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1 – 10 of over 3000Mayank Joshipura and Sangeeta Wats
Over the past three decades, numerous conceptual and empirical studies have discussed momentum investment strategies’ presence, pervasiveness and persistence. However, science…
Abstract
Purpose
Over the past three decades, numerous conceptual and empirical studies have discussed momentum investment strategies’ presence, pervasiveness and persistence. However, science mapping in the field is inadequate. Hence, this study aims to comprehend and explore current dynamics, understand knowledge progression, elicit trends through thematic map analysis, synthesize knowledge structures and provide future research directions in this domain.
Design/methodology/approach
The study applies bibliometric analysis on 562 Scopus indexed articles from 1986 to 2021. Biblioshiny version 3.1.4, a Web-based application included in Bibiliometrix package developed in R-language (Aria and Cuccurullo, 2017), was used to examine: the most prominent articles, journals, authors, institutions and countries and to understand the thematic evolution and to elicit trends through the synthesis of knowledge structures including conceptual, intellectual and social structures of the field.
Findings
Motor themes, basic transverse, niche and emerging and declining themes were identified using (Callon, 1991) strategic thematic map. Besides, four major clusters based on a cocitation network of documents were identified: empirical evidence and drivers of momentum returns, theories explaining momentum returns and implications for asset pricing and market efficiency, avoiding momentum crashes and momentum in alternative asset classes, alternative explanations for momentum returns. The study infers that momentum research is becoming multidisciplinary given the dominance of behavioral theories and economic aspects in explaining the persistence of momentum profits and offers future research directions.
Research limitations/implications
The study deploys bibliometric analysis, appropriate for deriving insights from the vast extant literature. However, a meta-analysis might offer deeper insights into specific dimensions of the research topic. Besides, the study’s findings are based on Scopus indexed articles analyzed using bibilioshiny; the database and software limitations might have affected the findings.
Practical implications
The study is a ready reckoner for scholars who intend to recognize the evolution of momentum investment strategies, current dynamics and future research direction. The study offers practitioners insights into efficiently designing and deploying momentum investment strategies and ways to avoid momentum crashes.
Social implications
The study offers insights into the irrational behavior and systematic errors committed by market participants that helps regulators and policymakers to direct investors’ educational efforts to minimize systematic behavioral errors and related adverse financial consequences.
Originality/value
This comprehensive study on momentum investment strategies evaluates research trends and current dynamics draws a thematic map, knowledge progression in the field and offers future research directions.
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James R. DeLisle and Terry V. Grissom
The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the commercial real estate market dynamics as a function of and conditional to the shifts in market state-space environment…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the commercial real estate market dynamics as a function of and conditional to the shifts in market state-space environment that can influence agent responses.
Design/methodology/approach
The analytical design uses a comparative computational experiment to address the performance of property assets in the current market based on comparison with prior structural patterns. The latent variables developed across market sectors are used to test agent behavior contingent on the perspectives of capital asset pricing conditionals (CAPM) and a behavioral momentum/herd construct. The state-space momentum analysis can assist the comparative analysis of current levels and shifts in property asset performance given the issues that have arisen with the financial crisis of 2007-2009.
Findings
An analytic approach is employed framed by a situation-dependent model. This frame considers risk profiles characterizing the perspectives and preferences guiding a delineated market state. This perspective is concerned with the possibility of shifts in market momentum and representativeness conditioning investor expectations. It is observed that the current market (post-crisis) has changed significantly from the prior operations (despite the diversity observed in prior market states). The dynamics of initial findings required an additional test anchored to the performance of the general capital market and the real economy across time. This context supports the use of a modified CAPM model allowing the consideration of opportunity cost in a space-time dynamic anchored with the consideration of equity, debt, riskless asset and liquidity options as they varied for the representative agents operating per market state.
Research limitations/implications
This paper integrates neoclassical and behavioral economic constructs. Combines asset pricing with prospect theory and allows the calculation of endogenous time-preferences, risk attitudes and formulation and testing of hyperbolic discounting functions.
Practical implications
The research shows that market structure and agent behavior since the financial crisis has changed from the investment and valuation perspectives operating as observed and measured from 1970 up to 2007. In contradiction to the long-term findings of Reinhart and Rogoff (2008), but in compliance with common perspectives and decision heuristics often employed by investors, this time things have changed! Discounting and expected rates of return are dynamic and are hyperbolic and not constant. Returns and investment for property assets are situational (market state-space specific) and offer a distinct asset class, not appropriately estimated by many of the traditional financial models.
Social implications
Assist in supporting insights to measure in errors and equations that result in inefficient resource allocation and beta discounting that supports the financial crisis created by assets subject to long-term decision needs (delta function).
Originality/value
The paper offers a combination and comparison of neoclassic asset pricing using a modified CAPM (two-pass) approach within the structural frame of Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory. This technique allows the consideration of the effects of present bias, beta-delta functions and the operation of the Allais Paradox in market states that are characterized by gains and losses and thus risk aversion and risk seeking behavior. This ability for differentiation allows for the development of endogenous time-preferences and hyperbolic discounting factors characteristic of commercial property investment.
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Anastasios G. Malliaris and Ramaprasad Bhar
The equity premium of the S&P 500 index is explained in this paper by several variables that can be grouped into fundamental, behavioral, and macroeconomic factors. We hypothesize…
Abstract
The equity premium of the S&P 500 index is explained in this paper by several variables that can be grouped into fundamental, behavioral, and macroeconomic factors. We hypothesize that the statistical significance of these variables changes across economic regimes. The three regimes we consider are the low‐volatility, medium‐volatility, and high‐volatility regimes in contrast to previous studies that do not differentiate across economic regimes. By using the three‐state Markov switching regime econometric methodology, we confirm that the statistical significance of the independent variables representing fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and a behavioral variable changes across economic regimes. Our findings offer an improved understanding of what moves the equity premium across economic regimes than what we can learn from single‐equation estimation. Our results also confirm the significance of momentum as a behavioral variable across all economic regimes
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Sanjay Sehgal and Vibhuti Vasishth
– The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the profitability of investment strategies based on past price changes and trading volumes.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the profitability of investment strategies based on past price changes and trading volumes.
Design/methodology/approach
Data are employed from January 1998 to December 2011 for select emerging markets. Portfolios are formed on the basis of past information on prices and/or volumes. Unrestricted and risk adjusted returns for sample portfolios are analyzed. The risk models employed in study are Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama-French (F-F) Model and Fama-French augmented models.
Findings
Price momentum patterns are observed for Brazil, India, South Africa and South Korea, while there are reversals in Indonesia and China. Low-volume stocks outperform high-volume stocks for all sample countries except China. Further, volume and price based bivariate strategies do a better job than univariate strategies in case of India, South Africa and South Korea. The past price and volume patterns in stock returns are not fully explained by CAPM as well as the F-F Model. Price and volume momentum factors do play a role in explaining some of these return patterns. Finally, the unexplained returns seem to be an outcome of investor under or overreaction to past information. The sources of price and volume momentum seem to be partly risk based and partly behavioral.
Originality/value
The study analyzes combined role of price and volume in portfolio formation with post holding analysis. The work is useful for global portfolio managers, policy makers, market regulators and the academic community. The study contributes to asset pricing and behavioral finance literature for emerging markets.
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This paper participates in the debate on market efficiency and correct approach for asset pricing through a comprehensive review of literature in favor, as well as against the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper participates in the debate on market efficiency and correct approach for asset pricing through a comprehensive review of literature in favor, as well as against the long held belief of market efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to understand emerging trends in behavioral finance and establish its future potential as a mainstream alternative theory of asset pricing.
Design/methodology/approach
The review and discussion of literature is mainly divided into three different sections that are –theories supporting efficient market hypothesis (EMH); studies providing evidences from the stock market on the failure of EMH and studies on behavioral finance, discussing separately investors’ behavioral biases keeping in mind their effect on stock prices; and providing empirical evidences on the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices.
Findings
The review of literature from both the point of views has helped in understanding the market efficiency issue and changing dynamics of asset pricing approach. This is achieved by highlighting the gaps in the concept of market efficiency and also suggesting how these gaps can be bridged with a superior approach such as behavioral finance. Through further discussion of emerging trends in behavioral finance, the paper also points out gaps and how these can be abridged, for behavioral finance to be accepted as a mainstream alternative approach to EMH.
Originality/value
This is an extensive and one of a kind study that discusses market efficiency through discussion of EMH and behavioral finance side by side. With the help of such a study, researchers can precisely understand the need and can focus on the future course of action to make behavioral finance a mainstream approach to asset pricing.
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Momentum is an unresolved puzzle for the financial economists. The purpose of this paper is to dissect the sources of momentum profits and investigate the possible role played by…
Abstract
Purpose
Momentum is an unresolved puzzle for the financial economists. The purpose of this paper is to dissect the sources of momentum profits and investigate the possible role played by the macro-economic variables in explaining them.
Design/methodology/approach
The data for 493 companies that form part of Bombay Stock Exchange 500 index in India is used for calculating 6-6 momentum profits. Profits from the strategy are regressed on Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Fama-French (FF) model to see whether they can explain these profits. Guided by prior research, three methodologies are used to see the possible role played by macro-economic variables in explaining momentum payoffs.
Findings
The empirical results show that momentum profits are persistent in the intermediate horizon. CAPM and FF three-factor model fail to explain these returns. Price momentum seems to be explained in one of the model by lagged macro-economic variables which lend an economic foundation to the Carhart factor. The “Winner minus Loser” factor explains about 37 percent of abnormal returns on the winner portfolio that are missed by the FF model. The unexplained momentum profits seem to be an outcome of investors’ over-reaction to past information. Hence, the sources of price momentum profits seem to be partially behavioral and partially rational.
Practical implications
The failure of risk models in fully explaining the momentum profits may be good news for portfolio managers who are looking out for stock market arbitrage opportunities.
Originality/value
This paper fulfills an identified need to study the sources behind price momentum profits in Indian context.
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– The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-term prior return patterns in stock returns for India.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-term prior return patterns in stock returns for India.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology involves portfolio generation based on company characteristics and long-term prior return (24-60 months). The characteristic sorted portfolios are then regressed on risk factors using one factor (capital asset pricing model (CAPM)) and multi-factor model (Fama-French (FF) model and four factor model involving three FF factors and an additional sectoral momentum factor).
Findings
After controlling for short-term momentum (up to 12 months) as documented by Sehgal and Jain (2011), the authors observe that weak reversals emerge for the sample stocks. The risk model CAPM fails to account for these long-run prior return patterns. FF three-factor model is able to explain long-term prior return patterns in stock returns with the exception of 36-12-12 strategy. The value factor plays an important role while the size factor does not explain cross-section of average returns. Momentum patterns exist in long-term sector returns, which are stronger for long-term portfolio formation periods. Further, the authors construct sector factor and observe that prior returns patterns in stock returns are partially absorbed by this factor.
Research limitations/implications
The findings are relevant for investment analysts and portfolio managers who are continuously tracking global markets, including India, in pursuit of extra normal returns.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the asset pricing and behavioral literature from emerging markets.
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Leilei Shi, Xinshuai Guo, Andrea Fenu and Bing-Hong Wang
This paper applies a volume-price probability wave differential equation to propose a conceptual theory and has innovative behavioral interpretations of intraday dynamic market…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper applies a volume-price probability wave differential equation to propose a conceptual theory and has innovative behavioral interpretations of intraday dynamic market equilibrium price, in which traders' momentum, reversal and interactive behaviors play roles.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors select intraday cumulative trading volume distribution over price as revealed preferences. An equilibrium price is a price at which the corresponding cumulative trading volume achieves the maximum value. Based on the existence of the equilibrium in social finance, the authors propose a testable interacting traders' preference hypothesis without imposing the invariance criterion of rational choices. Interactively coherent preferences signify the choices subject to interactive invariance over price.
Findings
The authors find that interactive trading choices generate a constant frequency over price and intraday dynamic market equilibrium in a tug-of-war between momentum and reversal traders. The authors explain the market equilibrium through interactive, momentum and reversal traders. The intelligent interactive trading preferences are coherent and account for local dynamic market equilibrium, holistic dynamic market disequilibrium and the nonlinear and non-monotone V-shaped probability of selling over profit (BH curves).
Research limitations/implications
The authors will understand investors' behaviors and dynamic markets through more empirical execution in the future, suggesting a unified theory available in social finance.
Practical implications
The authors can apply the subjects' intelligent behaviors to artificial intelligence (AI), deep learning and financial technology.
Social implications
Understanding the behavior of interacting individuals or units will help social risk management beyond the frontiers of the financial market, such as governance in an organization, social violence in a country and COVID-19 pandemics worldwide.
Originality/value
It uncovers subjects' intelligent interactively trading behaviors.
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Antonis Ballis and Thanos Verousis
The present study sets out to examine the empirical literature on the behavioural aspects of cryptocurrencies, showing the findings of related studies and discussing the various…
Abstract
Purpose
The present study sets out to examine the empirical literature on the behavioural aspects of cryptocurrencies, showing the findings of related studies and discussing the various results. A systematic literature review of cryptocurrencies in behavioural finance seems to be timely and particularly important in terms of providing a guide for future research. Key topics include an extent review on the issue of herding behaviour amongst cryptocurrencies, momentum effects and overreaction, contagion effect, sentiment and uncertainty, along with studies related to investment decision-making, optimism bias, disposition, lottery and size effects.
Design/methodology/approach
Systematic literature review.
Findings
A systematic literature review of cryptocurrencies in behavioural finance seems to be timely and particularly important in terms of providing a guide for future research. Key topics include an extent review on the issue of herding behaviour amongst cryptocurrencies, momentum effects and overreaction, contagion effect, sentiment (investor's, market's) and uncertainty, along with studies related to investment decision-making, optimism bias, disposition, lottery and size effect.
Originality/value
The authors' survey paper complements recent papers in the area by offering a systematic account on the influence of behavioural factors on cryptocurrencies. Further, this study's purpose is not just to index the relevant literature, but rather to showcase and pinpoint several research areas that have emerged in the field of behavioural cryptocurrency research. For all these reasons, a systematic literature review of cryptocurrencies in behavioural finance seems to be timely and particularly important.
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The empirical studies have indicated that the information uncertainty is one of the reasons leading to the momentum effect in the stock market. Based on this conclusion, the…
Abstract
Purpose
The empirical studies have indicated that the information uncertainty is one of the reasons leading to the momentum effect in the stock market. Based on this conclusion, the concept of “information uncertainty” is deepened into the concept hierarchy of “information ambiguity,” the purpose of this paper is to explain the momentum effect in the China’s stock market from information ambiguity.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the information ambiguity, the paper puts forward two hypotheses, portfolio analysis and cross-sectional regression analysis method were used to empirically test these hypothesis based on the weekly data.
Findings
The empirical results support the two hypotheses.
Originality/value
Finally, the paper discusses the importance from ambiguity to understand financial anomalies, such as momentum effect.
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