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Article
Publication date: 4 January 2023

Shilpa Sonawani and Kailas Patil

Indoor air quality monitoring is extremely important in urban, industrial areas. Considering the devastating effect of declining quality of air in major part of the countries like…

Abstract

Purpose

Indoor air quality monitoring is extremely important in urban, industrial areas. Considering the devastating effect of declining quality of air in major part of the countries like India and China, it is highly recommended to monitor the quality of air which can help people with respiratory diseases, children and elderly people to take necessary precautions and stay safe at their homes. The purpose of this study is to detect air quality and perform predictions which could be part of smart home automation with the use of newer technology.

Design/methodology/approach

This study proposes an Internet-of-Things (IoT)-based air quality measurement, warning and prediction system for ambient assisted living. The proposed ambient assisted living system consists of low-cost air quality sensors and ESP32 controller with new generation embedded system architecture. It can detect Indoor Air Quality parameters like CO, PM2.5, NO2, O3, NH3, temperature, pressure, humidity, etc. The low cost sensor data are calibrated using machine learning techniques for performance improvement. The system has a novel prediction model, multiheaded convolutional neural networks-gated recurrent unit which can detect next hour pollution concentration. The model uses a transfer learning (TL) approach for prediction when the system is new and less data available for prediction. Any neighboring site data can be used to transfer knowledge for early predictions for the new system. It can have a mobile-based application which can send warning notifications to users if the Indoor Air Quality parameters exceed the specified threshold values. This is all required to take necessary measures against bad air quality.

Findings

The IoT-based system has implemented the TL framework, and the results of this study showed that the system works efficiently with performance improvement of 55.42% in RMSE scores for prediction at new target system with insufficient data.

Originality/value

This study demonstrates the implementation of an IoT system which uses low-cost sensors and deep learning model for predicting pollution concentration. The system is tackling the issues of the low-cost sensors for better performance. The novel approach of pretrained models and TL work very well at the new system having data insufficiency issues. This study contributes significantly with the usage of low-cost sensors, open-source advanced technology and performance improvement in prediction ability at new systems. Experimental results and findings are disclosed in this study. This will help install multiple new cost-effective monitoring stations in smart city for pollution forecasting.

Details

International Journal of Pervasive Computing and Communications, vol. 20 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1742-7371

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2023

Jueshuai Wang

This paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China.

Design/methodology/approach

This article introduces the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China into a comprehensive global forecasting model, analyzing the impact of liquidity management in G3 economies on nine key macroeconomic variables in China.

Findings

The findings reveal that the liquidity management strategies employed by major economies do exert a certain influence on China's major macroeconomic variables. Different types of liquidity shocks elicit varying effects. Monetary shocks exhibit the strongest instantaneous impact, while credit conditions and policy rate shocks contribute more significantly to China's long-term macroeconomic fluctuations. However, no single shock stands out as the dominant factor.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to expand the GPM model developed by the International Monetary Fund and build a GPM4 model including China, the United States of America, the Eurozone and Japan. For the first time, the GPM model was used to analyze the spillover effects of liquidity management in major economies on China's macroeconomy and revealed the impact of non-price factors such as credit conditions on China's macroeconomic variables.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 March 2024

Hatice Merve Yanardag Erdener and Ecem Edis

Living walls (LWs), vegetated walls with an integrated growth layer behind, are being increasingly incorporated in buildings. Examining plant characteristics’ comparative impacts…

Abstract

Purpose

Living walls (LWs), vegetated walls with an integrated growth layer behind, are being increasingly incorporated in buildings. Examining plant characteristics’ comparative impacts on LWs’ energy efficiency-related thermal behavior was aimed, considering that studies on their relative effects are limited. LWs of varying leaf albedo, leaf transmittance and leaf area index (LAI) were studied for Antalya, Turkey for typical days of four seasons.

Design/methodology/approach

Dynamic simulations run by Envi-met were used to assess the plant characteristics’ influence on seasonal and orientation-based heat fluxes. After model calibration, a sensitivity analysis was conducted through 112 simulations. The minimum, mean and maximum values were investigated for each plant characteristic. Energy need (regardless of orientation), temperature and heat flux results were compared among different scenarios, including a building without LW, to evaluate energy efficiency and variables’ impacts.

Findings

LWs reduced annual energy consumption in Antalya, despite increasing energy needs in winter. South and west facades were particularly advantageous for energy efficiency. The impacts of leaf albedo and transmittance were more significant (44–46%) than LAI (10%) in determining LWs’ effectiveness. The changes in plant characteristics changed the energy needs up to ca 1%.

Research limitations/implications

This study can potentially contribute to generating guiding principles for architects considering LW use in their designs in hot-humid climates.

Originality/value

The plant characteristics’ relative impacts on energy efficiency, which cannot be easily determined by experimental studies, were examined using parametric simulation results regarding three plant characteristics.

Details

Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-124X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2022

Awel Haji Ibrahim, Dagnachew Daniel Molla and Tarun Kumar Lohani

The purpose of this study is to address a highly heterogeneous rift margin environment and exhibit considerable spatiotemporal hydro-climatic variations. In spite of limited…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to address a highly heterogeneous rift margin environment and exhibit considerable spatiotemporal hydro-climatic variations. In spite of limited, random and inaccurate data retrieved from rainfall gauging stations, the recent advancement of satellite rainfall estimate (SRE) has provided promising alternatives over such remote areas. The aim of this research is to take advantage of the technologies through performance evaluation of the SREs against ground-based-gauge rainfall data sets by incorporating its applicability in calibrating hydrological models.

Design/methodology/approach

Selected multi satellite-based rainfall estimates were primarily compared statistically with rain gauge observations using a point-to-pixel approach at different time scales (daily and seasonal). The continuous and categorical indices are used to evaluate the performance of SRE. The simple scaling time-variant bias correction method was further applied to remove the systematic error in satellite rainfall estimates before being used as input for a semi-distributed hydrologic engineering center's hydraulic modeling system (HEC-HMS). Runoff calibration and validation were conducted for consecutive periods ranging from 1999–2010 to 2011–2015, respectively.

Findings

The spatial patterns retrieved from climate hazards group infrared precipitation with stations (CHIRPS), multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) and tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates are more or less comparably underestimate the ground-based gauge observation at daily and seasonal scales. In comparison to the others, MSWEP has the best probability of detection followed by TRMM at all observation stations whereas CHIRPS performs the least in the study area. Accordingly, the relative calibration performance of the hydrological model (HEC-HMS) using ground-based gauge observation (Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency criteria [NSE] = 0.71; R2 = 0.72) is better as compared to MSWEP (NSE = 0.69; R2 = 0.7), TRMM (NSE = 0.67, R2 = 0.68) and CHIRPS (NSE = 0.58 and R2 = 0.62).

Practical implications

Calibration of hydrological model using the satellite rainfall estimate products have promising results. The results also suggest that products can be a potential alternative source of data sparse complex rift margin having heterogeneous characteristics for various water resource related applications in the study area.

Originality/value

This research is an original work that focuses on all three satellite rainfall estimates forced simulations displaying substantially improved performance after bias correction and recalibration.

Details

World Journal of Engineering, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1708-5284

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2024

Xinyu Dong, Cleopatra Veloutsou and Anna Morgan-Thomas

Negative brand engagement represents a pervasive and persistent feature of interactivity in online contexts. Although existing research suggests that consumer negativity is…

Abstract

Purpose

Negative brand engagement represents a pervasive and persistent feature of interactivity in online contexts. Although existing research suggests that consumer negativity is potentially more impactful or detrimental to brands than its positive counterpart, few studies have examined negative brand-related cognitions, feelings and behaviours. Building on the concept of brand engagement, this study aims to operationalise negative online brand engagement.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents the results of nine studies that contributed to the development and validation of the proposed scale. Building on the concept of engagement, Studies 1–3 enhanced the construct conceptualisation and generated items. Study 4 involved validation with an academic expert panel. The process of measure operationalisation and validation with quantitative data was completed in Studies 5–8. Finally, the scale's nomological validity was assessed in Study 9.

Findings

The results confirm the multidimensional nature of negative online brand engagement. The validated instrument encompasses four dimensions (cognition, affection, online constructive behaviour and online destructive behaviour), captured by 17 items.

Originality/value

Progress in understanding and dealing with negative online brand engagement has been hampered by disagreements over conceptualisation and the absence of measures that capture the phenomenon. This work enhances managerial understanding of negativity fostering strategies that protect brand engagement and improve firm performance.

Details

Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-7122

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 August 2023

Michele Bufalo and Giuseppe Orlando

This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Design/methodology/approach

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Findings

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

Research limitations/implications

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

Practical implications

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

Social implications

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

Originality/value

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

设计/方法/方法

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

目的

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

研究结果

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

研究局限/启示

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

实际意义

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

社会影响

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创意/价值

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Diseño/metodología/enfoque

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

Objetivo

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Resultados

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

Limitaciones/implicaciones de la investigación

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

Implicaciones prácticas

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

Implicaciones sociales

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

Originalidad/valor

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2024

Jonathan Mukiza Kansheba, Clavis Nwehfor Fubah and Mutaju Isaack Marobhe

Despite the popularity of the entrepreneurial ecosystem (EE) concept, research on its value-adding activities receives less attention. Thus, in this article, the authors…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the popularity of the entrepreneurial ecosystem (EE) concept, research on its value-adding activities receives less attention. Thus, in this article, the authors investigate the role of EEs in supporting global value chain (GVC) activities.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) technique to identify practical configurations of EE’s framework and systemic conditions spurring GVC activities in 80 countries.

Findings

The findings suggest different configurations of EE`s framework and systemic conditions necessary for various GVC activities regarding input-output structure, geographical scope, upgrading, and forward and backward participation.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the extant literature by pioneering the EE approach to explaining GVC development. Moreover, the findings provide novel insights for understanding the EE – GVC interplay. As a result, the study offers a more nuanced understanding of how the EE supports GVC activities.

Details

International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior & Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-2554

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 July 2023

Mark R. Mallon and Stav Fainshmidt

Because family businesses are highly complex enterprises, researchers need appropriate theoretical and methodological tools to study them. The neoconfigurational perspective and…

Abstract

Purpose

Because family businesses are highly complex enterprises, researchers need appropriate theoretical and methodological tools to study them. The neoconfigurational perspective and its accompanying method, qualitative comparative analysis, are particularly well suited to phenomena characterized by complex causality, but their uptake in family business research has been slow and fragmented. To remedy this, the authors highlight their unique ability to address research questions for which other approaches are not well suited and discuss how they might be applied to family business phenomena.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors introduce the core tenets of the neoconfigurational perspective and how its set-theoretic epistemology differs from traditional approaches to theorizing and analysis. The authors then use a dataset of family firms to present a primer on conducting qualitative comparative analysis and interpreting the results.

Findings

The authors find that family firm resources can be combined in multiple ways to affect business survival, suggesting that resources are substitutable and complementary. The authors discuss how the unique features of the neoconfigurational approach, namely equifinality, conjunctural causation and causal asymmetry, can be fruitfully applied to break new ground in scholarly understanding of family businesses.

Originality/value

This article allows family business researchers to apply the neoconfigurational approach without first having to consult multiple and disparate sources often written for other disciplines. This article explicates how to leverage the theoretical and empirical advantages of the neoconfigurational approach in the context of family businesses, supporting a more widespread adoption of the neoconfigurational perspective in family business research.

Article
Publication date: 21 June 2023

Wen-Shiung Huang, Yung-Sen Lin and Chiung-Lin Tsao

Based on the mentoring literature, this study aims to explore the mentoring functions developed by the travel industry and develop a multiple mentoring function scale (MMFS) for…

Abstract

Purpose

Based on the mentoring literature, this study aims to explore the mentoring functions developed by the travel industry and develop a multiple mentoring function scale (MMFS) for tour leaders.

Design/methodology/approach

Study One of this research involved in-depth interviews with 23 tour leaders for establishing the initial question bank and pilot test scale. In Study Two, the initial scale was pilot tested by 225 tour leaders for identifying the factor structure through exploratory factor analysis. In Study Three, the model was verified through confirmatory factor analyses of 251 calibration samples. In Study Four, cross-validation was verified by 227 validation samples.

Findings

In Study One, through the content analyses, an initial question bank of 51 questions was established. The question bank was reviewed by 15 experts, resulting in the development of a pilot test scale of 36 questions. In Study Two, 16 questions were retained after the initial scale was pilot tested, and four dimensions were identified, including career competency, reverse mentoring, career development and psychosocial functions. In Study Three, the model was verified through confirmatory factor analyses and confirmed to have good reliability and construct validity. Finally, a first-order, four-factor scale that consisted of 16 questions was established. In Study Four, cross-validation was verified.

Research limitations/implications

MMFS establishment underwent a rigorous development process, and the scale’s reliability and validity are supported. It is suggested that future research should develop and construct a multifunctional model for tour-leading professionals based on the MMFS to evaluate the long-term impact of the MMFS.

Originality/value

Previous studies have mainly focused on typical mentoring functions. Multiple mentoring functions derived from the characteristics of tour leaders and guides have rarely been discussed. This research can fill the gap in the application of mentoring system to human resource management research in the tourism industry. As a result, this four-dimensional multiple mentoring functions scale provides a progressive perspective and be regarded as the first version of the scale development in the tourism industry.

研究目的

基于师徒文献, 本研究探讨了旅游业的师徒功能, 并为旅游领队发展多元师徒功能量表(MMFS)。

设计/方法/途径

研究一, 涉及与 23 位领队的深度访谈, 以建立初始题库和预试量表。研究二, 初始量表由225名领队进行试测, 通过探索性因素分析确定因素结构。研究三, 通过验证性因素分析251个校准样本以验证模型。研究四, 由 227 个验证样本进行复合效化。

结果

研究一, 经过内容分析, 建立了51道题的初始题库。初始题库由 15 位专家审阅, 最终形成36 个问题的预试量表。研究二, 预试量表进行预试后, 保留了16个问题, 确定了四个构面, 包括职业能力、反向师徒、职业发展和社会心理功能。研究三, 通过验证性因素分析对模型进行验证, 证实具有良好的信度和建构效度。建立了一个由 16 个题项所组成的一阶四因素量表。研究四, 复合效化获得验证。

原创性/价值

过往的研究主要集中在典型的师徒功能上。很少有人讨论基于领队和导游的特点而衍生出的多元师徒功能。本研究填补了师徒制在旅游行业人力资源管理研究中的应用空白。因此, 这四个构面的多元师徒功能量表提供了一个渐进的视角, 被视为量表发展的旅游业第一版。

研究限制和意义

MMFS的建立经历了严格的开发过程, 量表的信度和效度得到支持。建议未来的研究应基于 MMFS开发和建构旅游领队专业人士的多元功能模型, 以评估MMFS 的后续影响。

Objetivo

Basándose en la bibliografía sobre la mentoría, este estudio exploró las funciones de mentoría desarrolladas por el sector de los viajes y elaboró una escala de funciones de mentoría múltiple (MMFS) para guías y jefes de grupo turísticos.

Diseño/metodología/enfoque

En el Estudio Uno de esta investigación se realizaron entrevistas en profundidad a 23 guías turísticos para establecer el banco de preguntas inicial y la escala de prueba piloto. Estudio Dos, la escala inicial fue sometida a una prueba piloto por 225 guías de tours para identificar la estructura factorial mediante un análisis factorial exploratorio. Estudio Tres, el modelo se verificó mediante análisis factoriales confirmatorios 251 muestras de calibración. En el Estudio Cuatro, la validación cruzada se verificó mediante 227 muestras de validación.

Resultados

Estudio Uno: a través de los análisis de contenido, se estableció un banco de preguntas inicial de 51 preguntas. El banco de preguntas fue revisado por 15 expertos, lo que dio lugar a la elaboración de una escala de prueba piloto de 36 preguntas. Estudio Dos, se retuvieron 16 preguntas, tras la prueba piloto de la escala inicial, y se identificaron cuatro dimensiones, que incluían la competencia profesional, la mentoría inversa, el desarrollo profesional y las funciones psicosociales. Estudio Tres, el modelo se verificó mediante análisis factoriales confirmatorios y se confirmó que tenía una buena fiabilidad y validez de constructo. Por último, se estableció una escala de primer orden y cuatro factores que constaba de 16 preguntas. En el Estudio Cuatro, se verificó la validación cruzada.

Originalidad/valor (límite 100 palabras)

Los estudios anteriores se han centrado principalmente en las funciones típicas de la mentoría. Rara vez se han tratado las funciones múltiples de mentoría derivadas de las características de los guías y jefes de grupo turísticos. Esta investigación puede llenar el vacío existente en la aplicación del sistema de mentoría a la investigación de la gestión de recursos humanos en la industria turística. Como resultado, esta escala de funciones de mentoría múltiple de cuatro dimensiones proporciona una perspectiva progresista y puede considerarse como la primera versión del desarrollo de la escala en la industria turística.

Limitaciones/implicaciones de la investigación (límite 100 palabras)

El establecimiento de la MMFS se sometió a un riguroso proceso de desarrollo, y la fiabilidad y validez de la escala están respaldadas. Se sugiere que en futuras investigaciones se desarrolle y construya un modelo multifuncional para guías profesionales de turismo basado en la MMFS para evaluar el impacto a largo plazo de la MMFS.

Article
Publication date: 11 October 2023

Yuhong Wang and Qi Si

This study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the Interaction Effect Grey Power Model of N Variables (IEGPM(1,N)) is developed, and the Dragonfly algorithm (DA) is used to select the best power index for the model. Specific model construction methods and rigorous mathematical proofs are given. In order to verify the applicability and validity, this paper compares the model with the traditional grey model and simulates the carbon emission intensity of China from 2014 to 2021. In addition, the new model is used to predict the carbon emission intensity of China from 2022 to 2025, which can provide a reference for the 14th Five-Year Plan to develop a scientific emission reduction path.

Findings

The results show that if the Chinese government does not take effective policy measures in the future, carbon emission intensity will not achieve the set goals. The IEGPM(1,N) model also provides reliable results and works well in simulation and prediction.

Originality/value

The paper considers the nonlinear and interactive effect of input variables in the system's behavior and proposes an improved grey multivariable model, which fills the gap in previous studies.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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