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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 June 2019

Muhammad Zahir Khan and Muhammad Farid Khan

A significant number of studies have been conducted to analyze and understand the relationship between gas emissions and global temperature using conventional statistical…

3165

Abstract

Purpose

A significant number of studies have been conducted to analyze and understand the relationship between gas emissions and global temperature using conventional statistical approaches. However, these techniques follow assumptions of probabilistic modeling, where results can be associated with large errors. Furthermore, such traditional techniques cannot be applied to imprecise data. The purpose of this paper is to avoid strict assumptions when studying the complex relationships between variables by using the three innovative, up-to-date, statistical modeling tools: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and fuzzy time series models.

Design/methodology/approach

These three approaches enabled us to effectively represent the relationship between global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector (oil, gas and coal) and the average global temperature increase. Temperature was used in this study (1900-2012). Investigations were conducted into the predictive power and performance of different fuzzy techniques against conventional methods and among the fuzzy techniques themselves.

Findings

A performance comparison of the ANFIS model against conventional techniques showed that the root means square error (RMSE) of ANFIS and conventional techniques were found to be 0.1157 and 0.1915, respectively. On the other hand, the correlation coefficients of ANN and the conventional technique were computed to be 0.93 and 0.69, respectively. Furthermore, the fuzzy-based time series analysis of CO2 emissions and average global temperature using three fuzzy time series modeling techniques (Singh, Abbasov–Mamedova and NFTS) showed that the RMSE of fuzzy and conventional time series models were 110.51 and 1237.10, respectively.

Social implications

The paper provides more awareness about fuzzy techniques application in CO2 emissions studies.

Originality/value

These techniques can be extended to other models to assess the impact of CO2 emission from other sectors.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 11 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 July 2020

Ghoulemallah Boukhalfa, Sebti Belkacem, Abdesselem Chikhi and Said Benaggoune

This paper presents the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm in conjuction with the fuzzy logic method in order to achieve an optimized tuning of a proportional integral…

1246

Abstract

This paper presents the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm in conjuction with the fuzzy logic method in order to achieve an optimized tuning of a proportional integral derivative controller (PID) in the DTC control loops of dual star induction motor (DSIM). The fuzzy controller is insensitive to parametric variations, however, with the PSO-based optimization approach we obtain a judicious choice of the gains to make the system more robust. According to Matlab simulation, the results demonstrate that the hybrid DTC of DSIM improves the speed loop response, ensures the system stability, reduces the steady state error and enhances the rising time. Moreover, with this controller, the disturbances do not affect the motor performances.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. 18 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 January 2022

Sara Antomarioni, Filippo Emanuele Ciarapica and Maurizio Bevilacqua

The research approach is based on the concept that a failure event is rarely random and is often generated by a chain of previous events connected by a sort of domino effect…

1052

Abstract

Purpose

The research approach is based on the concept that a failure event is rarely random and is often generated by a chain of previous events connected by a sort of domino effect. Thus, the purpose of this study is the optimal selection of the components to predictively maintain on the basis of their failure probability, under budget and time constraints.

Design/methodology/approach

Assets maintenance is a major challenge for any process industry. Thanks to the development of Big Data Analytics techniques and tools, data produced by such systems can be analyzed in order to predict their behavior. Considering the asset as a social system composed of several interacting components, in this work, a framework is developed to identify the relationships between component failures and to avoid them through the predictive replacement of critical ones: such relationships are identified through the Association Rule Mining (ARM), while their interaction is studied through the Social Network Analysis (SNA).

Findings

A case example of a process industry is presented to explain and test the proposed model and to discuss its applicability. The proposed framework provides an approach to expand upon previous work in the areas of prediction of fault events and monitoring strategy of critical components.

Originality/value

The novel combined adoption of ARM and SNA is proposed to identify the hidden interaction among events and to define the nature of such interactions and communities of nodes in order to analyze local and global paths and define the most influential entities.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 40 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 April 2019

Iman Ghalehkhondabi, Ehsan Ardjmand, William A. Young and Gary R. Weckman

The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.

14894

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.

Design/methodology/approach

Published papers in the high quality journals are studied and categorized based their used forecasting method.

Findings

There is no forecasting method which can develop the best forecasts for all of the problems. Combined forecasting methods are providing better forecasts in comparison to the traditional forecasting methods.

Originality/value

This paper reviews the available literature from 2007 to 2017. There is not such a review available in the literature.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 November 2021

Showmitra Kumar Sarkar, Swapan Talukdar, Atiqur Rahman, Shahfahad and Sujit Kumar Roy

The present study aims to construct ensemble machine learning (EML) algorithms for groundwater potentiality mapping (GPM) in the Teesta River basin of Bangladesh, including random…

2276

Abstract

Purpose

The present study aims to construct ensemble machine learning (EML) algorithms for groundwater potentiality mapping (GPM) in the Teesta River basin of Bangladesh, including random forest (RF) and random subspace (RSS).

Design/methodology/approach

The RF and RSS models have been implemented for integrating 14 selected groundwater condition parametres with groundwater inventories for generating GPMs. The GPM were then validated using the empirical and bionormal receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve.

Findings

The very high (831–1200 km2) and high groundwater potential areas (521–680 km2) were predicted using EML algorithms. The RSS (AUC-0.892) model outperformed RF model based on ROC's area under curve (AUC).

Originality/value

Two new EML models have been constructed for GPM. These findings will aid in proposing sustainable water resource management plans.

Details

Frontiers in Engineering and Built Environment, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2499

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 August 2022

Armin Mahmoodi, Leila Hashemi, Milad Jasemi, Jeremy Laliberté, Richard C. Millar and Hamed Noshadi

In this research, the main purpose is to use a suitable structure to predict the trading signals of the stock market with high accuracy. For this purpose, two models for the…

1019

Abstract

Purpose

In this research, the main purpose is to use a suitable structure to predict the trading signals of the stock market with high accuracy. For this purpose, two models for the analysis of technical adaptation were used in this study.

Design/methodology/approach

It can be seen that support vector machine (SVM) is used with particle swarm optimization (PSO) where PSO is used as a fast and accurate classification to search the problem-solving space and finally the results are compared with the neural network performance.

Findings

Based on the result, the authors can say that both new models are trustworthy in 6 days, however, SVM-PSO is better than basic research. The hit rate of SVM-PSO is 77.5%, but the hit rate of neural networks (basic research) is 74.2.

Originality/value

In this research, two approaches (raw-based and signal-based) have been developed to generate input data for the model: raw-based and signal-based. For comparison, the hit rate is considered the percentage of correct predictions for 16 days.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 September 2020

Tao Peng, Xingliang Liu, Rui Fang, Ronghui Zhang, Yanwei Pang, Tao Wang and Yike Tong

This study aims to develop an automatic lane-change mechanism on highways for self-driving articulated trucks to improve traffic safety.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop an automatic lane-change mechanism on highways for self-driving articulated trucks to improve traffic safety.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors proposed a novel safety lane-change path planning and tracking control method for articulated vehicles. A double-Gaussian distribution was introduced to deduce the lane-change trajectories of tractor and trailer coupling characteristics of intelligent vehicles and roads. With different steering and braking maneuvers, minimum safe distances were modeled and calculated. Considering safety and ergonomics, the authors invested multilevel self-driving modes that serve as the basis of decision-making for vehicle lane-change. Furthermore, a combined controller was designed by feedback linearization and single-point preview optimization to ensure the path tracking and robust stability. Specialized hardware in the loop simulation platform was built to verify the effectiveness of the designed method.

Findings

The numerical simulation results demonstrated the path-planning model feasibility and controller-combined decision mechanism effectiveness to self-driving trucks. The proposed trajectory model could provide safety lane-change path planning, and the designed controller could ensure good tracking and robust stability for the closed-loop nonlinear system.

Originality/value

This is a fundamental research of intelligent local path planning and automatic control for articulated vehicles. There are two main contributions: the first is a more quantifiable trajectory model for self-driving articulated vehicles, which provides the opportunity to adapt vehicle and scene changes. The second involves designing a feedback linearization controller, combined with a multi-objective decision-making mode, to improve the comprehensive performance of intelligent vehicles. This study provides a valuable reference to develop advanced driving assistant system and intelligent control systems for self-driving articulated vehicles.

Details

Journal of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-9802

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 March 2022

Modeste Meliho, Abdellatif Khattabi, Zejli Driss and Collins Ashianga Orlando

The purpose of the paper is to predict mapping of areas vulnerable to flooding in the Ourika watershed in the High Atlas of Morocco with the aim of providing a useful tool capable…

1458

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to predict mapping of areas vulnerable to flooding in the Ourika watershed in the High Atlas of Morocco with the aim of providing a useful tool capable of helping in the mitigation and management of floods in the associated region, as well as Morocco as a whole.

Design/methodology/approach

Four machine learning (ML) algorithms including k-nearest neighbors (KNN), artificial neural network, random forest (RF) and x-gradient boost (XGB) are adopted for modeling. Additionally, 16 predictors divided into categorical and numerical variables are used as inputs for modeling.

Findings

The results showed that RF and XGB were the best performing algorithms, with AUC scores of 99.1 and 99.2%, respectively. Conversely, KNN had the lowest predictive power, scoring 94.4%. Overall, the algorithms predicted that over 60% of the watershed was in the very low flood risk class, while the high flood risk class accounted for less than 15% of the area.

Originality/value

There are limited, if not non-existent studies on modeling using AI tools including ML in the region in predictive modeling of flooding, making this study intriguing.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 August 2018

Yun Zou and Xiaobo Qu

Freeway work zones have been traffic bottlenecks that lead to a series of problems, including long travel time, high-speed variation, driver’s dissatisfaction and traffic…

1898

Abstract

Purpose

Freeway work zones have been traffic bottlenecks that lead to a series of problems, including long travel time, high-speed variation, driver’s dissatisfaction and traffic congestion. This research aims to develop a collaborative component of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) to alleviate negative effects caused by work zones.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed cooperative component is incorporated in a cellular automata model to examine how and to what scale CAVs can help in improving traffic operations.

Findings

Simulation results show that, with the proposed component and penetration of CAVs, the average performances (travel time, safety and emission) can all be improved and the stochasticity of performances will be minimized too.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research that develops a cooperative mechanism of CAVs to improve work zone performance.

Details

Journal of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-9802

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 March 2021

Vicente Ramos, Woraphon Yamaka, Bartomeu Alorda and Songsak Sriboonchitta

This paper aims to illustrate the potential of high-frequency data for tourism and hospitality analysis, through two research objectives: First, this study describes and test a…

1941

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to illustrate the potential of high-frequency data for tourism and hospitality analysis, through two research objectives: First, this study describes and test a novel high-frequency forecasting methodology applied on big data characterized by fine-grained time and spatial resolution; Second, this paper elaborates on those estimates’ usefulness for visitors and tourism public and private stakeholders, whose decisions are increasingly focusing on short-time horizons.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the technical communications between mobile devices and WiFi networks to build a high frequency and precise geolocation of big data. The empirical section compares the forecasting accuracy of several artificial intelligence and time series models.

Findings

The results robustly indicate the long short-term memory networks model superiority, both for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting. Hence, the proposed methodology provides estimates which are remarkably better than making short-time decision considering the current number of residents and visitors (Naïve I model).

Practical implications

A discussion section exemplifies how high-frequency forecasts can be incorporated into tourism information and management tools to improve visitors’ experience and tourism stakeholders’ decision-making. Particularly, the paper details its applicability to managing overtourism and Covid-19 mitigating measures.

Originality/value

High-frequency forecast is new in tourism studies and the discussion sheds light on the relevance of this time horizon for dealing with some current tourism challenges. For many tourism-related issues, what to do next is not anymore what to do tomorrow or the next week.

Plain Language Summary

This research initiates high-frequency forecasting in tourism and hospitality studies. Additionally, we detail several examples of how anticipating urban crowdedness requires high-frequency data and can improve visitors’ experience and public and private decision-making.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 33 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

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