risk can help to inform institutions about the amount of capital needed to withstand a series of adverse market events. A plausible set of shocks is required to ensure market value, and cash flow projections are indicative of meaningful market sensitivities.

The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of methodological choice possibilities.

The paper surveys the history of both terms in both the English language and more narrowly within scenario planning, critically assessing the confusions that have arisen. The paper questions the distinctions that have been made and offers a richer set of combinations to open up the methodological space available.

The paper suggests that the either/or stances that have been dominant in the literature – and even shaped distinctions between different schools of scenario planning – must be surpassed by a richer set of combinations that open up new methodological approaches and possibilities.

This is a conceptual and exploratory paper. Therefore the findings are propositions and tentative.

The paper opens up new ways of producing scenarios and may dissolve some of the infertile distinctions that have plagued the field to now.

The paper dilutes distinctions that have been accepted for decades and opens up new possibilities in the scenarios field, which is growing and is now producing some 2,200 peer-reviewed articles/year in English alone as per the EBSCO database.

This article aims to describe a qualitative, exploratory study with the objective of developing scenarios for the road freight transport industry in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of the method applied, which used the stakeholders of said industry as a means to identify the variables of the scenarios.

According to the classification scheme developed by Huss and Honton, the authors' method fits into the intuitive logics approach to scenarios, employing concepts of stakeholder analysis as proposed by Freeman. Primary data collection was conducted through key informant interviews, as outlined by Fetterman. The use of the method of intuitive logics combined with the stakeholder analysis evaluates the consistency of experts' opinions on the characteristics of stakeholders. Four environmental scenarios, distinct but equally plausible, were generated for the road freight transport industry as it was felt that more than four scenarios tends to be too complex.

The method applied produced scenarios distinctive enough to classify them as contrasting, accounting for macroenvironmental variables and variables determined by influential stakeholders in the analyzed industry. Organized and connected, these variables produced precise end states that warrant consideration in the policies and strategies of industry players. The characteristics of the scenarios produced reveal that the method was effective. The authors found the most influential stakeholders in the industry to be the government, shipping clients, end consumers, logistics service providers, and trade associations. The industry's main uncertainties are tied to how the actions of government, shippers, and logistics service providers will unfold.

Some limitations could be identified in the method. One refers to the absence of procedures to govern the chronology of events at the time of preparation of scenario plots. Another shortcoming is the third and final stage of the research; the authors observed some weakness in the method when defining a variable that is independent because it can be independent of the variables selected for the last step but dependent on others considered but not selected.

The results of the study can stimulate reflection of stakeholders on factors that will affect their decision making, stimulate understanding of the conditions for sustainability of the industry, and identify business opportunities and necessary strategic resources for the success of organizations in the future.

The transport industry plays a vital role in factors that are paramount for the economical development of a country, such as exploration of resources and mass production, and, in Brazil, road freight transport is of particular importance. The research can guide public policy in regulating and investing in industry, since the plots facilitate the understanding of the consequences of causal relationships as well as the final states resulting from these. The scenarios reveal causal relationships strongly influenced by the stakeholder “government”, especially regarding investment in infrastructure, regulation and supervision of the industry.

Application of the method proposed by Boaventura and Fischmann to the road freight transport industry generated distinct, but equally plausible scenarios. The method considered the key uncertainties as dichotomous variables. The scenarios were different since combinations of final states of the key uncertainties led to a different logic or rationale. The authors may state that this particular application contributed towards improvement of the method, as it tested the method's logic when applied to a complex environment influenced by many stakeholders.

The purpose of this paper is to explore a very new approach of creating scenarios with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM); specifically to create scenarios for wind energy deployment.

In this paper a small exercise is conducted to illustrate the usefulness of FCM‐based scenarios.

Scenario‐based planning is often used in technology management and scenarios are generated to cater for uncertainty and facilitate development of responsive and robust strategic plans. Scenario analysis helps to identify different alternatives of the future state of technologies, needs, policies and environment. Scenario planning helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. FCMs are based on causal cognitive maps and combine the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. Domain knowledge of multiple experts can be integrated into an FCM to present collective knowledge base.

This is a conceptual paper exploring use of fuzzy cognitive maps to create scenarios for wind energy deployment. The paper provides scenarios and a way to integrate them into technology roadmaps.

Scenarios are plausible stories about alternative futures. They draw on stories, which are most natural and powerful ways of representing, and understanding, sets of events. Scenarios look at the past and present, and offer insights into a future where things are generally uncertain. They are used by many organisations as part of strategic planning and as a way of forecasting what core competencies the organisation needs to develop for survival and competitive advantage. These ideas are applied to current library practice.

This paper aims to present “Bouncecasting,” a seminar gaming foresight approach useful for examining “wicked problems” where the path to the future is uncertain and malleable and where major stakeholders may have different preferences for different futures. The approach gets its name because it goes back and forth between forecasting and backcasting, provides for give and take among different groups of stakeholders and creates and compares multiple scenarios depicting plausible futures.

After defining Bouncecasting, presenting its main features and providing a recommended way of conducting Bouncecasting studies, the approach is illustrated by four Bouncecasting projects conducted between 1998 and 2004.

The four projects taken together show that Bouncecasting can be used to address a range of wicked problems in a practical way. The projects considered in sequence show the evolution of the method.

Bouncecasting is a way of doing foresight that examines in an integrated way multiple characteristics of a policy problem, thereby providing promising solutions for complex issues. Although there have been over a dozen Bouncecasting studies conducted by the author and different sets of colleagues, this is the first general description of the approach.