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The purpose of this research is to explore the nature of change and the practices of foresight required to anticipate and to plan for change.

Part I provides a sketch of investigations of change and related areas of uncertainty and discontinuity. Part II provides a conceptual framework outlining four types of change: incremental, contextual, structural and foundational. Part III outlines the methodological distinctions required to explore the four types of change characterized here as normal and extraordinary foresight. Part IV combines these examinations to develop a structured approach to scenario analysis. Finally, Part V examines the implications of this work.

A structured approach to scenario planning explores four variations of evolutionary and revolutionary changes. It applies both normal and extraordinary foresight to explore the epistemological and ontological boundaries of change and to analyze the impact of shifts in ontological boundaries. While a structured approach applies established tools and techniques, it also directs our attention to areas where we can do more. It is an integral part of strategic foresight in a changing world.

This is a conceptual article based on over 25 years of practice in corporate strategy, including 10 years of work in scenario planning. It is also drawn from doctoral research on the epistemological and ontological boundaries of paradigms (Wayland, 2003), as outlined in Thomas S. Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn and Hacking, 2012).

Recent work examining the epistemological and ontological boundaries of change are linked with a practical framework and methodological distinction. These contributions are combined with a structured approach to scenario planning to improve the ability to anticipate and to plan for change.

This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.

This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.

In the current business world, things seldom remain the same for long. Globalization and relentless technological development ensure that change is both inevitable and ongoing. As a result, the only real predictable aspect of the future is its unpredictability. The uncertainty inherent in drastic change is the source of both risk and opportunity alike. How to minimize the former and fully exploit the latter is a burning issue facing organizations today. Finding ways to effectively manage uncertainty is therefore likely to be high on the agenda for most leaders. Those with the capacity to engage in strategic foresight are arguably best positioned to meet the challenges facing them.

The paper provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world’s leading organizations.

The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

PDM, the brainchild of the booming sixties has grown into a vital cost‐saving factor in the sober seventies. A recent national conference held by the Centre for Physical Distribution Management examined many aspects of the role RDM plays in the economy today. We publish here two of the papers read at that conference. The first by J.M. Williams of NMHC looks at the concept of materials management drawing considerably from the US experience and urges less theory and more practical implementation of modern distribution techniques. The second paper by B.W. Ancsell of Rank Radio International lucidly describes just what can go wrong when those techniques are implemented without sufficient forethought.

This paper aims to present an exploration of recent work in complexity theory to explain why and how disruptive events happen in systems and how responses could be better, particularly in the policy‐making arena.

The main method applied is critical thinking combined with a review of selected aspects of complexity theory and a general experience of applying foresight. Several new and practical implications for foresight techniques and their application are derived. Promoting variation is examined as one way to make policies more resilient in a complex system.

Complexity science demonstrates that disruptive events do not need an associated trigger, as they are a normal part of a complex system. This insight implies that if we are always looking for weak signals we will certainly be caught unawares.

The assumption that disruptive events can be managed by planning and forecasting is not a workable option. Instead, policy making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place. Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence and to provide capabilities such as reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives, including those considered impossible now.

Although neither complexity theory nor the concept of reframing is new in the area of foresight, the derivation of practical implications for foresight techniques is original.

A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by the author during the introduction of foresight into the formal strategic planning of a public‐sector university in Australia. The framework recognises several distinct phases, leading from the initial gathering of information, through to the production of outputs intended as input into the more familiar activities of strategy development and strategic planning. The framework is also useful as a diagnostic tool for examining how foresight work and strategy are undertaken, as well as a design aid for customised foresight projects and processes. Some observations and reflections are made on lessons learned from a two‐and‐a‐half year engagement as an organisationally‐based foresight practitioner.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the research and literature through the development of the theme of competence foresight. In addition, the aim is to construct information pathways for the foresight mechanism, for the use of practitioners, to enable them to manage talent and competences with an anticipatory perspective.

The research strategy is theoretical research with interpretive concept analysis approach. The research compares, compiles and combines theories and perspectives of strategic human resource management and development, talent management, competence management and foresight.

The results combine the information pathways and elements of the pathways for the competence foresight mechanism. The main three pathways in the mechanism are the pathways for detecting the needed competences for strategy implementation, the pathways for detecting rapid changes and the loss of competences.

As talent management frameworks are organization specific, so are the mechanisms and information pathways for competence foresight. The results can be adjusted and developed to fit into other organizations.

The analysis and results provide the practitioners in human resources with new perspectives to use systematic foresight processes in talent management and development. The results can also be used for modelling the information pathways for the competence foresight mechanism in talent management software.

The research on human resources development and talent management does not deal with competence foresight. This paper addresses this deficiency and brings new, valuable perspectives of foresight and future studies for researchers and practitioners. This paper challenges further research on various aspects of competence foresight.

Global economies are involved with enormous activities of internationalization that provide pure and untapped opportunities for entrepreneurs and businesses to place and promote their products.

The authors applied structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis with the partial least squares (PLS), conducting an empirical analysis of data from 28 European countries.

The results reveal that the higher level of education/knowledge in a country enhances the foresight competencies of entrepreneurs and that they both have a positive influence on the effective business creation. The findings of this paper also stress on the positive relationship between the effect of business creation and international intensity in economy level.

The limitation of this study lies in the impossibility of obtaining a larger and more complete data. Consequently, this study uses national-level data from 28 European countries, which makes the sample too small. In addition, although innovation is one of the driving factors in both internationalization and entrepreneurship, because of the limitation, it has not been considered in this study.

The authors assert that countries, specifically European nations studied in this research, can improve their employment rate and value creation (through their products in international markets) by giving a special attention to the entrepreneurial-oriented human capitals.

This research warns policymakers that they can have a serious contribution in promoting (international) entrepreneurship. They should draw a rigorous plan for formal and informal educational systems that effectively develops essential knowledge for launching new businesses and fosters the innovation and entrepreneurship.

This study set out to improve the understanding of the role of level of education/knowledge and foresight competencies, as the elements of human capitals, on international entrepreneurship.

Over the past seven years within a small, liberal arts (LA) Canadian university, significant paradigm shifts in students’ programmatic choices have occurred reflecting student preference for business-related programs versus traditional LA offerings. Grounded in strategic foresight (SF) practices, this paper aims to investigate drivers of declining traditional LA enrolment that are currently a boon for management studies, positing implications for long-term futures of the LA Academy.

This paper lays out foundational research exploring phenomena in the academy, including disruptive forces, and explores how SF can clarify and shape long-term choices. Seeking to answer what paradigm-shifting forces really mean for the future of the academy, a case study approach is used to interpret disruptions to a Canadian institution facing present challenges and an uncertain future. Scenarios are developed for the broader academy using an environmental understanding to better inform predictive actions envisioned in academic institutional future planning.

The outcome of this research, including four scenarios, will be used to better understand student and stakeholder motivations informing future academic planning. As institutional paradigms appear resistant to change, these foresight-inspired findings are valuable considerations for institutional administrators, particularly those at stressed organizations facing unsettling realities.

The case study identifies that for the LA Academy, myriad future unknowns exist, including its continued existence in today’s form. Institutions are generally unresponsive to the precursors of future change and are not systematically exploring future options.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.

An evolutionary perspective is deployed to specify the presumed relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance measures. A positive relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance is proposed. The hypothesis is tested through Spearman's rho, on Swedish managers, and firms in the computer programming industry. Managers' foresight as well as performance is assessed as indexes.

The paper finds a moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers' foresight and firm performance.

There is support for the theoretical relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance. There is a strong rationale for further studies.

The paper provides empirical evidence regarding the importance of managerial foresight for firm performance.

The purpose of this paper is to examine and explain the role of foresight in government, while making an attempt to ascertain why foresight is both necessary and rare. The paper aims to identify main areas where foresight is needed as well as the constraints that it faces. It also aims to provide some prescriptions and recommendations for improving both system and process.

The methodology is based on case studies and literature search on futures/forecasting. Furthermore, analysis and observations are based on the author's own participation in different governmental and research environments; in several academic circles; within “think tanks” and on the international circuit (mostly at the UN, NATO, IAEA, IIASA and OECD) as well as within the Scandinavian scene.

Several methodologies and techniques that are identified here may allow people to help perceive, evaluate and control the effects of their actions, present as well as future. However, they have, so far, only been used spasmodically. One reason for this state of affairs is that the difference between “well‐structured” (normal) and “ill‐structured” (futures type)problems has not been properly identified or satisfactorily solved. The political system faces three major problems: the problem of competence; the problem of deliverability; and the problem of legitimacy. All of these can be helped by the understanding and application of proper foresight methods and techniques.

From the design/methodology point of view, this paper draws on the combined sources of international practice and theoretical implications. Its findings are easily comprehended and hence useful for their practical application for decision making on global as well as regional problems. The concept of fully “learning to unlearn” is of primary importance, as well as that of not “discounting the future”, for which several methods and techniques have been analyzed and suggested.