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Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Gaetano Lisi

This study deals with the main issues concerning the interplay between homeownership and labour market outcomes, namely (1) the relation between homeownership and labour market…

Abstract

Purpose

This study deals with the main issues concerning the interplay between homeownership and labour market outcomes, namely (1) the relation between homeownership and labour market outcomes, at both the individual level and the aggregate level, and (2) the relation between homeownership and human capital.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is both theoretical and empirical. A search and matching model of the labour market is developed to explain the strong relation between mortgage markets and wages. A regional panel analysis in Italy is used to verify the interplay between homeownership and wages.

Findings

Homeownership is not, by itself, a condition for receiving higher wages, but rather higher wages increase the probability to become a homeowner, since they positively affect the probability of acquiring a mortgage from the bank. Eventually, wages cause homeownership, but the reverse may not be true.

Research limitations/implications

The paper focuses on the labour market, while the housing market model is restricted to the mortgage market.

Practical implications

The positive effect of homeownership on wages is hard to theoretically formalise and is not empirically proven. Before investigating a (potential) bidirectional relationship between homeownership and labour market outcomes, therefore, the related literature should assume a new theoretical link between homeowners and wages.

Social implications

The result that “homeownership is not, by itself, a condition for receiving higher wages” has positive implications for human and social development. If homeownership could lead to better labour market outcomes, indeed, socio-economic inequalities would increase in the society, because homeownership would be the starting point of a “lucky” circle that increases the well-being of people who are already wealthy.

Originality/value

First, this study clearly explains why the microeconomic result that homeowners are more likely to be employed than tenants is consistent – at the aggregate level – with a negative relation between homeownership and better labour market outcomes. Second, the related literature has largely ignored the social implications of the topic. A potential bidirectional relation between homeownership and (better) labour market outcomes, indeed, could imply an increase in the well-being of people who are already wealthy.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 March 2023

N.T. Khuong Truong, Susan J. Smith, Gavin Wood, William A.V. Clark, William Lisowski and Rachel Ong ViforJ

The purpose of this paper is to consider one test of a well-functioning housing system – its impact on wellbeing. Exploring one indicator of this, this study aims to track changes…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to consider one test of a well-functioning housing system – its impact on wellbeing. Exploring one indicator of this, this study aims to track changes in mental and general health across a mix of tenure transitions and financial transactions in three jurisdictions: Australia, the UK and the USA.

Design/methodology/approach

Using matched variables from three national panel surveys (Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia, British Household Panel Survey/Understanding Society and Panel Study of Income Dynamics) over 17 years (2000–2017) to capture the sweep of the most recent housing cycle, this study adopts a difference-in-difference random-effects model specification to estimate the mental and general health effects of tenure change and borrowing behaviours.

Findings

There is an enduring health premium associated with unmortgaged owner-occupation. Mortgage debt detracts from this, as does the prospect of dropping out of ownership and into renting. A previously observed post-exit recovery in mental health – a debt-relief effect – is not present in the longer run. In fact, in some circumstances, both mental and general health deficits are amplified, even among those who eventually regain homeownership. Though there are cross-country differences, the similarities across these financialised housing systems are more striking.

Practical implications

The well-being premium traditionally associated with owner occupation is under threat at the edges of the sector in all three jurisdictions. In this, there is cross-national convergence. There may therefore be scope to introduce policies to better support households at the edges of ownership that work across the board for debt-funded ownership-centred housing systems.

Originality/value

This paper extends the duration of a previous analysis of the impact of tenure transitions and financial transactions on well-being at the edges of ownership in the UK and Australia. The authors now track households over nearly two decades from the start of the millennium into a lengthy (post-global financial crisis) era of declining housing affordability. This study adds to the reach of the earlier study by adding a general health variable and a third jurisdiction, the USA.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 August 2023

Javed Iqbal, Jeff Brdedthauer and Christopher S. Decker

This study aims to identify the determinants of housing affordability in an effort to inform policy.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify the determinants of housing affordability in an effort to inform policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use econometric analysis to determine variables that impact housing affordability in the USA.

Findings

The authors find that affordability depends on a number of demographic factors as well as physical characteristics of properties, including average age of homeowner, family size and average dwelling square footage. The authors also find that vacancy rates, increase in house price and median family income also have a significant impact on housing affordability. Additionally, the authors find that households with high-cost burdens are more vulnerable to mortgage rates and property taxes than those with moderate-cost burdens. As a result, changes in economic or policy variables tend to have a disproportionate impact on high-cost-burdened households, and they are more vulnerable to economic and policy shocks.

Originality/value

To date, the literature has not done a systematic investigation of housing affordability using detailed census data.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 May 2023

Ahmed Shoukry Rashad and Mahmoud Farghally

The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has…

Abstract

Purpose

The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has been associated with the decline in housing prices across the globe. There are two main channels through which the US monetary policy may affect the real estate market in the dollar-pegged countries: the cost of serving mortgages (financing cost) and the exchange rate channel (for example, the appreciation of the US dollar and consequently the local currency). The exchange rate channel, which involves the appreciation of the US dollar and the subsequent effect on the local currency, is particularly significant in the case of Dubai, given how international the housing market in Dubai and might be viewed as a tradable good. Using recent data, the purpose of this study to evaluate the spillover impact of the US monetary policy on the housing market performance in the dollar-pegged countries using Dubai as a case study.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, this study collected unique longitudinal data on the volume of the monthly transactions of residential properties and performs a panel-data analysis using within-variation models. The changes in the interest rate policy in the USA are determined by the domestic inflation in the USA, thereby, representing an exogenous shock in the UAE.

Findings

The results are robust to different specifications and suggest that a strong negative correlation between the interest rate in the USA and the housing sector demand in Dubai. Fiscal policy measures can be taken to mitigate tighter financial conditions in case of policy misalignment.

Originality/value

Few studies have looked at the spillover impact of the global monetary conditions on the real estate market in the GCC region. This study fills this gap by exploring the impact of the US financial conditions on Dubai’s real estate, using panel data analysis.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Salvador Cruz Rambaud and Paula Ortega Perals

The framework of this paper is financial mathematics and, more specifically, the control of data fraud and manipulation with their subsequent economic effects, namely, in…

Abstract

Purpose

The framework of this paper is financial mathematics and, more specifically, the control of data fraud and manipulation with their subsequent economic effects, namely, in financial markets. The purpose of this paper is to calculate the global loss or gain, which supposes, for the borrower, a change of the interest rate while the contracted loan is in force or, in another case, the loan has finished.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology used in this work has been, in the first place, a review of the existing literature on the topic of manipulability and abusiveness of the loan interest rates applied by banks; in the second place, the introduction of a mathematical-financial analysis to calculate the interests paid in excess; and, finally, the compilation of several sentences issued on the application of the so-called mortgage loan reference index (MLRI) to mortgage loans in Spain.

Findings

There are three main contributions in this paper. First, the calculation of the interests paid in excess in the amortization of mortgage loans referenced to an overvalued interest rate. Second, an empirical application shows the amount to be refunded to a Spanish consumer when amortizing his/her mortgage loan referenced to the MLRI instead of the Euro InterBank Offered Rate (EURIBOR). Third, consideration has been made to the effects and the possible solutions to the legal problems arising from this type of contract.

Research limitations/implications

This research is a useful tool capable of implementing the financial calculation needed to find out overpaid interests in mortgage loans and to execute the sentences dealing with this topic. However, a limitation of this study is the lack of enough sentences on mortgage loans referenced to the MLRI to get some additional information about the number of borrowers affected by these legal sentences and the amount refunded by the financial institutions.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that deviations in the payment of interests have been calculated when amortizing a mortgage.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 February 2024

Rosli Said, Mardhiati Sulaimi, Rohayu Ab Majid, Ainoriza Mohd Aini, Olusegun Olaopin Olanrele and Omokolade Akinsomi

This study aims to address the critical need for innovative financing solutions in the global housing sector, focusing specifically on Malaysia’s distinct housing finance system…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to address the critical need for innovative financing solutions in the global housing sector, focusing specifically on Malaysia’s distinct housing finance system encompassing both conventional and Islamic loans. The primary objective is to develop a transformative housing finance model that addresses affordability challenges and reshapes the Malaysian housing landscape.

Design/methodology/approach

The study presents an alternate housing finance model for Malaysia, integrating lower monthly payments and reduced household debt. Key variables include house price appreciation rates, interest rates, initial guarantee fees and loan-to-value ratios. Inspired by the Help to Buy (HTB) scheme, the model aligns with proven global initiatives for enhanced affordability, balancing payment amounts, loan interest rates and acceptable price thresholds.

Findings

The study’s findings promise to address affordability disparities and reshape Malaysia’s housing finance landscape. The emphasis is on introducing a structured repayment plan that offers a sustainable path to homeownership, particularly for low-income families. Incorporating the future value adaptation concept, inspired by reverse mortgages and Islamic finance, enhances adaptability, ensuring long-term sustainability despite economic shifts.

Practical implications

The proposed model promotes widespread access to homeownership, offering practical solutions for policymakers to improve affordability, prompting adaptable risk management strategies for financial institutions and empowering potential homebuyers with increased flexibility.

Originality/value

The study introduces a transformative housing finance model for Malaysia, merging elements from reverse mortgages, Islamic finance and the HTB scheme, offering potential applicability to similar systems globally.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2023

Masatomo Suzuki and Chihiro Shimizu

This study aims to investigate the relationship between market share and rent levels to understand the supply structure in the Japanese private rental housing market.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the relationship between market share and rent levels to understand the supply structure in the Japanese private rental housing market.

Design/methodology/approach

The study calculates the municipal-level market share of a dominant rental housing operator in Japan and ascertained the overall market rent and the dominant operator’s rent premium at the municipal level by using a major web portal’s listing data of rental houses.

Findings

The study shows that, as market share increased, overall market rent tends to decrease, and analyzed by market share, there is no significant difference between the rent of the dominant operator and the overall market rent.

Practical implications

The results of the study suggest that dominant operators may have lowered the rent of their own property to prioritize filling vacancies, which, in turn, causes the overall level of market rent to decline. This is an outcome of rental housing operators’ strategy to maximize long-term rental income under sublease contracts with individual owners, which ensures stable rental income for owners regardless of the occupation status of the apartments.

Originality/value

Previous research on regional monopolies in mortgage sales and brokerage businesses in the USA implies that rental housing operators in a position of great influence over the market can control and keep the market rents at high levels, that is, at large costs for consumers. The findings of the study are novel in showing the inverse relationship in the Japanese private rental market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 September 2023

Paul Chinedu Okey

The purpose of this paper is to assess the long-run and short-run drivers of real house prices in Nigeria from 1991Q1 to 2020Q4.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the long-run and short-run drivers of real house prices in Nigeria from 1991Q1 to 2020Q4.

Design/methodology/approach

Vector autoregression and cointegration tests were used to assess the key drivers of Nigeria’s real house prices in the long run and short run.

Findings

The empirical findings revealed that household disposable income is the most important determinant of house prices in Nigeria. House prices increased by 1.6% and 60.8% in response to a 1% increase in disposable income in the long run and short run, respectively, while real mortgage credits pushed up house prices by 5% and have no long-run effects, suggesting that most Nigerians depend on their money income rather than credits in securing a home. In addition, prices of oil sector products and real interest rates had negative and significant relationship with house prices, while positive correlations were found for real effective exchange rate and real housing investments regardless of the time horizon. The impact of construction costs and cement prices was also documented.

Originality/value

This is likely a pioneering study of its kind to focus on the determinants of real house prices in Nigeria. It is probably the first study, the best of the author’s knowledge, to empirically examine the impact of the oil sector on house prices in the country.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Omokolade Akinsomi, Mustapha Bangura and Joseph Yacim

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of…

Abstract

Purpose

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of two-speed economies in some countries, such as South Africa. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of mining activities on house prices. This intends to understand the direction of house price spreads and their duration so policymakers can provide remediation to the housing market disturbance swiftly.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigated the effect of mining activities on house prices in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1 and deploying an auto-regressive distributed lag model.

Findings

In the short run, we found that changes in mining activities, as measured by the contribution of this sector to gross domestic product, impact the housing price of mining towns directly after the first quarter and after the second quarter in the non-mining cities. Second, we found that inflationary pressure is instantaneous and impacts house prices in mining towns only in the short run but not in the long run, while increasing housing supply will help cushion house prices in both submarkets. This study extended the analysis by examining a possible spillover in house prices between mining and non-mining towns. This study found evidence of spillover in housing prices from mining towns to non-mining towns without any reciprocity. In the long run, a mortgage lending rate and housing supply are significant, while all the explanatory variables in the non-mining towns are insignificant.

Originality/value

These results reveal that enhanced mining activities will increase housing prices in mining towns after the first quarter, which is expected to spill over to non-mining towns in the next quarter. These findings will inform housing policymakers about stabilising the housing market in mining and non-mining towns. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to measure the contribution of mining to house price spillover.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 April 2024

Askar Choudhury

The COVID-19 pandemic, a sudden and disruptive external shock to the USA and global economy, profoundly affected various operations. Thus, it becomes imperative to investigate the…

Abstract

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic, a sudden and disruptive external shock to the USA and global economy, profoundly affected various operations. Thus, it becomes imperative to investigate the repercussions of this pandemic on the US housing market. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a crucial facet of the real estate market: the Time on the Market (TOM). Therefore, this study aims to ascertain the net effect of this unprecedented event after controlling for economic influences and real estate market variations.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly time series data were collected for the period of January 2010 through December 2022 for statistical analysis. Given the temporal nature of the data, we conducted the Durbin–Watson test on the OLS residuals to ascertain the presence of autocorrelation. Subsequently, we used the generalized regression model to mitigate any identified issues of autocorrelation. However, it is important to note that the response variable derived from count data (specifically, the median number of months), which may not conform to the normality assumption associated with standard regression models. To better accommodate this, we opted to use Poisson regression as an alternative approach. Additionally, recognizing the possibility of overdispersion in the count data, we also explored the application of the negative binomial model as a means to address this concern, if present.

Findings

This study’s findings offer an insightful perspective on the housing market’s resilience in the face of COVID-19 external shock, aligning with previous research outcomes. Although TOM showed a decrease of around 10 days with standard regression and 27% with Poisson regression during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is noteworthy that this reduction lacked statistical significance in both models. As such, the impact of COVID-19 on TOM, and consequently on the housing market, appears less dramatic than initially anticipated.

Originality/value

This research deepens our understanding of the complex lead–lag relationships between key factors, ultimately facilitating an early indication of housing price movements. It extends the existing literature by scrutinizing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the TOM. From a pragmatic viewpoint, this research carries valuable implications for real estate professionals and policymakers. It equips them with the tools to assess the prevailing conditions of the real estate market and to prepare for potential shifts in market dynamics. Specifically, both investors and policymakers are urged to remain vigilant in monitoring changes in the inventory of houses for sale. This vigilant approach can serve as an early warning system for upcoming market changes, helping stakeholders make well-informed decisions.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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