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Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Martin Amsteus

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.

Design/methodology/approach

An evolutionary perspective is deployed to specify the presumed relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance measures. A positive relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance is proposed. The hypothesis is tested through Spearman's rho, on Swedish managers, and firms in the computer programming industry. Managers' foresight as well as performance is assessed as indexes.

Findings

The paper finds a moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers' foresight and firm performance.

Research limitations/implications

There is support for the theoretical relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance. There is a strong rationale for further studies.

Originality/value

The paper provides empirical evidence regarding the importance of managerial foresight for firm performance.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Article
Publication date: 22 February 2011

Martin Amsteus

This paper aims to develop and assess an instrument measuring managerial foresight.

1852

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to develop and assess an instrument measuring managerial foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper outlines the construction and estimation of the instrument through a seven‐step process. A total of 57 preliminary Likert items were developed based on an extant review and synthesis of definitions of foresight. The items were assessed through interviews and pre‐testing. A preliminary instrument was administered to a selection of managers. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were employed to assess sub‐scales and model fit. The instrument was evaluated in terms of reliability and validity.

Findings

The study demonstrates a valid and reliable 12 Likert item scale for measuring managerial foresight.

Research limitations/implications

Managerial foresight can now be assessed and tested for association with, for example, managerial or organizational performance variables.

Practical implications

Managers can now be assessed and compared in terms of foresight.

Originality/value

In developing and estimating an instrument for measuring managerial foresight, the paper advances foresight into a quantitatively measurable concept.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Sheila Moorcroft

365

Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Paul Davis and Neil Pyper

– This paper aims to take a new look at how scenarios are produced and used. It does so from a perspective that is unusual in the field: network pragmatism.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to take a new look at how scenarios are produced and used. It does so from a perspective that is unusual in the field: network pragmatism.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper takes a conceptual approach.

Findings

A network pragmatist account allows scenarios to play an important role in actions designed to secure specific futures for organisations. It, thus, endows them with micro-political force. Any scenario that fails to exert this force will wither and, ultimately, die, but it can be resuscitated. With its demise in the networked world, a scenario can assume a more partial and private existence, shaping the affections, loyalties and actions of notable individuals.

Research limitations/implications

This approach generates novel propositions that question the adequacy of currently dominant cognitive theories. However, it has yet to be tested empirically.

Originality/value

Pragmatist reading of scenarios that is proposed is not only distinct but also only ever partial. This work emphasises that a holistic account of scenario lives needs multiple theoretical perspectives.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Konstantin Vishnevskiy, Dirk Meissner and Oleg Karasev

The aim of this paper is to develop a specific strategic foresight methodology and integrate this into roadmapping which is suitable for corporations. To date, reasonable…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to develop a specific strategic foresight methodology and integrate this into roadmapping which is suitable for corporations. To date, reasonable practical experience has been accumulated, but there is a lack of a comprehensive conceptual approach for using strategic foresight and roadmapping to solve management problems.

Design/methodology/approach

This approach integrates corporate strategic foresight and roadmapping in several stages. During the foresight phase, the authors create scenarios of long-term development determined by long-term macro trends and challenges to identify “points of growth” and system of priorities for company growth. A strategic roadmap enables the company to form a “corridor” for specific projects and create a long-term action plan to implement the priorities identified in the first phase. Using a project roadmap makes it possible to ensure the implementation of a specific project, defining a system of goals, the necessary measures, their timing and financing, as well as indicators to assess their effectiveness.

Findings

The core result of the suggested methodology is a set of possible trajectories of innovation development, reflecting the whole technological chain involving R & D – technology – product – market. Each path involves a sequence of organizational actions and key decision-making points that are necessary to be taken to introduce new technological solutions and develop innovation products with new features to the customer/user. These routes support decision-making in such fields as the choice of the product line, establishment of new partnerships with developers of innovation technologies, decisions regarding “insourcing-outsourcing” and the requirements for relevant scientific and technological breakthroughs. It allows corporations to create strategies for commercializing innovation products.

Originality/value

The methodology proposes to integrate the results of foresight studies and in roadmaps and finally in business planning, adopting innovative strategies and management decisions. It contributes to the development of common principles and approaches to the subject, while taking account of company-specific features that can significantly affect the decision-making mechanism. The methodology is applicable to foreign and Russian companies when creating innovative strategies and management decisions based on the results of foresight.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 February 2008

Martin Amsteus

The purpose of this paper is to establish what foresight is, to review past usages and definitions of foresight and to synthesize them into one generic definition, in order to

2194

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish what foresight is, to review past usages and definitions of foresight and to synthesize them into one generic definition, in order to make the concept measurable.

Design/methodology/approach

A discussion on how to classify variables in the social sciences serves as the starting‐point. Next, a review of past definitions and usages of the concept foresight is followed by further analysis and then synthesizing of the generic definition. The generic definition is finally compared and contrasted with the related concepts of forecasting, strategic analysis, and intuition.

Findings

Foresight is defined as behavior along three dimensions: degree of analyzing present contingencies and degree of moving the analysis of present contingencies across time; degree of analyzing a desired future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies under control; and degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to arrive at the desired future state.

Research limitations/implications

The article makes foresight quantitatively measurable, which in turn makes it possible to empirically measure the existence of foresight among managers and to test the relationship between foresight and organizational performance.

Practical implications

Practical foresight tools and programs, etc. can now be assessed and compared by both practitioners and researchers.

Originality/value

In identifying three fundamental behavioral dimensions of foresight, the article conceives and advances foresight as a distinct concept that can be related to several research areas, both on individual (e.g. managerial) and organizational levels.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Rebecca Wayland

– The purpose of this research is to explore the nature of change and the practices of foresight required to anticipate and to plan for change.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to explore the nature of change and the practices of foresight required to anticipate and to plan for change.

Design/methodology/approach

Part I provides a sketch of investigations of change and related areas of uncertainty and discontinuity. Part II provides a conceptual framework outlining four types of change: incremental, contextual, structural and foundational. Part III outlines the methodological distinctions required to explore the four types of change characterized here as normal and extraordinary foresight. Part IV combines these examinations to develop a structured approach to scenario analysis. Finally, Part V examines the implications of this work.

Findings

A structured approach to scenario planning explores four variations of evolutionary and revolutionary changes. It applies both normal and extraordinary foresight to explore the epistemological and ontological boundaries of change and to analyze the impact of shifts in ontological boundaries. While a structured approach applies established tools and techniques, it also directs our attention to areas where we can do more. It is an integral part of strategic foresight in a changing world.

Research limitations/implications

This is a conceptual article based on over 25 years of practice in corporate strategy, including 10 years of work in scenario planning. It is also drawn from doctoral research on the epistemological and ontological boundaries of paradigms (Wayland, 2003), as outlined in Thomas S. Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn and Hacking, 2012).

Originality/value

Recent work examining the epistemological and ontological boundaries of change are linked with a practical framework and methodological distinction. These contributions are combined with a structured approach to scenario planning to improve the ability to anticipate and to plan for change.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

David Hartmann and Christopher Stillings

This paper aims to describe the context and relevance of strategic foresight in the chemical industry. By using a case study of a multinational chemical company, the authors…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to describe the context and relevance of strategic foresight in the chemical industry. By using a case study of a multinational chemical company, the authors intend to show how global organizations use scenario planning as part of their strategic planning processes. Concentrating on scenario planning for regional strategies, the authors want to contribute to best practice of scenario methodology and ideally inspire academic research.

Design/methodology/approach

Reviewing the literature of scenario planning and strategy elaboration, the authors focus on the Hax strategy process of strategy formation, as been applied in the case study’s company. They explain the scenario creation process in detail using a concrete example of India. The outcomes of the scenario creation process are then linked to the Hax strategy process’s description, to identify where scenario planning has created concrete value. Finally, the authors describe lessons learnt and list best practices for practitioners.

Findings

Based on the analysis, the authors argue that scenario processes add value when embedded in established strategic planning processes. Lessons learned include among others that it is beneficial that the participants creating the scenarios are also those who join the strategy elaboration and that significant effort needs to go into systematically translating scenarios into implications for the organization.

Originality/value

This designed case study is based on the experience of 17 process iterations during a period of five years with over 170 participants during which the core scenario process moderator team did not change.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

John Michael Schmidt

The purpose of this paper is to propose a low-cost, high return model for implementing a programmatic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s…

2495

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a low-cost, high return model for implementing a programmatic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence (or policy research) functions. Focusing on government agencies, especially those supporting liberal democratic governments, the purpose of the current paper is to propose a new, practical, low-cost and high-return model for implementing a programmatic strategic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence functions. The paper describes the relevant organizational considerations and options for structural adjustments, and suggests how the proposed model can maximize decision-making effectiveness without disrupting pre-existing structures, operations and products. The paper further discusses the necessity and involvement of a central government foresight agency and a non-hierarchical distributed network linking the foresight units.

Design/methodology/approach

Possible solutions are considered with respect to costs of development and implementation, risk (likelihood, consequence and uncertainty) of the new function’s failure, direct negative or positive effect on the performance of existing functions, the level of cross-organizational involvement in or collaboration with the new function, the level of cross-organization tangible benefits and the level of vertical involvement, especially at the executive level.

Findings

With few exceptions, the implementation of foresight by governments has not been at all methodical, but has followed many different paths, where it has occurred at all. The approach proposed in this paper – establishing a central foresight agency, propagating individual agency-based small programmatic foresight units and virtual teams and creating a non-hierarchical distributed network to link all of them – appears to best meet the success criteria set out in the paper.

Research limitations/implications

Governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies that have previously shied away from methodically implementing strategic foresight or that have attempted to do so without real success now have an approach that is likely to produce the desired results.

Practical implications

The paper creates a sound framework for governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies to consider and proceed with the implementation of foresight functions and networks to support them.

Originality/value

The proposed approach is entirely new and generally challenges current practices.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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