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1 – 10 of over 2000Considering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent…
Abstract
Purpose
Considering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent borrowing because of the impact of COVID 19, this paper aims to examine the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth over time.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a dynamic multivariate autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL)-based Granger-causality model to test the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth [gross domestic product (GDP)]. Annual time-series data that spanned 1978–2018 were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator database and the IMF fiscal Affairs Department Database and WEO.
Findings
The results reveal that public debt has no causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but there is unidirectional Granger causality running from public debt to GDP in the long run. Again, investment spending has a negative bi-directional causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but they have a positive bi-directional causal relationship in the long run. Conversely, no short-run causal relationship exists between government consumption expenditure and GDP but long-run Granger causality runs from government consumption expenditure to GDP. Finally, public debt has a positive impact on the inflation rate in the short run.
Practical implications
The findings imply that government(s) must ensure high fiscal discipline to serve as a precursor for the effective and efficient use of recent borrowing, that is, the loans should be used for highly prioritized projects (preferably investment spending) that are well evaluated and self-sustained to add positively to the GDP.
Originality/value
This paper provides contemporary findings to augment extant literature on public debt and economic growth by using variables and empirical models, which prior studies could not sufficiently cover in a developing country perspective and affirms that public debt contributes to GDP only in the long run.
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Adamu Braimah Abille and Esin Kiliç
The impact of debt on economic growth has attracted immense economic research necessitated by ballooning public debt stock among countries and most of the literature presume a…
Abstract
Purpose
The impact of debt on economic growth has attracted immense economic research necessitated by ballooning public debt stock among countries and most of the literature presume a symmetric relationship between debt and economic growth. However, this study contemplates an asymmetric relationship and thus relies on annual series from 1970 to 2019 to examine the asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth in Ghana.
Design/methodology/approach
The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds approach was employed. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is the dependent variable while public debt and other control variables each decomposed into their positive and negative shocks constitute the independent variables.
Findings
The results reveal that a positive shock to public debt insignificantly impacts the growth of the economy in the short and long runs. Also, a negative shock to public debt exerts significant short-run negative and insignificant long-run positive effects on the growth of the economy. The divergence in the short- and long-run effects on growth of a negative shock to public debt and the general insignificant effects of a positive shock to the same is a glitch that is attributed to overcapitalized loans and poor utilization of credit facilities.
Practical implications
The study recommends “inter alia” that the government of Ghana strengthens the short to medium-term debt management strategies achievable through the enforcement of the Public Financial Management Act (PFMA) Act-921 and the Public Procurement Act (PPA) Act-914 to deal with any adverse effects of debt on the growth of the economy.
Originality/value
The novelty of the current study lies not only in the fact that it captures recent public debt dynamics at a time Ghana faces extreme fiscal constraints and escalating cost of debt servicing but it also does so in an asymmetric environment which is unprecedented an assumption in the analysis of Ghana's public debt–economic growth nexus.
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There exist long-term fluctuations in the process of capital accumulation. The economic long wave is an essential part of research into non-mainstream western economics. After the…
Abstract
Purpose
There exist long-term fluctuations in the process of capital accumulation. The economic long wave is an essential part of research into non-mainstream western economics. After the Second World War, the capitalist world experienced the fourth long wave of expansion and then entered into a downward phase of the long wave in the 1970s. Regarding to whether a new long wave of expansion took place in the 1980s, left-wing scholars hold different viewpoints. The purpose of this paper is to focus on this issue.
Design/methodology/approach
First, based on the review of the long wave history, this paper discusses three kinds of long wave theories with significant influence and puts forward the theoretical framework of analyzing the long wave of capitalist economy. Next, under the guidance of this theoretical framework and in combination with the actual development and evolution of the capitalist economy, the issue of whether the fifth long wave of the capitalist economy began to emerge in the 1980s is discussed deeply.
Findings
This paper argues that, from the early 1980s to 2007, the US-dominated developed countries experienced a new long wave of expansion driven by the information technology revolution, the adjustment of the neoliberalism system and the economic globalization. However, the financial-economic crisis of 2008–2009 led to a new phase of long wave downswing.
Originality/value
This paper does not agree with the single-factor analysis of the intrinsic formation mechanism of economic long wave and sticks to the multi-factor analysis centering on the fluctuation of accumulation rate. It is pointed out that the evolution of the long wave of capitalist economy depends on the combined influence of technology, institutions and market. The study of the long wave of the economy will help us to correctly understand the historical stage and characteristics of the current world capitalist economy in the long-term fluctuations, so that we can make an appropriate and positive response.
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We expand the recent literature on the dynamics of capital structure decisions by investigating the impact of national culture on firms' optimal debt ratios and their dynamic…
Abstract
Purpose
We expand the recent literature on the dynamics of capital structure decisions by investigating the impact of national culture on firms' optimal debt ratios and their dynamic re-adjustment process. To this end, we aim at estimating firm-specific speeds of leverage adjustment, allowing for heterogeneous dynamics in firms' capital structure.
Design/methodology/approach
We use dynamic panel data estimators to analyze the impact of cultural factors on the dynamics of debt ratios.
Findings
We show that national culture affects the optimal level of leverage and the dynamic rebalancing of debt ratios, both directly and indirectly, by altering the effect of firm characteristics and macroeconomic factors on firms' financing behavior. Firms converge faster towards the optimal leverage in countries with a stronger attitude to conform with the norm, while they are slower where there is a higher propensity to intellectual autonomy. A higher risk aversion and long-run propensity induce over-levered firms to reduce leverage faster, making the adjustment process strongly asymmetric. Moreover, national culture also produces indirect effects by mitigating the impact of asymmetric information on capital structure decisions. Indeed, firms in more individualistic countries display a lower speed of adjustment and a stronger effect of firm characteristics associated with higher agency costs. On the contrary, firms in countries with a higher tendency to conform to social norms, less individualistic and more long-term oriented have a higher adjustment speed and appear to suffer less from agency issues. Our results therefore highlight how national culture affects agency problems within firms, thus suggesting the adoption of country-specific corporate governance provisions accounting for the effects of local cultural traits on managers' behavior.
Originality/value
We expand the capital structure and governance literature by showing how cultural traits impact on the dynamics of debt ratios. In particular, we show how cultural traits may mitigate or exacerbate the role of agency issues on firms' behavior, hence suggesting that cultural factors may interact with governance rules in shaping firms' decisions. Therefore, our work highlights how policy-makers should include cultural aspects when defining regulation concerning corporate governance.
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Anna Białek-Jaworska and Agnieszka Krystyna Kopańska
This paper aims to determine whether local governments (LGs) use non-consolidated municipally owned companies (MOCs), excluded from public sector entities and, consequently, from…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to determine whether local governments (LGs) use non-consolidated municipally owned companies (MOCs), excluded from public sector entities and, consequently, from sub-national debt to avoid fiscal debt limits. This paper contributes to the literature by analysing the fiscal debt rule’s impact on the off-budget municipal activities in total and separate in different types of local government units.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses difference-in-differences and the system general method of moments model with the Blundell–Bond estimator for dynamic panel data analysis of MOCs owned by 866 Polish municipalities in 2010–2018.
Findings
This paper shows that the MOCs’ revenues support limited local public debt capacity by indebtedness restrictions imposed on municipalities in 2014. As a result, less indebted municipalities have higher off-budget revenues. The tightening of fiscal rules related to sub-sovereign indebtedness increased off-budget activities, but that effect is much stronger in rural and rural–urban municipalities than in urban municipalities and big cities.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature by exploring the fiscal debt rule’s impact on the off-budget municipal activities in total and separate in different types of local government units. In this paper, the authors combine theories relating to private and public finance; this is a novel approach and one that is also necessary – as, in fact, the worlds of public and private actors intersect – as exemplified by the existence of MOC.
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Robin K. Chou, Kuan-Cheng Ko and S. Ghon Rhee
National cultures significantly explain cross-country differences in the relation between asset growth and stock returns. Motivated by the notion that managers in individualistic…
Abstract
National cultures significantly explain cross-country differences in the relation between asset growth and stock returns. Motivated by the notion that managers in individualistic and low uncertainty-avoiding cultures have a higher tendency to overinvest, this study aims to show that the negative relation between asset growth and stock returns is stronger in countries with such cultural features. Once the researchers control for cultural dimensions, proxies associated with the q-theory, limits-to-arbitrage, corporate governance, investor protection and accounting quality provide no incremental power for the relation between asset growth and stock returns across countries. Evidence of this study highlights the importance of the overinvestment hypothesis in explaining the asset growth anomaly around the world.
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Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide and Andrew Maredza
This study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.
Findings
The study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.
Originality/value
The study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.
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This paper aims to unravel the puzzle that the United Kingdom’s high-quality government accounting and fiscal architecture is associated with low-quality outcomes, including poor…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to unravel the puzzle that the United Kingdom’s high-quality government accounting and fiscal architecture is associated with low-quality outcomes, including poor productivity growth, high public debt, public services which do not meet citizen expectations and historically high levels of taxation. It contributes to public sector accounting research in the fields of fiscal transparency and governance.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses Miller and Power’s (2013) economization framework and Dunsire’s (1990) concept of collibration to explain why being a global leader in public sector accounting reform and in fiscal and monetary architecture has not protected the UK from weak governance. The intersection of economization’s roles of accounting with modes of government accounting clarifies the puzzle.
Findings
Whereas accruals government accounting contributes to fiscal transparency, this is not a sufficient condition for well-judged policy and its effective application. Collibration is the dominant mechanism for mediation in the fiscally centralized UK, but it has failed to deliver stable outcomes, in part because Parliament is limited in its ability to hold back inappropriate behaviour by the Executive. Subjectivization has disrupted adjudication because governments at all levels resist constraints on their behaviour, with unpredictable and often damaging consequences.
Originality/value
This paper provides insights through the combined lens of economization and modes of government accounting, demonstrating the practical value of this conceptualization. Although some causes for unsatisfactory outcomes are specific to the UK, there are cautions for accounting and fiscal reformers in other countries, such as Member States of the European Union.
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Wilkista Lore Obiero and Seher Gülşah Topuz
This study aims to determine whether there is an effect of internal and public debt on income inequality in Kenya for the period 1970–2018.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to determine whether there is an effect of internal and public debt on income inequality in Kenya for the period 1970–2018.
Design/methodology/approach
The relationship is examined by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Toda Yamamoto causality by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).
Findings
Our findings suggest that both internal and public debt harm inequality in Kenya in the long term. Furthermore, a one-way causality from internal debt to income inequality is also obtained while no causality relationship is found to exist between public debt and income inequality. Based on these findings, the study recommends that to reduce income inequality levels in Kenya, other methods of financing other than debt financing should be preferred because debt financing is not pro-poor.
Originality/value
This study is unique based on the fact that no previous paper has analysed the debt and inequality relationship in Kenya. To the best of our knowledge, this will be the first study to analyse the applicability of redistribution effect of debt in Kenya. The study is also different in that it provides separate analysis for public debt and internal debt on their effects on income inequality.
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