Enacting a new approach to scenario analysis: the potential of a pragmatist account

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to take a new look at how scenarios are produced and used. It does so from a perspective that is unusual in the field: network pragmatism.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper takes a conceptual approach.

Findings

A network pragmatist account allows scenarios to play an important role in actions designed to secure specific futures for organisations. It, thus, endows them with micro-political force. Any scenario that fails to exert this force will wither and, ultimately, die, but it can be resuscitated. With its demise in the networked world, a scenario can assume a more partial and private existence, shaping the affections, loyalties and actions of notable individuals.

Research limitations/implications

This approach generates novel propositions that question the adequacy of currently dominant cognitive theories. However, it has yet to be tested empirically.

Originality/value

Pragmatist reading of scenarios that is proposed is not only distinct but also only ever partial. This work emphasises that a holistic account of scenario lives needs multiple theoretical perspectives.

Citation

Davis, P. and Pyper, N. (2015), "Enacting a new approach to scenario analysis: the potential of a pragmatist account", Foresight, Vol. 17 No. 5, pp. 427-443. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2014-0060